This month there are three main events that will determine what happens in the near future. On the basis of our extensive August 2015 analysis we wrote at that time: “The world should prepare for Donald Trump as the next president of the USA”. Among European analysts we were the only ones who saw this coming. It is stunning and worrisome that European political analysts and American experts from renowned European institutions were convinced Trump had no chance to become a GOP nominee. Academia and the elites do not seem to have a hold on US political reality, which is precisely why Gefira is an indispensable tool for future planners and strategists. In the March Gefira we analyze the US election process; Trump’s rise shows a sharp division in the electorate and, what is even more important, it displays a split between those who have an influence on the voters.
In February, the ECB Council made public it want to scrap the 500 euro note. This seemingly minor announcement is a clear signal that the European Monetary authorities are desperate. If the 500 euro note were to be eliminated it would do away with 33% of the physical monetary base as it would be impossible to convert them into lower denomination notes. Our team has found conclusive proof that the only reason to ban these notes is because the ECB wants to experiment with interest rates far below zero. The third significant event we will analyze in detail in the next Gefira is the situation in Turkey and the push by the NATO lobby to incorporate it into the EU, cost it what it may. There is a powerful trend to accelerate Turkish EU membership, but Turkey’s accession would destabilize the European Union to its core.
To read more subscribe to our newsletter or go to the download page
