Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow

Poland cheated about statistics? Recession was there!

Central Statistical Office in Poland (GUS) revised historical data, dispelling the myth of the „green island” used in propaganda by Donald Tusk, the current president of the European Council and the former prime minister of Poland. At the turn of 2012 and 2013 there was a small, so-called technical recession in Poland. The mBank analysts informed about the case on their Twitter account.

mbank poland recessionSource: mBank Research, Twitter

According to the new data provided by GUS, Polish GDP decreased in the fourth quarter of 2012 by 0.3% and in early 2013 by 0.1%. The chart presented by mBank shows the quarter-on-quarter changes, though. In annual terms, the indicators have been positive. However, two consecutive quarters of the reduction in GDP is defined as a technical recession.

The analysts of mBank proved also that in the first three months of 2013 there was in Poland a „regular recession”. Polish GDP lost then 0,04% year-on-year.

mbank poland recession 2Source: mBank Research, Twitter

In October GUS revised also the data for the entire 2013. Polish economy grew by 1,3%, not 1,7% as it was previously stated. And it was not the only one data revision made by the statistical office in recent years.

During the reign of Donald Tusk, Poland was called the “green island” – the only one country in Europe that avoided recession. The political narrative of the Civic Platform, the ruling party until last elections, was based on economic prosperity of the country. In the poll released late February the Civic Platform was third (17%) after Law and Justice (32%) and the Modern party (22%).


Recesja w Polsce jednak była. Główny Urząd Statystyczny właśnie zweryfikował dane sprzed 3 lat, Source: 2016-03-01

Ze zrewidowanych danych GUS wynika, że na przełomie 2012 i 2013 r. polska gospodarka znalazła się w recesji, Source: 2016-03-01

Sondaż poparcia partyjnego: PiS – 32 proc., Nowoczesna – 22 proc., PO – 17 proc., Source: Polskie Radio 2016-02-26

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