Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow

The West is preparing a second front against Russia

Little is written about this in the Western media – in fact nothing – and meanwhile tensions are rising in Kosovo. Let us recall: Kosovo – part of Serbia, the historic cradle of Serbian statehood – was separated from Serbia by the West without a corresponding decision by the United Nations. Most Western countries recognised Kosovo’s independence on the basis of the right of peoples to self-determination. Somehow the same motivation did not work in the case of Crimea and Donbass, but let us leave these details aside.

The direct triggers of the current tensions are as follows. One is that the authorities in Pristina, the capital of Kosovo, have taken the decision to order all drivers to change their licence plates to Kosovar ones. The Serbian minority still living in Kosovo has resisted. The Serbs have right on their side: as Kosovo is still part of Serbia, the introduction of licence plates other than those of Serbia is not legally mandated. Another reason for tensions is the unclear case of a police officer of Serbian nationality who was arrested by the Kosovo authorities. The Serb minority reacted very strongly: barricades were erected in the streets in towns where Serbs live.

As if this were not enough – or perhaps precisely to escalate tensions – on 15 December this year Pristina submitted an application for Kosovo’s admission to the European Union. Although several members of the Union – and these are Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain – do not recognise Kosovo’s independence, which blocks even the consideration of a membership application, for some reason Pristina took this step. Apparently, it got the signal that such a step should be taken right now. This begs the question: what is going on in the Balkans again? What is it all about? Well, the answer is rather obvious.

In Europe, Serbia is the only country that has friendly relations with Russia. Belgrade, despite pressure from the European Union, has not joined the sanctions imposed by Brussels on Russia. President Vučić – even if he wanted to – is not in a position to pursue a policy hostile to Moscow because the overwhelming majority of Serbs consider the Russians to be friends and Russia to be an ally. This is due to the fact that Serbs and Russians are Slavs, that Serbs and Russians are peoples who profess Orthodox Christianity; finally, Serbs feel gratitude towards Russia for the fact that in the late 19th century Russia fought against Turkey, which ruled over Serbia for centuries, and for the fact that Russia stepped in to defend little Serbia in 1914 when Austria-Hungary declared war on Belgrade. Anyone who has read and remembers Leo Tolstoy’s “Anna Karenina” will recall that one of the main characters, Anna Karenina’s lover, a Russian officer, goes to war with Turkey precisely to defend the Serbs. True, Russia did not help Serbia in 1999, when NATO bombed it for 78 days, because Russia itself was then in deep political, social and economic crisis.

What did the policymakers in Berlin, Paris, London and Washington have in mind? They have thought of killing two birds with one stone. The powers that be are putting pressure on Belgrade through the unrest in Kosovo to force Serbia to join the sanctions. As long as Belgrade resists this, the unrest in Kosovo will continue to grow. This is one of the goals the West wants to achieve. The other is to hit Russia in the one place in the Balkans where it has political and cultural influence. Of course, it will be impossible for Moscow to help Serbia, as Serbia has become a landlocked country, surrounded by NATO members. However, Russia will have to undertake something, and this will deplete the effort it is currently putting into defeating the West on the military training ground that goes by the name of Ukraine. 

If Belgrade does not relent, i.e. if Belgrade does not join the sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, provocations in Kosovo will increase, which may lead to the Serbs wanting to deploy their own troops there. There are already reports that such decisions have been taken and that some Serbian units are moving towards Kosovo. It is a well-known fact that if a state or even an individual is constantly provoked, no matter how peaceful and restrained the provoked state or individual is, sooner or later this state or individual will have to give vent to psychological tensions and will have to move to offensive actions, to aggressive actions. And although these actions will be nothing more than self-defence, the so-called public opinion, which knows whom to condemn from the mass media, will be instructed by these media that the Serbs are behaving badly AGAIN. The retaliatory actions, the aggressive actions provoked by the provocations in Kosovo do not have to be carried out by the government in Belgrade at all; such actions can be initiated by the people, or more precisely by some organised group of Serbs. This group, we can be sure, is already being prepared by the intelligence services of Western countries. We can also be sure that in Serbia too (as in Ukraine) some Azov battalions are being formed: they will spin out of Belgrade’s control and attack Kosovo. This is what the West is just waiting for. Then – the scenario we should already know by heart – voices of feigned horror and outright condemnation will be raised, there will be a pretext – sorry: a serious reason – to attack Serbia under the pretext of protecting the poor, innocent Kosovo Albanians from the Serbian aggressors, to overthrow the government in Belgrade by holding a maidan in the Serbian capital, to put a ruler on the Serbian throne (the likes of Tsikhanouskaya of Belarus spring to mind) who will impose sanctions on Russia, recognise the independence of Kosovo and play nice with the European Union. Isn’t that what happened in Ukraine?

Let us recall. Yugoslavia was a federation of republics: the Soviet Union was also such a federation. Serbia was the largest, most important republic; within the USSR it was Russia that was the largest and most important republic. Kosovo is to Serbia what Ukraine is to Russia: Kosovo was the cradle of the Serbian state – Ukraine was the cradle of the Russian state. Today in Kosovo, Serbs are a persecuted minority; today in Ukraine, Russians are a persecuted minority. The West supports Kosovo against Serbia; the West supports Ukraine against Russia. Kosovo would like to belong to the European Union and – probably later – to NATO just as much as Ukraine would like to belong to both. Kosovo is used by the West as a tool to put pressure on Belgrade; Ukraine is used by the West as a tool to put pressure on Moscow. Only the Serbs are to blame in the conflict between themselves and the Albanians – this is how the Western media portray it; only the Russians are to blame in the conflict between themselves and the Ukrainians – this is how the Western media portray it. No major countries outside the European Union and NATO – such as China, India or Brazil – are hostile to the Serbs; the same major countries are not hostile to Russia, even though the Western media want to impress upon their audiences and readers that the whole world condemns Serbia and Russia.

Let us not forget that on the territory of Kosovo, the Americans (who, in order to give the impression that the base is international and belongs to the Kosovo Force or KFOR, have invited small units from Turkey, Greece, Italy, Hungary, Slovenia, Poland, Switzerland and Finland to cooperate) have set up a huge war base for themselves – Camp Bondsteel. This fact alone sufficiently explains why Kosovo must be separated from pro-Russian Serbia. Something similar is what Washington wanted for Ukraine. Alas, big Russia is not little Serbia and hence the current war in Ukraine. Will it be the only war in Europe currently?

The tension in the Balkans could also lead to another outbreak of hostilities though in a location far away from Ukraine. If it comes to this, it will be like opening a second front in the West’s collective war against Russia, a front against Serbia, Russia’s ally. Admittedly, Russia does not have physical access to Serbia to send it armaments, ammunition and fuel. But let us remember that also in 1914 – the year the First World War broke out – Russia had no direct access to Serbia. Western politicians at the time thought that the Balkan conflict would remain confined to the Balkans. It turned out to have spread to the whole of Europe, to the whole world. Have contemporary politicians forgotten this? One could say that they have forgotten, if they had anything in their minds to remember. One must assume that knowledge of the past is not their strong point. Nor are they adept at drawing conclusions. If those who play the great game on the geopolitical chessboard know history and are able to learn from it and yet act as they do, then clearly they care nothing about the fate of millions of people. Besides, why should they? They themselves and their families will not suffer from any war that breaks out as a result of their actions. Ursula von der Leyen will continue to wear her fashionable outfits and fashionable hairdo, and will continue to proclaim with feigned concern how sorry she is for the casualties and the refugees, and how she would like to bring the villains Putin, Lavrov and Vučić before an international tribunal. And who knows? Maybe even her colleagues will arrange for her to receive a Nobel Peace Prize for her actions. And you know what? She will receive this price wearing yet another fashionable costume and yet another fashionable hairdo while millions of people will continue to suffer severely and… needlessly.

Shot from a Zdravko Sotra film „Boj na Kosovu” or „Battle of Kosovo” (recommended to watch)

based on the drama by Ljubomir Simovic about the 1389 battle that sealed

the fate of Serbia for centuries to come.

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