Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow


Iraq



Redrawing the map of the middle East.

The existence of the Islamic State is now a fact. We expect the “new country” will eventually be recognized as we have seen before in history in similarly cases. Kurdistan Regional Government will be independent within a couple of years.  Basra area will become a protectorate of Iran. Annalist and financial and political planners better accept the reality to get the most out of it.

middle-east

ISIS originate from the US-Turkey-Saudi Arabia supported Jihadist movement that battled Assad in Syria since 2011. Up to the spring in 2014 the group did got moderate positive media coverage.

In 2013 Obama was on the verge of giving Jihadist groups in Syria , including ISIS, full air support. It was Russia that successfully  prevented Obama’s biggest mistake ever by preventing a full US aerial assault on Assad’ army.

Since 2013 it seemed Assad was winning the battle against the insurgents. Assad’s victory over the Jihadist consolidated Iran’s influence in the region. With Maliki in power in Baghdad this resulted in an Iranian alliance that stretched from Basra, Baghdad, Damascus up to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy in Lebanon, considered a more dangerous enemy for Israel than Hamas in Gaza .  For the West, Israel and Saudi Arabia this situation was clearly unacceptable.

Especially for Israel and Saudi Arabia the defeat of the Iranian influence by ISIS victory in 2014 was an welcome relief. ISIS suddenly success, resulted in the disposal of Maliki in Baghdad and a reclamation of Shia held area by Suni militia’s. Many Suni’s did welcome ISIS more than they ever welcomed the US “liberators”. ISIS is not despised by everyone whatever the media narrative does make out of it.

In 2014 ISIS did overrun a big chunk of Iraqi’s army, defeated Peshmerga units in Syria and Iraq, destroyed Shia militias and forced Assad’s army on the defensive. The public has to believe that the group was able to accomplish this without  any support from outside.

The events from 2011 up to now has resulted in a permanent change of the Map of Syria and Iraq; the Islamic State is a fact. There is no change the state will dissolve in the near future. The idea of an collective Arabic alliance against ISIS does only exist in Pentagon Propaganda, copied by many media outlets.

 

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