While the military is forcefully trying to take over power in Turkey, there is no condemnation from the the White House nor Berlin or Brussels. It is hardly likely that the Turkish generals did not consult their plans with Berlin and Washington. Without a green light from the West, a coup is doomed to fail. The military must have had prior assurance from the West that they will not impose sanctions on the country, should the power change be carried out.
However, we do not believe the coup will succeed because the Turkish people and a large part of the security apparatus will not accept this brutal power grab. This coup is another failed attempt by Washington and Europe to create stability in the Middle East. Erdogan has an extensive support among the country’s population; he is already replacing a part of the military leadership and security apparatus with AKP followers. If Erdogan failed to regain power, the country would descend into a full-blown civil war. In Turkey, there is a significant support for Jihadist groups, which have battle experience. The country is a hub for all kind of irregular armed groups in Syria. A part of the security forces will support Erdogan and is willing to fight.
We think it is more likely that Erdogan will restore control in the coming days. In this situation, he will extend his power and understand Washington is not on his side. It will result in a significant overhaul of the armed forces and Turkey will break with NATO.
