AU10TIX or how Israelis act

AU10TIX is an Israeli identity service that verifies people or companies on the Internet. For example, people who want to earn money on Twitter (X) have their identity checked and authenticated by AU10TIX. So far, so good, but there are two appalling facts about the Israeli company:

1. AU10TIX has close ties to Israeli intelligence. It was set up by members of the Israeli elite intelligence services Shin Bet and Unit 8200. Ton Atzomm, its CEO, was a member of Unit 8200 has been committed to the surveillance of Palestinians and has been utilizing the information gained in the process to politically persecute and divide them. Edo Soroka, the Vice President for Sales in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, previously worked for the Israeli startup AnyVision, which is accused of monitoring Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. Erez Hershkovitz had earlier been employed by the Israeli company Voyager Labs, which was sued by Meta for using dozens of fake Facebook accounts to collect data from more than half a million users.

2. AU10TIX suffered a serious security breach that exposed the personal data of millions of its users. Customers that fell victim to the June 2024 scandal include some of the world’s most renowned companies, such as X, TikTok, LinkedIn, Coinbase, eToro, PayPal, Fiverr, Upwork, Bumble, and Uber. Names, dates of birth, nationalities and images of identification documents such as driver’s licenses and passports, facial scans and authentication metrics for documents and photos were disclosed. It was a massive security breach with unforeseeable long-term consequences. The exposed data could be used by cybercriminals for various illegal purposes such as identity theft, financial fraud or even blackmail.

Several questions could be brought up:

1. How does all that square with the U.S.-Israeli friendship and alliance?

2. Why does the Israeli intelligence agency want to collect – manage – control the data of millions of Americans?

3. Why do the US services do not hinder such deep intrusions into the security of US citizens?

Triad

Each Western European state is socially divided into three castes: the indigenous white population, foreign settlers, and the political class.

The indigenous white population is ethnically monolithic: Germany is the country of the Germans, France is the country of the French, England is the country of the English, Sweden is the country of Swedes, Italy is the country of the Italians, and so on, and so forth. Occasional admixtures of other ethnicities are (i) insignificant, and (ii) culturally almost identical in that they are (post-)Christian, white, European. Such ethnicities have merged over centuries making up a quasi new nations of the British, who combine the people of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland, or of Spaniards with their Catalan subgroup and so on.

The settlers by the mass media misleadingly referred to as migrants rather than (which would be far more appropriate) immigrants are increasing in numbers but are by no means a monolithic group. The settlers come from a huge variety of ethnicities, creeds and cultures and as a rule they create enclaves or ghettos or no-go zones or mini states within the state. They barely integrate or assimilate, but they are a privileged section of any Western society in that the authorities, the police, all social services back them, support them, protect them against the anger of the indigenous inhabitants.

The political class is globalist, supranational and as such intensely hostile towards its own ethnicity. In each Western country it suppresses the white – as yet – numerically dominant majority and elevates the many minorities. The political class is deracinated and denounces any real connection with the national base that it once rose from. The political class has no feeling of national or religious attachment or belongingness to the indigenous nations it governs: they don’t think in terms of the interests of Great Britain or France or Germany or Italy. They only think in terms of their own well-being.

Thus the old Marxian division into the exploiters and the exploited (or the haves and the have-nots) has been supplanted by the division into the underprivileged indigenous and the privileged incomers. These two can be and are skilfully pitted against each other by the political class. Consequently, these two keep each other at bay and let the political class remain the political class.

That the settlers are privileged goes without saying. They cannot be criticised by the white majority. Any member of the majority who dares to do so is immediately accused of being racist, which is the most heinous of crimes after antisemitism. Selected settlers are promoted to the highest positions in the state and the administration. The white majority encounters their faces in huge numbers in the mass media, the entertainment, the sports and advertisement. The racially foreign settlers are cast in historical roles of the heroes of the past of the white nations. History, by the way, is being re-written to drum it into the heads of the indigenous people that they have always been societies with diverse ethnicities. Judging by the over-representation of the settlers in culture and politics, once can get the impression that France or the United Kingdom are not majority white countries.

In ancient Rome it was much the same. Having conquered most of the territory around the Mediterranean, the Empire began to suck in foreigners who, at first, did simple jobs, with time, however, began to occupy ever higher positions. The United Kingdom, France, Belgium and the Netherlands have, too, had their overseas empires. It turns out they all have trodden the some political and historical path that the Roman Empire once did. At first the Western powers imposed their will on the far-off lands, and later they accepted the foreigners on their own European soil, enabling them gradually to hold ever more important positions of power.

Apart from playing the settlers off against the indigenous populations, the political class keeps them both occupied with (i) ecology, (ii) sexual perversity, (iii) and war on Russia, China and some other smaller “rogue” states. An average citizen of Germany or France, of Italy or Great Britain – if he takes interest in anything beyond his strictly personal business – is encouraged to join the crusade in the defence of the climate, propagate the use of the many proper personal pronouns for the many genders, and regularly take part in two-minutes-of-hate sessions aimed at the various dictators that tread the surface of the Mother Earth.

The political class promises a bright future for everyone who is complicit in the ecological, social and political project. Since an average citizen of any Western country knows next to nothing about history, economy, the finances and biology, he easily falls prey to the promises of a bright future. People have always fallen victims to such promises. Always. In a sense, therefore, the political class can rest assured that nothing threatens its position. And yet, if they only dug back into the past, they would recognize that the fate of ancient Rome is their fate. But then, I suppose, they still wouldn’t care so long as they can preserve their power and wealth. The Roman aristocracy accepted some members of the barbarian invaders among its ranks and continued to play the role of the aristocracy, even though their consecutive generations gradually stopped speaking Latin and stepwise began to speak Italian, French, Spanish, later German and English. Yet, they couldn’t care less so long as they had their castles and thousands of serfs. Latin was upheld as the language of religion, politics and academia, and so will English for a time.

Consider. Rishi Sunak’s grandparents lived in India, his parents lived in Africa, he was for a time the United Kingdom’s Prime Minister; Kamala Harris is an American of Jamaican and Indian origin. If white British or American members of the ruling class are deracinated to such a huge extent as they are, how much more are people whose immediate ancestry is so much foreign?

Spiritual fornication

Jesus Christ was officially enthroned in Rome at the time when the Empire was on its slippery road to disintegration. The United States of America, today’s Rome, braces itself for the enthronement of Waheguru, a Sikh God. Sapienti sat.

This is not a one-time event in the Western world. What we are witnessing is a psychological change of epic dimensions. Ancient Rome was the superpower of the then world, at least the world around the Mediterranean, the world encompassing most of Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East. The area controlled by Rome covered in today’s political and administrative terms: (in Europe) England, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, all former Yugoslav republics, Romania, Greece, (in Northern Africa) Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, (in Asia) Israel, Palestine, Syria, Jordan, the Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Iran. A formidable empire.

It was an empire because it was aggressive. It was an empire because it was technologically and economically advanced. It was an empire because it believed in its mission and its exceptionalism – because it believed Romans were the chosen people – and last but not least because Romans believed in their history, in their heroes and in their gods. There were no real rivals to Rome’s power. Germanic or Slavic tribes? Iranian or Persian monarchs? Greek philosophers? Phoenician or Carthaginian merchants? They were all subjugated, vanquished or turned into servile clients of the Roman state, whether Rome was a republic or an empire.

We all know that this Rome, this empire, this superpower, this magnificent culture, efficient military machine, productive economy, functional administration, advanced technology, awe-inspiring arts and literature, all of this slowly but surely went under. Why? Rome was subverted from the inside: Rome’s power was successfully challenged by a small and alien religious sect that refused to bow to Rome’s gods and patiently and stubbornly imposed on Rome its own faith. These were – yes, you are right – Christians. The mechanism of change was simple: on the one hand Romans were losing their faith, their faith in their gods and their faith in their exceptional mission, while on the other Christians – very few at inception – clung to their faith firmly, ready to pay with their own life for it, and eager to proclaiming it whenever and wherever they could. It was a gradual religious – ideological – spiritual (take your pick) – psychological takeover. Rome collapsed because Romans stopped being Romans. Yes, there are a number of explanations why Rome fell, with economic factors usually coming to the fore, but economy is really second to the collective psyche: economy collapses when there is no spirit of entrepreneurship, when there is no work ethic, when pleasure seeking supplants the call of duty, where hedonism destroys the family. As a result, oikophobia, a psychological reversal of xenophobia, kicks in. Oikophobia means self-loathing. As such, oikophobia entails the denunciation of age-old values and an embrace of foreign cultures, with the most alien being regarded as the most attractive, as the most desirable.

The same is happening to today’s Rome, to the United States of America. The country was founded by white Christians and it continued as such for roughly two centuries. The whites were for the large part of Germanic origin (the English and Germans) while the Christians were of Protestant persuasion. It was a country of proud WASPs – White Anglo-Saxon Protestants – who excluded from among themselves Catholics (even though they were white) not to mention Blacks or Indians, Chinese or Jews, whose tiny communities made their way into the United States. The famous Ku Klux Klan was all about preserving the WASP culture, the WASP identity, the WASP exceptionalism and mission. The Irish, the Italians, the Poles as papists were looked down on although they were naturalized; Indians did not have American citizenship till 1924, while Blacks did not enjoy equal rights well into the 1960s. All this was about to change, just like in ancient Rome. There appeared factors, there emerged forces that gnawed at the the roots of American WASP identity. They gnawed at the roots and proved to be eventually successful. Americans began to lose their faith in their exceptionalism, in their mission, in their superiority, eventually and above all – in their God, in their Christian God. Other faiths have wormed their way onto American soil and have become to make inroads into American culture, subverting the dominant role of Christianity. Along the lines of the Overton window, Christian values were gradually eroded, ridiculed, relativized to eventually become void of their meaning. The change has swept across the board and engulfed even the Republican Party, which is viewed as right-wing, as the one that upholds traditional values. This party is a good example of the profound psychological change that is taking place inside the American nation.

Donald Trump claims to be a Christian, a protestant Christian. His third (and current wife) Melania (of Slovenian descent) was baptized a Catholic. So far so good. Yet, Donald Trump’s daughter married a Jew and converted to Judaism with the full approval of her father. She describes the conversion as the most exciting and beautiful adventure of her life. That’s how much Donald Trump and his family care about their Christian faith.

Donald Trump has selected his future vice president – J D Vance. What do we know about him in terms of his beliefs? We know that a few years earlier J D Vance converted to Catholicism, the faith old-time WASPs would have frowned upon to say the least. Still, it is a faith of the white man, still it is Christian, still it is a specifically European creed. So much, so good. J D Vance, however, has a Hindu wife, Usha Chilukuri. Their wedding ceremony included Christian and Hindu rites.

The encroachment of Hinduism on American culture does not stop here. Former (and maybe future) President Donald Trump and J D Vance have been attending political rallies in the run-up to the November 5, 2024 presidential election, and these rallies are enriched with… a Sikh blessing delivered by a republican politician, Harmeet Dhillon, who using such opportunities invokes Waheguru – Wonderful God (in Sikhism) – with all the (at least nominally Christian) WASPs obediently listening and letting the alien enchantments sink in. Such a ceremony wouldn’t have taken place in a genuinely Christian Europe a few centuries back when people were burnt at the stake for much less. Today…

Harmet Dhillon (above) invokes a foreign god while Americans (below)

fornicate with him the way ancient Israelites sometimes did

Today a Muslim is mayor of London and of many other cities in the Western world (are there Christian mayors in Pakistan or Saudi Arabia, or Turkey, or, or, or?) while for a couple of years we’ve had a Hindu Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. You need only to answer the question if such things were thinkable even fifty years back.

Today the Catholic Pope willingly embraces foreign gods, be it at a ceremony in Canada, where underwent a religious rite conducted by an Indian shaman, or straight in the Vatican Gardens or in Saint Peter’s Basilica, where the Pope worshipped an Amazon goddess. A shocking sight to all preceding Christians, with barely anybody from among though faithful raising their eyebrows nowadays. Yet, Jorge Bergoglio only walks in the footsteps of the lay and mostly atheist Europeans who – like it happened in Davos – willingly embraced foreign spirits enthused into them by an Indian female shaman.

Psychology decides everything. Religion is a manifestation of collective psychology. Ideology is a manifestation of collective psychology. The Soviet Union fell not because it was conquered nor even because its economy was – as it is said – ineffective. Cuban or North Korean economies are said to be even worse and the two small countries are still alive and kicking. The Soviet Union – an atomic superpower and the state that was a successful rival of America in outer space – fell because its communist elites stopped believing in communism. So long as they believed in it – rightly or wrongly, it does not matter – that long they were self-assured and bellicose. They did not tolerate any other ideology on their turf – be it capitalism or Christianity. Why? Because they believed in the righteousness of communism and the backwardness and harmfulness of any other ideology. Christians did the same when they were (dominant) Christians: they did not tolerate any other religion on their turf. Tolerance was not practised. When did tolerance begin to be practised? Ah, yes, at the moment when Christians began doubting the righteousnesses and the exclusiveness and the exceptionalism of their faith. Once they let themselves be told that all faiths are more or less equally valid, they began a slippery slope of towards the end of their existence. It did not happen overnight, of course. Just as Rome was not built in a day, so Rome was not annihilated in a day. Christianity, communism – take whatever collective psyche you please – takes time to rot. But once the process sets in, it is unstoppable and leads straight to a total collapse.

Consider the parallels: ancient Roman temples were turned into churches, today’s Christian churches across Europe are being turned into mosques; erstwhile communists turned to capitalists. Five hundred years ago Columbus went on a journey to explore the unknown world on a ship that was named Santa Maria; when nominally Christian America was sending man to the moon, the spacecraft bore the name of the pagan god Apollo. Icons of the change in the collective psyche.

Think back to history and remember the role of women in the change of the collective psyche. Not the feminists of all shades. These are making coffins for their own civilization. Think about all those Hindu and Jewish and Muslim wives of white, nominally Christian men. It is through women, through wives and mothers – not husband-less and mostly childless feminists – that civilizations change, that the collective psyche undergoes a change, that children and grandchildren are raised in a different cultural code. Who was it in the Roman Empire that brought about the change? Empress Helen, Saint Helen, mother to Emperor Constantine. She first became Christian, her son followed suit. Remember Princess Olga, Saint Olga of ancient Rus’? She first let herself be baptized; though her son remained pagan, her grandson – Vladimir – accepted Christianity and along with him the whole of Rus’. It was because of that that he went down in history as Vladimir the Great. The same story repeated itself across many European nations. Wives, mothers, grandmothers induced the collective psychological change of epic dimensions.

Watch the video coverage showing the rallies during the time when the participants receive the “blessing” from Waheguru. Let us reiterate it: for the most part the participants are Christians, yet they accept another god’s blessing, they – as the Bible puts it in the strongest of terms – fornicate with another god, they transgress the very first commandment: Thou shalt not have other gods before me. You may be an atheist or religiously indifferent and yet what is stated above is not a religious statement. It is a statement of life. You either stick to a creed – conviction – identity – or else you drift freely to be tossed about by troubled waters or be suppressed by those who firmly stick to their creed – conviction – or identity. Donald Trump, J D Vance, Jorge Bergoglio, the participants of the World Economic Forum and all their followers have surrendered their identity, their uniqueness to foreign gods, hence they are all as good as conquered, subjugated, obliterated.

London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, is an observant Muslim, Great Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer is neither an observant Christian, nor a Christian in any sense of the word. His wife, however, and mother of his children (remember the role of wives and mothers) is religiously Jewish. The crosses of St George (England), St Andrew (Scotland), and St Patrick (Ireland) that make up the Union Jack, the national flag of the United Kingdom, are becoming or have already become empty symbols of the once Christian realm. The same can be said about the whole of the West. The West is undergoing a profound psychological change: its indigenous populations have lost the faith of their ancestors, its imported populations stick to the faith of their forefathers. Biological reality coupled with or compounded by the huge collective psychological change will inevitably entail the final and irreversible collapse of the civilization of the white man. White feminists are hellbent on hammering the final nail in the coffin of their own world. Their very few daughters (few, because feminists refuse to multiply) will be forced to fornicate with dominant males of different faiths and different biology. The feminists numerous granddaughters (numerous, because dominant non-white males are going to have a lot of offspring) will barely resemble their feminist grandmothers. That’s what fornication with foreign gods translates into in practical terms. Let us say it again: it is not a religious statement when you warn a nation not to have other gods before the one that is theirs.

The Chosen People had their God and that God dictated to them as the first commandment: do not fornicate with other gods. Every time they fornicated with other gods, they were severely punished. Scripture says that God punished the Chosen People. You do not need to be a believer: they were punished by themselves once they cut themselves off from their roots. That’s a provable psychological and historical phenomenon. It applies to all nations. You either drive on the left or the right side of the road. No diversity of rules is admissible because it is not feasible without causing a tremendous catastrophe. Allowing for having two gods is but a transition period before the old God is removed altogether and the new one is enthroned. It has never been otherwise, it will never be otherwise. Is America going to be Made Great Again with the help of Waheguru? Please…

The Netherlands and Germany between inflation and recession

For public finances to be healthy, the economy must be sick

The fiscal conservatism of Germany and the Netherlands clearly limits the growth potential of both countries. The 45% of economists and think tanks active in the AIECE research network consider the current monetary policy in the eurozone to be too restrictive, while only 25% consider it to be correct. In particular, the respondents pointed to the governments of Germany and the Netherlands as those that are only insufficiently supporting their economies. The budget deficit of these two countries will amount to 1.6% of GDP this year for the former and 2% of GDP for the latter. By way of comparison, the figure for Italy is expected to be 4.4% and for France 5.3%. At the same time, many countries are struggling with much higher inflation than those between the Rhine and Oder, for example. It’s like between an anvil and a hammer: either you spend less money on stimulating businesses, leading to a slowdown in the economy and ultimately to recession in the country (Germany, Netherlands), or you increase public debt and the budget deficit through excessive spending, pumping money into the economy, which brings inflation with it (Italy, France).

In 2023, it paid off to pursue an expansionary fiscal policy that avoided a recession. In terms of GDP, higher government spending in Italy and France replaced falling demand, leading to positive growth rates. Countries that cooled their fiscal policy achieved lower growth rates and in some cases paid for this with a recession (see the Netherlands, where GDP fell by 0.3% year-on-year according to the latest figures). Denmark stands out from this pattern, as it achieved growth of almost 2% despite its restrictive fiscal policy. However, it is worth noting that economic growth was boosted by the huge success of Novo Nordisk, the manufacturer of weight loss drugs. Without the pharmaceutical industry, GDP would probably only have grown slightly.

At the same time, it should be noted that the higher inflation in countries with a more expansive fiscal policy is due to the fact that government spending has had to react to cost shocks. For example, countries that are more susceptible to supply shocks due to a higher share of food and energy in the basket of goods have taken more comprehensive and longer-lasting shielding measures for ordinary consumers. However, the reversal of these measures is slow, which is also slowing down the disinflation process.

A new threat to inflation is the escalation of wage demands in the major EU economies. Figures from the European Central Bank (ECB) indicate that growth in collectively agreed wages was stable at just under 3% in the fourth quarter. At the same time, these figures are published with a considerable time lag and show a rather outdated picture that ignores the ongoing negotiations between employers and employees. A completely different picture emerges from the internet search data, where questions about pay rises are reaching historic highs in almost all major EU economies. For example, Dutch internet users are now twice as likely to search for terms relating to pay rises than in 2016-2019, i.e. before the pandemic. In such an environment, rapid disinflation is highly unlikely.

Quelle: Google Trends | Gehaltserhöhung = salary increase, Lohnerhöhung = wage increase, Loonsverhoging = wage increase, Salarisverhoging = salary increase, Augmenter = Increase, Aumento = increase

To summarize, the impact of fiscal policy in 2023 has proven to be quite intuitive and textbook, although it is worth noting that the consequences of some fiscal tools will also show up over a longer period than just a few quarters (e.g. investment, education spending, etc.). Countries that pursued expansionary fiscal policies had to accept higher inflation but managed to avoid recession, while governments that focused on central bank support had to accept recession/weaker growth but achieved lower inflation rates at the end of the year.

The political vacuum in France and the Netherlands

To what extent is Marine Le Pen a sincere right-wing, nationalist politician, and to what extent is she simply a conformist who, in her quest for power, step by step, is betraying her ideals? After all, she has long supported the programs of left-wing parties that promote gay marriage, she has begun to acknowledge the leading role of the EU, etc. She has long since abandoned or changed her most radical demands, including the demand for deportation of immigrants. And just because she is still associated with yesterday’s hard line, she promoted young Jordan Bardella; consequently, he became the new face of the National Rally/Rassemblement National movement and a candidate in the elections. The rift between their statements is immediately noticeable: when Le Pen advocates, for example, a reduction in military support for Ukraine, Bardella says that the country must not be overrun by Russia.

Betrayal of one’s own ideals comes at a high cost, as today’s events – July 08, 2024 – attest: the party of the left-turning Le Pen fared much worse than expected in the second round of elections. Bardelli’s new National Front will not come to power, but it may benefit in the long run, since the real goal is the presidency. Now the old/new Front will not be burdened with the cost of holding office and will be able to say for two years that its political opponents defied the will of the French people and “stole” the victory from the right.

What will the Rassemblement National do about the immigration problem if it ever really takes power? Perhaps it will limit itself to deporting foreign criminals (there are estimated to be tens of thousands of them), but it will never prohibit people with dual passports from holding important positions, for example, in diplomacy. That would require constitutional changes and a long march through the institutions, for which the party is far too weak. Polls among the French show that they favor limited migration in Europe and are rather negative about immigrants from outside the continent. Le Pen and her team could capitalize on this sentiment to finally stem the tide of immigration. The hope for such a future appears clearly distant today….

In France, as in the Netherlands, it is the left-liberal media that shapes minds, and these media do not tolerate any other views, and while they talk about tolerance, they prefer to stifle the entire right-wing scene, and – of course – its notorious leader. Gefira, too, has had problems publishing some of her texts in the Netherlands because of her honesty and views. The lying press, as the Germans call it, is a major obstacle in the path of the Rassemblement National to real power. People in France, the Netherlands and Germany blindly believe the media, which are believed to be of high quality, which thus function as leaders of the people. Sad, but true.

The situation in the Netherlands resembles that in France. Gert Wilders also had to find a replacement – someone to represent him in the government – and soften his views: otherwise there would have been no four-party coalition (PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB). The policy of the new government has been formulated a “manifesto” under the title “Hope, courage and pride.” Pathetic slogans like those of Macron. Mock change is the order of the day. Almost nothing is left of the right-wing ideals: the green revolution is still being promoted, taxes are being cut, labor rights are being strengthened, new housing is being built. Housing, of course, for new immigrants, whose influx is to be limited (which promise is this?). Gert Wilders no longer wants to separate the Netherlands from the EU; he just wants to “change the union from within.” That’s why he and his coalition will fail in the next elections, just like Le Pen, because in politics, only courage and consistency count. Those who do not understand this lose. The courage expressed in the manifesto of the new Dutch government is a lie. The new government will be as inept as Mark Rutte’s previous one. 14 years in power and what? What has been realized from the leftist ideals? Mr. Rutte, what do you say, for example, about the issue of women’s equality? The countries with the lowest percentage of women in leadership positions are Cyprus (21%), Luxembourg (22%) and… the Netherlands (26%). Period.

The US economy ahead of the elections

The biggest surprise on the financial markets this year is that inflation is continuing. While investors had hoped not long ago for 4 interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, there are now only 3, and with a significant delay. This underpins the thesis we have often expressed that central banks do not fully understand the dynamics of the current inflation. The indicators suggest that parts of the economy, such as real estate and the automotive sector, are struggling with high interest rates, while other sectors, such as the defense industry, the semiconductor industry, the AI industry and the manufacture of anti-obesity drugs, are experiencing a boom. So, after the pandemic, due to new IT technologies and the war in Ukraine, a two-speed economy has emerged, where monetary policy is more difficult, as supporting the weak parts of the economy can go hand in hand with persistent inflation, which is more costly for companies.

Investors try to glean from the Fed’s statements the level of future interest rates (i.e. how much the money – the loans – will cost businesses in the future). It is often the case that the worse the situation in the economy is, the higher share prices rise as investors hope that in response to weak economic data, the Fed will cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. Just yesterday (July 3, 2024) we had an example of this: the ISM index for the service sector collapsed and – excluding the Covid-19 pandemic – fell to its lowest level in almost 15 years. And Wall Street hit record highs in response.

So investors believe this two-speed economy will continue to work. Meanwhile, fiscal spending in the US is unsustainable in the long term and current government bond yields are increasing government spending related to debt, taking away funds for citizen welfare and infrastructure. The US government has to deal with the risk of an economic slowdown or risk letting inflation run high for longer. So the scenario is: whether Democrats or Republicans win, they will have to increase spending (read: inflation), which will cause the Fed to perhaps raise interest rates even higher.

Investors need to understand that the real killer for stocks is recession, not inflation. Yes, I know that the examples, such as the behavior of the stock markets in Turkey or Argentina, clearly show that high inflation need not be a particular problem for equities in the long term. But one day the moment will come: even large companies will not be able to generate higher profits in the face of expensive loans, high taxes and wages. On that day, it will no longer be worth putting money into shares. Even in the USA.

Upgrading of Russia’s economic outlook

“Russia’s economy will expand much more rapidly this year than previously expected (…) Gross domestic product is forecast to rise 2.6 per cent this year, more than double the pace the IMF predicted (…) The Russian upgrade, by 1.5 percentage points, is the largest for any economy featured in an update to the fund’s World Economic Outlook.” That’s what Financial Times has to say.

“Russia is expected to grow faster than all advanced economies this year,” announces CNBC and continues that “Russia is expected to grow 3.2% in 2024, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook published Tuesday, exceeding the forecast growth rates for the world’s advanced economies, including the U.S.” The growth forecasts for other countries are: the U.S. (2.7%), the U.K. (0.5%), Germany (0.2%) and France (0.7%), as we can read in the same source.

Also the BBC informs us that “Russia [is] to grow faster than all advanced economies” and refers its readers to an IMF report:

Oops… So many sanctions (is it sixteen thousand by now?), so much anti-Russian propaganda, the freezing of Russian financial assets, and all for nothing! Yet, the collective West – its leaders – should have known better. When did ever sanctions had their expected effect? In recent history it was North Korea, Iran and Cuba to name just a few which were severely sanctioned for years and despite those efforts to break their leaders or populations they remain politically defiant. Drawing on examples from more remote history: Napoleon Bonaparte imposed a continental blockade of the British Isles and it, too, was to no avail. The whole continent against one isolated country and the country continued to scheme against Napoleonic France and eventually brought about Napoleon’s downfall.

Notice that it is the Western media and Western agencies that speak about flourishing Russian economy. No propaganda on the part of the Kremlin, you see. The West feels itself compelled to reveal such data, data that prove how ineffective the West’s sanctions are, data that undermine the West’s policies. What are they going to do now? Impose a further two or five thousand sanctions? But then I suppose they have run out of the items they can put on the sanction list… Besides, in the face of Russia’s developing close economic ties with most of the world – be it the BRICS group or otherwise – and in the face of Russia’s self-sufficiency in terms of resources and Russia’s growing autarky, any new sanctions will fail miserably. They will effect one thing, though: they will strengthen Russian resolve to defy the West and to rely on and develop self-sufficiency even more.

The Western leaders must really be uneducated. It was during World War Two that Americans and the British used to bomb German towns and cities on a more or less regular basis, razing them with the ground. The allies pinned their hopes on the calculation that the German people, the common people, being exposed to enormous suffering, would eventually lose faith in the victorious outcome of the war and would rebel against the authorities. As we know nothing remotely resembling a loss of morale or willingness to resist the allies occurred. Rather, quite the contrary was true. The people were united behind their leaders even if some of them did not hold those leaders in high esteem. Does anyone learn anything from the past? Does anyone study past events?

With all the natural resources in their territory, with a well-developed industry and millions of educated people, Russia can really develop an autarkic economy. If additionally the country can rely on the help from China, India, Iran, Brasilia, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, then all the sanctions in the world are doomed. Why impose them then?

To save face. The Western world is in a position similar to that that the American Democratic Party finds itself in: once the party has rolled out Joe Biden, it feels compelled to stick to this candidate for president, even though it is clear that he is a sorry sight to see. In for a penny, in for a pound.