The world is the stage where three superpowers exert their influence. These are, as is known, the United States, Russia and China. They compete for global power at most, or for genuine sovereignty at the very least. These three players create circles of influence whose circumferences cross themselves in different parts of the world. One of such crossing points or, better put, overlapping areas is found in the Middle East.
Surprise, surprise! Here, too, we observe three powers of lesser importance with their circles of political, economic and military influence. Those are Turkey, Israel and Iran. The states or nations within the triangle whose political apexes are Ankara, Tel Aviv and Tehran – Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, but also Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan – are mere playthings in their hands.
Turkey makes no bones about its ambition to recreate the Ottoman Empire. To this end it penetrates militarily, economically and politically Syria and Iraq as well as the nations of the Caucasus. The Ottoman Empire at the pinnacle of its territorial development covered the whole of the Balkans, the Middle East and all of northern Africa. Turkey is active in the failed state of Libya, and in the Caucasus. Turkish troops helped oust Bashar al-Assad from Syria.
Israel is credited to be wishing to extend its territory in accordance with the biblical, divine promise that was given to Israelis’ ancestors so that it can cover the area between the Nile and the Euphrates and the Tigris. With that in mind we can better understand why Israel has turned almost all its direct and indirect neighbours into enemies. It is not merely the Palestinians: it is Lebanon and Syria and Iraq. Only those neighbouring countries are safe from Israel’s attacks – e.g. Jordan – whose governments go hand in hand with Tel Aviv.
The name Iran might not resonate with every reader, but it is the modern denomination for what for centuries have been known as Persia. Now the name Persia strikes a ring, does it not? We first learn about this political actor when we study ancient history and the many wars that the Greeks fought against the Persian Empire. Persia or present-day Iran is not an Arab country, and although it has adopted Islam as its religion, Persia’s Islam is of the Shiite extraction that happens to be a big island in the otherwise Sunni ocean (with some other Shiite much smaller isles).
Countries like Iraq or Syria or a nation like Kurds happen to be geographically in the crash zone between these three local powers.
The Caucasus is another triad or trio. This trio is, true, made up of very small players, but their location makes them important. Of the three countries – Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan – the last mentioned is of peculiar importance. Unlike Georgia and Armenia, which are Christian, Azerbaijan is Muslim. The nation’s language is similar to that spoken in Turkey, which causes Ankara to be especially interested in this region. More importantly, the majority of Azeris or Azerbaijanis – inhabitants of Azerbaijan – live in neighbouring Iran. While Azerbaijan can claim a little over 8 million of Azeris, there are an estimated 15-18 million of them in Iran! Obviously, if given a chance, Azerbaijan would like to enlarge its area by “Iranian Azerbaijan”; conversely, Iran would rather incorporate the “lesser Azerbaijan”. Azeris maintain good relations with Israel: it is rumoured that some of the recent aerial attacks carried out by Israel against Iran were launched in Azerbaijan.
The Caucasus used to be part of the Russian Empire and later of the Soviet Union. The history of the region is complex, but it is noteworthy to know that Russian protectorate was very often wished by the local nations, helpless against powerful Ottomans or Persia. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union the three states have sought their separate ways, having always to face British, American, Turkish, Israeli, Iranian, and Russian meddling. They run the risk of being totally dominated by Turkey or Iran or Russia. faced with Muslim Turkey, Christian Georgia and Christian Armenia might choose to give themselves in to Russia.
On top of all these trios – (i) the United States, Russia, and China; (ii) Turkey, Israel, and Iran; (iii) Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan – there is yet another (iv) triad of three powerful global diasporas: Lebanese (approx. 15 million), Jewish (approx. 8,5 million) and Armenian (approx. 7-10 million). These are not large numerically, but have an influence far outside the Middle East, where these nations are rooted since time immemorial.
