Gefira #26 US and oil

Description

The world is in a period of transition. The populations of East Asia and Europe have reached their numerical zenith, and from now on they will begin descending. With the fall of communism, China, Central Europe and Russia returned to their natural historic positions on the world’s scene. Turkey’s ambition is to follow in the former Ottoman Empire’s footsteps: it intends to extend its influence in the Middle East, the Balkans and Africa. Europe and the US are in the process of disintegration. Security forces, that is the police and army, in the Netherlands, Germany and France are not able to enlist new recruits due to a lack of interest and a declining population. NATO will only exist in name. Western societies will fall apart into small communities that have nothing in common with each other and are even mutually hostile. Particular sections of society will fight each other rather than jointly stage protests against big corporations or their governments.

The European Union’s actions against Hungary and Poland are irresponsible and will stir up animosity and increase polarization. The people on the right identify themselves with anti-immigrant parties and politicians like Orban and Salvini, while those on the left, including the extremely violent Antifa, side with pro-immigrant groups and politicians like Merkel and Macron. The fact that the European Parliament has chosen to begin the process of stripping Hungary of some rights within the Union can be seen as contributing to the process of disintegration.

US and oil

Oil is a perfect indicator and predictor of future economic development. Its higher price hampers growth in industrial countries. If it reaches a hundred dollars, the economies of Europe and China will slow down, while US consumers will suffer a major setback.

Strong manufacturing countries such as Germany and Japan, although dependent on oil imports, could endure a much higher oil price than weaker countries such as Turkey and India, whose currencies under such circumstances would start to rapidly decline. At present the oil price is ranging between $70 and $80, and although Europe’s economic growth is beginning to slow down, the continent is still $10 to $20 away from serious problems.