Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow

Israel will retaliate, if Iran send troops into Syria

Israel biggest enemy in the Middle East is Hezbollah. The Shia organization Hezbollah is much stronger, well armed and much better trained than the Sunni organization Hamas, in Gaza. Hezbollah is part of the Assad-Iran alliance and are armed by Iran. According to our analyst the Iran-Israel controversy is all about Hezbollah. A Nuclear Iran could arm Hezbollah with impunity. Israel will regard Iran’s armed forces in Syria as covert support for Hezbollah. Iranian troops at Israels Northern border will be unacceptable for the rulers in Tel Aviv, it will provoke a military reaction from Israel.

The situation in Syria is changing rapidly. Starting a full-blown war with the Kurds, Turkey signaled the US and its allies that it is not on the same footing. This summer it seems that the US succeeded in convincing the Turks to join the fight against the so called “terrorists”. Also round this time the US was given permission to use the Incirlik air base in Turkey and Turkey joined in preparing for the fight against the so called “terrorists”. The US was completely surprised when it turned out the Turkish definition of “terrorist” did not square with the US definition. After the announcement of the joined anti-terrorist operations, US diplomats were humiliated and embarrassed as Turkey directly went after the US-European main ally; the Kurd’s. Being completely in line with our expectation, Ankara’s definition of “terrorists” includes the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Democratic Union Party (PYD). Since summer 2014 the Kurd’s could be considered Europe’s and the US’s most valuable ally. It looks like the US planners lack complete understanding of the situation.

Since the US and the West in 2014 quit their support for the FSA (Syrian jihadists) the objectives in Syria became unclear. We guess the goal of the US is to restore the sovereignty in Iraq; in Syria the objectives are less clear. An outright defeat of the jihadists would be a victory for Assad and its ally Hezbollah, a situation unacceptable for Turkey, Saudi Arabia as well as for Israel.
Many western analysts overlooked the fact that Israel is actively supporting jihadists groups as Al Nusra and Al Qaeda. Israel’s biggest enemy in the region is still Hezbollah. The Israeli Iranian conflict is all about Iran’s support of Hezbollah; Israel regards Hezbollah as the proxy army of Iran.

During the end of 2013, just after Putin prevented Obama giving aerial support to the jihadists in Syria, things looked extremely worrisome for Israel. In the beginning of 2014, with the Shiite Maliki in Baghdad, Assad gaining ground in Syria, Israel was confronted with a powerful coalition that effectively rules from Tehran up to the Adriatic Sea and Israel’s border. Many policy makers and analyst overlooked the fact that this is completely unacceptable for the people who decide in Tel Aviv.

With the emergence of ISIS in 2014 the security situation improved dramatically for Israel. The Sunni jihadists never pose a thread to Israel while at the same time they drastically weaken the Assad regime and more importantly Hezbollah. During the last period, Israel has attacked Hezbollah on several occasions and Assad in support of the jihadist’s factions in Syria. Assad adversaries are even brought in from Syria and treated in Israeli hospitals.

Just as Turkey has signaled its game over for the US, NATO and Europe, the Russians took the opportunity to enter the theater. US’s reaction on Russian anti ISIS operations brings the Pentagon again, in an impossible position. In the past year the Western media has done everything possible to convince the public, that ISIS is the worst and most dangerous terrorist organization ever. Confronted with an inhuman enemy of an epic proportion the US granted itself the right to operate in Syria ignoring all international laws. This simple narrative now backfires and makes it hard to denounce Russian actions in Syria that operates on request of the current “legitimate” government in Damascus.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US objectives are still to dispose of Assad. The most likely of intentions from the US is preservation of Iraq as a nation and to redraw the political landscape in Syria.

Now there are strong rumors Russia is not interested in preserving the status quo. They seems to be determined to expel ISIS from Syria and coordinating there actions with Iran, Assad and probably Hezbollah. There are rumors that Iran is preparing to support Assad with “boots on the ground”. It is far from sure that the Iranian-Russian plan will succeed, as it seems the Iranian backed militias are not able to retake control of the Iraqis cities Ramadia and Falujah.

Without a doubt the rearming of Hezbollah and the appearance of Iranian forces at Israeli’s border; is completely unacceptable for Israel. Inspired by Turkey in realizing that the Pentagon and Washington have lost all credibility, we expect Israel will take their own measures in the days that come.

Israelis action could be limited to attacks on Iranian troops in Syria but we will not exclude that there will be an Israeli warning delivered at Tehran’s door-step. Israel will make it clear that it will not accept Iranian troops in Syria and will do whatever it takes to make this clear to the Iranian leaders. If Iranian troops really do appear in Syria; an Israeli attack on Iran would be extremely likely and could add more violence and chaos to the region.

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