Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow




Cerberus 2.0 predicts with scientific precision the disappearance of the Dutch population

A change in demographic trends takes 50 years before they become plainly visible. The decline in fertility in the sixties started to become visible after 50 years. Cerberus, our population simulator, shows with scientific precision that the replacement of the European society has started, and within 50 years it will be visible and irreversible.

Since the seventies of the previous century, the Western societies have not produced enough offspring to keep their communities growing. The fertility rate (i.e. the average number of children per woman) is far below 2.1. i.e. the level of replacement. A population with a higher rate will grow while a population with a lower rate will shrink. As it is, the Western and Japanese societies will begin to implode 40 years from the moment their fertility rate dropped, and this demographic winter, as this phenomenon is sometimes called, will affect the world more profoundly than the climate change, so politicians and investors should take notice.

According to official state data the Swedish, French and Dutch populations will keep growing for the foreseeable future despite their low fertility rates. Western politicians seem to be taking great pleasure in the population decline in Russia, but shouldn’t they first bother about their own turf? How e.g. is it possible that the number of residents in the Netherlands keeps growing if the number of the newborns is smaller and smaller?

To get an insight into the European situation the Gefira team developed Cerberus 2.0, a software tool that, using copious amounts of demographic data provided by the Central Bureau of Statistics, simulates the population development.

Cerberus, making use of the CBS Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics data, calculates how many people died and were born for every consecutive year from 1950 till 2100 and then creates a hypothetical Dutch population growth model without migration. This model overlaps with the official data up to 1980 (blue line in Figure 1 below). In the sixties, the Netherlands had an emigration surplus, i.e. more people left the country than arrived, while in the seventies the so-called mass immigration set in and the process was reversed.

Figure 1

A couple of years of immigration has no visible effect, which is why many immigration advocates argue that 50.000 arrivals against a population of 14 million, (i.e. 0.3 percent) is negligible. This is only true if it is a one-time event. If it happens year after year, it brings about a structural change of a population.

The cumulative effect of immigration became visible in the data after 10 years in 1980. The total population in the Netherlands grew according to the official CBS data (green line) much faster than the native population calculated by Cerberus (blue line). The native Dutch population reached a peak around 2015 at 15 million people, while the total number of inhabitants according to the CBS was 17 million and growing. The Dutch society will stay more or less stable with 18 million until 2060, the final year of the CBS projection. Cerberus on the other hand shows that in 2015 the Dutch population started to decline rapidly and in 2060 there will be 12 million Dutch left while at the end of the century there will only be 9 million native Dutch. The Dutch natives will become a minority. Due to demographic inertia it takes a long period before changes in fertility and migration are felt. We remind the reader that the Dutch fertility rate started to drop in the sixties and went below the point of replacement in 1973. Since then it will have taken more than 42 years before the Dutch native population starts to decline. The inevitable replacement of the people of Europe at the end of this century is already set in motion and we believe that after 2030 this process is irreversible.

We use Cerberus to calculate how many migrants are needed to keep the Dutch population stable at 18 million. We input into Cerberus the 1950 population and, starting in 1971, added 15%, 20% and 25% immigration-related growth. Our model showed that the population stabilized with a 25% extra growth, that is about 45 thousand immigrants annually, around 18 million people, which overlaps with the CBS projection

Cerberus proves that the Netherlands needs 45 thousand immigrants to meet the official projections of the CBS. The CBS data is the basis for governmental planning. The Dutch planners keep the mass-immigration unchanged for the foreseeable future instead of anticipating a sharp drop in population. Apparently, the Dutch establishment opts for the replacement of the Dutch society.

Figure 2

To perceive the consequence of the continuation of mass-immigration, one has to take a closer look at the population growth. When more immigrant children are born than those of Dutch natives the effect is not immediately visible, migrants will still be a minority of the total population but inevitably the Dutch will become a minority within that generation. To see how the growth of the Dutch population evolves we divided it into three components:

  1. The steadily decreasing number of newborn native Dutch;
  2. The steadily increasing number of non-native newborns;
  3. A constant number of incoming immigrants.

These components are shown in Figure 2.

In 2060 50% of the growth in the Netherlands will be non-Western newborns (orange) and immigrants (red), and around 2070 50% of all newborns (orange) are non-native Dutch. From there it takes a further 25 years before the natives are a minority. The Cerberus projections are very optimistic as they assume the native fertility rate at 1.66. According to our separate calculation the real current native-Dutch fertility rate is much lower and close to 1.5. Cerberus shows that the next decades are crucial for the survival of the Dutch population. In 2060 we will cross the Rubicon and reach the point of no return, the Dutch will be inevitably replaced with a non-Western society. But in 2035, 17 years from now, the total growth of the non-Dutch population in the Netherlands will already be a shocking 42%. Measures to increase the fertility are rather counterproductive and will probably only increase the fertility rate of non-Western immigrants. It is said that in the seventies and eighties immigrant families with 6 kids were able to live on the child benefit.

Since the demographic decline is observable in all Western countries, we are in for Europeans being gradually replaced by peoples from Africa or South Asia. We are now at the eleventh hour and if we do not put an immediate stop to all immigration, the Dutch society will vanish into thin air.

The paid subscription version of Gefira explains the consequences of the massive demographic changes in the world for politicians and investors.

55 comments on “Cerberus 2.0 predicts with scientific precision the disappearance of the Dutch population

  • Peter Harris says:

    Pure racist and bigoted propaganda, for the consumption of poor white trash, by using the oldest tactic in the world, and that is, whip up some fear.
    And of course, the PWT lap it up.

    Reply
      • Peter Harris says:

        “Thanks for your comment. Why is it racist? What is white trash? Are you afraid for it? What is PWT?”

        So typical of the feckless bigots of this world, they don’t have the initiative to do a little research discovery.
        It must be handed to them in black-and-white concepts, for their small minds to consume and digest.

        And never mind, that this whole article is completely flawed, with its cherry picked “facts,” distorted reality, and of course, most of the points taken out of context, which is a tactic of the racist/bigot, who views the world through their limbic system, which in turn, like a feedback loop, feeds into their racist and bigoted views.

        Example?
        Buck Wheaton says:
        Bucks entire argument, which is full of irrelevant questions, is purely based on emotion of a small-minded fool.
        Throw in a raging confirmation bias, and what do you have?
        Buck Wheatons’s breathless, and disingenuous prolix, which only has some relevance to he’s own twisted view of the world, and which also appeals to the like-minded fools that have also commented here.
        Is that a good enough answer for you?
        Yes I know, rhetorical question… Lol.

        Reply
        • Will James says:

          Actually , it’s not. You still haven’t provided any evidence indicating the artivel is incorrect. You’ve only spewed vitriole.

          Reply
        • I am not sure why you continue to insist that anyone who disagrees with you is a “Racist” (What ever that means), but the math and charts are simple to understand. In short, if the nations of Western Europe continue to allow uncontrolled immigration then those who are pouring into those nations will soon control those nations!! and THEY will soon set its laws (Sharia) and the native populations left in those countries will be subservient to the to the majority population (Muslim). If you wish to regard me as a “Feckless Bigot” (Whatever that means) for stating the obvious…..who cares….reality is what it is.

          Reply
        • James Coats says:

          Peter,

          You are either a Jew or a Goy troll paid by Jews or groomed by Jews. The author has provided facts that are easy to understand. Even you should be able to see the truth in it.

          Reply
        • James Eunice says:

          Mr. Harris, your comment sounded like a simple rant–could you better elaborate on how it is rcism to want to protect one’s culture? Could you also tell us what your race is?

          Reply
          • Peter Harris says:

            English mother, and Dutch father.
            I live in Australia.
            So what will you make of that you ignorant fool?
            Obviously, you’ll come back with some dumb and moronic comments.

        • Ken Wallace says:

          That’s funny you are simply displaying juvenile anger. Using so many negative bits of verbal diarrhoea is not intelectual – REALEYES – REALIZE

          Reply
          • Peter Harris says:

            To prove my previous assumptions, that racists and bigots don’t have much intelligence, and allow their fear based emotions, and general ignorance guide their thoughts and motivations, you need look no further than some of the troglodytes, who replied to my comments.

            Example?
            Will James.
            Hey Will, can’t you understand my arguments, or is it that you cannot read intellectual commentary?

            Lee says:
            “I am not sure why you continue to insist that anyone who disagrees with you is a “Racist” (What ever that means), but the…”
            “If you wish to regard me as a “Feckless Bigot” (Whatever that means) for stating…”

            Silly Lee, it appears, doesn’t understand simple English, and the meanings of basic words.
            Again, reinforcing my previous points.

            And then you have James Coats, who really shows us all how moronic he is, by suggesting that I’m a Jew.
            So is it, that only Jews call out racism?
            Or, are you accusing me of being a Jew, for some Zionist conspiratorial reasons??

            And finally, you have James Eunice and Ken Wallace, who cannot rub 2 brain cells between them, as evidenced by their dumb, ignorant and insulting comments.

        • John Purvis says:

          Peter, I do not need computer science to predict that in the future the Dutch nationals will fade away since the birth rate of the native Dutch compared to the birth rate of the import is 1 to 8. And a birthrate of one is no increase of population.. When that will happen ?? I do not know but that it will happen is a fact.

          Reply
          • Peter Harris says:

            “I do not know but that it will happen is a fact.”

            That makes no sense, expect to a small minded fool like you.

        • Kind of ironic how besides hysterically screaming ”racism” and ”biggits” you offer zero counter arguments.

          In the exact moment you have nothing but insults to support your thesis, then your argument is moot.

          We get it, you hate whites. It’s called racism, the very same thing you accuse other people of. We also get it, you are not open to discuss certain topics. It’s called bigotry. So, do you have anything to add?

          Reply
    • Buck Wheaton says:

      Do parents have a responsibility to whom first, to their own children or to the children of strangers? To whom to the citizens of a country have a responsibility to, the legacy they leave for their fellow citizens and their children to inherit or is it more important to work, invest and save so they can give it all to strangers who reject their values?

      Progressives have honed the rhetorical sword of “racism” to the point that is a excuse for every progressive complaint, and a tool to advance every progressive cause.

      Progressives believe that I must be guilty of a horrible crime against humanity if I prefer to leave my wealth and my country to my children rather than to the children of strangers. Progressives even go so far as to imply that I must atone for this crime by giving my country up, and all of its assets to people who have another culture, a culture that may in fact seek to conquer and subjugate my own culture. They want me to feel so guilty for my own success and the success and prosperity of my country that I must liquidate it and give it to people who don’t care a whit about my culture or my country, except they want to come live here too until they trash the place and make it just like the place they came from.

      Not playing that game anymore.

      Reply
      • Spot on comments. We visited Holland for 3 weeks last year (from Australia) & you definitely have a problem.
        Completely open borders are just BS ! Vote for the right Politicians & don’t feel guilty.

        BTW Australia also has a stupid mass immigration Policy – just to keep House prices up & the economy floating.
        Both major Parties have it sown up 7 not much difference between them.

        Reply
    • Jack Fortin says:

      That which is occurring in the Netherlands is defined by the UN as genocide. To point that out is somehow racist?

      Reply
      • Stop treating “Peter Harris” and those like him as if they were engaged in civilized conversation. He is making war through Alinsky-esque narrative. Be offended. He is telling you you’re evil for wanting to survive. Those are fighting words, and it’s time we all realized it.

        Reply
        • Peter Harris says:

          “He is making war through Alinsky-esque narrative. ”

          Thats fine.
          It will be easy to exterminate dumb trash like you.

          Reply
    • Your reply is brainless. You provide no arguments, merely the typical left wing ‘discourse’ of insults and slander.

      I realize that mathematics is difficult, but at some point in your ‘education’ you may have encountered the notion of linear vs non-linear growth. In particular, exponential growth (e.g., the reproductive rates of south asians, africans, middle easterners, etc) is guaranteed to overtake exponential decay in the long run. Computer scientists have a language for this, as do mathematicians.

      The irony is that you are probably a believer in climate change. Modeling future climates is not ‘fear mongering’, but modeling future population trends is racist, xenophobic fear mongering. Oddly enough, there are various critiques and questions to be raised about ANY model (e.g., fluid dynamics, cellular automata). You aren’t sophisticated enough to raise those questions, so you come across sounded like a retarded 4 year old.

      Reply
      • Peter Harris says:

        “The irony is that you are probably a believer in climate change.

        Hey James, what has that got to do with the argument?
        You moronic dropkick.
        Stick to the subject, and don’t accuse me of being bias, when you bring in other irrelevant arguments into the debate.

        Reply
    • Sorry that the simple math does not comport with your silly slanted bias. However, the math and the models appear accurate and simple to understand. The main point is that when a population will not replace itself then it will cease to exist! Furthermore, whoever immigrates to that nation that refuses to replace itself determines that nations future. Again not hard to understand.

      Reply
      • Eric Tiberi says:

        The problem is who can afford to replace themselves. That is why the birth rates are going down in the developed countries. The “middle class” can not afford to have 2 or 3 children because they are supporting other people’s children and other reasons for high taxes. It isn’t a choice it is a necessity for survival that they are disappearing….

        Reply
    • It is obvious that State trolls are carefully monitoring any non-PC comments. It would be interesting to know what Agency, they work for. These kinds of rude and snide comments always originate with minions of the Deep State.

      Reply
      • Well judging by the string of responses above and below it appears that Pete the Troll and his name calling is not welcomed among thinking people. However, it remains unclear who may or may not be funding his adventures in silliness (Soros??). It appears that the responses indicate a high degree of understanding of the present situation.

        In short, Western Europe is funding it OWN destruction by continuing to allow sumptuous benefits to be bestowed upon the invaders while they rail for Western Europe’s destruction and subjugation to Jihad!! Furthermore, it is not hard to figure out who among Europe’s “Leaders” is for this by their public statements (Think Soros, Merkel, Junker, etc.).

        Reply
        • Peter Harris says:

          “Well judging by the string of responses above and below it appears that Pete the Troll and his name calling is not welcomed among thinking people. ”

          It’s so easy to label somebody is a troll, when they themselves are the trolls on the face of humanity.

          Reply
          • Hey Pete, I notice that you did not actually address any of the irrefutable points that I brought up about the demographic changes afoot in Western Europe. All you did was engage in more name calling and insults how intellectual of you.

            Oh and take note, if your tactic is to get people to not disagree with you by online bullying and name calling……well save it because IT WON’T WORK!! Debate the FACTS or be quiet and give the name calling a break…because it displays YOUR lack of intellect.

      • Steven Rowlandson says:

        It isn’t just the migrants that have to go but also the genocidal criminals that let them in, corrupted society and jacked up rel estate prices. They all got to go either on their feet or feet first and never to return alive to our nations.

        Reply
      • Steven Rowlandson says:

        It isn’t just the migrants that have to go but also the genocidal criminals that let them in, corrupted society and jacked up real estate prices. They all got to go either on their feet or feet first and never to return alive to our nations.

        Reply
    • Peter mamma says:

      Poor, poor, pitiful Peter. Reminds me of my ex-friend Charles, a ” wannabe progressive” who has no factual base for anything, yet vomits the exact same vitriol. Actually, if you look closely, all the pathetic dumbed down brain washed wannabe progressives literally cut and paste from the same script. Poor, poor babies. Sad, really, because they could literally be helping the world by dealing with reality. NSigh……….

      Reply
      • Peter Harris says:

        “Poor, poor, pitiful Peter. Reminds me of my ex-friend Charles, a ” wannabe progressive” who has no factual base for anything, yet vomits the exact same vitriol.”

        More evidence, that the right-wing misanthropes are the real snowflakes.
        You criticise them, and they show you they are as weak as piss.

        Reply
    • It is YOU, “Peter Harris” who is the “racist” and “bigot.” You don’t think Dutch people (or anyone of European descent) deserves to have their own place in this world. You advocate GENOCIDE against people of European descent. You are the ENEMY OF OUR BLOOD.

      There. It can’t get any more black and white than that. This is war, and it is people like you who started it. I don’t care what you are… whether you’re English or American or Jewish or black… doesn’t matter. You are actively involved in murdering my people. There is nothing more evil than you and the anti-white communist ideology you represent. Using that Alinsky tactic of attacking us with epithets like “racist” and “bigot” only proves my point.

      Reply
      • Peter Harris says:

        “You advocate GENOCIDE against people of European descent. You are the ENEMY OF OUR BLOOD.”

        That comment proves you are a complete idiot, and recalcitrant moron.

        Reply
    • Stan Zorin says:

      @ Peter Harris – I stumbled on this website by accident, this is my first time here. I read the article and the comments section. There is an individual posting comments on this forum who has a problem generating a valid response to good questions. To Peter Harris – if you want other people to find you credible, to see you as a creature which can properly communicate, then do not behave like a mental case, like a rabid dog biting everyone who is near. You do not exhibit rational behavior. I have an idea why you are like this but I’ll let you answer first before telling.
      It is possible that you are capable of a reasoned answer, why don’t you show people that you can do it ? Good questions were asked, so answer them. Prove to us your contention that it is not true that when a certain ethnic group stops propagating in sufficient numbers, to at least keep its total count stable, then that ethnic group is dying out and eventually will be replaced by an ethnic group/groups whose members propagate like rabbits. Prove to us that 2+2 is not 4, that when the death rate of a population exceeds its birth rate then that population is not dying out.

      Reply
  • zoysSEEeee says:

    Well It´s not about to “keep our population crowing”, it´s about that others are crowing their populations.

    They do not share the sustainable idea of a lower population on Earth as we do in west.

    When I was a kid, I thought that there was already enought people on Earth, I did not to get kids when coming older.

    And I didn´t. But the population in developing countries is still crowing..

    Not right of course

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiRRIHfzA_Q

    Reply
  • Buck Wheaton says:

    Liberals (er, now “progressives”) seem to hate children. The vast majority support abortion and even act as if it were a noble act, akin to a rite of passage or even a sacrament. Some even refuse to have children under the specious theory that the planet is overcrowded. They hardly ever mention their own legacy. They only mention what we leave for future generations to inherit when it is more useful as a bludgeon to advance a current policy position. Above all, they will never, ever, mention their lineage because that hints of “racism.”

    Their pervasive socialism is rooted in the specious idea that they have a right (maybe because of their self-confirmed status as elites) to control and regulate the property and assets of others. They believe that society will be better in every way that counts when we each are forced by their government to live at the expense over everyone else.

    What is the progressive view on the obligation of parents to leave an inheritance for their children? That would of course only apply to those who had children that were actually born. But based on their actions and not their words it does appear that progressives want their children to do well. If a progressive had a good thing going in their life, when they have the choice, they arrange their affairs and plan their estates so their children will enjoy the benefits of the assets they pass on.

    I have yet to see a wealthy progressive who leaves their full estate to NGO like Planned Parenthood rather than to their children. Some even go so far as to want to pass on political power and positions to their children. Where would John F. Kennedy, Jr. be today had he not died in an airplane crash?

    The reason for bringing this up, is to ask the simple question: to whom should we pass our wealth and our society on to? Are we obligated to pass it on to our children and the children of our fellow citizens? Or do we have a higher obligation to pass it on to the children of perfect strangers? Are we obligated to do that even when those perfect strangers do not feel the same towards us?

    Or because of some past sin of our parents or their parents, are we obligated to just liquidate our entire society and economy and pass out those assets to whoever comes to demand a share?

    I see that someone has complained that this analysis of demographic trends is “racist”. Putting aside exactly what the word “racist” means, what is the end goal of such a complaint? Am I being “racist” when I pass on my estate only to my own family members? Not by any means. Then why should I not be concerned when demographic trends are so stark that we face the prospect that in many western countries the birth rate is so low that family trees are inverted, where four grandparents have two adult children who only have a single child. What kind of legacy is that? And what happens when others come to the border and demand to be let in, demand to be put on public benefits, demand to be able to vote and demand to be able to live where they want and demand to be able to have members of their own culture in political office? What happens when these people want to retain the culture they came from, so that they eventually overwhelm and subsume the local indigenous culture?

    Is this not slow motion suicide? It is “racist” to anticipate the logical and rational outcome of current trends and to ask is this the future we want to leave for our children?

    Reply
  • Luigi Vercotti says:

    “Population Simulator” “Scientific Precision” — that should start some red lights flashing.

    The article fails to address a glaring logical logical deficiency in the “replacement” number — which is itself highly suspect because it is derived from dubious projections decades into the future by another one of those useless pseudo-scientific economic models like the birth-death model used to fake the US BLS employment numbers, or the central bank “model” predictions of GDP growth which have been entirely wrong for 20 years.

    45000 is a bare number only, with no reference to the quality. So the future deficiency of doctors in the Dutch population is to be replaced by subsaharan Blacks with an IQ of 85 who have just climbed out of their loin cloths? Let the Marxist politicians be operated on by such immigrants. Or engineers by illiterate middle-Eastern goatherds? Get one of those to install heating in the Marxist politicians’ luxury houses.

    The low-skilled jobs will be automated away by robots, leaving an army of parasites in ghettoes.

    The third false assumption is that population growth needs to be maintained in the first place. Japan seems to be managing– and China had to enforce a 1-chlid policy to avoid overwhelming the infrastructure. Visit any large town like Amsterdam, Berlin or London and enjoy your subway travel or rented accomodation. The overcrowding has reached such proportions that a reduction of population is required, not an increase.

    Reply
  • Legal immigration does a wonderful thing but barely touches the issues of why people are moving to another country….There are probably at least 1/2 trillion people that are displaced or on the move. The best solution I have heard of is assisting people where they are. Build up their countries, cities, towns, etc. so they can have a good quality of life. Immigration is not the answer that will even come close to solving these issues.

    Reply
  • saruna2017 says:

    The Netherlands that allows immigration is under threat but so is Japan that does not allow immigrants.

    It has a certain irony that those we deliberately seek to regime change via terror or to bomb into oblivion eventually after 3-4 generations become our new state of existence. (The meek shall inherit the Earth – Cliche!)

    If my thinking has some relevance even at the margins (and marginal effects usually decide direction and value in most fields of endeavour), then maybe we should be making war more personal and closer to home to stimulate the birth rate. A distressing thought but can we be so serene about perfecting extra judicial killing of people at a safe distance (as Trump says – bomb the bastards – but it was Obama (and his mates like us) the Nobel peace prize winner that set the annual records for ordinance tonnage and flattened ancient cities and drone executions).

    The real terror for our civilisation is not the occasional terrorist but our own actions that lead to our (peaceful?) demise. And maybe we deserve it – maybe?

    Nature is very subtle and pragmatic.

    Reply
  • Ibolya Magyar says:

    Don`t stay at the surface. Just check the Kalergi plan. Check who is George Soros and Peter Sutherland. The UN and the EU openly talking about population replacement in Europe. The Political Zionist Jews behind 9/11, endless wars, dept, invasion etc. Check this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzIRG525l6s&t=2s The big question is, how long Europe will tolerate this Zionist plan.

    Reply
  • Well, as someone who enjoys science and plays with statistics (yes, darlings, statistics is a game ;-)), I would like to know what definition of “native Dutch” the author uses. Does it include Dutch of Spanish origin (100 yr war, remember?) or Dutch with French ethnic roots (long history together incl. the house of Orange) or Germanic Dutch e.g.? Are the Dutch population of former colonies considered to be native? And where in the migration stats in this model can I find Western immigrants, e.g. expats and their families?

    I miss the definition of the key concepts i.e. a key part of every scientific analyses 😉

    Reply
    • The Board says:

      Demographic is more than statistics. You can do some precise observations and projections.
      We use the population of 1950 as it is provided by the Central Bureau of Statistics. We chose 1950 because it is 20 years before the unprecedented mass migration from Africa began. The term native has never been problematic in history as it applies to people original living in the US or Australia. We do not see any problems.
      The definition is instrumental: CBS population of 1950. That is all there is
      One can also argue that all net-migration comes from within Europe. However, our findings are in line with other key numbers of the CBS.

      These figures are more telling than for example the statistics used by climate scientists or economists.
      Population decline of Western and East Asian is absolute.

      Reply
  • Douglas Bredahl says:

    The human race isn’t doing very well, neither is the environment. These facts are not unrelated but what is more important, and less obvious, is that all this is a part of the evolution our Planet. The great controversy between good and evil will end when everyone has made their choice. Everyone will be accounted for.

    Reply
  • Some humans spend their day in criticism of others.
    Try spending time feeling grateful and increase joy
    in the lives in other begetting joy for oneself.
    Work at uplifting rather than breaking down hiding
    behind a computer. Increase face to face time.
    Go solve the issues rather than whine and complain.
    This article substantiates a valid point for that region.
    It is also inclusive of all nationalities included in the census bureau.

    Reply
  • We need a clear definition of fertility. If poor people from poor countries get rewarded with very generous benefits when immigrating in a white country and get paid more money per baby than they could earn in their native country working 7 days a week, they will have more babies not because they are more fertile but because they want the benefits. When middle class people look at same child support money, it is far less attractive to have many babies especially if they know that the higher education needed for attaining middle class earnings will be very expensive. The reward/punishment balance present will encourage the poor uneducated and the less intelligent or less hard working people to have many babies, but will discourage the squeezed middle classes from having even two or three babies. In my opinion, nothing to do with fertility.

    Reply
  • Homo sapiens’ (us, the human race) is/are a failed species doomed to extinction. Of course, this is just my opinion. I base that opinion on trends that I observe. We are outstripping and out-populating this planet’s carrying capacity and when resources (especially oil/natural gas) near depletion intense competition for remaining resources is likely to trigger worldwide conflict, war and mass starvation. Now we have the technology and advanced weapons of mass destruction to wipe out whole populations. And we are pig headed and stubborn and evil enough to use those weapons. I almost forgot to mention the inadequate supply of fresh water. Climate change can only worsen that situation. Here in Europe and North America we decided to lower our birthrate, but we forgot to tell Africans and Asians and Latin Americans to to likewise, so they will inherit what is left of the earth after we disappear. A scorched earth. No my problem. I’m old and decrepit and won’t be around much longer. But God help my children and their children!

    Reply
  • Dana T Webb says:

    I had a teacher in cultural anthropology that pointed out that just introducing a new technology you can destroy whole societies, in this case, it might be birth control pills and abortion. And governments that like to fight wars on credit thereby depleting productive capital to sustain future generations.

    Reply
  • James Eunice says:

    My question to pro-immigration people is, with all the Muslims being brought into western nations, and the documented activity of “Silent Jihad” which is designed to take place over about 20-30 years in order to bring about Muslim majorities and minority status of the host population–and since non-Muslims in the Mid-East are often told convert , pay the Jizz tax, or die–my question is: What is your plan of action if it is one day demanded of you to convert to Islam, pay the Jizz tax, or die? Also, have you advised your children on response if they are someday faced with this problem. I would like to hear people’s thoughts on this.

    Reply
  • Jim Creek says:

    Liberals and Demoncrats have TRICKED YOU by separating you from this verse.

    Gen 9:7 And you, be ye fruitful, and multiply; bring forth abundantly in the earth, and multiply therein.

    Instead, have told you about Planned Parenthood. A deadly misnomer.

    Reply
  • kerdasi amaq says:

    What is a racist?

    Someone one who relies on rational arguments to confront a libtard with an unpleasant reality.
    In other words anyone who is winning an argument with a liberal.

    As for the European Commission; the only conclusion that they will draw from this article is that their plans are working out perfectly.

    Reply
  • Holocoaster says:

    People like Peter are typical Hasbara trolls. They work for the Israeli governement. They always use the tactic that Peter’s using.

    Just ignore him.

    Reply
  • Pablo Hein says:

    Take into consideration that each year between 120.000 and 150,000 Dutch leave the country to seek a better or different life elsewhere.

    Reply

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GEFIRA provides in-depth and comprehensive analysis of and valuable insight into current events that investors, financial planners and politicians need to know to anticipate the world of tomorrow; it is intended for professional and non-professional readers.

Yearly subscription: 10 issues for 225€
Renewal: 160€

The Gefira bulletin is available in ENGLISH, GERMAN and SPANISH.

 
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