Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow




The collapse of the Western middle class points towards the end of political centrism. What’s the future for democracy?

Aristotle was the first to point out how a thriving middle class is a condition sine qua non for a functioning democracy: “A constitution based on the middle class is the mean between the extremes of the rule by the rich and the rule by the poor.” That the middle [constitution] is best is evident, for it is the freest from faction: where the middle class is numerous, there least occur factions and divisions among citizens” – For those who possess the goods of fortune in moderation find it “easiest to obey the rule of reason”. . When we speak of the middle class we therefore mean the median group of society, the one representing the largest group of people by income. To clarify with a simple example, in a population of 2000 people, if 500 earn 1000€ a month, 1400 people earn 2000€ a month and 100 earn 10000€ a month, then the 1400 people are the ”middle class”. Continue reading

The US endgame is about demographics

The decline of the social, economic and political situation in the United States will accelerate under Donald Trump’s term. The mainstream media are portraying his administration as a disaster and accusing him of destroying America’s standing in the world by moves such as withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement. The truth is that Trump’s presidency and the attendant political turmoil are the symptoms of a decaying nation rather than the cause, it merely proves that the American people have had enough of the Washington government and it shows their deep distrust of the American mainstream media. Donald Trump too, is a part of the establishment, so it came as no surprise that Steve Bannon and his “populist” platform (that won him the presidency) was removed from the White House and the President embraced the military complex (that nobody voted for) represented by the likes of John Kelly, H.R. McMaster and John Mattis. His base starts to crack as they burn the “Let’s Make America Great Again“ cap as a symbol of protest on Twitter and high profile supporters such as Ann Coulter turn against his policy. With the removal of Steve Bannon the US will continue its usual policy, which means that its public debt will increase indefinitely. The fight between the media and the White House is a distraction from the real problems: Trump’s budget can only work if tax revenue is twice as much as it is now, a doubling of social security spending while military spending increases, to wit 50%. The US will try to continue its so called “preponderance” military strategy as we will explain. Even if the Trump administration is able to build a wall between Mexico and the US, mass-migration has to continue to create 5% economic growth.

Gefira #16 is available for only 25 euros. Gefira researchers expect that the downfall of the West will start in 2020. The financial and political planners should only worry about the demographics. In 2015 the European populations began to shrink, which is why the economy will never fully recover, the financial markets will crumble, and the maintenance of large armies will not be possible. Gefira #16: The US Endgame. 

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A global military confrontation?

The situation in the world raises the question of whether and when there may be armed confrontation between China and Russia on the one hand and the United States on the other.
Americans have begun to implement the offshore balancing concept which means that local powers, located far away from the US, have to take care of their own security. China’s economic and military activity is very extensive. Through the Belt and Road concept Beijing is striving for domination in Eurasia and the whole world. The conflict in Ukraine is going on, US-Russian relations are strained.

Russia feels encircled by the NATO and so is strengthening its ties with China. We can also talk about a trade war between USA and Russia. Germany and France are in opposition to Trump’s administration and the role of the United States in Europe and in the world. The effectiveness of NATO is questionable. NATO member Turkey has just bought the Russian S-400 air-deference system while Germany has put all major arms exports to NATO ally Turkey on hold. Americans do not want to lose their present dominant position. The political atmosphere in Europe and in the world is highly charged. One more impulse, one more conflict and another global war may break out. Therefore, it is well-founded to analyze forces of the global players: China, Russia and USA. Continue reading

Soros and the European Court of Human Rights: a sentence for insider trading and two judges associated with Open Society.

This article is based on the research by Francesca Totolo, which appeared on lucadonadel.it

In 1988 George Soros bought a participation in Société Générale, the French banking colossus privatized the previous year. The value of the stock of the bank would see a quick, significant increase that resulted in the French judicial opening an investigation for insider trading. George Soros joined the list of the people investigated in 1993 and finally in 2002 he was awarded 2.2€ million by the French court.

Unsatisfied with the judgment, George Soros appealed to the European Court of Human Rights in 2006; the final sentence arrived in 2011, the ECHR ruled against the billionaire. Continue reading

Ethnic tensions and Trump’s militarist flirt: the decline of the West accelerates.

How many times in history has a regime facing internal difficulties sought military adventures to “unite people behind the flag”? This time, it’s America’s turn.
The first 6 months of the Trump presidency have been characterised by an increase in ethnic tensions as US demographic shifts towards “white minority” with a significant ”Hispanic” population. The demographic change has been hailed by the Democratic Party and corporate America which promptly adopted ”identity politics” as a core ideology, exalting the individual if he (or she) belongs to an ethnic, religious or sexual minority: in practice, however, this translates into depicting “Blacks” and “Hispanics” as “oppressed”, “whites” as “oppressors” and “Asians” as “too good”, which is why discrimination against them in academic admissions is justified. Inevitably the vilification of the whites paved the way for “pride” demonstrations and the return of “white nationalism” as evidenced by the recent Charlottesville clashes. Continue reading

Beware the Chinese!

The world is on the dawn of the outbreak of a major conflict: trade war is being waged between the USA and China and between the USA and Russia, while European countries are lacking any leadership and drifting ungovernable because they have surrendered their currency and with it their sovereignty to bureaucrats. Beijing is not satisfied with the fact that the dollar is an international currency. Along with the rise of its economic power China would like to play an increasing role in financial affairs. Russia, encircled by NATO, is currently implementing a large-scale rearmament program. In 2010 Moscow announced it would have modernized 70 percent of its military hardware by 2020. In 2016 civil defense exercises were conducted, in which allegedly 40 mln people took part. In Moscow anti-nuclear shelters are being built.

When in 1937 Heinz Guderian stressed the growing importance of self-propelled armored vehicles in his “Achtung Panzer” (Beware the Tank!), not all of the military analysts appreciated the significance of the German strategist’s insight. A few years later those who disregarded this problem learned the importance of the new weaponry the hard way. Continue reading

The next step in the trade war against the United States

After the European Union has failed to implement TIPP and the European Parliament has barely accepted the controversial CEFTA against a backdrop of numerous protests, Brussels is letting in another Trojan Horse through the back door and is doing it secretly.

Since the TTIP has failed, the EU just had to think up a new monstrosity: JEFTA, an agreement on free trade with Japan that is about to be finalized and that hardly anybody has heard about despite the four-year negotiations. On July 6 the EU Commission and Japan decided to complete the JEFTA agreement. It is outrageous that the EU citizens have scarcely been informed about it. The same was true of TTIP and CEFTA: people only learnt about it when huge protests were staged. So also now the most important documents concerning JEFTA have only been made known to us through a leak affair.

As for now the trade between Japan and the EU is burdened with customs duties that amount to one billion euros annually. Thanks to the prospective abolition of customs duties the Toyotas and Hondas should become cheaper in Europe whereas the Japanese might be able to eventually afford French cheese and champagne. Sounds good, or does it? We describe below in short how dangerous the agreement is:
Continue reading

Methane clathrates: another revolution in the gas-industry in the making?

Flammable ice, as sometimes methane clathrates (or hydrates) are called, lately has become an important issue for global powers. Attaining technology making it possible to extract resource from deposits, which haven’t been up to now taken into consideration may change the face of world economy and influence the prices of LNG.

To many, methane clathrates sound unfamiliar so lets explain briefly what we’re talking about and why they haven’t been extracted yet. The hydrates emerge when molecules are surrounded by water, which becomes a sort of a cage for them. Such substance looks like ice and is present underneath the earth or underwater (yet, only there, where the appropriate tension and temperature exist). What’s important, when the conditions change, such clathrates become highly unstable and may cause huge explosions and, as a result, landslips and submarine landslides. That’s why any intrusion and extraction-attempts are extremely dangerous and complicated. However, mining tests have already been conducted for a few years. Though the estimates aren’t much reliable, it’s believed that methane hydrates contain more of gas than any other known fossil fuels put together. According to the US Energy Information Administration there may be even 2.800 trillion m3 of gas in hydrates, whereas the current global production equals up to 3.5 billion m3. So it’s possible that the extraction of clathrates would meet humanity’s demand for methane for another few hundred years.
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The decline of the social, economic and political situation in the United States will
accelerate under Donald Trump’s term. The mainstream media are portraying his administration
as a disaster and accusing him of destroying America’s standing in the
world by moves such as withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement. The truth is
that Trump’s presidency and the attendant political turmoil are the symptoms of a decaying
nation rather than the cause, it merely proves that the American people have
had enough of the Washington government and it shows their deep distrust of the
American mainstream media. Donald Trump too, is a part of the establishment, so it
came as no surprise that Steve Bannon and his “populist” platform (that won him the
presidency) was removed from the White House and the President embraced the military
complex (that nobody voted for) represented by the likes of John Kelly, H.R. Mc-
Master and John Mattis. His base starts to crack as they burn the “Let’s Make America
Great Again“ cap as a symbol of protest on Twitter and high profile supporters such as
Ann Coulter turn against his policy.
With the removal of Steve Bannon the US will continue its usual policy, which means
that its public debt will increase indefinitely. The fight between the media and the
White House is a distraction from the real problems: Trump’s budget can only work if
tax revenue is twice as much as it is now, a doubling of social security spending while
military spending increases, to wit 50%. The US will try to continue its so called “preponderance”
military strategy as we will explain. Even if the Trump administration is
able to build a wall between Mexico and the US, mass-migration has to continue to
create 5% economic growth.

Gefira 16 Content

The Trump deception
Trump’s budget doubles social security spending and taxes.
Smoke and mirrors.

The state of the Nation: united we stand, divided we fall
Finance
Demographics
The endgame

Recommendations
The dollar
Stocks
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Gefira-Bulletin #15

Gefira: Demographics and the consequence for economics and investments

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We are at the dawn of profound demographic changes that will affect every investment. The Japanese population will shrink an astonishing 60% this century.

The Gefira team has taken a year to analyze the current state of affairs in the world. The promising role of the BRICS countries has disappeared whilst the US still has the characteristics of a waning power and the European Union failed to become the world’s leader. The global economy cannot operate without decisive intervention from central banks.

The Western powers did not succeed in bringing democracy to the Middle East and the conflicts with Islamists are intensifying. Nationalism in Europe is on the rise while the global elites keep on foisting a multicultural programme on their respective societies. The increasing uncertainty, the lack of convincing economic recovery and of global leadership is the result of the far-reaching changes in demographics with no comparable historical precedent. The Gefira team is one of the few research groups that understand that the dramatic changes in the world population will have a profound effect on financial markets, emerging countries, distribution of religions, migration and geopolitics. Since populations in Africa and South Asia are exploding whereas those of the developed world are shrinking, Western establishments are opting for a full population replacement in Europe and the USA; conversely, Japan and China will keep their borders shut, and we will see a 60% population decrease there. The reversal of a population decline can take 50 to 100 years. The Gefira will focus on the unprecedented demographic shifts we are experiencing right now; in this issue we take a look at the changes in China whose (especially working) population is about to shrink and whose urbanization will come to a halt within the coming 10 years; we also discuss the strategic role of the Russian and European space programmes.

 
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