Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow

Migration will split the EU, quotas can split the Visegrad Group

European Union ministers agreed on Tuesday for relocation of 120 000 refugees in the next year. Against were Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania. Three of them are members of Visegrad Group. The fourth member of V4 – Poland – agreed for seven thousands of refugees, but it will only complicate the geopolitical situation of the Middle-East Europe.

As we said before, these quotas are not relevant, because it is for now a not permament or obligatory system and many of „Polish” (also Hungarian or Czech – they announced that they conform) migrants will escape in the end to Germany or Sweden. Moreover, the problem is much bigger and deeper and this EU-decision is not a solution.

The only thing which we have to make complete according to our last publication is a division not only within the EU (culture of unanimity  has been additionaly broken), but also within the V4. Poland acted collectively to the EU, but not to the V4 and it weakens the solidarity of the Middle-East Europe for the future and also the position of Poland in the region. As the tension between Poland and Germany are inevitable in the future anyway (elections come soon), the position of the Middle-East Europe will be weaker due to lack of consensus within V4. Unless Poland with new government rejoins to its southern allies.

1. Refugee crisis: EU ministers agree quotas – as UN says even its best offer is not enough
Source: The Independent 23-09-2015
EU ministers have forced through a resolution setting out where refugees will be rehomed across the bloc, amid UN criticism that even its best offer is not enough.

2. Migrant crisis: Opponents furious over new EU quotas
Source: BBC 22-09-2015
Central European countries have reacted angrily after plans to relocate 120,000 migrants across the continent were approved by EU interior ministers.

3. @Milan_Chovanec
Source: Twitter 22-09-2015
Polsko si vzalo přestávku. Obávám se, že pro dnešek bude jen V3 🙁

4. EU migrant plan angers eastern Europe states
Source: FT 23-09-2015
Slovakia and the Czech Republic reacted with anger to a plan to share migrants between EU states agreed on Tuesday, vowing to scupper it at a summit of prime ministers on Wednesday, or breach EU rules if it was forced upon them.

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