Gefira #20 The path to disaster. The Western and Eastern approach


  • The demographic decline is real and unstoppable
  • Oil, interest rates and real estate are the catalysts of the next downturn
  • China‘s real estate is an asset with zero future value
  • Mixed prospects for the BRICS countries
  • India’s fast growing population will add more to its chaos than to its economy
  • Precious metals are interesting investment with a weak dollar
  • Considerations about bitcoin


SKU: 0000020-2018-EN Category:


The coming crisis, which is the consequence of the demographic collapse in the developed world, is inevitable and will be more devastating than that of 2008. Within ten years the native population of 80% of the G20 countries will shrink and by 2020 their working-age population will begin to drop. However, it is not for the Gefira team to cry wolf. We limit ourselves to pointing out the factors that will lead to the next financial, social and economic meltdown, which will obliterate Western Europe as the prosperous and coherent society we know. Knowing full well that Western and north-eastern Asian nations have stopped replacing themselves demographically, the financial elites hope that the world’s economy will be sustained by the rapidly increasing African and south-east Asian populations. However, there is no historical evidence to support this claim and such hopes were once pinned on India, which was thought could take over the economic role from China. It eventually transpired, however, that India does not even remotely resemble China in terms of its economic development.

The demographic decline is real and unstoppable

South Asia, Russia and the West are facing an unprecedented demographic decline with all the resultant consequences such as an ageing population, the drop in labour force and a weak consumer market. Still, East Asian states, unlike their West European partners, are not planning on replenishing their nations with mass migration. The new German coalition is ready to accept 220 000 Third World “refugees” annually.1 This number is far too low to solve the plight of the world’s poor, but sufficient to replace indigenous Germans and ultimately change the face of the nation. These numbers look small on the face of it but are enough to juxtapose them with the overall annual number of births, which stands at 590.000 (children with a German born mother)2, to see how epic the change is going to be. Furthermore, the fertility rates of first-generation migrants are much higher than those of native Germans: roughly 50% of growth (newborns + migrants) are non- native.

The Gefira team will this year give an exact assessment. Every year Germany will take many more refugees than there are children born in such countries as the Netherlands, Romania or Portugal. It is especially remarkable that the SPD is in favour of such a policy when the party’s voters, the lower social classes, will suffer the most from such a perverse plan.


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