The next crisis is just a couple of years away, and Germany will be its largest victim. Economies grow, driven by capital and labour. The ECB monetary policy is currently providing the German economy with enough funds, but the country is experiencing a catastrophic lack of youth, and its ageing labour force is not being replaced as a result of which workforce is already in short supply.
Since the German population is declining at a staggering pace, before the end of the century there will only be 22 million indigenous Germans left. Currently the working population has already begun to shrink. This drop is still moderate compared to what will come after 2020. The disappearing of the nation that has just begun will have catastrophic consequences. The German government recorded a large budget surplus last year, a sign that the authorities are not willing or able to invest in their own country. Germany lacks health care professionals, road construction workers and teachers, but allocating more tax money to this sector makes no sense because there are simply no people available. For that reason road construction sites have come to a standstill and road maintenance is postponed. In order to find consumers and labourers, the German industry is investing in new factories abroad.
Gefira Financial Bullletin #22 is available now
- The economic consequence of Germany’s demographic winter
- Japan is a model for Germany’s problems
- How will the economic collapse looks like
In the past, the German economy was able to attract employees from Southern, Eastern and Central Europe, but at present the demographic situation in states such as Spain, Portugal, Italy and Poland – which have long provided Germany with workforce – has worsened, so for all practical purposes these sources of labour have all but dried out. Poland for instance has lost a large number of young people to the West European labour market and the loss has not been made good because of extremely low fertility.The financial sector depends on a growing economy, but – apart from periods of temporary increase – there is no significant growth, and banks have to unwind their positions by selling their assets and returning cash to their clients. When the ageing population tries to sell its investments – stocks, obligations or companies – after 2020 they will find a declining working age population that is willing and able to buy these assets. It is already difficult for German business owners to find successors.
The shrinkage of the consumer base affects adversely the automotive industry. This is being partly remedied by providing immigrants with handouts. The profitability of the German automotive industry depends on China, a country with the fastest growing car market. Germans, however, are only allowed to have plants in China as joint ventures with Chinese partners. As President Trump rightly noticed, German car sales come at a cost which is the transfer of knowledge. Within a couple of years, the Chinese, adopting the Japanese model, will have developed their own car industry, supplanting Volkswagen and BMW from the world markets.
The German society is like most of the Western communities heavily indebted. The growing pension obligation makes German debt obligation in the long run unsustainable. The German economy is facing the same problems as the Japanese economy, which has not grown for twenty years. Japan, Italy, and Spain (the world’s third, ninth and fourteenth economies) are experiencing the demographic winter with all attendant problems. Germany, the world’s fourth largest economy, is next in line.
Academic economists are still blind to what demographers can easily see: after 200 years of continuous growth, the population in the industrial world is decreasing. To put it simply: you cannot have your economy twice as big while at the same time having your population twice as small. Even if productivity quadrupled, there would still be too few consumers of goods and services.
In conclusion, Germany’s problems will only start to accelerate after 2020 when every year the working age population will be reduced by 400 thousand people; by 2028 this number will amount to three-quarters of a million. The disappearance of the German nation will entail the next systemic crisis.
According to the Gefira team, the next systemic crisis will happen around 2020 as the oil price is back at 100 dollar and German mass retirement begin. There is a high risk of war on the Old Continent. However, it is not Russia but Turkey that is the most prominent threat.
It is not the emerging markets, nor public or private debt that should be of interest to investors but instead the shrinking populations in the developed world. Japan is the first country that experiences a declining people, and for that reason, it pursued extraordinary monetary and fiscal policies. The decrease in the European and US population will have dire economic consequence, and after 2025 China will join the club of dying nations.
Apart from China and Russia, economic growth in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia is dependent on the developed countries which see a dramatic decline in their populations.
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The Gefira research team is the only one that is acutely aware of the importance of the current unprecedented demographic changes not seen before in all of history.
The Gefira research team elaborates its anticipation, drawing on:
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18 comments on “In 2020, German society will start collapsing”
This is clearly why Germany insists on mass immigration. Germany and its interests dominate EU thinking and policy – they are a founding member, have the largest number of MEPs and without Britain are the only net contributor to the EU budget.
Compare their situation to Hungary or Poland that are dead against it (or Britain with its chronic overcrowding and housing shortage).
You can see why the EU cannot survive – the interests and circumstances of its member states are simply too diverged as proven by the Greek Euro crisis and its causes
The German aristocracy requires livestock for their tenements and arms factories, be damned if those “refugees” never integrate (and they won’t), if the long history of Turk Muslims in Germany is anything to go by.
There is however, some semblance of method in the madness of the treacherous, ruling German elitist class.
“Count” Richard Coudenhove Kalergi’s Plan outlined by Gerd Honsik “Kalergi proclaims the abolition of the right of self-determination, … the elimination of nations by means of ethnic separatist movements or mass allogeneic (genetically dissimilar) immigration to create a multiethnic flock without quality, easily controllable by the ruling class. Kalergi characterized the multiethnic flock as cruel and unfaithful but maintained the elite must deliberately create them in order to achieve their own superiority: ‘Then the elite will first eliminate democracy – the rule of the people. Next, the elite will eliminate the people via miscegenation, thereby replacing the ruling white race with an easily controllable mestizo race. By abolishing the principle of equality of all before the law, avoiding and punishing any criticism of minorities, and protecting minorities with special laws, the masses will be suppressed.’’
“Count” Richard Coudenhove von Kalergi’s genocidal screed “Practical Idealism” 1923 in PDF format (link below) is the original Austrian NAZI and his vile tome makes Onkel Adolf’s “Mein Kampf” look like a bedtime story. This “genuis” laid the foundations for the abomination known as the EUSSR with its capital in Brussels, Natostan, province of the anglozionazi empire of eternal war.
http://www.mediafire.com/file/vcpu7j7hakukmde/Coudenhove-Kalergi-Practic…
The article is NONSENSE, claptrap, arrogance and myopia at its worst. “Growth” …. What the hell does the author mean by it? Not a word about quality of life or historical evidence. Not a word about enhanced efficiencies. Not a word about sustainability of the current population without massive imports of raw materials just to maintain the current population. The only use I can see for this would be for instructional purposes to demonstrate the current era’s flirtation with arguments full of fallacies, unbalanced formulas, and dogma.
Dear Mr Brown. Growth is the only parameter that matters in modern politics and economics. Without Growth, the western societies will come crashing down, unless we are governed by competent and bold leaders who put the interest of their community in the first place. We are sorry to inform you; there is no leadership in Europe anymore. We even dare to say Europe is not governed at all.
Germany does not need 80 million people. Why? Future scenarios will be very different from the old eternal growth in consuming. WE the people need to define what we really want!
More cars? More TV sets? More furnitures? More silly stupid junk stuff?
Its time for a reset in thinking, what life really means. Thats the main problem. The european countries have a rich culture. Back to the roots. Develop the difference.
WE don’t need one eurpean-mix-human-being. Thats Agenda 21 neofascist thinking and will not work.
yes.! “60 million in germany for 2025” whwn NOW (and also the actual statistics show) germany is 84 million and growing more for tahn year………this article is FAKE NEWS and the wish of journalist
The population is growing due to migrants. German fertility is about 1.3 since 1970. The 60 million are native Germans the difference is due to population replacement.
The German government is free to give 10 million Nigerians a German passport and call them Germans we do not buy it.
For many decades now to have children in germany was not popular! Young people were told to go for career first.
specially women were encouraged to go for career and maybe have children later. But its not only germanys problem! Japan is suffering already a very overaged population.
Southern european countries are discouraged by very bad economical situations. in the EU there is no “harmony” at all. NO transnational initiatives for education i flexibility and language. German companies could invest in Spain or Italy or even Greece.
Its still the arrogance of elites. Germany first and others are the silly customers, who cannot pay for what they purchase. Therefor Germany is Export champion. Yet the balance will never be payed.
There is NO union only Brussel bureaucracy dictating the money flow into corrupt ponzi schemes.
The EU lost due to not bringing Europe together. No identity besides the national identities. And with the migration crisis this is even getting worse. I don’t see integration. Parallel societies with no-go areas are fact.
Knife attacks are daily news! Young men from very underdeveloped countries with almost no education are lingering around with hope for quick money.
How to get out of this? Thats the question. But with the existing political elite i have no hope. They live in a parallel universe of eternal flowing cash. First for them and then maybe for others.
The financial sector as we have today is doomed. A reset is looming and a new currency basket needs to be installed.
The current fiat money debt ponzi scheme is beyond imagination for ordinary people to comprehend. It serves th rich and the elites only.
If we look at History we see that the large populations we see today and over the past 100 years are not necessary in order to have a highly active and creative society. Without taking a position we should be examining this question. As in the above is there not some path to indicate that Germany could be structure in such a way to be even more dynamic and creative than today with 40 million people given a median age of 27? Can we not question whether any economy can have high value creation with a median age of 50 years?
The real problem will be mass over production with robots, but a decreasing consumer demand.
Already car makers are making more cars than they can sell, dumping prices to clear parking lots before next model comes out, and when they can.t sell their cars, because people cant afford a car, when housing even for a 1 room apartment in main cities for students/low wage workers demand massive debts to buy, they now just lease a car, as if thats cheaper in the long run.
Gee, if I had leased my 1999 Mazda demio / 207,000 km for the last 10 years, then it would have cost double what it cost in 1999 & still going good. )) $$.
I Think some one predicted, that they would just produce and drive “stuff” straight to the rubish dump, to keep the factories going…!!!
Essentially, ONLY fiat / fake money debt can allow this, with no debt limits, so WHY work at all, if Fed / ecb/ ect can just print money…. ?
Is all this DEBT ever going to be REpaid…NO.
Hmm..So the retiring “millionairs” with their massive houses need to sell to…WHO….?….
So…are they still looking for another PLANET to colonize ..??…..with WHO.
thsi POST is Outdate.!!! recent investigations tell risen births rates (already in 2016 in 1.6 per mother in line to media european union), in 2018 is sure taht it will grow to 1.7-1.8…. recent analiziz put germany population growing (not decrasing), every year come to germany more than 600k new people and in the future will grow because climate change, etc.
The high fertility rate is due to foreigners. Destatis also gives the adjusted rates
Country of birth…. Germany……….Outside Germany……….Total
2010…………….. 1.37……………..1.58……………..1.39
2012………………1.36……………..1.79……………..1.41
2014………………1.42……………..1.86……………..1.48
Source Destatis the fertility of mothers born in Germany and outside Germany
In 2016 and 2017 fertility was up do mass migration. More Muslims and Africans less Germans
” Within a couple of years, the Chinese, adopting the Japanese model, will have developed their own car industry, supplanting Volkswagen and BMW from the world markets.”…..only that coment show the short seriusly that we should be give to this post………… chineses cars supplanting VW????? that sound like a wish of journalist than the reality
Volkswagen and BMW began exporting VW and BMWs from China. Maybe your VW is already produced in China http://wardsauto.com/vw-starts-exporting-cars-china
thsi POST is only Fake News…outdate and full of innacuracies and errors
Excellent article. Thank you.