Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow




A Greek exit will establish Berlin as the new geopolitical player to reckon with

If European Monetary Authorities could prevent a Lehman moment in case Greece has to leave the Euro we expect the euro to surge the coming months. Greece exiting the European Monetary Union will establish Berlin as the new geopolitical player to reckon with.

  • We noticed that the euro did not move since news from Greece went from bad to worse. The Greek referendum has even had a negative effect on the Dollar compared to the Japanese Yen.
  • Without Greece, the EMU forms a much tighter political and economical block.
  • It seems that markets are not able to push the Euro much lower.
  • If the ECB is able to manage a Greek exit, an EMU without Greece will strengthen the euro.
  • Greece exiting the EMU will be a victory for German elite and establish German dominance in the European Monetary Union.
  • A Greek exit will expose the relative weakness of the BRICS Bank versus European financial institutions like the EMU. The BRICS Bank fund will not be sufficient to rescue Greece. A BRICS bank not being able to help Greece will expose its relative weakness in comparison to the European financial institutions.
    EuroDollar

    Euro Dollar exchange rate since the Euro introduction in 2002

    It will be clear that only the ECB and the EMU have the financial capacity to solve problems of the magnitude of Greece.

  • If Germany does not save Greece, it will be a blow to the IMF that will render irrelevant as a paper tiger (紙老虎) unable to solve modern financial problems without the help of the European financial institutions. The IMF is not able to solve Greece’s financial problems and turned out to be ineffective in Ukraine, having an embarrassing tradition of failures in this country. A Greek exit will be a huge blow to the standing of the IMF.
  • Without Greece, Germany could concentrate on Ukraine, which has more value for Germany’s power elite.  Germany, Poland and Ukraine encompass an area of 160 Million inhabitants.
  • Germany will push the EMU in a continuous trade surplus creating a much higher demand for euros world wide. We do not believe the dollar can maintain its dominance by creating a continuous deficit.
  • A Greek exit will be evidence that the US and IMF influence on Berlin is waning.

We do not express our opinion on the validity of Germans policy nor the moral implication of the EMU policy.

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