Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow


Oil and Gas



Europe’s Inevitable Intervention in Libya Will Add 1.3 Million Barrels to the World Oil Glut

LibyaEUEurope is planning on recolonizing Libya, and so it will send in armed forces in the coming months to restore order and stem the flow of migrants coming from Africa. If this expedition army succeeds in securing parts of the country and restoring law and order, Italian and German engineers from ENI and Wintershall will follow suit to help resume the country’s oil production, which will add 1.3 million barrels per day (Libya produced 1.7 million barrels per day before Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in 2011) to the world oil glut . Continue reading

Retail Oil Investors get Burned

burningoilLast month we saw the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil ETN (USA) making an unusual dive, doing completely the opposite of what it was designed to do. Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) and Exchange Traded Notes (ETN) are mainly designed to follow an index. To explain the basic principles of an ETF real quick, we take the AEX index as an example. The AEX is formed out of 25 funds each with their own weighing. The ETF issuer buys the shares of the companies according to their weighing in the AEX index. One is able to track the index pretty accurately this way. The ETF issuer buys it on a big scale and sells shares of their basket of AEX shares. The share that they are selling are called ETFs. The difference between an ETF and an ETN is the fact that the ETN is a note. The problem is the third party risk, with an ETN you’re facing the risk of the issuing party going bankrupt. If they do, the chances are that you will lose your money. Continue reading

Meet Manifa and other giant oil projects that will add to the global oil glut

manifa-project-webWorld oil consumption is more than 90 million barrels a day. Between 2009 and 2014 oil was traded for about 110 dollars a barrel; now oil is changing hands for 32 dollars a barrel. Roughly a 7-billion-dollar cash flow a day is vanishing from the global market. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund that has accumulated a stake of 4.5 billion dollars in Apple over the past years1, will turn from an Apple buyer into an Apple seller.

The China Development Bank (a Chinese policy bank) has poured nearly 50 billion dollars into Venezuela in return for oil, with the country now collapsing under the Chinese debt, having no other choice but to drill for more oil. These are just some of the challenges the world is facing in 2016 as oil prices are heading towards 20 dollars a barrel.

Speculators and manipulators were able to manipulate the oil price to more than 120 dollars a barrel,  with the production cost being roughly between 20 and 80 dollars. With a huge profit margin the world was digging for more and more liquid gold. Continue reading

US and Canadian oil producer suffer the most from current oil price collapse

Oil price has collapsed and is not going to rebound quickly. But not all the oil-consumer countries benefit from low prices in the same way. And not all oil-producer countries suffer equally.

Europe Brent3

Oil prices change as the values of currencies do. Purchase or sale contracts for oil are usually long term ones, the price of oil in such contracts does not change very frequently. Fluctuating exchange rates of currencies are still enormously important for the economies. Oil for $40 per barrel does not mean that this barrel is also as cheap in all countries as consumers have to buy dollars in order to purchase a barrel. Or producers sell their barrels for dollars and then exchange these dollars for their own currency. The domestic price based on the exchange rate is not always stable. Continue reading

US Shale oil industry will simply vanish

After many years of prosperity, the tough time has come for the US shale industry. Dramatic US oil production decline is inevitable and many shale companies face bankruptcy. Their assets can end up to larger producers, reinforcing market concentration. US energy independence can only be saved by government intervention. US government will remove exports limitation and FED September rate hike suspension is related to the unsustainable debt levels US oil industry is keeping afloat. But that is simply not enough to prevent a collapse of the US oil industry. From our research we learn that cost per barrel declined slightly but decreasing production cost is not enough to compensate for lower oil price. US oil production already declined 400K barrels per day from its April peak. We estimate an other 2 to 3 Million barrels can be wiped out the coming year.

A few months ago, when the oil price rise again before the June crush, the US oil industry seemed to be able to go through the difficult times. „It is too late for OPEC to stop the shale revolution”1, „OPEC can’t stop the shale industry”2 – roared the headlines. However, after last publications of Energy Information Administration (EIA) the OPEC and Saudi Arabia are the only one to triumph. Continue reading

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Exxon Mobil erased almost every drop of oil-sands crude from its books in a sweeping revision of worldwide reserves to depths never before seen in the company’s modern history.

Exxon counted the equivalent of 15.2 billion barrels of reserves as of Dec. 31, down from 22.44 billion a year earlier, according to a regulatory filing on Wednesday. The company’s reserves of the dense, heavy crude extracted from Western Canada’s sandy bogs dropped by 98%. Source World OIl



Less than a month after a senior politician in Paris asked Germany to put a stop to the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, energy giant Gazprom has revealed that France has bought 43 percent more Russian gas so far this year. The latest financial report from the country’s largest company divulged that France’s underground gas storage facilities are less than 30 percent full. Source RT





Russian oil drilling giant Gazprom Neft opened a crypto mining farm running on associated gas energy unlocking the power of Russia’s oil and gas resources for the needs of bitcoin (BTC) mining, reports Yahoo Finance. The venue for cryptocurrency mining is on one of the company’s oil drilling sites in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug in Siberia. It is using the associated gas from Gazprom Neft’s oil field as an energy source and has its own power plant to transform this gas into electricity. Source Realnoevremya





Construction on the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline in the Baltic Sea is set to resume next week, a company spokesman said on Saturday.

Work on the pipeline was at a standstill for a year as companies working on the project pulled out under the pressure of sanctions from the United States.

The company leading the project told news agency DPA it aims to get back to work by December 5.

The 1,230-kilometer (764-mile) pipeline will bring natural gas from Russia’s Siberian gas fields to Germany, Europe’s biggest economy. Source Deutsche Welle



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Denmark gave the green light Thursday to the Russia-led Nord Stream 2 consortium to operate its Baltic Sea gas pipeline in Danish waters, the country’s energy agency announced.

“Nord Stream 2 AG has been granted an operations permit for the Nord Stream 2 pipelines on the Danish continental shelf,” the energy agency said via a statement. “The permit has been granted on a number of conditions to ensure a safe operation of the pipelines.” Source Deutsche Welle





It is less than two months since U.S. President Donald Trump travelled to Texas to declare that the U.S. energy industry, laid low by this year’s oil price crash, was back on its feet. “We’re OK now,” the president told the assembled crowd.

But bankruptcy numbers released this week tell a different story. Another 16 upstream U.S. oil and gas companies — producers and service providers — hit the wall in August, the same number as in July, according to law firm Haynes and Boone. Source Financial Post





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