Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow




The new normal in Europe: increasing population, decreasing GDP.

Leading European politicians and economists argue that the influx of immigrants is an economic necessity. Naturalization of foreigners implemented for the purpose of executing a re-population program (resembling the Sinicization of Tibet) has become a national policy in most European countries. Replacing the dying European population with workers from Africa and the Middle East is supposed not only to save national economies and support the pension systems but also to boost economic growth. Basic economic indicators, however, show that the opposite is true.

 

A year ago The Economist wrote that migration is beneficial to the global economy.1)A world of free movement would be $78 trillion richer, The Economist 2017-07-13. The Gefira team has shown that economic immigrants are more frequently beneficiaries of social benefits, and are less professionally active than non-native Europeans.2)The Economist: sending 1.2 billion unskilled Africans to Europe will increase world GDP, Gefira 2017-09-26. Our analysis is also validated by the scientists from the University of Basel. 3)Zuwanderung kommt den Bürgern langfristig teuer, Kronen Zeitung 2018-08-29. The result is that indigenous Europeans have to provide for immigrants.

The fertility rate among indigenous (i.e. white) Europeans has been below replacement for nearly half a century, while that in African countries is approaching 5. It is because of the continuous inflow of high-fertility people 4)Highly fertile women from Africa are the secret of Swedish high birth rate, Gefira 201-08-14. that the populations of France, Sweden, the United Kingdom and other European countries enlarge, but the hard fact is that it does not translate into a higher GDP, which in France and the UK has been in decline since 2008, and in Sweden – since 2014. Not only is the GDP dwindling, but also GDP per capita.

 

Unemployable Africans and Central Asians will be an additional burden on the aging and shrinking European population slowing down economic growth even further.

References   [ + ]

1. A world of free movement would be $78 trillion richer, The Economist 2017-07-13.
2. The Economist: sending 1.2 billion unskilled Africans to Europe will increase world GDP, Gefira 2017-09-26.
3. Zuwanderung kommt den Bürgern langfristig teuer, Kronen Zeitung 2018-08-29.
4. Highly fertile women from Africa are the secret of Swedish high birth rate, Gefira 201-08-14.

12 comments on “The new normal in Europe: increasing population, decreasing GDP.

  • You are racists. When the population decreases in a country that country needs people to work instead of others who are retired and the old economy’s economy is getting small and the country produces some goods. who will take care of old people in Germany.

    Reply
    • when the population decreases in a country. The country loses many people as they are old. The country needs labor to work instead of others who are retired and old. Other economies will be small and the country produces little goods. who will take care of old people in Germany. You’re just thinking about race. you are racists and fascists.

      Reply
    • Koenraad Peeters says:

      Also a good morning,
      There is no indication that immigrants from Africa and Middle-East will take care of old people in Germany.
      Most of these migrants are simply “dhimmi seekers” and not interested in participating in society. They seek a country where non-muslims pay social security (Dhimmi) to muslims.
      Dhimmi is a sharia principle in which non-muslims pay half of their income to muslims in return for. Muslims in return only promise not to kill them and not to confiscate their goods. Taking care of elderly non-muslims is not prescribed in sharia.
      Although some NGO advocate the contrary, being against unrestricted migration, advocating the protection of indigenous European population from annihilation, and not accepting that sharia law replaces human rights is not racist.

      Reply
    • god, are you stupid. put away the racist comments you plonker. Sure, a decreasing populations needs more workers. But, no one needs all the illiterates who come to good old Europe.

      Reply
      • Yet, filthy illiterates from Africa and the midde East is EXACTLY what’s coming in!

        We do need more workers, but we need more WHITE INDIGENOUS EUROPEAN workers! Should replacing our own people be a better choice rather than import third world trash who ADD to the welfare state and not work??

        Reply
  • Replacing retiring high skilled workers by importing low skilled workers by definition will reduce labor productivity.

    Further, importing low skilled labor into a redistributionary welfare state does not help pay for public pensions and other welfare state benefits for retiring high skilled workers, but rather increases the demands on the importing nation’s welfare state as the low still and thus low income immigrants start taking benefits.

    Simple mathematics.

    Reply
      • Have a closer look into the state of African nations; is it all about external factors or has it something to do with the people? It all boils down to the question “is God a racist?”

        Reply
  • Steven Kopits says:

    The decline in European GDP in US dollar terms was the result of the shale oil revolution collapsing oil prices and materially restructuring the US trade deficit away from oil and towards manufactured goods. This was achieved by an apprecation of the US dollar against virtually all the currencies of US manufacturing trading partners, including those of Europe. Thus, the decline in European GDP from 2014 as shown above is directly attributable to US shale oil production gains.

    The appropriate measure of underlying European performance would be GDP measured in constant local currency, the Euro or GBP, as the case may be.

    Here we can see that GDP growth rates have been positive, if unspectacular, since 2011. By country, the average real GDP growth for the 2011 – 2018 period has been:

    France: 1.1% real GDP growth
    Germany: 1.7%
    UK: 2.0% (is Brexit really hurting the British economy?)

    https://www.princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2018/9/10/gdp-in-europe

    Immigrants, to the extent they are working, will be adding to GDP. On the other hand, low income immigrants in countries with generous social safety nets will be a net drain on taxpayers. This has nothing to do with their immigrant status necessarily, and everthing to do with the nature of the welfare state in these countries.

    I think you are working too hard to make a point here.

    Reply

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