Markets tumble amid global selloff now British decide to choose for a Brexit.  ECB announced it would pledge to backstop. The economy in the UK is far from healthy but, that said, our team sees no reason for fundamental changes now the UK decides to leave the European Union. George Soros warned, “If Britain leaves, it could unleash a general exodus, and the disintegration of the European Union will become practically unavoidable.” Leaving the EU is a completely different story to leaving the Eurozone. For signs of Eurozone disintegration it is better to have a close look at events in France. Now a Brexit happens there is panic and this is an opportunities to earn some easy money. Soros’ remark makes us think about the legend of Nathan Rothschild after the British won the battle of Waterloo: “But this was Nathan Rothschild. He leaned against “his” pillar. He did not invest. He sold. He dumped consols.(British government bonds) […] Consols dropped still more. “Rothschild knows,” the whisper rippled through the Change. “Waterloo is lost.” Nathan kept on selling, […] consols plummeted – until, a split second before it was too late, Nathan suddenly bought a giant parcel for a song. Moments afterwards the great news broke, to send consols soaring. We cannot guess the number of hopes and savings wiped out by this engineered panic.” The legend turned out not to be true, but it learns us a good lesson. Now there is a Brexit and markets are in panic, we expect Soros picks up the pieces for fire-sale prices.

The time of Kazakhstan’s stability and prosperity is just passing away. And this conclusion does not come from recent protests and shootings in the city of Aktobe, but from the panicky reaction of President Nursultan Nazarbayev. According to the 75-year old declared Leader of the Nation and his officials, latest developments are a “color revolution” aiming at a “coup” made by “pseudo-religious extremists” financed by detained pro-Russian businessmen; the President voices this opinion despite the fact that previously he claimed it was the “fifth column” of undefined third (western) powers that attempted to interfere with Kazakhstan’s internal policy. Madness. As if it were not  the sharp decline in oil revenues has nothing to do with that in a country which produces 1.7 million barrels per day.

Making things even worse, it is questionable if the Aktobe event was prepared by Wahhabis or other Islam terrorists. Religious extremists usually do not attack gun shops and military units, but prefer bombings and random mass killings. Moreover, they usually wear beards, whereas most of Aktobe assailants were clean-shaven. Radio Liberty attributes the responsibility for the attack to the “Army for the Liberation of Kazakhstan,” which, according to officials and some other experts, does not even exist. The level of misinformation is enormous. Continue reading →

The monthly €80 billion ECB’s quantitative easing, harmful internal reforms and high public deficit have not helped the French manufacturing sector which has contracted for the third straight month in May, even if the reading was insignificantly higher than expected. The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted a three-month low in May. The euro area has stuck in stagnation and France has joined Greece as a main concern.

Mario Draghi’s policy did not prevent the widening of the economic gap between Germany and France. PMI data shows that both the imbalance between the two countries and Germany’s power within the monetary block have increased. From the latest PMI data one can conclude that the cheap euro improves German economy while it cannot prevent France from falling further behind. While Germany’s ruling elite are voicing a vehement opposition to the ECB’s policies, it is absolutely clear that the Paris Establishment are not amused by the result. Continue reading →

Belarus the last pariah of Europe? Its leader, referred to as dictator, shunned by polite society? Its image tarnished in the media? No longer so. Alexander Lukashenko’s fortress has been laid siege to, has been bombarded and… emerged victorious. With flying colors. Minsk has hosted talks on Ukraine’s future, the sanctions have been lifted, and President Lukashenko has been readmitted both to the lay (Rome) and spiritual (the Vatican) European salons. Continue reading →

Two weeks before the UEFA EURO 2016 starts in Saint-Denis near Paris the situation in France is deteriorating rapidly now that the country is also running out of petrol due to labor unrest. The French police are overwhelmed due to the state of emergency after the two terrorist attacks in Paris last year. Since then there have been large-scale civil upheavals and riots due to labor law reforms and chaos as a result of  immigration problems near Calais.

France is known for its radical labor protests and it is not the first time the country experienced a petrol shortage due to blockades. But this time it is different because there is now discontent at all levels of French society. Francois Hollande has an approving rating of 17 %, which is the lowest ever for a president of the Fifth Republic. Continue reading →