Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow

Sweden will remain Sweden but just in name

For some time now the Gefira Team has been keeping track of the demographic processes that are taking place in Europe, especially in its Western part. This time Gefira published a report on Sweden, a well-developed, typical Western state, member of the European Union. The report includes independent calculations, using dedicated demographic software Cerberus 2.0. The report is based on the input that is taken from the official bureaus of statistics.

The Gefira findings based on the official data provided by Statistics Sweden SCB reveal what follows:

  1. the fertility rate of native white Swedes is much lower (1,6) than the country’s overall fertility rate (1.9);
  2. the Swedish parental system fails to deliver more babies;
  3. the number of children with an Islamic name is growing at a fast pace. Since 2010 it has increased by more than 30%, so that now around 8 to 10% of the newborns in Sweden have an Islamic name.
  4. the native white Swedish population will be a minority within a maximum of 40 years. The same source shows that 22% of the newborns have a non-Western migration background.

To compensate for the low birth rate the government is pursuing a systematic re-population policy. That is why it can be claimed that the Swedish community will grow in numbers at a moderate speed in the foreseeable future. The SCB statisticians cannot have come to this conclusion on the basis of the Swedish childbearing numbers nor on the global migration trends. The said growth remains and will be a result of importing highly fertile women from low and medium HDI (Human Development Index) countries.

The future of the Swedish population is bleak. On the basis of official fertility and death rates Cerberus 2.0, software designed for demographic calculations, computed the number of births and deaths for each age group, starting in 1970. The number of white native Swedes grew until 1996 and from there it began to decline in a more or less straight line. In 2017 there were again 8 million people and by 2060 there will be 6.6 million Swedish people left. If the authorities are not able to turn the tide and increase the fertility rates of Swedish women, the population will decline to 5 million by the end of the century. While the calculations predict that there will be 8 million natives left now, the current official data show that there are even fewer Swedes with two parents born in Sweden.

Due to the continuation of the influx of immigrants, the current population is 10 million. According to Statistics Sweden it will be 14 million by the end of this century. The Swedish authorities regard only first and second generation immigrants as foreigners. After one generation a sprawling Pakistani community relocated to Malmö will be regarded as natural Swedish growth.

Another approach is to look at the difference between the computed population and the official numbers. If Cerberus 2.0 forecasts 7 million people in 2050 and Statistics Sweden expects 12 million, the difference is due to migrants, whether it is the first, second or fifth generation.

The forecast made by the Swedish authorities is rather a blueprint or plan for the future than a prediction. Comparing the projection made by Cerberus 2.0 and those made by the state planners, the Gefira report expects the Swedish to be a minority by 2066 i.e. by the end of this century only one-third of the population will be of Swedish descent, which means almost a total re-population.

36 comments on “Sweden will remain Sweden but just in name

      • In fact, white Swedes may become a national minority even sooner (much sooner in the big cities), as the migrants and their native political allies double down on importing more exotics, in order to prevail once and for all before any effective resistance can mobilize, and demoralization and white flight take hold amongst the already pretty submissive and defeatist whites, beyond a certain tipping point there could be a shift of millions in a decade or so, and whites could already become a minority by 2050 or so (Africa alone will have another billion people by then, likely even more ready to emigrate), and a hopelessly divided one at that, with maybe half or even far more more still committed to the replacement agenda, the ‘Final Solution of the Swedish Question’, even when it is nearing completion, out of ideological or personal profit/power/relationship causes. Each younger generation grows up more acclimatized to its own minoritization in its own homeland and less inclined to resist it, not knowing anything else anyway. Sweden is clearly run by a clique set on the elimination of the native white majority in Sweden, as a test case for the same process across the West, with the end-state for the whites being similar to that of the South African whites now, a hated and hounded minority approaching the precipice of final genocide.

  • Hi Dan ,Please explain the evidence supporting your argument, either/or the reasons Gefira’s evidence is flawed.
    Yours Jozef Struik

  • Passer by says:

    Where is the data saying native swedish TFR is 1,6 out of total 1,9 for the country? I have seen studies where it showed 1,8 out of 1,9.

    Swedih women historically had higher birth rate compared to other euro countires.

      • The Board says:

        If SCB believes it is 2.0, why are they using complete different numbers for their projections? We did our own calculations from the available data it is much lower.

        These are the numbers SCB uses for 2018
        Sweden 1,66
        Nordic countries excl. Sweden 1,61
        EU excl. Nordic countries 1,46
        Europe excl. EU and Nordic countries 2,08
        High HDI excl. Europe 1,69
        Medium HDI excl. Europe 2,34
        Low HDI excl. Europe 3,15

        • Which projections?

          The graphs in the report I linked (p. 15) show the cohort fertility. That is the number of children that has actually been born by women when they hit 45 . This number is between 1,9-2,0 in Sweden for native born women with two native born parents – read the report. Nothing points to that women born in the late 70’s have any less children. The so called “Total Fertility” may vary from year to year, but it does say much about how many kids that are actually born.

          • * does not

            Btw I don’t agree with your assumption that “Swedish parental system is an expensive failure;”. The only difference between Sweden and say Germany or Poland (countries with low fertility), is the paternal system. This system means women do not have do chose between work and having kids. As a conservative I would probably prefer a system where women were housewives, but that’s not how reality looks like. Western girls of today want to work. If the “paternal system” means we can keep up a descent fertility rate , than that’s a good thing.

          • Passer by says:


            Actually the fertility rate of scandinavian countries these days is nothing spectacular, for 2017 it is 1,79 for Sweden, 1,77 for Denmark, 1,71 for Iceland, 1,62 for Norway and 1,49 for Finland. If you remove the immigrant fertility rate you will probably get around 1,7 in Sweden, 1,55 in Norway, 1,72 in Denmark, 1,7 in Iceland and 1,48 in Finland. In other words nothing big.

            The data you posted is about older cohorts but if you look at TFR of scandinavia countries in recent years it dropped to relatively low levels. So there is no evidence that the scandinavian system works, there is nothing special in TFR of around 1,7 or lower, considering the fact that even some eastern european countries manage to get around 1,7 as well.

            I still do not think that it is 1,6 for Sweden, thats atypically low, but the situation is not good and the scandinavian system is not working as far as TFR is concerned. Especially interesting is the downtrend in some scandinavian countries where TFR is declining in recent years. Ireland these days manages to get a bit higher TFR than most scandinavian countries, and i think conservative US states have higher TFR as well. Actually the areas with the highest white TFR in the world are conservative areas – Utah state, USA (2,1), Argentina (2,2) and Ireland (1,8), but for Ireland it was also around 1,95 for the last 10 years on average.

        • Answer about TRF in Scandinavia:

          Yes, but then again TRF doesn’t say much. We had over 2,0-2,1 a couple of years around 2010. 1,9-2,0 is the actual fertility rate, and that’s OK. It’s not great, but it’s OK. There are not many other western countries with the same level. I guess perhaps the white christians in the US have higher fertility rate with no other insensitive than God old mighty, but for secular people there need to be some economic insensitive to get the birth rate up. Gen X och and millennials are significantly less religious and that is driving down the fertility rate for whites in the US. Even Victor Orban in Hungary gives benefits for people who have a lot of kids – so this isn’t really a right vs left kind of a question.

          The rest of Scandinavia have lower birth rates than Sweden, with the exception of Iceland – probably one of the few white countries that reproducing it self.

          • Passer by says:


            Actually Sweden never managed to get above 2 the last 20 years, it consistently stayed below 2, so i suggest you take off the rose glasses. The average TFR for Sweden for the last 20 years is 1,8. If you remove the migrant fertility you will get somewhere closer to 1,7 for white native swedes. Therefore this is definitely not “OK”.

            Republican US states, Ireland, Argentina and Uruguay get higher TFR than that. Some eastern european countries get around 1,7 too. As far is child support is concerned, although i personally support it, the studies that i saw mentioned that is having very little impact on raising birth rates. so it largely does not work as far as raising TFR is concerned. Right now there is not a single white country where whites reproduce themselves, with the possible exception of Argentina and Utah state, USA. Iceland no longer reproduces itself.

            Also there are other issues, such as dysgenic fertility, where educated women have even fewer children. IQ is dropping even in countries with far fewer migrants, such as Finland and Iceland. So educated women will have to have even higher TFR than 2,1 In other words a societal change is needed, where western women will have to have more children, as the current western system does not work anywhere.

      • Make More says:

        Where in that report on page 14 -15, you just linked to, can you see that these are “native born Swedish women, with two native born parents”? All I can see is that it just mentions “Kvinnor
        födda i Sverige” (Women born in Sweden). That is not the same thing as ethnically Swedish women. You can’t compare the two like you just did.

        • I stand corrected. However there will be very very few non ethnically Swedish women (or should I say white woman, there will a few Italian, Yugoslavian, Finnish and German guest workers, but who cares?) born in Sweden between 1940-1970. There will be a few of course, but not enough to make it statistically significant. When we have the cohorts from the 1980’s and 1990’s however…. That will be a different deal.

          About the European guest workers. Around 50% of people “with foreign background” are children to these people. The asylum seekers from the third world doesn’t make up the whole of the group “foreign born” och “foreign background”, that’s important to remember.

    • The UK government has far more detailed data than the Swedish. The UK office of national statistics has data covering the numbers of different ethnic groups all across the country and their age distribution.

      London which has a slightly smaller population size than Sweden had a population in 1971 which was: 87% white British, 5% other white, 1% from Muslim backgrounds, 4% (non muslim) black backgrounds and 3% from Asian (Non Muslim backgrounds)

      By 1991 this had changed to: 72.4% white British, 7.1% other whites, 7.7% black (non muslim), 8.2% Asian (non Muslim ) and 4.6% Muslim

      By 2011 the city was no longer majority White British: 44.9% White British, 13.7% other White, 14.8 % Asian(Non Muslim), 13.2 Black/Mixed Black (Non Muslim) and 13.4% Muslim.

      The 2011 census also revealed what the child population was in London: 37.3% White British, 12.7% other White, 14.5% Asian (Non Muslim), 13.8% Black/Mixed (Non Muslim) and 21.7% Muslim.

      The example of Greater London shows that the demographics of a considerable region can alter quite significantly over the course of 40 yrs. The next UK census will be taken in 2021. The Department for Education in England also carries a census of the government funded school population each year. Across London in 2018, around 26% of the school students aged 11 to 18 yrs were White British.

      The estimates (taking 2011 as the base year, and the fertility rates for the national statistics office and the yearly migration statistics) for 2021 give the population of London as. 32.8% White British, 15.1% other White, 17.3% Asian (Non Muslim), 16.3% Black/Mixed (non Muslim) and 18.5% Muslim. This will represent a significant change, not just from 1971, but from 1991 (within the living memory of anyone over the age 40.

      The demographics of London are not uniform, there is considerable various from district to district.

      An area of East London and north of the river Thames, covering the districts, of Tower Hamlets, Newham, Barking, Walthamstow and representing about 10% of the total population of London (800,000 people in 1991). Had a population which in 1971 was: 85% White British, 3% other White, 3% Asian (Non Muslim), 6% Black (Non Muslim) and 3% Muslim.
      20 yrs later by 1991, it had changed to: 62% White British, 4% other Whites, 9% Asian(Non Muslim), 11.1% Black (Non Muslim) and 14% Muslim.

      The next 20 yrs saw a rise in the population of this region of East London from 800,000 to 1.15 million and a significant demographic change. 2011: White British 27.4%, other Whites, 11.9%, Asian (Non Muslim) 15.1%, Black (Non Muslim) 15.6% and Muslim were 30%.

      The Child population of East London: 17.2% White British, 10.2% other White, 13.5% Asian(Non Muslim), 14.5% Black(Non Muslim) and 44.6% Muslim.

      Sweden in 2010 was similar to London in 1971. It is not beyond the wild realms of possibility that the changes that London saw happen over 40 yrs, could also happen in Sweden by 2050. The analysis given here, shows Sweden actually having a slower transformation than Sweden, with the native population only declining from 87% to 58% by 2050. This simulation predicts that it would take Sweden 65 yrs to experience a similar change as happened in London over 40 yrs.

    • Forget Europe? Then forget the West, and forget the white race. Then forget democracy, and forget the world.

  • A quick clarification, does Sweden cross over to minority majority in the year 2066 or “within a maximum of 40 years” aka a max of 2058?

  • If we look official data we will discover that during 2017 Sweden has accepted 90.000 migrants which has come from non EU countries.
    40 years x 90.000 migrants = 3.600.000 and this is without children which will be born in Sweden and without migrants which has come until now

    There is no need to tell anything else

  • Kesselman says:

    The most important statistical implication for the future. This site is necessary to compensate for the lack of genuine information on the matter. Sweden like other EU member states is more than hesitant to deliver today’s facts about the catastrophic import of unskilled saboteurs of the Western culture.

  • Nogger White says:

    Where do you find data on native white Swedes? Not from the SCB, surely? In official Swedish statistics, you’re misleadingly defined as a “Swede” as long as both of your parents were born in Sweden. I have never seen the SCB deviate from that, at least not during the last few decades of post modern insanity.

  • Leo Grellede says:

    In my view is astonishing to read the replies to this article. All people discuss about how many they will be, whether the parental system is good or not…The truth is the the migrants are a specific project to change the Europe and the Countries with less population will disappear first. In few years the years the migrants will have a Party, an Islamic arty, with Islamic requests and the rule of the majority will be the end for the Sweden people. Please take a look to Diyanet. Last but not least: 2 or 3 years in Arab Countries living and working: it will be very useful to understand what is the phenomenon of the migration.

    • Douglas Mackinnon says:

      I grew up in Africa- I have seen racial conflict. There will be a racial civil war throughout all of Western Europe long before Swedes or anyone else becomes a minority. There may also be genocide. This is because the new migrants will not be successfully integrated, and young native Europeans will put up a fight before seeing their future destroyed. There’s going to be chaos in Europe, remember my words.

    • Yes, there will be only two options: mass deportations/ removals of ethno-cultural aliens, or elimination of white native majorities and ultimately minorities too. The ones running and collaborating in this replacement are planting the seeds of civil confict and war that will make the 30 Years War look minor by comparison.

  • You killed 6,000,000 educated western Jews and god gave you 20,000,000 savage Muslims ready to rape your daughters. Was it really worth it?

    • EdwardIofEngland says:

      You mean the 200,000 Jews who died due to disease and lack of food caused by the allied bombing? How does this justify the ethnic genocide of Swedes?


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

GEFIRA provides in-depth and comprehensive analysis of and valuable insight into current events that investors, financial planners and politicians need to know to anticipate the world of tomorrow; it is intended for professional and non-professional readers.

Yearly subscription: 10 issues for €225/$250
Renewal: €160/$175

The Gefira bulletin is available in ENGLISH, GERMAN and SPANISH.