Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow




Will France be the first European country with a Muslim president?

The French ruling class has made ignorance the cornerstone of their policy as they are repressing the dawning awareness that the influx of people is changing their nation. Forever. The society is undergoing a profound demographic transformation it has not witnessed the likes of which since 500 AD and still the government does not keep track of the ethnicity and religion of its inhabitants. Instead, the French establishment propagates the “We are all French” mantra, repeating a strategy that failed during colonialism.

History teaches us that nations change profoundly when Islam becomes an important force. Still, the French elites believe that this law will miraculously not hold good for France. After the colonial period, they saw the French culture disappearing in South East Asia and Africa; now the same is going to happen in their own country. Muslims will not be a majority for many years to come yet, but soon, within one or two decades, they will become one of the most influential political forces.

There are said to be about 6 mln Muslims living in the country, and growing, so they make up almost 9% of the population.1)How France’s Muslim population will grow in the future, The Local 2017-12-01.The real number can be much higher and even 7 million seems realistic. To put this in the political perspective: Macron received 8.7 and Le Pen 7.7 million of the votes during the first round. During the legislative election, Macron’s party, En Marche, which won a “landslide” victory according the media, received just 7.8 million votes.

The number of Muslims needed for a Muslim party to become France’s second or even first largest party is now within the demographic reach. Does a run between a Front National candidate and an Islamic candidate sound unrealistic? Twenty years ago if you had predicted that London would have a Muslim mayor, you would have been considered a far-right scaremonger.

This perspective has become even more realistic now when Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia bought a $300 million-worth Castle2)$300m French chateau bought by Saudi prince linked to Leonardo purchase – report, The Guardian 2017-12-18.and is likely to put his money to work to shape the French political landscape. The Saudis are very successful in buying political influence in East Asia. In Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim country, they are a driving force behind the Wahhabi movement and they are financing Dewan Dakwah Islamiyah Indonesia (the Indonesian Society for the Propagation of Islam, or DDII) and Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Islam dan Arab (the Institute of Islamic and Arabic Studies, or LIPIA).3)Saudi Religious Influence in Indonesia, Middle East Institute.We are in to see a repeat of this activity in France and elsewhere in Europe.

Different sources give different numbers. The Gefira team puts the number of Muslims in France, the majority of whom are migrants rather than asylum seekers, at way over 6 mln.
According to the Pew Research Center, in 2050 France will have in between 8,6 and 13, most likely 12,6 mln Muslims, which will be almost 1/5 of the population, which most likely is an underestimation. As the median age of Muslims is 27 while that of non-Muslims 43, the former will expand at a faster pace.4)Europe’s Growing Muslim Population, Pew Research Center 2017-11-29.

In 2006 France became home to the largest population of Muslims in Europe and according to some estimations in 2004 about 20-30% of people under 25 belonged to Muhammad’s followers who at that time also made up 15% of the French army. Small wonder then that the French are worried about Islam’s militancy of which the youth is the driving force.5)Is France on the way to becoming an Islamic state?, The Telegraph 2004-01-26.IFRI (French Institute for International Relations) published a report stating that about 15% of the soldiers are immigrants and most of them are from North Africa. The Paris elites maintain that all these soldiers are devoted to the Fifth Republic, rallying around the motto “Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité”, and that they regard Macron and his wife as “l’esprit de la nation”. The reality will be different. In France not only is the police the target of many attacks by the youth from the Maghreb but also the fire department is seen as their enemy.6)Nîmes: 5 ans de prison pour avoir agressé un sapeur-pompier, FranceTvInfo 2018-01-31.It shows a deep disconnect between the state services and some of its citizens.

Also conversions to Islam or acts of submission to Islamic culture have increased, mainly among young people, and converts, many of them with a migrant background, are a significant factor contributing to the terrorist threat.7)More in France Are Turning to Islam, Challenging a Nation’s Idea of Itself, The New York Times 2013-02-03.In 2014, Marseille was said to have an estimated 30-40% Muslim minority and was recognized as the most dangerous city in Europe. The phenomenon is not limited to this city alone. According to and assessment, only 800 thousand from the overall Muslim population have a legal job.8)Liczba muzułmanów we Francji doszła do 6 milionów. Nie zgadniecie ilu z nich pracuje, Pikio information website 2017-05-05.

Many indigenous French do not want more Muslims in their country and are calling for some restrictions on immigration, which in turn meets with resistance from the Muslims, who have been accustomed to feel in France better than at home. Due to their veil of ignorance the French intelligentsia, media, cultural elites and political elites have created a society which will be torn between two groups only, nationalists and Islamic migrants, with either denying the other the right to Frenchness. After French culture was removed from Asia and Africa, it cannot be taken for granted that it will not disappear from Europe.

References   [ + ]

1. How France’s Muslim population will grow in the future, The Local 2017-12-01.
2. $300m French chateau bought by Saudi prince linked to Leonardo purchase – report, The Guardian 2017-12-18.
3. Saudi Religious Influence in Indonesia, Middle East Institute.
4. Europe’s Growing Muslim Population, Pew Research Center 2017-11-29.
5. Is France on the way to becoming an Islamic state?, The Telegraph 2004-01-26.
6. Nîmes: 5 ans de prison pour avoir agressé un sapeur-pompier, FranceTvInfo 2018-01-31.
7. More in France Are Turning to Islam, Challenging a Nation’s Idea of Itself, The New York Times 2013-02-03.
8. Liczba muzułmanów we Francji doszła do 6 milionów. Nie zgadniecie ilu z nich pracuje, Pikio information website 2017-05-05.

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