The failed Western-backed coup against Tayyip Erdoğan has far-reaching geopolitical consequences.
That this coup was coming was known to the Americans, Europeans and President Erdoğan; In May the Wall-Street Journal wrote: “Speculation about a military coup reached a fever pitch in late March, when Turkish media reports suggested the Obama administration was trying to topple Mr. Erdoğan. The rumors led to a terse exchange at the State Department, where a Turkish reporter asked spokesman John Kirby whether the U.S. was working to bring down Mr Erdoğan.”1)Turkish Military’s Influence Rises Again, Wall Street Journal 2016-05-15.
During the recent events the US, Germany and Brussels coordinated their press releases with the coup perpetrators. The West wanted to get rid of President Erdoğan and prepared itself for a close cooperation with the new rulers.2)No support from the West for Erdoğan during coup Source Gefira 2016-07-18The things did not eventually turn out as the Washington and Berlin hoped, while for Ankara it was clear that Washington and Berlin wanted to topple President Erdoğan.
On Saturday the State Department tried to limit the damage, making the following comment on its website: “He (Secretary Kerry) made clear that the United States would be willing to provide assistance to Turkish authorities conducting this investigation, but that public insinuations or claims about any role by the United States in the failed coup attempt are utterly false and harmful to our bilateral relations.”3)Secretary Kerry’s Call With Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, US Department of State 2016-06-16.
The current Turkish leadership is grasping the coup as an excellent opportunity to proceed with their plan to transform Turkey into an Islamic State. The capital punishment will be reinstated, many people from the educational and juridical system have been arrested and will be prosecuted. Turkey will change into an Islamic Dictatorship.
The European ruling elites have always maintained that Turkey is an enlightened Western-like democracy with an Islamic touch to it, and European liberal values about justice and egalitarianism. Those who were against Turkey as a European Union member were seen as Islamophobic or racist. In an 2010 interview, Professor Chomsky (world’s top public intellectual4)Chomsky is voted world’s top public intellectual Source The Guardian 2005-10-18) said: “Europe can claim with some justification that Turkey has not satisfied all of the human rights conditions. On the other hand, I don’t really think this is the reason. … I think it is plain racism,”5)EU opposition to Turkish accession is ‘racist,’ Chomsky says, Euobserver 2010-10-12.
What unbiased observers already noticed a long time ago is becoming now clear for everybody: Turkey is not an enlightened Muslim democracy, and, what’s even worse for the EU, many Turks in Europe support Erdoğan’s policy.
Europeans of Turkish decent immediately in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium took to the street to show their support for Erdoğan, threatening everybody who they saw as their enemy.
There will be consequences now that the European ruling elite is starting to realize that the Turkish diaspora is not the new generation of SPD and CDU voters. European politicians will be confronted with a strong-minded group of Erdoğan’s supporters, who will try to have governments grant Islam a prominent place in European society.
The Turkish pro-Erdoğan politicians in Europe, who are acquiring leading position and are better educated than other Muslim minorities, will function as the Muslim vanguard. The AKP has its power base established in the European heartland with the full consent of the European elite. “Liberals” will not only be challenged by nationalists, who are gaining a strong support with every day, but also by conservative Muslims, instructed and supported by Ankara, with neither of the groups sharing liberal values.
The relations between Brussels and Ankara are now damaged beyond repair. The European companies have invested milliards in Turkey’s economy since the beginning of this millennium. Turkey, with its young population, was seen as the production engine for the ageing continent. Investments worth billions are now at stake in Turkey.
In our Gefira bulletin, we wrote that the Turkish lira is pegged to the euro, which is supported from the European Central Bank. After the coup, the damage for the lira was limited and we expect the lira will gain in value.
While there is a desire among the European elite to punish Ankara by crashing the currency, we think this option is limited as the European financial system is exposed to Turkish economy.
After last Friday’s events NATO cannot be considered a solid alliance anymore. The Turkish leadership understands that NATO was complicit. hence, NATO is highly likely to break up now that there is such an animosity among their members.
The tensions between Washington and Ankara will even escalate further after Turkey has asked for the extradition of Fethullah Gülen. If the US extradites Mr. Gülen, it will be seen by the Muslim world as President Erdoğan’s huge victory and President Obama’s humiliation. If the USA refuses to comply, Turkey may stop being a NATO member, and then the alliance will have lost its serious presence in the Black Sea, which will be a significant military advantage for Russia.
While the total fallout of the Turkish coup is not clear yet, this is a huge victory for the Muslims in Turkey and Muslims in Europe, since it is a severe defeat for the Brussels and Washington elites. According to our analysts, Berlin will do whatever it takes to keep Turkey within its sphere of influence. The elimination of Erdoğan has failed, but Berlin’s BND, London’s MI5 and Washington’s CIA are probably discussing the next step.
NATO is further weakening, with or without Turkey.
References [ + ]
|1.||↑||Turkish Military’s Influence Rises Again, Wall Street Journal 2016-05-15.|
|2.||↑||No support from the West for Erdoğan during coup Source Gefira 2016-07-18|
|3.||↑||Secretary Kerry’s Call With Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, US Department of State 2016-06-16.|
|4.||↑||Chomsky is voted world’s top public intellectual Source The Guardian 2005-10-18|
|5.||↑||EU opposition to Turkish accession is ‘racist,’ Chomsky says, Euobserver 2010-10-12.|