The Western world is heading for the next big social and economic crisis. America’s hegemony is waning and its establishment is fighting among themselves. To uphold American supremacy, President Trump and his administration are trying to reshape the nation into a neo-feudal society with a new relationship between the President (sovereign), the financial elite (fief holders, the privileged vassals) and the people (subjects performing socage). If the country is doing well, the population lives in relative stability and the leader is loved. The US is facing a demographic decline and a rapid replacement with migrants from Central America and Africa. This internal development will have profound effects on social stability and economic prosperity. The US can only be a superpower if the country is stable and the nation supports the establishment.
Jerome Powell, the head of the FED, is derailing Trump’s stimulus programme by increasing the interest rate and reducing the federal reserve balance sheet. The actions of the FED result in a drop in stock prices and the increase in the cost of debt servicing for the highly indebted US corporations. The US is now the world’s largest oil consumer and producer thanks to its shale oil industry. However even with the oil price around $70 the industry has lost more than it earned. A high interest rate and a low oil price make the industry vulnerable.
- The US will become a neofeudal nation.
- Monetary and fiscal policy: it is time for gold again.
- Trident Juncture – Arctic ice gets hot.
The president has said clearly that he does not like what the FED is doing. The FED has to revise its decisions, otherwise Jerome Powell will be dismissed as envisioned by Section 10 of the Federal Act. The FED will have to reconsider its policies so as to enable the stock market to make another push up next year. However, investors should be careful. The emperor has no clothes, and while the S&P is still at an all-time high, it may happen that soon distinguished brands like General Electric, once America’s most valuable company, will be on the brink of bankruptcy.
President Trump will not be able to reverse the social decline, the gradual impoverishment of the middle class and the exodus of factories. The tensions within the US establishment are spreading to Europe. On both sides of the Atlantic, there is huge discontent between the native peoples and immigrants, so ethnic clashes are more and more likely. Trust in national governments is eroding and the Western societies will slowly fall apart. While the US remains the world’s sole superpower, it has nonetheless lost the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Still, the Washington cabal is clinging to power by imposing more and more sanctions on companies and countries. The Western world and its financial system are breaking down and for that reason gold will again be a safe haven for investors.
Energy is pivotal. The conflict with Russia is about energy. As long as Russia is Europe’s main energy supplier, Moscow will wield power over the Old Continent. Operation Trident, NATO’s large military exercises held in Norway, is about energy resources. In Gefira 28 we discuss the future of the United States and give the reader an extensive analysis of the US shale oil industry, explaining why the FED will be compelled to change its policies.
According to the Gefira team, the next systemic crisis will happen around 2020 as the oil price is back at 100 dollar and German mass retirement begin. There is a high risk of war on the Old Continent. However, it is not Russia but Turkey that is the most imminent threat.
It is not the emerging markets, nor public or private debt that should be of interest to investors but instead the shrinking populations in the developed world. Japan is the first country that experiences a diminishing number of people, and for that reason, it pursuing extraordinary monetary and fiscal policies.The decrease in the European and US populations will have dire economic consequences, and after 2025 China will join the club of dying nations.
Apart from China and Russia, economic growth in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia is dependent on the developed countries which see a dramatic shrinkage of their populations.
In the Gefira bulletin we provide investment suggestions and give a coherent vision of the time ahead from a macroeconomic perspective.
On our Website, we have articles from our research team whereas in the Gefira Financial Bulletin we give a comprehensive explanation of the coming world. We focus primarily on economic, investment and strategic subjects. We focus on 2020 as the financial breaking point.
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From the perspective of investors and financial planners we focus on such issues as:
- geopolitical risks
- demographics
- private and public debt
- assets bubbles
- cryptocurrencies
- energy security
The Gefira Financial Bulletin is a confidential briefing paper on the current economic events for investors and generally the business community. It is accompanied by our website, where you will find articles on social issues. The Gefira research team is the only one that is acutely aware of the importance of the current unprecedented demographic changes not seen before in all of history.
The Gefira research team elaborates its anticipation, drawing on:
- an extensive knowledge of finance and banking;
- a comprehensive understanding of geopolitics and history;
- detailed data analyses of millions of records;
- computer-aided simulations.
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