Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow




Europe in Crisis: Bosnia’s break-up unavoidable

A next Balkan war in Bosnia is a matter of time. The Republic of Srpska is planning on holding a referendum next Sunday, 25 September, on a seemingly minor issue1)Bosnia’s Republika Srpska to hold controversial referendum despite ban Source BNE Intellinews. The Bosnian Serbs will be voting on the date of the “national independence day.” This referendum seems, however, to be a run-up to to a referendum on the splitting up of the country. The Serbs want to secede from Bosnia and become part of Serbia, claiming their democratic right on self-determination2)War Talk Grips Balkans Ahead of Bosnia Vote Source Balkan Insight.

Let us brush up on our historical knowledge. The Balkan war started with the secession of Slovenia and Croatia from Yugoslavia. The West, in an attempt to break up the whole country, forced President Milosevic to accept the independence of these two republics. In 1992, encouraged by the West, Izetbegovic, the Bosnian leader, called for a referendum on independence.

The Muslim leader knew that the Serbs in Bosnia would not accept this. According to his testimony, Izetbegovic was deliberately provoking a civil war. After a bloody civil war and NATO intervention the warring parties signed the so called Dayton Agreement. The agreement’s purpose was to promote “peace and stability” in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and to endorse regional “balance” in and around the former Yugoslavia.

Bosnia by all standards is a failure from its inception. The country comprises tree entities with three separate presidents, three armies and tree ethnicities. The Orthodox Serbs, Muslim Bosniaks and Catholic Croats display an utter contempt for each other. Nevertheless, Brussels and Washington believed it was a good idea to force them to become a multicultural “nation”.

Bosnia and Hercegowina

The upcoming referendum will be the next blow to Brussels’ elite. To counteract the Serbs in their attempt to gain independence for Srpska, the EU accepted Bosnia’s membership application last week3)EU accepts Bosnia’s membership application; a long process ahead Source Reuters. It is also possible that the Serbs want to be independent before their fate is sealed within the European Union. Brussels is now in an extreme hurry to take Bosnia as a new member state. The Serbian leadership are maintaining neutrality as they do not want to distance themselves from their brothers in Srpska and at the same time show too close a friendship with Brussels4)Serbia is against the holding of the Republika Srpska referendum Source InSerbia 5)Serbia vows to protect Bosnian Serbs against ‘threats’ Source TRT World.
As we have already pointed out, Moscow is looking now for every opportunity to counterbalance the Brussels-Washington-NATO alliance. It has come down as no surprise that Putin reassured Milorad Dodic, the president of Srpska, of his full support for the planned referendum, during the latter’s visit to Moscow last Thursday6)Putin tells Dodik referendum is “right of people” Source B92 . Brussels (and Berlin) has to understand; creating enemies comes with a price.

The breakup of Bosnia will negatively affect European security. The coming fight between Muslims, Orthodox and Catholic Christians will attract Jihadists from Syria to the mainland of Europe. Rumour already has it that ISIS has a foothold in Bosnia7)The Black Flag in the Balkans: The Islamic State’s Links to Bosnia Source Vice.

Turkey has become a regional power in its own right and exerts its influence over the Balkan. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said during his October 2013 visit to Kosovo: “We all belong to a common history, common culture, common civilisation. We are the people who are brethren of that structure. Do not forget; Turkey is Kosovo, Kosovo is Turkey!”8)Erdogan: ‘Kosovo Is Turkey’ Source Al Monitor thus signalling that his Ottoman ambitions are not limited to Syria.

As a preparation for the coming war, Washington and Ankara are now training the Bosniaks in Turkey. The Bosnian Croats were also invited, yet they refused to participate9)TURKEY: BOSNIAN TROOPS IN TRAINING TO REVITALISE POST WAR ARMY Source AP.

Since 2011, Turkey and it secret service MIT has become the transit hub for Jihadists from all over the world into Syria. No doubt Ankara, with American support, will send battle-hardened, experienced fighters from the Caucasus, Iraq and Syria into Bosnia to counter Russia. Russia and the Serbs are its number one enemies. Since 1980 the US in collaboration with Saudi Arabia has been using Muslim extremists and Jihadists to oppose Russia whatever the collateral damage may be. Now it is Europe that will have to pay the price. A Balkan war with Muslims involved will infuriate their co-religionists in Europe, which will have its effect on the security in countries with large Muslim populations like Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and France.

Security agencies in Europe are warning that Jihadists have a network expanding from Turkey to European capitals10)First on CNN: 30 to 40 ISIS suspects at large, European officials say Source CNN. A war in the Balkans will give these organisations a strong foothold in Europe with readily available arms just 450 kilometres from Vienna, Austria, a city with a 12.5% Muslim population11)List of cities in the European Union by Muslim population Source Wikipedia. The Muslims trained by the USA and Turkey, to counter the Serbs in Bosnia will not stick to the Balkan, they will venture into Europe and carry out terrorist attacks in the streets of Vienna, Berlin and Paris.
A war in the Balkans will also increase the migration crisis adding to the chaos that the US triggered in Iraq and that is now spilling over into Europe.

References   [ + ]

1. Bosnia’s Republika Srpska to hold controversial referendum despite ban Source BNE Intellinews
2. War Talk Grips Balkans Ahead of Bosnia Vote Source Balkan Insight
3. EU accepts Bosnia’s membership application; a long process ahead Source Reuters
4. Serbia is against the holding of the Republika Srpska referendum Source InSerbia
5. Serbia vows to protect Bosnian Serbs against ‘threats’ Source TRT World
6. Putin tells Dodik referendum is “right of people” Source B92
7. The Black Flag in the Balkans: The Islamic State’s Links to Bosnia Source Vice
8. Erdogan: ‘Kosovo Is Turkey’ Source Al Monitor
9. TURKEY: BOSNIAN TROOPS IN TRAINING TO REVITALISE POST WAR ARMY Source AP
10. First on CNN: 30 to 40 ISIS suspects at large, European officials say Source CNN
11. List of cities in the European Union by Muslim population Source Wikipedia

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>


GEFIRA provides in-depth and comprehensive analysis of and valuable insight into current events that investors, financial planners and politicians need to know to anticipate the world of tomorrow; it is intended for professional and non-professional readers.

Yearly subscription: 10 issues for 240€
Renewal: 160€

The Gefira bulletin is available in ENGLISH, GERMAN and SPANISH.

 
Menu
More