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Obama’s strategy for Syria: why it failed (and why it was never going to work)

Syria has long been a target of Neoconservative foreign policy. After the removal of Saddam Hussein from Iraq, Paul Wolfowitz, the leading Neocon ideologist, Deputy Defence Secretary under George Bush and an architect of the invasion of Iraq, said in 2003 that ”there will have to be a change in Syria”.The problems during the occupation of Iraq and the radical change in the American public opinion towards the conflict forced the Bush administration and Neoconservative circles to shelve their plans.

Original plan and first problems
In 2011, Obama assembled a mighty coalition, including France, the UK, Israel, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to finally remove Assad and bring “regime” change to the Syrian people, confirming the line of of “liberal interventionism” of the Bush years as Robert Kagan, another prominent Neocon ideologist, defines it.

In August 2013, following an alleged use of chemical weapons by the Assad government against rebels, Obama finally found his pretext to justify the invasion of Syria, obtaining the authorization for the use of force from the US Senate.The use of sarin by the Assad troops would later turn out to be a fabrication,much like Saddam’s never found weapons of mass destruction that the Bush Neocons had used as an excuse to justify the invasion of Iraq. Continue reading

Redrawing the map of the middle East.

The existence of the Islamic State is now a fact. We expect the “new country” will eventually be recognized as we have seen before in history in similarly cases. Kurdistan Regional Government will be independent within a couple of years.  Basra area will become a protectorate of Iran. Annalist and financial and political planners better accept the reality to get the most out of it.

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ISIS originate from the US-Turkey-Saudi Arabia supported Jihadist movement that battled Assad in Syria since 2011. Up to the spring in 2014 the group did got moderate positive media coverage.

In 2013 Obama was on the verge of giving Jihadist groups in Syria , including ISIS, full air support. It was Russia that successfully  prevented Obama’s biggest mistake ever by preventing a full US aerial assault on Assad’ army.

Since 2013 it seemed Assad was winning the battle against the insurgents. Assad’s victory over the Jihadist consolidated Iran’s influence in the region. With Maliki in power in Baghdad this resulted in an Iranian alliance that stretched from Basra, Baghdad, Damascus up to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy in Lebanon, considered a more dangerous enemy for Israel than Hamas in Gaza .  For the West, Israel and Saudi Arabia this situation was clearly unacceptable.

Especially for Israel and Saudi Arabia the defeat of the Iranian influence by ISIS victory in 2014 was an welcome relief. ISIS suddenly success, resulted in the disposal of Maliki in Baghdad and a reclamation of Shia held area by Suni militia’s. Many Suni’s did welcome ISIS more than they ever welcomed the US “liberators”. ISIS is not despised by everyone whatever the media narrative does make out of it.

In 2014 ISIS did overrun a big chunk of Iraqi’s army, defeated Peshmerga units in Syria and Iraq, destroyed Shia militias and forced Assad’s army on the defensive. The public has to believe that the group was able to accomplish this without  any support from outside.

The events from 2011 up to now has resulted in a permanent change of the Map of Syria and Iraq; the Islamic State is a fact. There is no change the state will dissolve in the near future. The idea of an collective Arabic alliance against ISIS does only exist in Pentagon Propaganda, copied by many media outlets.

 

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“The shooting down of a Syrian Air Force jet in Syria’s airspace is a cynical violation of Syria’s sovereignty. The US’ repeated combat operations under the guise of ‘combating terrorism’ against the legitimate armed forces of a UN member-state are a flagrant violation of international law, in addition to being actual military aggression against the Syrian Arab Republic,” the ministry said. Russia will regard any flights within the area of its air force group’s operation in Syria as legitimate targets, the ministry stressed. Source Tass

 


Pan-Arab satellite network Al Jazeera said on Saturday the Twitter account for its main Arabic language channel had been suspended and that it was working to get it back. “The account of al Jazeera on twitter @ajarabic is currently suspended due to what seems to be an organised campaign and we are doing the necessary work to get the service back,” al Jazeera said on another of its Twitter accounts for its breaking news service. Source Reuters


The US-led coalition, including the Kurdish armed units, lets militants of the Islamic State terrorist group leave Raqqa instead of killing them, the commander of Russia’s force grouping in Syria, Sergey Surovikin said. “Instead of eliminating terrorists guilty of killing hundreds and thousands of Syrian civilians, the US-led coalition together with the Democratic Forces Union controlled by it enters in collusion with ringleaders of the IS, who give up the settlements they had seized without fighting and head to the provinces where the Syrian government forces are active,” he said.Source TASS






The safe zones which are being created in Syria will be closed for warplanes of the United States and those of the U.S.-led coalition, Russian news agencies quoted Russian envoy at Syria peace talks Alexander Lavrentyev as saying on Friday. Turkey and Iran agreed on Thursday to Russia’s proposal for “de-escalation zones” in Syria, a move welcomed by the United Nations but met with scepticism from the United States. Source Reuters


The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries deepened production cuts in April with laggards improving compliance with its historic deal to limit output. Overall, output fell by 40,000 barrels a day from a month earlier to 31.895 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts, oil companies and ship-tracking data. Iraq, the second-biggest producer in the group, and Venezuela came closer to their targets. Source Bloomberg



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Syria has long been a target of Neoconservative foreign policy. After the removal of Saddam Hussein from Iraq, Paul Wolfowitz, the leading Neocon ideologist, Deputy Defence Secretary under George Bush and an architect of the invasion of Iraq, said in 2003 that ”there will have to be a change in Syria”.The problems during the occupation of Iraq and the radical change in the American public opinion towards the conflict forced the Bush administration and Neoconservative circles to shelve their plans.

Original plan and first problems
In 2011, Obama assembled a mighty coalition, including France, the UK, Israel, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to finally remove Assad and bring “regime” change to the Syrian people, confirming the line of of “liberal interventionism” of the Bush years as Robert Kagan, another prominent Neocon ideologist, defines it.

In August 2013, following an alleged use of chemical weapons by the Assad government against rebels, Obama finally found his pretext to justify the invasion of Syria, obtaining the authorization for the use of force from the US Senate.The use of sarin by the Assad troops would later turn out to be a fabrication,much like Saddam’s never found weapons of mass destruction that the Bush Neocons had used as an excuse to justify the invasion of Iraq. Continue reading






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