The mortgage volume in Europe has collapsed. Buyers can no longer finance themselves with loans at the level of previous years due to the significantly higher interest rates. And yet the ECB has not yet spoken its last word on tightening monetary policy. Raising interest rates further will neither stop inflation nor prevent the collapse on the real estate market. The ECB is helpless in the face of the changes in the world energy market and is in a tight spot. That the first peak of inflation is behind us does not mean that the reasons for persistent inflation have disappeared. Gefira have warned several times about the real estate market, especially in China (where omens for the storm last year included the fall of Evergarde). Now, unfortunately, our scenario is materialising. The graph speaks louder than words:

Two American cities can serve as a litmus test: Chicago and Detroit. Once big, sprawling, impressive, breath-taking. In the year 1950 Chicago’s population stood at 3,6 million and it was then at its peak; seventy years later – in 2020 – it stood at 2,7 million i.e. it had been reduced by roughly a fourth.

Detroit’s population in the year 1950 amounted to 1,8 million; seventy years later – in 2020 – it was down to 0,6 million, i.e. it had been reduced by a sweeping two thirds. What went wrong? What happened? Has a war been waged in the areas in and around the cities? Has a series of tornadoes or earthquakes hit the two cities? Have they been hit by a plague, incomparably more destructive than the notorious virus that emerged soon after the discussed period? Well​?

Sure, there has been neither war nor plague, there have been neither tornadoes nor earthquakes. Ah yes, there may have been a number of economic crises during that long time, but even they cannot be held responsible for the devastation that has been caused to the cities’ demographics. There has been acting one factor that it is dangerous to even mention, a factor that social scientists avoid at all costs on pain of being declared castaways and not accepted by self-respecting society should they dare to roll out this factor and discuss it. What is this factor?

If you are open-minded and not easily intimidated, then you may have guessed; if you are a staunch supporter of political theology of egalitarian humanism, then you will never guess and then you’d better stop reading here and now.

The factor that we think about – this elephant in the room that “polite society” makes believe not to notice – is the ethnohistory and the corresponding biocultural history of the two cities. Give a careful look at the graphs below showing

[1] the numerical rise of the black population and the accompanying

[2] numerical drop of the white population, and the resultant

[3] overall numerical fall in the demographics of the cities.

Chicago’s demographics, ResearchGate

Detroit’s demographics, Wikipedia

The reverse proportionality of one numerical value rising and the other falling strikes the eye, does it not? You can be certain that intellectually crippled social scientists nurturing themselves from the bowls served to them by their owners and enjoying the owners’ occasional pat on the shoulder (Good job, boy!) will

[1] rabidly accuse you of racism, and

[2] provide a number of explanations, economic and others, with “systemic racism” of the whites as necessarily the ultimate argument.

Whichever way you look at it, there are distinctive human biocultures (with emphasis on bio) that cannot be squeezed together no matter how much the managers of the world try to make them coalesce. True, the two cities are still shared by whites and blacks, but then – despite all the propaganda disseminated by the regime and despite the full-blown cult of the Other writ large and enforced on whites – the two anthropological types tend to flock together (see the map). 

Why should they not? They have different and conflicting ethnic genetic interests (Frank Salter, On Genetic Interests: Family, Ethnicity and Humanity in an Age of Mass Migration), which means that they are not suited to share the same living space (by their own choice!) to the effect that when one group is in, the other is out in the most literal sense of the statement.

One more important observation: Detroit is the 3rd, while Chicago is the 6th most crime-ridden city in the United States. Memphis, where the proportion of blacks to whites is 2 to 1, takes first place, while St Louis, where the same proportion is 1 to 1 (while the number of inhabitants fell from approx. 800 000 in 1930 down to 300 000 in 2020), takes second. Go guess why.

We began our observation saying that Chicago and Detroit are litmus papers. What are the two cities litmus papers for? They are litmus papers for the entirety of the United States.

I challenge you to consider!

Millions enter the States from the south. How will that translate into American demographics? Do you you think a new, monolithic society will emerge? If you do, then think again and look at Chicago and Detroit. How will it translate into the living standards (public safety, economy) of the whole country?

Lithuania is supposed to fare much better now that the country is a European Union member-state, but does it? Well, consider. When Lithuania was a member-state of the Soviet Union, it was regarded by all union citizens from all the other fourteen republics as one of the most developed nations, a piece of the West inside the Union. At present the country ranks as one of the poorest in the new Union, which is by far not the worst that could afflict it. The worst phenomenon is that while before joining the EU Lithuania had a vibrant population, now this population has significantly shrunk, at least by a third. No need to add that it is the young people who have left and for good. Generally, when people leave, they leave for good. Now consider without prejudice (can you shake prejudice off? I somehow guess you can’t, for the words that follow are hard to stomach): when was the time when the Lithuanian nation flourished biologically i.e. that it grew or at least did not shrink rapidly? You know, economic backwardness is reversible, the biological collapse – barely or hardly so. 

Demographics of Lithuania, Wikipedia.

Consider Ukraine. It numbered roughly fifty million inhabitants before it left the Soviet Union, it was the second largest country in Europe as regards area and it had a well-developed industry of all kinds, heavy industry including. What happened to Ukraine after three decades of independence, imitating the West and doing every bid from Washington and Brussels? One may wonder if at present the overall population of Ukraine stands at at least 35 million plus the country barely has any industry while the territorial losses are huge. 

Demographics of Ukraine, Wikipedia.

Sure, the Western states “welcome the refugees” from Ukraine or emigrants from Lithuania: after all they are known to keep saying that diversity is their strength and that they become enriched by all the people that flock to them. Yes, that may be so, but then if State A becomes enriched through accepting, attracting, alluring, enticing, seducing people from State B, then conversely by the same token State B becomes impoverished during this process. In other words State A robs State B in broad daylight under the pretext of all those international agreements about “the free flow of people” and “human rights to relocate”. How does that square with all the noble slogans of caring for the “sustainable” and “even” and “stable” development of all the nations around the globe?

Think of it! A million of old, elderly, sick, sickly or otherwise (by reason of age) helpless Lithuanians have been left to their own devices by a million of their young, healthy, entrepreneurial, professionally active compatriots. How does that square with all those human rights, with social justice, social solidarity, empathy and compassion that is preached in Western universities day in, day out? How does that square with all those noble caring oh so humane ideals preached by UN High Commissioners for this or that benefit that they are oh so intent on dispensing?

I dare you to consider these things.

Coming back to Lithuania: Julius Caesar is credited to have said: “I would rather be first in that little village than second in Rome.” How does that relate to Lithuania? The country stopped being among the first in the former Union in order to become one of the last – not even the second! – in the current Union. Some deal did the Lithuanians make!

Ah, but people in Lithuania are free at present while they used to be enslaved in the past! Very well, but why then do they not want to stay in their free – liberated – country? Is it because they do not see a promising and secure future? Can it be true that they do not see a promising and secure future with Lithuania being a member-state of the European Union?! This thought alone is a blasphemy, is it not?

When Nixon renounced the gold parity of the dollar, the debt of the world economy in terms of world GDP was about 90%. Since then, central banks began massive printing of money out of thin air, so that in 2018 debt rose to 300% of GDP. The crises like the one of 2007 were rooted in this debt mountain. A similarly dangerous situation was brewing in 2019, and then suddenly came the redemptive Corona crisis, thanks to which central banks were allowed to print even more money and pump it into circulation. In the 18 months since the pandemic began, central banks increased the amount of assets held by 60%! Previously, to print that much, it took a decade. This huge amount of money in the economies naturally led to the inflation we are suffering from now (which is in every textbook on economics and which every economist should have foreseen). So it is not Putin who is responsible for this inflation, but our monetary guardians, the central banks, who hand in hand with politicos imposed lockdowns to plug the resulting deficits by flooding the economy with money. In 2020, inflation was not yet so evident as consumers, spooked by the media, sat at home and spent little. As they gradually relaxed by easing lockdowns, they began to buy more. This accelerated money circulation in the economy accelerated inflation. Not only did supermarket prices rise, but asset prices and risky assets like cryptocurrencies also rose. Now central banks started to raise interest rates to stop this rally. So these biggest buyers of the risky assets are getting off the racing train, so this year will not necessarily be happy for the owners of the stocks and cryptocurrencies. Already in 2022, the markets anticipated the coming decisions of the bankers. The year brought huge losses in both stocks and bonds, which Gefira warned about early on. So in 2023, position yourself on the assets that will be immune to inflation.

Read more from our bulletins.

There is a rule: a prominent politician in a country, a former prime minister or head of the central bank is suddenly selected and promoted to the IMF, the president of the Council of Europe or some other highest office for which everyone in the world has respect. These are often amazing careers and one wonders if people actually have competencies for this.

That’s what happened with Donald Tusk. He did not block the construction of the Northern Stream under Merkel, which would have been in line with the Polish raison d’être at the time. The favorite child of the Mutti-Merkel in Poland became the president of the European Council. A price for the services rendered to Germany and Gazprom Bank. Now Tusk’s arch-enemies have been ruling Poland for more than 8 years, and Kaczynski’s favorite child, the former head of the state television station Jacek Kurski, suddenly got a job at the World Bank. His competences? None. But somehow the pharmaceutical lobbyists and the financial elites had to show their gratitude to him for being a right-wing politician in the Corona pandemic, resisting the “right-wing” and “conspiracy-theory” temptation to question the sense of vaccinations by his critical journalists, and for scaring all citizens hand in hand with left-liberal media in the pandemic every day.

Equally controversial was the election of Louis de Guindos, Spain’s former economy minister, to the ECB board. De Guindos was a banker at Lehmann Brothers, and after the fall of the U.S. bank at Pricewaters Coopers. Similarly, President Macron and Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki rose from the banks to government circles. The high offices are a price for faithful service to bankers, not for service to the people of the given country.

In the fall of 2014, Jose Manuel Barroso resigned as president of the European Commission after 10 years in office. He then waited the legally required 18 months before accepting a job offer from Goldman Sachs. If Barroso cared in the least about the situation of the people of Europe, he would not have taken a job at a bank that helped Greece hide its debt just before it joined the eurozone. However, it is difficult to expect a man who began his political career in communist groups to care about ordinary people.

Goldman Sachs is unrivaled in this regard. The institution effectively pushes its employees into positions in the structures of various countries and then takes them over at the end of their tenure. Sometimes the order is reversed. This is true, for example, of Mario Draghi, who was Italian Finance Minister, then CEO of Goldman Sachs, and is now President of the European Central Bank.

There are many more well-known politicians with ties to Goldman Sachs. Before Mario Monti was appointed to head the Italian government (replacing the democratically elected Silvio Berlusconi), he worked as a senior advisor at Goldman Sachs.

When Greece manipulated its debt just before joining the Eurozone, the head of the National Bank of Greece was Petros Christodoulou, who began his career at Goldman.

Until 2015, Peter Sutherland held the position of Managing Director of Goldman Sachs International. In the 1980s, Sutherland was Attorney General in Ireland. He was later appointed EU Commissioner for Competition. He was also Ireland’s key representative in the negotiations over the nationalization of the banks and the terms of the country’s bailout package.

This shows how elites are strongly connected to the financial world and that it is not politicians who run the world, but those who pull the strings on Wall Street and in the City of London.

Titbit

In the biggest circus for elites – Davos, so hated by anti-globalists – the course is set for our future. In 2023, as always, the annual meeting was attended by the heads of Goldman Sachs and the world’s largest wealth fund, the equally notorious Black Rock. The former – Solomon – and the latter – Fink, together with other billionaires, have already written the history for the destroyed country. And do you know, dear friends from Ukraine, what awaits you in the future? According to Fink’s statements in Davos, the country can become “a beacon of hope.” You mean beacon of hope for Ukrainians? Not at all: For Western investors, because they would “flood the country with money” – according to Fink. Fink and his colleague, the powerful banker calculated the country’s construction costs at $750 billion. Goldman Sachs had already sent its own people to Kiev as advisors a few months ago, and Fink agreed with Zelenskyy at the end of the year that Black Rock would support and advise Ukraine on investments after the end of the war. So the new colony has already been bought, the future flood of money will make Ukrainians entirely dependent on the West. A model for successful takeover of a country tested several times in history. Now a small obstacle stands in the way: the war must be won.

Beast
The West is handing over weapons to Ukraine on a scale reminiscent only of similar sponsorship of the Allies by the U.S. in World War II. The result? The Ukrainian army is better equipped than the armies of Germany, France and Italy combined.

Weapons	Ukraine	Germany	France	Italy	Great Britain
Tanks	2596	266	406	200	227
Armored vehicles	12 303	9217	6558	6908	5015
Self-propelled artillery	1067	121	109	54	89
Towed artillery	2040	0	105	108	126
Mobile missile systems	490	38	12	21	44
Soldiers	500 000	200 000	240 000	190 000	231000

Comparison of armed forces in Europe. (Source: IISS, The Military Balance 2022)

One day the war will end and the weapons will remain in Ukraine. The far-right movements in Ukraine are gaining ground. The nationalist-minded mercenaries, provided with state-of-the-art Western weapons by Ukrainian oligarchs, are responsible for many successes on the front lines. It is the mercenaries from Azov, Kraken and other troops who are considered as the new elite. They will come to power in the new post-war Ukraine.

And now remember the biggest operation of the CIA from the 1980s (Operation Cyclone), when the USA supported mujaheddin with billions of dollars and supplied them with weapons. In this way, the Americans played the Islamists against Moscow. Now, in this way, they created a new Frankenstein – the Taliban, who emerged from the radicalized Afghan tribes of the mujaheddin. The Taliban later required thousands of Americans and other NATO soldiers to fight against them for decades, only to lose the battle ignominiously in 2021 under Joe Biden. Is this not a warning from recent world history?

“You know how to interpret the appearance of earth and sky, but why do you not know how to interpret the present time?”1

If one knows much about the rules of a game, and if one looks at a given moment of that game, it is not at all difficult to predict with a high degree of probability how the various players will behave. If one knows the properties of a particular chemical, it is not at all difficult in principle to predict how an organism will react to it. Finally, if one is familiar with past events, then seeing a similar play of forces, factors and data, then future in its general outline holds few secrets.

Consider Yugoslavia. What was this country like? A federation, made up of several nationalities and several religious denominations. It included related nationalities and nationalities completely alien to each other. This mixture was held by the strong hand of someone who nowadays would be called a dictator. Somehow this political entity functioned. Furthermore, Yugoslavia was envied by all citizens of the socialist countries of Eastern Europe and praised by citizens of Western countries. Then, as a natural consequence of things, the dictator died and the country fell apart with a bang into several parts. The breakup lasted almost a decade and manifested itself in cruel murders, rapes and destruction.

The authors of Gefira invite readers to entertain just such rational predictions about politics, society, economy and finance. The authors of this issue of Gefira ask readers not to cling to wishful thinking, but to brave reality as it is, and not to believe that things are different now because… No, nothing is different. There are laws that operate in the history of humanity as there are laws that operate in physics or chemistry. If we want to pretend that those laws don’t exist, or that we can act against them, we will be doomed to make the same mistakes forever. Fighting against nature – and man with his instincts, psyche and all biology is part of nature – is as ridiculous as fighting against laws in the sciences.

Going back to the example with Yugoslavia: since the attempt to peacefully hold together nations and faiths has failed twice, since there has been slaughter, rape and destruction accompanying the inevitable breakdown twice (first in the years 1941-1945, then in the years 1991-1999), then why try again and again to conglomerate nations, faiths and anthropological types a third time? Why create Yugoslavia 3.0, the Soviet Union 2.0 or any other union 1.0? because humanity has grown out of its “wild instincts”? Please…