Recently the news about the assassination of Colonel Ivan Voronych from Ukraine’s SBU in Kiev, on July 10, has made the headlines. Several hours later the Ukraine authorities said the men suspected of killing Colonel Ivan Voronych were liquidated. The assassination was caught on surveillance cameras. Colonel Ivan Voronych, who commanded a special operations unit, was hit by a few bullets, almost point blank. What does that event imply?
If it was Russia’s FSB (Federal Security Service or Федеральная служба безопасности) who were behind the assassination, then it means that they have very good intelligence inside Ukraine’s SBU (Sluzhba bezpeky Ukrainy or Служба безпеки України). They must have one or a few moles providing them with the necessary data about the individual officers and their responsibilities. Surely, the man earmarked for liquidation was selected with a purpose: Colonel Ivan Voronych may have been a mastermind behind some of the attacks within Russia. If that is the case, then Ukrainian officers – especially those responsible for actions in Russia – might become a bit nervous. Suspicion in their ranks has certainly crept in, while countermeasures are certainly being taken.
The assassination might also trigger a series of similar events. Up to now it seems that Russia has exercised restraint when it comes to hitting the commanders and leaders. That may have changed and so we are in to witness more actions like that. If so, then it might also imply that the Russian side feels relatively secure: they wouldn’t begin chasing after Ukrainian military and civilian leaders without feeling relatively secure at home, without feeling that their leaders are well protected. That assumption, if correct, entails that the prevalence of Russia over Ukraine extends beyond the military in the strict sense of the word and encompasses intelligence.
Judging by the available footage from the surveillance camera, Colonel Ivan Voronych was neither protected by anybody nor did he have a weapon on him. He was casually dressed, unsuspecting or not much suspecting. That is to say he felt himself secure enough to move about on his own.
If the assumption that Colonel Ivan Voronych was behind some of the actions carried out inside Russia is correct, the killing might put a brake on executing other actions that are being planned. It might have a deterring effect. On the face of it, Ukrainian officers might maintain a bellicose attitude – what else can they do while confronting the public? – but the psychological factor of being the next on the hitting list will certainly be brought to bear.
Some commentators say that the dirty phase of the ongoing war has begun, a phase of assassinations of top civilian and military leaders.
