Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow


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Turkey, Serbia and Russia are preparing for the looming war in the Balkans

A break-up of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia’s claims to legal authority over Kosovo will be the next setback for the European establishment. It is not a matter of if but rather when the war in the Balkans will resume. The consequences will be more detrimental to European stability than the Bosnia war in the nineties. A war in Bosnia will increase the tension between the Muslim and the native populations in West Europe, with the latter being more and more vocal in its opposition to the Islamisation of Europe.

The 1999 NATO bombardments of Belgrade forced the Serbian authorities to withdraw their troops from the province of Kosovo. Unlike Bosnia, Kosovo was an integral part of the Serbian Republic.By all international standards, the bombardments of Serbia were an illegal act of war. The European Union and Washington recognised Kosovo in 2008 as an independent state; 45% of the countries in the world did not follow suit, seeing the forced secession as a dangerous precedence incompatible with international law.To tell the truth, there is no such thing as international law; there is only international diplomacy where war is a strategic tool to bend the weaker party to the will of the stronger one. Continue reading

Obama’s strategy for Syria: why it failed (and why it was never going to work)

Syria has long been a target of Neoconservative foreign policy. After the removal of Saddam Hussein from Iraq, Paul Wolfowitz, the leading Neocon ideologist, Deputy Defence Secretary under George Bush and an architect of the invasion of Iraq, said in 2003 that ”there will have to be a change in Syria”.The problems during the occupation of Iraq and the radical change in the American public opinion towards the conflict forced the Bush administration and Neoconservative circles to shelve their plans.

Original plan and first problems
In 2011, Obama assembled a mighty coalition, including France, the UK, Israel, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to finally remove Assad and bring “regime” change to the Syrian people, confirming the line of of “liberal interventionism” of the Bush years as Robert Kagan, another prominent Neocon ideologist, defines it.

In August 2013, following an alleged use of chemical weapons by the Assad government against rebels, Obama finally found his pretext to justify the invasion of Syria, obtaining the authorization for the use of force from the US Senate.The use of sarin by the Assad troops would later turn out to be a fabrication,much like Saddam’s never found weapons of mass destruction that the Bush Neocons had used as an excuse to justify the invasion of Iraq. Continue reading

“Russia did it” – the last stand of neoconservatism

In 1992, at the end of the Cold War, an American political scientist infamously proclaimed “the end of history:” liberal democracy and the capitalist system has won, the rest of the world will eventually embrace western ideas as superior to theirs because only they are able to provide peace and prosperity.
This line of reasoning has since become the West’s dogma in international relations, and so under the pretext of spreading human rights and parliamentary democracy all over the world the West perceives itself to be on a mission. For a while, it worked. Most of Eastern Europe readily embraced Western democracy and capitalism and even Russia seemed to follow. Continue reading

Brussels will force the Dutch to accept their failed Ukraine policy

61% of the Dutch voters rejected the Ukraine association treaty in a referendum this year. 31% of the population showed up, which is a far larger number than of those who turned up at Maidan to protest. For the second time the Dutch population cast its vote in a referendum, for the second time the outcome will be nullified in the name of European Democracy.

European leaders have celebrated the Maidan revolution as the attempt of Ukrainian people to join the family of liberal democracies of Western Europe. It couldn’t be further from the truth. In the official version presented in the West, Maidan protests were spontaneously sparked off when the pro-Russian Yanukovich government renounced to ratify an association agreement with the European Union.

Yet in November 2013, before the Maidan movement even started, Oleg Tsarov, member of the Ukrainian parliament, had reported in a parliamentary session on the recruitment of activists organized by the US embassy in Kiev for unknown purposes.

The US embassy in Kiev, via its representative Victoria Nuland, would later become a primary actor in pressuring for a regime change and the formation of a pro-West government in the first months of 2014. For clarity, Victoria Nuland is the third in charge of the US foreign policy, second only President Obama and John Kerry, who had been busy negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran. Continue reading

Europe in Crisis: Bosnia’s break-up unavoidable

A next Balkan war in Bosnia is a matter of time. The Republic of Srpska is planning on holding a referendum next Sunday, 25 September, on a seemingly minor issue. The Bosnian Serbs will be voting on the date of the “national independence day.” This referendum seems, however, to be a run-up to to a referendum on the splitting up of the country. The Serbs want to secede from Bosnia and become part of Serbia, claiming their democratic right on self-determination. Continue reading

Breaking the Siege of Aleppo Will Make Erdoğan the father of all Sunni Muslims

The events in Syria are changing rapidly. Turkey has entered Syria and is heading for Al-Bab, a city 35 kilometers from Aleppo, according to a Turkey government official and a statement issued by the Turkey-supported Muslim militia united in the FSA (Free Syrian Army).The next step is lifting the siege of Aleppo from the east. Atatürk became the Father of all Turks after he had won the Battle of Gallipoli and defeated major European powers; Erdoğan will be the father of all Sunni Muslims if he liberates Aleppo and thus gains the upper hand over Russia and Iran.

Russia, the Kurds, and the Syrian army were very close to cutting off the Raqqa-Turkey supply route. Turkey’s invasion is a gift from heaven for the Jihadists in Raqqa: it prevents them from being cut off from Turkey. Turkey’s invasion of Syria is clearly to the advantage of ISIS.

Turkey’s objectives in Syria have always been clear and these are to:

1. prevent the Kurds from gaining autonomy, destroy the YPD, the sister organisation of the PKK, and 
2. remove Assad from power.

Continue reading

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When Islamic State fighter Marat Nurmagomedov escaped from Syria to Turkey after becoming disillusioned with the militant group, he was unable to return home to Russia for fear of arrest. Instead, he managed to obtain a passport under another name and flew from Istanbul to Ukraine, whose ability to identify him as a terrorism suspect was hindered by a lack of intelligence sharing between Moscow and Kiev. Source Reuters





Turkey agreed to pay €2.2 billion for Russia’s most advanced missile defence system, in a deal that signals a turn away from Nato, Bloomberg reported. According to the preliminary agreement, Turkey will receive two S-400 missile batteries from Russia next year, and another two will be produced inside Turkey. Nato has earlier protested a possible missile defence deal with China. Source:EuObsever


Euro zone’s trade boomed in May with both exports and imports of goods to the rest of the world growing markedly.The European Union, the world’s main trader, also saw its trade increase with all its main partners, with a surge of exchanges with Russia despite economic sanctions on Moscow. Eurostat said on Friday the 19-country currency area in May exported goods worth 189.6 billion euros (167.08 billion pounds) to the rest of the world, an increase by 12.9 percent on the year. Imports also grew yearly by 16.4 percent for a total volume of 168.1 billion euros. Source: Euronews


Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova pointed out that too many CIA employees are currently working at the American Embassy in Moscow. Speaking about the possible expulsion of US diplomats from Russia in response to Washington’s move against employees of the Russian Embassy six months ago, Zakharova noted that “there are too many CIA and Pentagon intelligence employees under the roof of the American diplomatic mission whose activities do not correspond to their status.” Source: Russian News Agency


Italy has warned that Russia is competing with the EU for influence in the Western Balkans, as the bloc underlined its old enlargement pledge. “There are other regional or global powers that are very interested in having an influence in this region,” Italian prime minister Paolo Gentiloni told press. He said there were geopolitical “tensions … difficulties … [and] misunderstandings” over the future of the six former Yugoslav nations. Source: EUObserver




Alexey Miller, Chairman of the Gazprom Management Committee, and Wang Yilin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of CNPC, has signed in Moscow a Supplementary Agreement to the Sales and Purchase Agreement for Russian gas to be supplied via the eastern route, which had been inked by the parties on 21 May 2014. According to the Supplementary Agreement, gas supplies to China via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline will commence in December 2019.Source: Energy Global World Pipelines


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A U.S. congressional delegation has visited a troubled region of Pakistan and called on both Islamabad and Washington to continue working closely to combat regional terrorism and to promote peace and stability in neighboring Afghanistan. The delegation, led by Senator John McCain, includes fellow senators Lindsey Graham, Elizabeth Warren, David Perdue and Sheldon Whitehouse. Source: Voice of America





Ukraine is facing a substantial fine over delays in the organisation of May’s Eurovision song contest and a decision to bar Russia’s entrant from entering Ukraine. The annual song fest was hosted in Kiev without a hitch, but the run-up to the competition was marred by Moscow’s decision to boycott the event after Ukraine barred its entrant because she had performed in Russia-annexed Crimea. Source Reuters



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