Ukraine’s president, European managers and all anti-Russian forces are beside themselves with joy because of the recent statement that the American President Donald Trump made on Truth Social. The American leader did an about-turn over the war, writing that Ukraine could successfully oppose its enemy and – and that is what sent positive shock waves across the Western world – Ukraine can regain all its lost territories. The EU leaders must have heaved a huge sigh of relief. Eventually the United States has been brought over to the point of view of the coalition of the willing!
Donald Trump’s words are kind of weird, and they are kind of not. They are weird because they represent a complete opposite to what the president used to say for the last few months: Ukraine was losing to Russia and had to be ready to cede some territory. Yet, the same words are not weird because President Donald Trump has accustomed us to this nice trait of his character that he loves saying two opposite things, sometimes within the same day or even in the same breath. Anyone who’s been paying attention to the American presidents statements should have grown accustomed to this particular style of his communication with the public.
Let us assume, however, that Donald Trump is going to stick to this statement. That means that the United States is from now on supporting Ukrainian war effort, at least psychologically; that also means that the European Union does not need to bother about Americans trying to hold Brussels back from aiding Ukraine in one way or another; and finally, the president’s words encourage those political groupings in Ukraine which might be framed as a pro-war party. An easy interpretation, is it not?
Does Donald Trump believe in what he said? It might be that President Donald Trump has been misinformed and misled by his advisors, and that he really thinks that Ukraine is doing militarily well while Russia is on the verge of an economic, and – what follows – social collapse caused by its war effort. In his statement the president used words and phrases such as paper tiger in reference to the Russian Federation or long queues for gas in reference to Russian economy. Donald Trump may believe in any and all of these things: after all, he does not make an impression of being very well educated and knowledgeable about the world, its geography and history. Some of the president’s earlier statements confirm this observation, like when he said that Russia lost over sixty million casualties during the Second World War (a number three times as large as in reality). The same observation concerning the level of general education and expertise on Russia can easily be extended to the American elites. So much so that they very often let themselves be guided by visceral hatred rather than critical reflection towards their geopolitical opponents.
But there might be something more than meets the eye. It might also be that President Donald Trump is an incarnation of Machiavelli, at least in the understanding and image of the latter that most people share: someone sly and canny. What do we mean? Well, it might be that President Donald Trump is perfectly aware of the vast disproportion of the forces between Ukraine and Russia in favour of the latter, and since he has been unable to bring about peace, and since he’s been thwarted in his peaceful attempts by both the EU and some of his advisors, he devised a Machiavellian plan to accelerate the end of the hostilities by… pushing Ukraine into the conflict with an even greater vigor and gusto: this will make it easier for the Russians to crush Ukrainians and thus bring the war to an end. Stiff resistance and a couple of more failed offensives might prove to be the last nail in Ukraine’s coffin, since the country is running low on manpower, military equipment, and resources. The American president may safely prompt the European Union to continue the aid to Kiev, knowing full well that Brussels is also running low on its resources, financial or otherwise. Ok, if you want to prolong the war, Donald Trump might be thinking, then go on, be at each other’s throat. The more fiercely you will fight, the sooner the end will come. When the lightweight doggedly wishes to hurl himself against the heavyweight and precipitate his own destruction, why should the referee (United States) who has grown tired of the boxing match (the war) intervene?
