Every market analyst and observer believes that the markets always strive for a balance: the bull market is followed by the bear market and conversely. The art is to follow these waves.

Gefira Financial Bullletin #19 is Available now

We have been observing for over a year now, since the election of Trump as President, a huge wave of confidence. The financial markets believed in his policies and the strength of the American economy. The main indicators of the American stock markets are reaching one high after the other, breaking record after record. Investors are speculating on Trump’s tax reform, which promises huge relief for companies: corporate tax will be reduced from 35 to 20 percent. Private households will also pay lower taxes, but all special deductions will be abolished, so that the reform will not mean any changes for most citizens in the long term and will even be unfavourable for the poorest. Trump signed the Senate’s reform at Christmas, and now a correction is more likely to occur than further record-breaking, as markets are lacking a driving force for further growth. It is paradoxical, but good news only revives the stock markets in the short term, till profits are usually made. At present investors are waiting because they want to book profits for this accounting year, and now that they can, they will most likely reap them.

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The last episode of the successful movie – Star Wars – is actually a lot less about the stars in space and much more about culture and class. Most importantly, it reflects the dangerously growing disenfranchisement of the race-and-gender obsessed liberal upper class and everyone else.

The movie finally came out, the money started flowing and eventually the reviews arrived. The result? On the primary review sites Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes the critics loved it, the public did not, which left many wondering why.

Some explanations came out already: the good results are scientific, the bad ones are there because of internet trolls.Nope, there’s nothing scientific about subjective opinions, even if they (allegedly) represent the majority of those who express them. Science is, or should be, objective.

Trolls, more trolls,and finally, Russian interference.

That’s the cue to solving the enigma of the different ratings: the standard profile of the movie critic is a liberal arts graduate, easily identifiable by the verbosity of his writing and by the fact that he is easily impressed by cheap virtue-signalling elements like token ethnic minority leading characters and a strong female lead. As the movie panders (not even that much to be fair) to his ideological preferences, he gives high scores based on diversity and equality. The average-movie goer probably doesn’t care too much about politics. In a country where a “decisive’’ election like the last one, turnout is 55%, the biggest party by far is the one of those who stay at home. In comparison, in Europe important electoral dates easily get an 80% turnout. Continue reading →

“While people are saying, peace and safety, destruction will come on them suddenly, as labor pains on a pregnant woman, and they will not escape.” Are you, man or woman of Christian and European heritage, aware of this prophecy or do you prefer to live in a fancy world of happy-clappy wishful thinking that the brotherhood of men is about to put an end to human conflict once and for all? Though Christmastide is a time of merrymaking, it may also be a period of reflection. The Birth that we celebrate on Christmas Day was perceived by some as such a threat as to justify the Massacre of the Innocents. Peace and good will were closely intertwined with discord and hostility. Do you think we are living in better times? Do you think we are living in Fukuyama’s end of history?

War has persisted throughout history ever since the dawn of mankind. That’s probably the best indicator that it will persist for all eternity. Why should it cease? War for the purposes of this text is not merely the outright hostilities, the firing guns and resounding battle cries. It is a constant strife that is being played out on a day-to-day basis which now and again erupts into its dramatic form of the opposing armies acting on the theatre of war. Why do we broaden the definition of war? If only because casualties – and we mean loss of lives – are not necessarily the highest during the time of the roaring guns. Those sustained during the periods of peace may be just as high or even higher. Case in point: the Yeltsin era in Russia lasting for roughly ten years. Within that decade, life expectancy plummeted from 70 down to 60, which means that the country’s loss of lives amounted to the magnitude comparable to that during any war, which is millions. This loss of life was brought about by social and economic reforms i.e. steps taken supposedly to make the living standards better and these were demanded or suggested or advised by the powers outside Russia. The result? Closed down factories, laid off employees, poverty and the attendant disease and demise of many. Were these not regular hostilities? Continue reading →

• There are powers that be who thwart President Trump in establishing good relations with Russia.
• Why sign accords with North Korea and then withdraw from them?
• Mikheil Saakashvili is an insult to the Georgian and Ukrainian nations!

A few days ago an international four-hour press conference – an already established political event in Moscow – took place during which Russia’s President Vladimir Putin answered questions from national and foreign journalists. The many queries concerned a variety of problems, from small, local to international. Of the many topic three stood out as the most important:
(i) Russia’s economy,
(ii) relations with the United States, and
(iii) Ukraine. Continue reading →

In a March paper, Alexei Kireyev of the International Monetary Fund advises abolishing cash without having the citizens aware of the process. First, large banknotes are to be withdrawn from circulation, next limits on cash transactions are to be imposed, then computerization of the world’s financial system and control of international cash transactions are to be enforced and, finally, private companies are to be encouraged to avoid cash transactions The Macroeconomics of De-Cashing.

Kireyev draws on the ideas of former IMF chief Kenneth Rogoff. In his 2016 book “The Curse of Money”, he advocated the abolition of cash. In his opinion, it would contribute to the fight against crime, tax evasion and the reduction of the grey area. The ECB obliged him and promised not to print the 500 euro note after 2018. The government of India did the same thing: on November 9,2016, it unexpectedly devaluated all 500 and 1000 rupee banknotes over the night – a severe blow against the black economy and corruption. The next day, chaos reigned on India’s streets – crowds of people in front of banks, empty ATMs – everyone wanted to withdraw his money, exchange the old rupees for new, valid ones, and there were even casualties. Continue reading →

For some time now Syria and Iraq have been a place where interests of many players are clashing. The region is being devastated by civil war or a war by proxy, fought by a number of participants, where the borderline between friend and foe is sharp or vague as the case may be.

The military sorties, airstrikes and other activities are taking place on a day-to-day basis. Conflicting pieces of information that can be gleaned from a variety of sources may reflect both the factual status or the propaganda of the powers that be, hidden behind the media outlets. It is not easy to see the forest for the trees, to filter valuable data in this informational noise. Still, our readers deserve to be informed. With all this in mind, the Gefira team has made an effort to present the current situation in Syria and Iraq in an accessible graphic and textual way according to the best of our ability. Continue reading →