Europe is planning on recolonizing Libya, and so it will send in armed forces in the coming months to restore order and stem the flow of migrants coming from Africa. If this expedition army succeeds in securing parts of the country and restoring law and order, Italian and German engineers from ENI and Wintershall will follow suit to help resume the country’s oil production, which will add 1.3 million barrels per day (Libya produced 1.7 million barrels per day before Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in 2011) to the world oil glut . Continue reading
Oil and Gas
Last month we saw the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil ETN (USA) making an unusual dive, doing completely the opposite of what it was designed to do. Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) and Exchange Traded Notes (ETN) are mainly designed to follow an index. To explain the basic principles of an ETF real quick, we take the AEX index as an example. The AEX is formed out of 25 funds each with their own weighing. The ETF issuer buys the shares of the companies according to their weighing in the AEX index. One is able to track the index pretty accurately this way. The ETF issuer buys it on a big scale and sells shares of their basket of AEX shares. The share that they are selling are called ETFs. The difference between an ETF and an ETN is the fact that the ETN is a note. The problem is the third party risk, with an ETN you’re facing the risk of the issuing party going bankrupt. If they do, the chances are that you will lose your money. Continue reading
World oil consumption is more than 90 million barrels a day. Between 2009 and 2014 oil was traded for about 110 dollars a barrel; now oil is changing hands for 32 dollars a barrel. Roughly a 7-billion-dollar cash flow a day is vanishing from the global market. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund that has accumulated a stake of 4.5 billion dollars in Apple over the past years1, will turn from an Apple buyer into an Apple seller.
The China Development Bank (a Chinese policy bank) has poured nearly 50 billion dollars into Venezuela in return for oil, with the country now collapsing under the Chinese debt, having no other choice but to drill for more oil. These are just some of the challenges the world is facing in 2016 as oil prices are heading towards 20 dollars a barrel.
Speculators and manipulators were able to manipulate the oil price to more than 120 dollars a barrel, with the production cost being roughly between 20 and 80 dollars. With a huge profit margin the world was digging for more and more liquid gold. Continue reading
Oil price has collapsed and is not going to rebound quickly. But not all the oil-consumer countries benefit from low prices in the same way. And not all oil-producer countries suffer equally.
Oil prices change as the values of currencies do. Purchase or sale contracts for oil are usually long term ones, the price of oil in such contracts does not change very frequently. Fluctuating exchange rates of currencies are still enormously important for the economies. Oil for $40 per barrel does not mean that this barrel is also as cheap in all countries as consumers have to buy dollars in order to purchase a barrel. Or producers sell their barrels for dollars and then exchange these dollars for their own currency. The domestic price based on the exchange rate is not always stable. Continue reading
Ukraine does not plan any additional purchases of gas from Russia by the end of this year. The reversed flow from the EU and the falling consumption have allowed gas storage tanks to be filled up to 53 percent, from about 46 percent last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data. Russia is losing its blackmailing-tool on Ukraine.
Source: Ukrtransgaz statictics
After many years of prosperity, the tough time has come for the US shale industry. Dramatic US oil production decline is inevitable and many shale companies face bankruptcy. Their assets can end up to larger producers, reinforcing market concentration. US energy independence can only be saved by government intervention. US government will remove exports limitation and FED September rate hike suspension is related to the unsustainable debt levels US oil industry is keeping afloat. But that is simply not enough to prevent a collapse of the US oil industry. From our research we learn that cost per barrel declined slightly but decreasing production cost is not enough to compensate for lower oil price. US oil production already declined 400K barrels per day from its April peak. We estimate an other 2 to 3 Million barrels can be wiped out the coming year.
A few months ago, when the oil price rise again before the June crush, the US oil industry seemed to be able to go through the difficult times. „It is too late for OPEC to stop the shale revolution”1, „OPEC can’t stop the shale industry”2 – roared the headlines. However, after last publications of Energy Information Administration (EIA) the OPEC and Saudi Arabia are the only one to triumph. Continue reading
CRUDE OIL (WTI)
CRUDE OIL (BRENT)
Iraq backed a proposal from Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend output cuts for nine months, removing one of the last remaining obstacles to an agreement at the OPEC meeting in Vienna this week. Source Bloomberg
Russia is in talks with European countries to determine the entry point of the second line of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline flow, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev told journalists. Source Tass
A proposal to extend an OPEC and non-OPEC supply cut for nine months is a positive idea, sources familiar with Iranian thinking said, suggesting OPEC’s third-largest producer is likely to go along with such a plan if there is a consensus. Source Reuters
Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s top two oil producers, agreed on Monday on the need to extend output cuts for a further nine months until March 2018 to rein in a global crude glut, pushing up prices. Source RigZone
A checkpoint has been reached and celebrated by construction personnel on the Power of Siberia pipeline project, with a cross-border section opened on the Russian-Chinese border. An inauguration ceremony for a temporary two-way checkpoint on the border has taken place in the Blagoveshchensky district of the Amur region. Source Become World Pipelines
“Implementation of the project is on schedule and our Turkish and European customers will from the end of 2019 have a reliable new route for importing Russian gas”. Russian gas giant Gazprom said Sunday it had started construction of a gas pipeline under the Black Sea to Turkey that also aims to provide gas to the European Union. Source PPPFocus
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries deepened production cuts in April with laggards improving compliance with its historic deal to limit output. Overall, output fell by 40,000 barrels a day from a month earlier to 31.895 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts, oil companies and ship-tracking data. Iraq, the second-biggest producer in the group, and Venezuela came closer to their targets. Source Bloomberg
Nicosia has reacted to objections from Turkey to planned hydrocarbon exploration in block 6, within the island’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), that was recently licensed to a consortium of Italy’s Eni and France’s Total. Source Ekathimerini
The $1.4bn (£1.1bn) profit, on the replacement cost measure, compared with a $485m loss a year earlier. Oil prices have been about 35% higher in the first three months of 2017 compared with a year earlier, boosting revenue from BP’s core oil and gas production division. BP chief executive Bob Dudley said: “Our year has started well.” Source BBC
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, cut pricing for June oil exports to Asia as it fights to defend sales in its biggest regional market. The kingdom raised pricing to all other regions. Source Bloomberg
U.S. gasoline demand fell 2.4 percent in February from a year earlier, the second straight monthly decline, according to data released on Friday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration that suggested the market may have trouble repeating last year’s record volumes. Gasoline demand fell 218,000 barrels per day to 8.988 million bpd in February, according to the EIA’s petroleum supply monthly report. Source Reuters
The company supplied a record 178.3 Bcm to what it calls the Far Abroad (Europe plus Turkey, excluding members of the former Soviet Union), but reported sales volumes to those countries slipped 1.1% because of lower sales prices. Oil & Gaz 360
Poland has signed its first deal to purchase liquefied natural gas from a U.S. supplier, a step that will help the country’s efforts to cut its dependence on deliveries from Russia, officials said Thursday. Source ABC news
A new pipeline from Russia’s Arctic fields to Germany will boost Moscow’s share of the European gas market despite competition from Qatar and the United States, and will also mean much less fuel goes via Ukraine, Russian gas monopoly Gazprom said. Source Reuters
Exxon has been seeking permission from the United States to drill with the Russian state-owned Rosneft in certain banned areas and applied in recent months for a waiver to proceed in the Black Sea, the newspaper reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Source Reuters
Oil is losing momentum after the longest weekly rally in two months, with confidence that U.S. crude stockpiles are beginning to shrink damped by concern that American drilling activity is increasing. Source Petroleumworld
China’s efforts to weed speculation out of the housing market seem futile as data show you ‘Can’t Beat the Real Thing’. Prices not only edged higher in more of the nation’s biggest cities during March, they did so at a faster pace too — a fearless challenge to government orders to stamp out speculation in red hot real estate markets. Source Asia Times
The oil market is getting closer to rebalancing supply and demand conditions, Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said at the Columbia University Energy Summit on Friday. Source Reuters
Ukraine could miss out on energy sector funding from China worth up to $3.65 billion because squabbles between ministries and the state-run energy firm Naftogaz have held up project proposals, according to interviews with officials. Ukraine signed the loan agreement with the China Development Bank (CDB) in 2012 and it must submit proposals for projects by June to receive funding. Source Reuters
Global demand for oil is finally close to outstripping supply after nearly three years of surplus production, despite growth in the overhang of unused crude, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday. Source Reuters
A crude pipeline to southwestern China through its neighbor Myanmar began operations after years of delays, allowing the world’s second-biggest oil user to receive supplies faster from the Middle East and Africa. Source Bloomberg
Denmark’s government wants to change the country’s laws in a way that could allow a proposed Russian gas pipeline to Europe to be blocked, in a sign of the growing unease in the EU over the project. Source Financial Times
Turkish Cypriot President Mustafa Akıncı has warned Greek Cyprus ahead of a resumption of peace talks that if the natural resources drilling off the island starts before an agreement on the island then there will be new tensions, which he does not favor. Source HurriyetDaily
The government commission on control over foreign investments in Russia has approved the application of China’s Beijing Gas for the acquisition of a 20% stake in Verkhnechonskneftegaz, a subsidiary of Rosneft, deputy head of the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service Andrei Tsyganov told reporters after the meeting of the commission. Source Tass