Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow

Amazing how history repeats itself

These are excerpts from the article, which can be read in full at Gefira Financial Bulletin #68.

Historical precedent
Germany, 1918. The war has been going on for several years, a devastating war. The Germans occupy a sizable portion of French territory and also all of Belgium, not to mention the vast territories that German soldiers have managed to snatch from Russia. But the war is destroying all sides, and since there is no end in sight, the Germans decided to make concessions and, at least in the West, bring the hostilities to an end. The Entente promised to sit down at the negotiation table. An armistice was concluded. The famous armistice. The armistice or truce is not a surrender, right? A truce is a ceasefire, a truce is the creation of conditions for peaceful talks, a truce is a way to make peace. Aha, said the Western countries. Germany asked for a truce, that is, Germany does not have the strength to continue to fight, that is, we are the victors, that is, we should behave like victors, and treat the Germans as defeated! And to think of it: the Entente states thought so in a situation where a large part of France and all of Belgium were in the hands of… the German army!


The defeated and humiliated enemy morphed into an avenger. Amid the fierce battles that took place between the Communists, Social Democrats and National Socialists for the seizure of power in Germany, the last of the mentioned ultimately emerged victorious and implemented a program to rebuild the country, its economy, armed forces and international standing. It didn’t take long for the National Socialists to make Germany into a powerhouse, which began to dictate political solutions to the former victors. Finally, as is well known, there broke out a war, a world war. And yet, it might not have happened that way, and after all, neither the National Socialists nor the Communists had to have come to power. If Germany had not been psychologically humiliated, if hard peace terms had not been imposed on it, if it had not been debased, the political forces that demanded a rematch would not have come to power. They would not have gained so much support: consequently, the Second World War would not have erupted.

History likes to repeat itself


Didn’t the West act in the case of the Soviet Union of the late 1980s and in the case of Russia since the 1990s almost exactly the same way it once did with Germany? Let’s remind ourselves. Lo and behold, the Cold War has been going on for decades and the Soviet Union decides to end it, reaches out to the West and – wonder of wonders! – liquidates itself! Would such a course of events have dawned on anyone before 1991? Without a single gunshot, what was commonly referred to in the West as the SOVIET EMPIRE, crumbled, the states that emerged from its ruins rejected communist ideology and adopted capitalism as an economic system, the states – former satellites of Moscow – came out from under its influence and joined the Western camp. Russia and other post-Soviet republics looked up to the United States as if it were a deity, the disarmament and withdrawal of Soviet then Russian troops from bases outside Russia was taking place. It seemed that a miracle had occurred, that the world had entered an era of peace, international friendship and international cooperation, the “end of history” was even trumpeted. And what?


Not only did the West expand NATO to include more countries: it established missile launchers in Poland and Romania, and brazenly claimed in the process that they were not directed against Russia but against terrorists from…. Iran!, or that the missiles are purely defensive missiles. Arguably, the Russians should have taken this on faith. President Putin explained to Western journalists, among others, that a missile silo is a missile silo and can hold a defensive and an offensive missile. A child understands this, but not Western politicians.

Russia – like Weimar Germany – was subjected to constant pressure, humiliation, constant swipes, taunts and accusations.

① Khodorkovsky was imprisoned – this was not because he broke the law, but because dictator Putin abhors independent business entities;
② the so-called dissident Nemtsov was killed near the Kremlin – aha! Putin shot him with a rifle aiming from a Kremlin window;
③ Navalny lost consciousness – it’s obvious: Putin, a former KGB officer (we all know what atrocities KGB officers are capable of, don’t we?), had him poisoned (ineffectively as it were, and then had him immediately sent to Germany to enable German doctors to discover the poison in Navalny’s blood!);


And couldn’t Russia have been treated humanely after 1991? Couldn’t one have had an ally in her? Couldn’t she have been offered substantial financial assistance in the 1990s? After all, this is what was done to Germany after 1945, as a result of which nothing along the lines of National Socialism in Germany has been revived since then! At least here the lessons of history were learned. Why was this not done after 1991 towards Russia? What took the upper hand in American politicians? Arrogance? Risk-taking? Stupidity? Disregard for Russia? Belief in America’s mission? Belief that Americans are the chosen nation to be served by others?

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