Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow

Egypt on the edge of a full blown civil war

In the past days there have been dozens of separate attacks in Egypt, from the Sinai up to Cairo. Probably more than 60 people have died, when the Egyptian army used F16 fighter jets to protect itself against it disgruntled population.
It is clear that the Egyptian rulers are not going to be able to contain the current situation, today could be marked as the start of Egypt’s civil war.

Democratic elected governments have been violently overthrown, in Algeria, Egypt and  Palestinian territories. In Algeria the FIS (Islamic Salvation Front)  had won the first held elections with a convincing majority in 1990 and 1992. It has been removed from power in 1992 by a coup d’etat that was highly approved by the West. Probably 150.000 people died in the civil war that followed these events up.
HAMAS winning the 2006 elections in the Palestinian territories resulted in a war among Palestinians and ended up with a split of Gaza and the West Bank
In 2011 Morsi, leader of the Muslim Brotherhood won the first free elections in Egypt.
In 2013 the first elected president of Egypt was removed by the army. There are clear signs that anti-democratic forces were deliberately destabilizing Egypt before the coup d’etat in 2013. In the running up of the July 3th coup by General Sisi an artificial oil shortages was created that contributed to the mass protest against the elected president of Egypt.
The new army coup was financially supported by the Saudi rulers while the West was mute, the only vocalized opposition came from Turkey’s ruler MrErdoğan.
Washington was silent about Egypt’s coup and even resumed the delivery of military hardware to the Egyptian rulers, at the same moment Morsi received the dead penalty during a mock process.  The situation in Egypt will be much worse than the situation that we saw in Algeria in 1992.

Libya has been split in 3 parts, the by the West installed and recognized government in Tobruk could be seen as a supporter of the rulers in Cairo. The government in Tripoli is allied with the Muslim Brotherhood party and sees the government in Cairo as a threat to its existence. Both Governments do not rule Libya completely, big parts of Libya are under control of ISIS and other unregulated Islamist groups.
The war that is coming to Egypt will not be limited to Egypt and will be an extend to Libya’s war, for the sole reason that a lot of fighters and weapons will come over from Lybia.

The substantial amount of impoverished Egyptians are lacking any perspective and have nothing to lose. It is their party that has been removed from power in 2013.
The Egyptian army is heavenly weaponized by the USA, there will not be any doubt that those weapons will end up in the hands of Islamist groups. The Egyptian conscript army will be a huge risk for the country’s leaders as army units might switch loyalty.
Experienced fighters from Syria and Iraq will actively support their brothers in Egypt.
The new generation of Islamist’s will utilize the internet in their advantage. They will use it to mobilize their supporters and build their case against the Egyptian army and their backers in Riyadh and Washington.
The Internet will also be used for advanced communications and “crowd reconnaissance”. In Ukraine we have already seen how YouTube and mobile phones were used to pass on enemy’s positions. Modern professional armies are not prepared for new agile tactics that will be utilized by a new Islamic internet generation.

As the Muslim Brotherhood is enjoying massive amounts of support we are expecting that the situation in Egypt will deteriorate at the same pace as we have seen in Syria.
The Egyptian rulers will not be able to contain the current situation, today could easily be recorded as the start of Egypt’s big civil war.

Sources from the Internet

Algerian Civil War Source Wikipedia
Bouteflika said in 1999 that 100,000 people had died by that time and in a speech on 25 February 2005, spoke of a round figure of 150,000 people killed in the war.[5] Fouad Ajami argues the toll could be as high as 200,000, and that it is in the government’s interest to minimize casualties

Egypt’s Gas Shortage Fuels June 30 Protests Al Monitor June 2013
The latest gas crisis falls prior to the highly anticipated June 30 protests called by the Tamarrud movement demanding that Morsi step down for his failure to achieve any of the revolution’s goals

Libya supreme court rules anti-Islamist parliament unlawful Source The Guardian 6 November 2014
In a blow to anti-Islamist factions, Libya’s highest court has ruled that general elections held in June were unconstitutional and that the parliament and government which resulted from that vote should be dissolved.

Mohammed Morsi death sentence upheld by Egypt court Source BBC 16 June 2015
The sentence was initially passed in May, but was confirmed after consultation with Egypt’s highest religious figure, the Grand Mufti. The death sentences of five other leading members of the Muslim Brotherhood, including its supreme guide Mohammed Badie, were also upheld.

Egypt Officially Announces ‘State Of War’ Source Egyptian Streets 1 July 2013
In an official statement released by the Egyptian Armed Forces, 17 Egyptian soldiers were reported killed, in addition to 13 more who were injured. The statement added that 100 militants have been killed, in addition to destroying 20 of the militants’ vehicles.

Sheikh Zuweid Death Toll: Egyptian Police Kill 9 In Cairo Suburb Raid As Assault On Sinai Town Comes To An End Source International Business Times 1 July 2015
Egyptian police raided a home in a western suburb of Cairo on Wednesday, killing nine men who they said were armed and plotting a terrorist attack. The killings happened the same day an ISIS-affiliated group launched a major assault on Sheikh Zuweid, an Egyptian city in the Sinai Peninsula, resulting in at least 100 casualties. The assault ended Wednesday evening.

Two Bomb Explosions Resonate Through Cairo Source Egyptian Streets 30 June 2015
In an official statement, the Director of Civil Protection in Cairo, Magdy al-Shalaqany has confirmed that two bombs have detonated in Cairo’s 6th of October city, with a five minutes gap between the two explosions, reported AMAY.

Islamist Blitz in Sinai Kills 64 as Egypt Sends Fighter Jets. Source Bloomberg 1 July 2015
Egypt’s army struck at militants with fighter jets and attack helicopters after 64 security personnel were killed in Sinai on the bloodiest day of the country’s escalating war with Islamist insurgents.



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