The likes of the late Zbigniew Brzezinski[1], or Madeleine Albright[2] or Henry Kissinger[3] viewed the world as a chess board. Strictly speaking the term comparing the globe to a chess board was employed by Zbigniew Brzezinski, but all of the other politicians listed above conducted themselves in political matters in full accordance with this principle. They all – and their political followers – view the nations of the world as pawns (small countries) or pieces (big countries), they all enjoy the diplomatic game like they are chess players. They do not in the least seem to bother about the fate of nations; nor do they seem to bother about the fate of particular individuals. Rather, they seem to be enjoying their lives to the full, discussing political things over lunch or dinner, travelling by air on board of luxurious planes to different places around the globe, shaking hands with the leaders of different nations, concluding treaties and accords, posing for photographs, granting interviews to different television channels, seeing their images in newspapers, on websites, and on television. They’re having the time of their lives.
The comparison that we are going to draw might seem exaggerated, but – yes – diplomats bear a strong political resemblance to such historic figures as Frederick II of Prussia (who earned the nickname the Great), Alexander of Macedonia, Napoleon Bonaparte or – indeed – Adolf Hitler. They all behaved like big boys playing with tin or plastic soldiers, with this difference however, that rather than playing with tin or plastic soldiers they wanted to play with living humans. They were totally indifferent to the fate of soldiers and their families, to the fate of nations, to the works of art or architecture. The most important to them was their career. They all would have gone to great lengths to go down in history as great conquerors, important leaders, prudent politicians and so on, and so forth. Policymaking was for them – and is for their present-day followers – like living on the constant dope. Policy making is for them the cause and purpose of life, something that makes them tick, something that they are in the literal sense of the word addicted to.
On the world stage there are different players. In order to have a game, you need to have an adversary. Now of course if you want to look good in the eyes of your own nation and also sometimes in the eyes of the remainder of all humanity, you need to come up with a good reason why you want to see an adversary in the collective leader of a given nation. That reason might be that your adversary is evil, that he suppresses his own people, that he robs individual humans of their basic rights, or that he is a threat either to your own country or to some other countries. With the aid of propaganda that is spread by the modern means of communication you can relatively easily shape a hostile attitude of your own nation towards the adversary. You can do it relatively easily because people generally cannot be bothered to do some research concerning the current affairs of the world; they cannot be bothered to look back into history to have a broader perspective and to see the root causes of events; they cannot even be bothered to look at the map and see the location of a particular country in relation to other countries, nor can people be bothered to familiarise themselves with the basic statistics, such as the number of inhabitants of a given country, the nationalities or ethnicities that make it up, the industrial and technological potential, the religion or religions that are professed there, and so on and so forth. Such people – making up a majority in each nation – can very easily be duped into believing anything about any other countries, about their leaders, about any development of events. You may rest assured: the overwhelming majority of the country’s citizens will not be curious enough to reach for sources of information other than those of the main media, to reach for books all articles that would present the cause of events in a different light.
The very few individuals who are willing to form the correct view of the world and of the unfolding events, who will look for books and sources of information, who will mull over the facts, the numbers, the dates – such individuals are too few to have influence on the rest of the society that they live in. Some governments used to stamp out such isolated individuals, but more prudent governments will not chase after them not try to suppress them. Why bother? For one thing, as we’ve already said, such independent thinking individuals are too few to have an impact; for the other, it is always good to have that kind of impotent internal opposition because it shows that the government can tolerate different political opinion, that the government is humane etc.
It is common knowledge that the political big players in the European Union, and especially in the United States have openly declared China to be the West’s enemy number one. Taking into consideration the fact that China nominally is still a communist country, we have a repeat of the Cold War that was waged between the capitalist West and the socialist Soviet Union together with its socialist satellite states. Yes, the ironic quirk of history is that China maintains its communist superstructure while allowing for a capitalist base, which is not quite in line with what Karl Marx said about political systems, but never mind that. It is in handbooks that we have pure political systems, never so in reality. Be it as it may, though for all practical purposes China is a capitalist country, it is touted by Washington not as America’s mere rival but America’s enemy, a threat to be reckoned with, a threat that needs America’s attention, a threat that needs to be removed.
Now to attack China would not look nice to the rest of the world. An aggressor is always regarded as the evil party. An aggressor, therefore, needs a pretext. An aggressor needs to reverse reality in the eyes of the world and present himself as a victim of aggression. If the aggressor succeeds in that, then he may launch an all-out war against the target country with the world’s blessing, so to say, or at least with the world’s understanding. When Adolf Hitler wanted to attack Poland he had his secret services stage a series of border skirmishes all of which were blamed on Poland. The largest of such incidents was the staged attack of the so-called Polish insurgents on the radio broadcasting station in the town of Gleiwitz, on German territory, just a few kilometres across the German-Polish border. The fake insurgents – in reality German soldiers dressed in Polish uniforms –allegedly attacked the radio station and pleaded to the Polish minority living round the town of Gleiwitz to take up arms and to begin to fight and kill the Germans. That action was to serve as the ultimate proof of how evil the Polish nation was and that was to be the ultimate justification for the attack on Poland.
Diplomacy has been developing since then. Rather than staging fake attacks allegedly carried out by the target country, the country that is to be regarded by the world as the aggressor, it is much better to manoeuvre the target country into retaliatory measures. How do you do that? Generally speaking, it is not a difficult task. Think about relations between individual humans. We all know that it is very easy to provoke somebody to deliver the first blow without yourself even touching the other person. All you need to do is to exert constant pressure on the other person. The pressure comes in the form of slander, verbal attacks, bullying, bad faith, mendacity, insincerity, and so on and so forth till the target person loses his temper, raises his voice, begins to use swear words, and ultimately, when the pressure is maintained, that target person delivers the first blow. That’s it.
The relations between different countries, states or nations are pretty much the same. When Country A needs to attack Country B, and needs to present itself to the whole world as the victim of Country B, then country A needs to do anything in its power to provoke Country B into delivering the first blow. That was precisely what the West, and especially the United States, did in their dealings with the Russian Federation. The West began to expand NATO, absorbing not only the former Soviet Union’s satellite states, but also three of the Soviet republics that had gained independence from the disintegrating Soviet Union. For a time Moscow remained helpless since Russia was tormented with an economic and social crisis. but when the West attempted to invite Ukraine and Georgia to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, it was the last straw that broke the camel’s back and provoked the now strengthened Russia into delivering the first blow by intervening militarily in Ukraine. The West’s plan succeeded: the whole world could see that the West was peaceful while Russia appeared to be aggressive, to be prolonging the expansionist policy of its predecessor – the Soviet Union.
With this in mind, what should the United States do in order to provoke China into delivering the first blow? Oh yes, Washington should create an Asian NATO and invite to it some or all of the countries surrounding China. When do you think Beijing will say enough is enough and recoil? Beijing mat not react if, say, Vietnam, Korea, and Japan become members of such an alliance, maybe Beijing will react when Kazakhstan and Mongolia are invited because that would mean an encirclement of China? What do you think might happen if such an Asian NATO began enlarging by admitting consecutive member-states like Bhutan, Nepal, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, building the anaconda grip around the Middle Kingdom? Of course, the idea of creating an Asian NATO would be touted as a measure of consolidating peace in Asia, combating terrorism, and so on and so forth. But, of course, Beijing would view such a military alliance and its expansion as a threat to the security of the People’s Republic of China.
Think back to how it was in the case of the Russian Federation and the expansion of NATO. When NATO was absorbing particular central European countries, Russians did not raise strong objections at first because Russia was undergoing a systemic crisis, but as the Russian Federation grew stronger, Moscow began to react in a decisive way. Now Beijing is not currently living through an economic all political crisis comparable to that in which Russia found herself in the 1990s, which means that the People’s Republic of China might react much sooner in response to the threats of being militarily encircled. And it doesn’t matter whether China is ruled by communists or capitalists, by people professing this or that philosophy, by leaders identifying as believers of this or that God. Any leader, any ruler – be it a Chinese emperor or secretary general of the Communist Party of China – would feel it his duty before the nation, before the previous and successive generations, and before history, to take steps to counteract the encirclement of his country. Such a measure would translate into delivering the first blow against, say, Vietnam or Kyrgyzstan, or whichever country that might be stupid enough to let itself be drawn into an anti-China military alliance. We would have a repeat of what we are currently seeing in the case of the Ukrainian war. just as Russia is engaged in the hostilities in Ukraine, so might China be engaged in similar hostilities in Vietnam or Kazakhstan, or in… – depending on which country might be willing the play the role of Asian Ukraine. Washington will not send American boys to do the bloody job; rather, the United States will pump weapons and funnel money into the country that would be willing enough or stupid enough to be used as a proxy force against China.
Just as Ukraine let itself be used as a proxy against Russia, so there is no doubt that any of the aforementioned countries surrounding China might let themselves be used as a proxy against the Middle Kingdom. It is not the nations that decide the course of history, but the very narrow top echelons of those nations’ elites and these are bribable. Those elites have often been educated in one of the western universities, they very often have bank accounts and one of the western banks, they receive awards from the western governments, and they have their children studying at one of the western universities. More importantly, in the case of a losing war those elites can always count on fleeing the country and finding sanctuary somewhere in the West. They can sacrifice their own nations because that costs them nothing.
Just as it is the case with Ukraine and Russia locked in hostilities, a Vietnam or a Kazakhstan, once any of these countries lets itself be used as a proxy against China – is not going to win such a war. Nor is it going to be the intention of Washington to crush the Middle Kingdom by means of Vietnamese or Kazakh armies. Just as is the case with Ukraine and Russia, Washington’s aim is to keep the Middle Kingdom militarily busy, is to bleed China in the literal sense of the word and to worsen its international standing. A Beijing involved in the conflict with one of its neighbours is going to be weakened just as Russia is being weakened being engaged and the conflict in Ukraine. A just as Ukraine stands no chance of winning a war with Russia, neither does any of China’s neighbours stand such a chance against China, but the cost for the Middle Kingdom is going to be significant. Is this not the way that the likes of Zbigniew Brzezinski, Madeleine Albright, and Henry Kissinger, love to follow? What are China or Russia to them? They are a king or a queen on a chessboard. What are Ukraine, Poland, Georgia, Vietnam, or Kazakhstan to them? They are castles, and knights, and bishops. What are Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Mongolia on this grand chessboard? They are mere pawns. And when you play a game of chess, you know right from the start that you will sacrifice a number of pawns; you know right from the start that you might be forced to sacrifice some of the pieces. Do you care about it? Your aim is to win the game, your aim is to check – is to checkmate – the king. Once you have checkmated the king, you can redraw the political map of the region, and you can refashion the global pecking order. All the world’s a chessboard, and all the nations are merely pieces and pawns, to paraphrase the literary giant [As You Like It, Act II, Scene 7].
Notes
[1] Zbigniew Brzeziński (Warsaw 1928 – Falls Church, Virginia, 2017). Polish-American political scientist. National Security Adviser to President Jimmy Carter (1977–1981). In The Grand Chessboard (1997), he described Eurasia as the chessboard on which America’s global position is defended.
[2] Madeleine Albright (Prague 1937 – Washington 2022), born Marie Jana Korbelová. American diplomat; Secretary of State under Bill Clinton (1997–2001), the first woman to hold that office. Advocate of NATO expansion and of intervention, including in the Balkans.
[3] Henry Kissinger (Fürth 1923 – Kent, Connecticut, 2023), born Heinz Alfred Kissinger. German-American diplomat. National Security Adviser and Secretary of State under Nixon and Ford. Architect of the rapprochement with China, of détente with Moscow and of a power politics in which states are treated as pieces on a board. Nobel Peace Prize 1973.