Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow


Turkey



Europe in Crisis: Bosnia’s break-up unavoidable

A next Balkan war in Bosnia is a matter of time. The Republic of Srpska is planning on holding a referendum next Sunday, 25 September, on a seemingly minor issue. The Bosnian Serbs will be voting on the date of the “national independence day.” This referendum seems, however, to be a run-up to to a referendum on the splitting up of the country. The Serbs want to secede from Bosnia and become part of Serbia, claiming their democratic right on self-determination. Continue reading

Breaking the Siege of Aleppo Will Make Erdoğan the father of all Sunni Muslims

The events in Syria are changing rapidly. Turkey has entered Syria and is heading for Al-Bab, a city 35 kilometers from Aleppo, according to a Turkey government official and a statement issued by the Turkey-supported Muslim militia united in the FSA (Free Syrian Army).The next step is lifting the siege of Aleppo from the east. Atatürk became the Father of all Turks after he had won the Battle of Gallipoli and defeated major European powers; Erdoğan will be the father of all Sunni Muslims if he liberates Aleppo and thus gains the upper hand over Russia and Iran.

Russia, the Kurds, and the Syrian army were very close to cutting off the Raqqa-Turkey supply route. Turkey’s invasion is a gift from heaven for the Jihadists in Raqqa: it prevents them from being cut off from Turkey. Turkey’s invasion of Syria is clearly to the advantage of ISIS.

Turkey’s objectives in Syria have always been clear and these are to:

1. prevent the Kurds from gaining autonomy, destroy the YPD, the sister organisation of the PKK, and 
2. remove Assad from power.

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No support from the West for Erdoğan during coup

In the chaotic moments and endless news feed about the Turkish coup, it became clear that Washington and the West did not support Erdogan.
After Hosni Mubarak, Muammar Gaddafi and Viktor Yanukovych it was now time to get rid of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. According to the Daily Sabah the coup was linked to the Gülenist Terror Organization (FETÖ), which has its leadership based in Washington.
The day after the failed coup, Western-based media tried to contain the damage and hurried to proclaim: “NATO Allies Rally Behind Erdogan as Turkish Coup Splits Military.” They did not!
On Friday when the situation was very chaotic the White House website stated “The President spoke tonight by phone with Secretary of State John Kerry to discuss the events in Turkey. The President and Secretary agreed that all parties in Turkey should support the democratically-elected Government of Turkey, show restraint, and avoid any violence or bloodshed. The Secretary underscored that the State Department will continue to focus on the safety and security of U.S. citizens in Turkey. The President asked the Secretary to continue to keep him updated as the situation unfolds.

The announcement was purposefully vague nor was it made by the president himself; in the text of the White House, there was no reference or any direct support for Erdogan or outright condemnation of the coup. The “democratically-elected Government” as stated in the announcement does not include Erdogan as President. Of course, if the White House did support the democracy, the text should read: “democratically-elected Government and the President.”
The coup leaders said they’d done so in the name of protecting democracy, and this is in line with the statement of the White House.

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Putin’s Revenge: PKK shot down Turkish Helicopter with Russian Manpad

This week the PKK shot down a Turkish Super Cobra Attack Helicopter with a Russian-made IGLA MANPAD in south-east Turkey. UPDATE 2016-05-19 Turkey confirms downing helicopter by PKK

The MANPAD in the possession of the PKK will seriously challenge Turkish air power and potentially intensify fighting in the region. The Russian-made IGLA MANPAD decimated the Ukrainian air force during the 2014-2015 war in the Donbass. According to internet sources, the insurgents in east Ukraine use this IGLA MANPAD to destroy many Ukrainian helicopters and planes.  On 14 June 2014, an Ilyushin of the Ukrainian Air Force was shot down with an IGLA MANPAD, all 49 people on board died. Continue reading

All war presupposes human weakness and seeks to exploit it.

ClausewitzSending refugees to Greece and prosecuting Europeans is merely the continuation of policy by other means. Erdogan shows himself to be a good pupil of Clausewitz. Ankara’s objectives are the integration with the EU and gaining financial support from the EU on Turkish terms, as we explained in April Gefira #3. To this end Turkey heavily relies on its nationals in Europe to heighten tension with Berlin and the European Commission, carrying it almost too far. European citizens see that Erdogan is getting the upper-hand over the weak European politicians: Merkel’s popularity is now plummeting across the continent, so that the chancellor may even be forced to step down as a result of Erdogan’s political maneuvering. Continue reading

The Syrification of South East Turkey is now a fact.

The Syrian war has spilled over into Turkey. The Kurdish fighters are now the preferred weapon recipients of the West. The US, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK are supplying Kurdish fighters with arms and training.

Turkish Tank Gets Hit While Shelling Cizre

Not only the Peshmerga troops in Northern Iraq, commanded by President Barzani, a key US ally in the region, but also the Syrian Kurdish factions that are run by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) are being armed by the US. The Syrian Kurdish militias solemnly promised not to hand over the US-supplied weapons to their PKK brothers in Turkey. There is no way to control this and the Turkish state media “Daily Sabah” is already complaining that Germany is delivering arms, and training PKK insurgents.

Erdogan is now transforming Turkey into an Islafascist state: a mixture of extreme nationalism combined with Islamism, a strong leader, backed by a strong army.

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