Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow

Gefira 70: Can you correctly interpret the signs of the times?

“You know how to interpret the appearance of earth and sky, but why do you not know how to interpret the present time?”1

If one knows much about the rules of a game, and if one looks at a given moment of that game, it is not at all difficult to predict with a high degree of probability how the various players will behave. If one knows the properties of a particular chemical, it is not at all difficult in principle to predict how an organism will react to it. Finally, if one is familiar with past events, then seeing a similar play of forces, factors and data, then future in its general outline holds few secrets.

Consider Yugoslavia. What was this country like? A federation, made up of several nationalities and several religious denominations. It included related nationalities and nationalities completely alien to each other. This mixture was held by the strong hand of someone who nowadays would be called a dictator. Somehow this political entity functioned. Furthermore, Yugoslavia was envied by all citizens of the socialist countries of Eastern Europe and praised by citizens of Western countries. Then, as a natural consequence of things, the dictator died and the country fell apart with a bang into several parts. The breakup lasted almost a decade and manifested itself in cruel murders, rapes and destruction.

The authors of Gefira invite readers to entertain just such rational predictions about politics, society, economy and finance. The authors of this issue of Gefira ask readers not to cling to wishful thinking, but to brave reality as it is, and not to believe that things are different now because… No, nothing is different. There are laws that operate in the history of humanity as there are laws that operate in physics or chemistry. If we want to pretend that those laws don’t exist, or that we can act against them, we will be doomed to make the same mistakes forever. Fighting against nature – and man with his instincts, psyche and all biology is part of nature – is as ridiculous as fighting against laws in the sciences.

Going back to the example with Yugoslavia: since the attempt to peacefully hold together nations and faiths has failed twice, since there has been slaughter, rape and destruction accompanying the inevitable breakdown twice (first in the years 1941-1945, then in the years 1991-1999), then why try again and again to conglomerate nations, faiths and anthropological types a third time? Why create Yugoslavia 3.0, the Soviet Union 2.0 or any other union 1.0? because humanity has grown out of its “wild instincts”? Please…

1 Luke 12:56, English Standard Version.

Gefira Financial Bulletin #70 is available now

  • End of the energy crisis is not in sight
  • Every age and nation has its Cassandra
  • Forecasts for the global economy
  • War Economy and the Return to Autarky

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GEFIRA provides in-depth and comprehensive analysis of and valuable insight into current events that investors, financial planners and politicians need to know to anticipate the world of tomorrow; it is intended for professional and non-professional readers.

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