Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow




Yield curve inverts: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005

Shortly after 10 a.m. GMT on Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dipped below the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury as the 10-year fell 1 basis point below the 2-year. The yield curve inversion has a strong track record of predicting a recession; each of the last seven recessions (dating back to 1969) were preceded by the 10-year falling below the 2-year. Source: Yahoo Finance


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