Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow

The US is in no position to win a war on the Korean peninsula

The current US society is internally extremely divided, it will be hard to unite the nation behind the flag in a new large-scale military conflict in the Korean Peninsula. The militarily advanced adversary and a problematic US domestic social and political situation limit the president’s possibilities to lead the nation into another full-scale war.

The tension between the US and North Korea has increased dramatically over the last couple of months, but , as we see it, the war with North Korea is highly unlikely. The Chinese have announced that they will not accept a Libya-style forced overthrow of the North Korean government. A military conflict in the Korean Peninsula will draw China and possibly Russia into it. Hostilities in the South China Sea will come at a significant cost to all parties involved. America’s adversary on the Korean Peninsula cannot be compared to Afghanistan, Libya or Iraq.

We compared the military strength of the United States and China:

Comparison of military strength between South Korea, North Korea and Japan

The US still has the most advanced army and spends the most money on its military, but it has to operate across the Pacific Ocean. China and Russia can officially stay out of the conflict while trying to inflict as many casualties on the US forces as possible by proxy. China or Russia do not need to defeat the US in the battlefield.

The position of the current President is weak, and the US establishment are fighting among themselves, which looks like a palace revolution is brewing up. Donald Trump’s struggle with lawmakers and the media makes it impossible for the Pentagon and the President to rally the nation behind the flag for another bloody conflict.

The US has become an ageing society that relies on migrants. 16% of the US army are Latinos who came to the US for a better future rather than fighting in a country they probably cannot find on the map. The US financial situation is dramatic, and the current administration will increase the budget deficit even further.

Trump’s budget plan, as published on the website of the White House, necessitates both a doubling of social security spending and a drastic increase in tax revenue as we explain in Gefira #16.

The US population is hopelessly divided. Even students are fighting each other on university campuses. The white European middle class outside the big cities is on the defensive and is now more afraid of the Black Lives Matter movement and an increasing Latino population in their communities than of an isolated leader thousands of miles away.

A new military conflict in the far east will be a bloody fight, but its outcome will be decided in the streets of US cities.

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