Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow




A Citizen’s Snapshot of South Africa, September 2019

Despite being a second-class citizen in South Africa,1)‘Whites feel like second-class citizens’ – FW, IOL 2007-03-11.I may still express my opinion2)What You Can And Can’t Say in South Africa Freedom of Expression, ResearchGate 2006-01.in a country that has declared itself a democracy.3)Democracy in South Africa is not real, IOL 2019-04-29.This article is therefore written in the context of “Fair-Discrimination”4)Discrimination, SA Federation for Mental Health.meaning that I am not allowed to discriminate against any person of colour, but that any person of colour may discriminate against me for the content of this (white) article (even if it is published in a different country – in which case I should use a pseudonym).

South Africa, a country with roughly the size of Texas and a population of less than 60 million people, has 9 provinces and eleven official languages. There are two main cities, one of which is Cape Town – the seat of parliament, and Pretoria – the seat of the government and home to the diplomatic corps. Besides, Johannesburg is the business and Durban the harbour city. Cape Town is also home to hi-tech because of the juncture of undersea cable connections and a preferred destination for royal elites who are attracted by its mild Mediterranean climate. Unfortunately though, Cape Town is also the world’s murder capital. That this would affect the economy is no surprise.

South Africa has dropped down the World Economic Forum’s competitiveness index since this graph was produced. Although work fatalities fell by 45%, mortality increased significantly due to HIV/AIDS. With every tenth person being suspected of carrying HIV, the related deaths are around 200 000 to 400 000 a year. This is compounded by the mortality of pedestrians, farm murders and political assassinations.5)Hit Men and Power: South Africa’s Leaders Are Killing One Another, The New York Times 2018-09-30.

Demographically, the country is growing at less than 1.5% per year, with a GDP growth of 0.5%, unless the 11 MILLION immigrants are included of course. This increases the density per square kilometre to 50, whereas the projected maximum is 70. Regardless, GDP and population are INVERSELY correlated. That is precisely why demographic growth is NOT an economic benefit in Uganda;6)The impact of population growth on economic growth and poverty reduction in Uganda, Econstor 2007.NEITHER is it in South Africa:

The competitiveness curve was INVERTED to illustrate the negative correlation with black population growth. On 4 September 2019 the World Economic Forum met in Cape Town.7)South Africa, World Economic Forum.The mirage of “this being an African century” is displayed (again) while subtle efforts to manipulate the blue line (downwards) will be discussed based on factors identified by a previous WEF Global Competitiveness Report (GCR), depicted below:

The WEF will not be recommending more babies or immigrants anytime soon. The newly elected government (essentially re-enlisting the same key people from 10 years ago) is dusting off economic planning that will (again) result in more retrenchments, meaning the Unions are up in arms. More about this later, but in the meantime business is upbeat and the country’s currency has improved (in the 2nd quarter) which is something investors can appreciate because Moody’s Rating Agency will be less likely to downgrade South Africa to junk status.

The reason the IMF is newsworthy (today) is because Argentina is also in the doldrums and has successfully applied for the Fund’s loan. South Africa thinks itself (much) better and is unwilling to accept such “help” despite having done so 20 years ago. If one projects the competitiveness curve based on the last 20 years linearly forward into the future, South Africa will have dropped to the same level where Argentina is today by 2030.

White flight has accelerated since 2016. That government, companies and even civil society is trying to stem the tide, which reveals the magnitude of the problem. A government economist said that we “have the plan” and that it must just be “implemented” while a local developer just completing a R 3 BILLION hi-rise office building in the Johannesburg financial mile begs the government to improve “jobs” before anything else. These arguments are literally 10 YEARS old, going back when the corporate world realized during the preparation for the 2010 Soccer World Cup that this government could plan, but would never be able to implement. This phenomenon was then called the vertical integration gap. It highlighted a chasm between policy formulation and its execution. For example, development itself is a cause of conflict in Africa.8)Social Conflict and the African One-Party State, A Master of Arts thesis 1971.This means that a vertical break in communications is dangerously vulnerable as was confirmed by the Cameroonian study of Rebellion as a Lifestyle.9)Rebellion as a Lifestyle: Representations of Youth Revolts in Cameroon, SUNScholar Research Repository 2010.

Closer inspection of the current governing political party reveals that it is in alliance with labour unions and communists, without which it is unlikely to win an election. The Communist Party thinks itself better equipped to promote Communism than its erstwhile counterpart did it in Russia and the Unions sit on the same side as the government at the salary negotiating table. From a Western perspective it is essentially an unworkable situation, but Western diplomats ACCEPT that the blacks will forever remain a majority “victim” based on the unfair discrimination at the hands of a 5% minority of Afrikaner. Accordingly, the SA Constitution recognizes the majority as a victim.

That the country has a flawed constitution was also conceded by these victims because after all they don’t have ALL the land (yet). For some unknown reason the newly elected government has thrown a red herring by legalizing the idea of land grabbing. The political opposition party suspects the effort to be a media stunt as a means to hide activities towards some other objective, such as grabbing the last honeypot: pension funds. This is a credible idea because money gained in this way can be used to assuage labour unions and make them accept retrenchments while communists will appreciate “equal land distribution”. Private pension funds will be used to get businesses to perform towards the 21st century.

Today’s reality is that the Zulu King and the Afrikaner Civic Society (Afriforum) oppose the land grab projections because it is being implemented incorrectly. They “know” that “property” includes pension funds which the government requires access to for paying “business” to create jobs. The land issue is not really the issue because the majority of the area belongs to the majority already. The Zulu King’s land is managed by a trust which he does not want to exchange for a simple title deed because then he would be forced to subdivide, provide services and pay land taxes to municipalities. That ALL the other kings and tribal chiefs also living on trust land understand this dilemma is unsurprising. For example, most housing developments in South Africa are currently on trust land because such land is for FREE. If title deeds get enforced, it won’t be and all this construction will come to an end.

Communists in South Africa make the mistake by thinking that their followers are the “proletariat” while in reality they are the precariat. Essentially these are the “cooks and cleaners” that are quite malleable as to what perceived leaders of new political parties such as the media friendly “Economic Freedom Fighters” ought to demand. This new underclass is quite attracted to “protests” of any kind, based on the same rhetoric the ANC Youth League practiced before the EFF was founded in 2013. In other words they will protest for anything that appears to be morally correct which is in all cases against white people and their interests. They will never protest against a Zulu King.

That South Africa is the protest capital of the world is therefore no surprise and there are three reasons for it:
(1) the Youth League has been politicized;
(2) the labour unions mobilize voters regularly;
(3) the tribal culture is of a feminine hue, which means that happiness and equality rather than performance are of primary importance.
The major yearly service delivery protests are shown in the graph below.

Service delivery generally relates to provision of water and electricity by municipalities, of which 80% have gone bankrupt because users don’t pay. Recently “xenophobia” has been added to the menu of protests. This is a misnomer (of course) because it is actually Afrophobia which the governing party does not want the world to see. Xenophobia (against Whites) sounds better than Afrophobia against “brother” blacks. As Malema tweeted: “Our anger is directed at wrong people. Like all of us, our African brothers & sisters are selling their cheap labour for survival. The owners of our wealth is white monopoly capital”

All this actually started last week with “policemen” delivering drugs to Pretoria taxi ranks with their Nigerian accomplices. So the people beat the cops up, went after the Nigerians, and then the phenomenon spread around the country.

What is noticeable is that the South African Police Headquarters are located in a Pretoria City area called Sunnyside, which is controlled by Nigerian overlords. Most foreign diplomats also work near Sunnyside. They can see what is going on there, but remain indifferent as they know that they are not in danger themselves.

The reasons why sympathy strikes and protests have picked up across the country are as follows:
(1) the labour unions with their infamous mobilization ability don’t want retrenchments; and
(2) the Zulu King doesn’t want to lose his land;
This is politics of extortion pure where a protest will always be used to “request” some sort of payment such as “shares”, salary, housing or “service”.

The country is still operating by the first world standards. Tourists arrive and leave (mostly), products are made and sold, the stock exchange made a small dip and money flows in and out as normal despite some wealth being stacked in foreign havens. Some business experts predict that second generation blacks, those who never experienced Apartheid, will be able to pick up from where the old leadership failed.

What most forget is that the first generation black leaders had a much stronger financial rand, which is FOUR times weaker today and is expected to be 7 times weaker in 2030 as compared to the US dollar. Economic improvement requires a stronger Rand.

Since the magical scenario will not work and a realistic solution appears unattainable, some people hope for the “invisible hand” to appear out of this turmoil. This is possible via the Neoliberal World Order (and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is its part), but the Neoliberal World is in dire straits itself and while its elites may be sympathetic to the Mandela legacy, their answer will be: we gave you a country, what more could you possibly expect from us now?

The country is receding beyond its defensive lines on all sides resulting in the pervasive formation of Dark Organization10)Introduction to Dark Organization, Amerika 2016-01-30.and hampered by its overbearing Feminine Culture Dimension.11)Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions, B2U 2017-06-17.The performance needed to multiply its economy five times will not materialize. Therefore the prognosis today is that current trend(s) will continue with occasional fluctuations.

References   [ + ]

1. ‘Whites feel like second-class citizens’ – FW, IOL 2007-03-11.
2. What You Can And Can’t Say in South Africa Freedom of Expression, ResearchGate 2006-01.
3. Democracy in South Africa is not real, IOL 2019-04-29.
4. Discrimination, SA Federation for Mental Health.
5. Hit Men and Power: South Africa’s Leaders Are Killing One Another, The New York Times 2018-09-30.
6. The impact of population growth on economic growth and poverty reduction in Uganda, Econstor 2007.
7. South Africa, World Economic Forum.
8. Social Conflict and the African One-Party State, A Master of Arts thesis 1971.
9. Rebellion as a Lifestyle: Representations of Youth Revolts in Cameroon, SUNScholar Research Repository 2010.
10. Introduction to Dark Organization, Amerika 2016-01-30.
11. Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions, B2U 2017-06-17.

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