Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow




France before the election?

France is in the midst of a serious political crisis. It will come to a head – at the latest – before the presidential elections in April 2022.

Macron’s governments showed how alienated the French elites are from their people. The largest street protests in the country’s history (since the 18th century French Revolution) of the Yellow Vests, mass strikes against the planned pension reform and the extremely strong – compared to other, for example Eastern European countries – anti-lockdown movement showed that Macron’s legitimacy comes from the Rothschild bank, where he started his brilliant career, rather than from the people. The guillotine of the people, however, can decapitate, excuse me, sweep away from the political scene all three main candidates for the office in the Élysée Palace next spring. After all, with the coming wave of autumn viruses and rising prices at the farmers’ market, who will believe in Macron’s promise of revival through development of the more carbon-neutral economy? Who will believe in his “republican patriotism” in the country where Muslim associations, tightly intertwined with Arab clans, rule the streets of the big cities? Where retired generals openly call for a coup d’état “in a perilous mission to protect their civilisational values and their fellow citizens on the national territory”?1)Frankreich: Pensionierte Offiziere drohen mit Putsch, Handelsblatt 2021-04-28. Who will believe Le Pen, who is distancing herself more and more from the conservative ideas well thought out by her father by, for example, completely discarding the idea of withdrawing from the Schengen Agreement? Who will believe that her demand to lower the retirement age from 62 (the lowest in OECD countries) to 60 is sensible and feasible in the face of the coming inflation and the Paris debt mountain? Uneducated migrants, the shrinking middle class or well-educated elites? Le Pen and Macron are getting closer and closer, like enemies who have been shooting at each other in their trenches for too long. Le Pen renounces “radical” ideas and Macron proposed his security law to reassure civil servants. With her proposals for pension reform, isn’t Le Pen serving the bankers who own France’s debt and warmly welcome the bankruptcy of any state? Implementing her idea of earlier retirement would double the deficit of the pension system (by about 37 billion euros)2)Christopher Dembik, Saxo Bank, interner Bericht für Kunden der Bank, 27.07.21.. As for spending: when Macron, the super-specialist in finance, took office in 2017, French ministries spent €3 billion. With his magic wand, he will make it to 11 billion of the common currency annually next year.

The third candidate who can supposedly (according to the leading media) create some buzz in the elections is Xavier Bertrand. The former minister of Sarkozy and MP for 12 years is, however, a trump card of the elites prepared up the sleeve, which will be pulled out at the right moment – if Macron starts to fail. His programme lies between right and centre, the details remain secret until the last moment, as is usual in France: talk of the well-known transparency of the best-known, established parties of the democratic West of Europe. It doesn’t matter what he talks about – his charisma is equal to Merkel’s, which is zero.

In our opinion, the real fuss will sooner be made by the “street”. Please remember Peppe Grillo in Italy, who went from comedian to battering ram against the ossified, old political parties. In 1981, another comedian Coluche got 15% of the vote in the presidential elections in France. The latest case of the Ukrainian president also teaches us that with the right financier like Kolomoyskyi, you can reach the top in politics, even if you used to only provide entertainment for the masses in cabaret. Thus, figures like Eric Zemmour (right-wing radical, but of Jewish-Algerian descent) or the comedian and actor Jean-Marie Bigard, who so blatantly represented the Yellow Vests, are potential candidates for the office of one of the most important countries in Europe, if the grassroots movements take over the helm of the country from the street or if the masterminds of world affairs so desire. Choose for yourself which variant will convince you. The purely linguistic analysis of the names of some of France’s parties does indeed point to a “revolution”: the radical left France Insoumise (Unbending France) led by Jean Luce Mélenchon, Parti animaliste (Party of the Animals) – read too much Orwell? – by Hélène Thouy, La République en marche (The Republic on the Move) by Macron and other bankers. Have your choice, dear French people.

References   [ + ]

1. Frankreich: Pensionierte Offiziere drohen mit Putsch, Handelsblatt 2021-04-28.
2. Christopher Dembik, Saxo Bank, interner Bericht für Kunden der Bank, 27.07.21.

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