In 2020, German society will start collapsing

The next crisis is just a couple of years away, and Germany will be its largest victim. Economies grow, driven by capital and labour. The ECB monetary policy is currently providing the German economy with enough funds, but the country is experiencing a catastrophic lack of youth, and its ageing labour force is not being replaced as a result of which workforce is already in short supply.

Since the German population is declining at a staggering pace, before the end of the century there will only be 22 million indigenous Germans left. Currently the working population has already begun to shrink. This drop is still moderate compared to what will come after 2020. The disappearing of the nation that has just begun will have catastrophic consequences. The German government recorded a large budget surplus last year, a sign that the authorities are not willing or able to invest in their own country. Germany lacks health care professionals, road construction workers and teachers, but allocating more tax money to this sector makes no sense because there are simply no people available. For that reason road construction sites have come to a standstill and road maintenance is postponed. In order to find consumers and labourers, the German industry is investing in new factories abroad.

Gefira Financial Bullletin #22 is available now

  • The economic consequence of Germany’s demographic winter
  • Japan is a model for Germany’s problems
  • How will the economic collapse looks like

In the past, the German economy was able to attract employees from Southern, Eastern and Central Europe, but at present the demographic situation in states such as Spain, Portugal, Italy and Poland – which have long provided Germany with workforce – has worsened, so for all practical purposes these sources of labour have all but dried out. Poland for instance has lost a large number of young people to the West European labour market and the loss has not been made good because of extremely low fertility.The financial sector depends on a growing economy, but – apart from periods of temporary increase – there is no significant growth, and banks have to unwind their positions by selling their assets and returning cash to their clients. When the ageing population tries to sell its investments – stocks, obligations or companies – after 2020 they will find a declining working age population that is willing and able to buy these assets. It is already difficult for German business owners to find successors.

The shrinkage of the consumer base affects adversely the automotive industry. This is being partly remedied by providing immigrants with handouts. The profitability of the German automotive industry depends on China, a country with the fastest growing car market. Germans, however, are only allowed to have plants in China as joint ventures with Chinese partners. As President Trump rightly noticed, German car sales come at a cost which is the transfer of knowledge. Within a couple of years, the Chinese, adopting the Japanese model, will have developed their own car industry, supplanting Volkswagen and BMW from the world markets.

The German society is like most of the Western communities heavily indebted. The growing pension obligation makes German debt obligation in the long run unsustainable. The German economy is facing the same problems as the Japanese economy, which has not grown for twenty years. Japan, Italy, and Spain (the world’s third, ninth and fourteenth economies) are experiencing the demographic winter with all attendant problems. Germany, the world’s fourth largest economy, is next in line.

Academic economists are still blind to what demographers can easily see: after 200 years of continuous growth, the population in the industrial world is decreasing. To put it simply: you cannot have your economy twice as big while at the same time having your population twice as small. Even if productivity quadrupled, there would still be too few consumers of goods and services.

In conclusion, Germany’s problems will only start to accelerate after 2020 when every year the working age population will be reduced by 400 thousand people; by 2028 this number will amount to three-quarters of a million. The disappearance of the German nation will entail the next systemic crisis.

The Gefira financial bulletin is a monthly periodical that the Gefira team releases ten times a year. We give a clear projection of the future of energy and politics.From Trump’s election to the steep incline in oil price and the value of bitcoin, it was all in the Gefira before it happened.

According to the Gefira team, the next systemic crisis will happen around 2020 as the oil price is back at 100 dollar and German mass retirement begin. There is a high risk of war on the Old Continent. However, it is not Russia but Turkey that is the most prominent threat.

It is not the emerging markets, nor public or private debt that should be of interest to investors but instead the shrinking populations in the developed world. Japan is the first country that experiences a declining people, and for that reason, it pursued extraordinary monetary and fiscal policies. The decrease in the European and US population will have dire economic consequence, and after 2025 China will join the club of dying nations.

Apart from China and Russia, economic growth in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia is dependent on the developed countries which see a dramatic decline in their populations.

In the Gefira bulletin we provide investment suggestions and give a coherent vision of the time ahead from a macroeconomic perspective.

On our Website, we have articles from our research team whereas in the Gefira Financial Bulletin we give a comprehensive explanation of the coming world. We focus primarily on economic, investment and strategic subjects. We focus on 2020 as the financial breaking point.

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The Gefira research team is the only one that is acutely aware of the importance of the current unprecedented demographic changes not seen before in all of history.

The Gefira research team elaborates its anticipation, drawing on:

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7 comments on “In 2020, German society will start collapsing

  • Nick Rougier says:

    This is clearly why Germany insists on mass immigration. Germany and its interests dominate EU thinking and policy – they are a founding member, have the largest number of MEPs and without Britain are the only net contributor to the EU budget.

    Compare their situation to Hungary or Poland that are dead against it (or Britain with its chronic overcrowding and housing shortage).

    You can see why the EU cannot survive – the interests and circumstances of its member states are simply too diverged as proven by the Greek Euro crisis and its causes

  • Orlovian Europeon says:

    The German aristocracy requires livestock for their tenements and arms factories, be damned if those “refugees” never integrate (and they won’t), if the long history of Turk Muslims in Germany is anything to go by.
    There is however, some semblance of method in the madness of the treacherous, ruling German elitist class.

    “Count” Richard Coudenhove Kalergi’s Plan outlined by Gerd Honsik “Kalergi proclaims the abolition of the right of self-determination, … the elimination of nations by means of ethnic separatist movements or mass allogeneic (genetically dissimilar) immigration to create a multiethnic flock without quality, easily controllable by the ruling class. Kalergi characterized the multiethnic flock as cruel and unfaithful but maintained the elite must deliberately create them in order to achieve their own superiority: ‘Then the elite will first eliminate democracy – the rule of the people. Next, the elite will eliminate the people via miscegenation, thereby replacing the ruling white race with an easily controllable mestizo race. By abolishing the principle of equality of all before the law, avoiding and punishing any criticism of minorities, and protecting minorities with special laws, the masses will be suppressed.’’

    “Count” Richard Coudenhove von Kalergi’s genocidal screed “Practical Idealism” 1923 in PDF format (link below) is the original Austrian NAZI and his vile tome makes Onkel Adolf’s “Mein Kampf” look like a bedtime story. This “genuis” laid the foundations for the abomination known as the EUSSR with its capital in Brussels, Natostan, province of the anglozionazi empire of eternal war.

  • Richard Brawn says:

    The article is NONSENSE, claptrap, arrogance and myopia at its worst. “Growth” …. What the hell does the author mean by it? Not a word about quality of life or historical evidence. Not a word about enhanced efficiencies. Not a word about sustainability of the current population without massive imports of raw materials just to maintain the current population. The only use I can see for this would be for instructional purposes to demonstrate the current era’s flirtation with arguments full of fallacies, unbalanced formulas, and dogma.

    • Dear Mr Brown. Growth is the only parameter that matters in modern politics and economics. Without Growth, the western societies will come crashing down, unless we are governed by competent and bold leaders who put the interest of their community in the first place. We are sorry to inform you; there is no leadership in Europe anymore. We even dare to say Europe is not governed at all.

      • Germany does not need 80 million people. Why? Future scenarios will be very different from the old eternal growth in consuming. WE the people need to define what we really want!
        More cars? More TV sets? More furnitures? More silly stupid junk stuff?
        Its time for a reset in thinking, what life really means. Thats the main problem. The european countries have a rich culture. Back to the roots. Develop the difference.
        WE don’t need one eurpean-mix-human-being. Thats Agenda 21 neofascist thinking and will not work.

  • For many decades now to have children in germany was not popular! Young people were told to go for career first.
    specially women were encouraged to go for career and maybe have children later. But its not only germanys problem! Japan is suffering already a very overaged population.

    Southern european countries are discouraged by very bad economical situations. in the EU there is no “harmony” at all. NO transnational initiatives for education i flexibility and language. German companies could invest in Spain or Italy or even Greece.
    Its still the arrogance of elites. Germany first and others are the silly customers, who cannot pay for what they purchase. Therefor Germany is Export champion. Yet the balance will never be payed.

    There is NO union only Brussel bureaucracy dictating the money flow into corrupt ponzi schemes.

    The EU lost due to not bringing Europe together. No identity besides the national identities. And with the migration crisis this is even getting worse. I don’t see integration. Parallel societies with no-go areas are fact.
    Knife attacks are daily news! Young men from very underdeveloped countries with almost no education are lingering around with hope for quick money.

    How to get out of this? Thats the question. But with the existing political elite i have no hope. They live in a parallel universe of eternal flowing cash. First for them and then maybe for others.

  • The financial sector as we have today is doomed. A reset is looming and a new currency basket needs to be installed.

    The current fiat money debt ponzi scheme is beyond imagination for ordinary people to comprehend. It serves th rich and the elites only.


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