Introduction

The Gefira Bulletin is intended for investors. The analyses that we make and the trends that we predict deal primarily with economic and financial matters related to geopolitical events. The bulletin appears ten times a year at an annual price of 225 euros/250 dollars. We are also developing the Gefira website, accessible to users worldwide, where we explore political, social and demographic topics.

The Gefira Team do not shy away from controversial issues and do not let themselves be dictated to by political correctness. We are doing our best to follow the truth wherever it leads. Demographics, trade, finance, and modern history are among our most discussed problems.
In the Gefira Bulletin we cover such subjects as:

• Demographics
  The profound demographic changes have an impact on economy at large. The European nations, once the world’s dominant driving force, are now in a steady numerical decline. It is not only the ageing of the population that Europe is struggling with, but also, with a fertility of 1.5, the extinction of the indigenous peoples. Demographic growth is coupled with economic growth, which in turn increases the value of financial assets while the current demographic decline will have the opposite effect. Investors are not only passive actors, but some also take matters in their hand promoting legal as well as illegal migration to maximise their profit and increase their influence.
• Trade
  The trade imbalance between major economies has led to many crises, and many others, such as currency, trade, cyber and eventually real wars, will follow. Germany, China, and Japan are running a structural trade balance surplus, while the USA, Turkey and UK have structurally unsustainable trade deficits. In the Gefira we are keeping track on the world’s trade policies and how they create winners and losers.
• Central Banks and central bank policies
  Central Banks are the financial centres of states and their bankers prove to be better able to create economic growth than free markets. Yet, with the current Central Banking policy came cheap credit and with cheap credit came financial bubbles. The central banks, taking decisions who gets the loans i.e. who will blossom or go bust, are pulling the strings of the economy or are the hidden hand behind the seemingly free markets. . In the Gefira we are trying to find out which sector and which companies profit from central bank policies.
• Currencies
  The euro is in a deep crisis. The Treaty of Lisbon prevents the bail-out of Greece. In the absence of fundamental political reforms, the currency will not survive another ten years. The dollar is still the world’s largest reserve currency, giving the US its dominant position. Not only are the euro, yuan and gold a rival to the dollar: so are digital systems. We have entered the digital era, and countries can relatively easily build alternative payment systems, rendering them less dependent on the Western financial centres. In the Gefira we are looking at how politics influences the value of currencies and how the value of currencies affects policy making.