A next Balkan war in Bosnia is a matter of time. The Republic of Srpska is planning on holding a referendum next Sunday, 25 September, on a seemingly minor issue. The Bosnian Serbs will be voting on the date of the “national independence day.” This referendum seems, however, to be a run-up to to a referendum on the splitting up of the country. The Serbs want to secede from Bosnia and become part of Serbia, claiming their democratic right on self-determination. Continue reading
After almost two years of the quantitative easing program in the Euro Area, economic figures have remained very weak. Inflation is still fluctuating near zero, while GDP growth in the region has started to slow down instead of accelerating. According to the European Central Bank data, to generate 1.0 euro of GDP growth, 18.5 euros had to be printed in the QE, which means that €80 billion have thus been wasted almost every month!
This year, the ECB printed nearly €600 billion within the frame of asset purchase programme (QE). At the same time, GDP has increased by… €31 billion; even if up to the end of 2015 the ECB issued €650 billion during its QE program. Needless to say that the Greek debt is “only” €360 billion and there has been no chance of a relief, so far. Continue reading
An amiable mood has held sway over years in the European family. The Western countries went to great lengths to teach their eastern counterparts what capitalism and democracy were all about, and the East European nations obediently let themselves be dictated to. Western Europe would provide the finances for the development of Eastern Europe, and the latter would comply with the imposed precepts. The European unity flourished and no one expected the children to ever voice their political opinion. Recently, however, this idyll has been somewhat marred.
At first it turned out that one relative (Greece) could not stand on its own, next another relative (Great Britain) filed for divorce. Such news has an impact on each family. A comfortable and supportive home threatens to disintegrate and the children are getting the impression that their parents are by no means infallible and that they do not seem to have everything under control, and, to top it all, that the parents are losing their head.
It is customary for European schools to resume their activities with the beginning of September, which provides us all with the opportunity to picture ourselves back in a school bench and pore over the map of the world. Some of the facts that we learnt back then and have long forgotten might turn up handy to help us through today’s unstable geopolitical situation. Others will let us unravel the complex networks that we, accustomed to our European perspective, have lost sight of. A look at a world’s map is enough for us to put everything in the right perspective. Nowadays we are facing a number of agendas that are propagandized by the powers that be. Facts are propaganda’s most implacable enemies since they provide an average citizen with food for thought, enabling him to come up with his own worldview. Such facts can surely be found in a world’s map. Continue reading
Crude oil production in the United States has decreased by more than 10% since the record high of 2015, from 9.6 million barrels per day (mmbpd) to less than 8.6 mmbpd. However, the drop in shale oil production has reached almost 20%. Moreover, if the increasing Permian Basin production were put out of the equation, the decrease in US shale oil output would be about 33%! And this fall will deepen as the number of new wells is still not sufficient. The collapse of the shale oil production is related to the decline curve of tight oil, but shale oil well production starts to decline much faster than that from regular wells. Continue reading
In the heart of Paris’ 19th arrondissement (Flanders Avenue Metro Stalingrad Riquet) is a migrant camp. Hundreds of young men (20-30 years old) are sleeping on the streets, on cardboard, like animals. 19th arrondissement (Stalingrad) is a popular area (it is a nice place to live, I’ve been living here for over 20 years). Today we have the joy of discovering human misery, accepted by our state and our leaders and endorsed by all people “with a good heart” who think we cannot leave people from war-torn countries without help.
While Mario Draghi is pursuing his campaign against deflation that is allegedly so bad for the economy, almost all European countries with deflation have recorded quite a significant GDP growth in the 2nd quarter 2016. The only one deflation-country that is still in recession is – not surprisingly – Greece. Poland, Slovakia and Romania with an over-one-year deflation are at the fore of the EU fastest growing states.
Greece’s deflation has lasted for more than three years, but this is a special case of economics. Deflation in Cyprus has also been lasting for more than three years and still the island has been able to boost its economy. Poland, Slovakia and Romania with their longer-than-one-year deflation are in the vanguard of the European GDP growth. Short-term deflation has not damaged Spanish, Bulgarian or Hungarian growth either. Continue reading
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The ECA examined €1.4bn worth of investment in the EU’s maritime facilities, such as quays, docks and breakwaters between 2000-13. It found almost a third of this, worth €400m, was ineffective and unsustainable. The bloc’s total investment in such infrastructure during the period was €17bn. Source: Public Finance International
The International Monetary Fund called for Greece to cut pensions and taxes and for its lenders to provide significant debt relief in order for the country to make a convincing exit from the crisis. Source Ekathimerini
Investment in the construction of new houses in Greece contracted by 95 percent from 2007 to the end of June, while the drop in private construction activity from 2005 to end-June came to 93 percent based on surface area, Bank of Greece data have shown. Source Ekathimerini
Companies will spend 2.5 percent more on capital expenditure next year than they did this year, the first yearly growth in such spending since 2014, BMI Research said in a Sept. 22 report. Spending will increase by another 7 percent to 14 percent in 2018. Source: Bloomberg
Markit’s composite survey showed a big split between buoyant manufacturers and a struggling service sector, and a similar divide in growth rates among members of the currency union: French business activity hit a 15-month high, while Germany’s private sector growth slowed to a 16-month low. Source: Reuters
Americans are falling short when it comes saving money — specifically, setting aside money in savings accounts — to create a financial cushion. In fact, they’ve gone from bad to worse, according to GoBankingRates’ latest survey findings on savings amounts. Source: Money Magazine
China’s state planner has rejected a request by steelmakers for coal mines to ramp up coking coal production to bring down prices that have rallied in the face of tight supply. Domestic prices of coking coal have more than doubled to 900 yuan per tonne in 2016. Source: Reuters
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Japan’s aging, shrinking population was not a burden, but an incentive to boost productivity through innovations like robots, wireless sensors and Artificial Intelligence. Abe’s comments on Wednesday came days after official data showed that Japan has 34.6 million people aged 65 and older, or 27.3 percent of the population – the highest proportion among advanced nations. Source Reuters
A tanker sailed from Libya with a crude cargo bound for Italy after a halt in fighting between rival armed forces enabled the OPEC country to resume exports from its third-largest oil port for the first time since 2014. Source Bloomberg
The turnover of small and medium-sized retail companies in Greece has been shrinking at an annual rate of 5 percent since 2013, while the number of shutdowns in the period from 2008 to 2013 reached 30,000. This translates into a 16 percent total reduction in shops, climbing to 28 percent in Attica, a National Bank of Greece report on retail sector SMEs showed on Wednesday. Source Kathimerini
Bank of China Ltd’s New York branch has been designed as the first clearing bank in the US for handling renminbi transactions, part of the Chinese government’s move to expand the worldwide infrastructure for making the yuan a global currency. Source China Morning Post
State-owned Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) (1658.HK) raised $7.4 billion in the world’s biggest initial public offering in two years, but the deal priced at the lower end of expectations and was heavily reliant on cornerstone investors. Source Reuters
The proposed changes include provisions that would extend the presidential term from five to seven years, empower the president to appoint a temporary successor, and give the president power to dismiss parliament. The measures would aid Aliyev to tighten the grip his family currently holds on power. Source: RFERL
The results of the Russian parliamentary elections in Crimea were not legally valid in the eyes of Turkey, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tanju Bilgiç said on Sept. 23 in a written statement. Source HurriyetDaily
The U.S. House of Representatives has backed legislation that calls for supplying Ukraine with lethal weaponry in its fight against Russia and separatists in the eastern Donbas region. Тhe bill is the latest effort by Ukraine’s staunchest supporters in Washington to bolster its military forces. Source: RFE/RL
Serbia’s President, Tomislav Nikolic, has asked the Serbian military to “carry out its regular duties much more carefully” following the heated exchange of threats between Bosniak [Muslim], Bosnian Serb and Serbian officials, media reports said on Thursday. Source BalkanInsight
With the resolution of key trade disputes, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and China’s Premier Li Keqiang signalled deepening economic ties between the two countries, opening the door to the possibility of a free trade agreement. Source: Financial Post
Bosnia & Herzegovina’s smaller entity, Republika Srpska, will hold a referendum on the celebration of Republic Day on September 25 despite the decision of the state-level constitutional court to suspend it and amid strong pressure from the international community, local politicians and even the entity’s closest ally Serbia. Source: BNE Intellinews
About 200 troops from the two countries will take part in the two-week long military drills called as ‘Friendship 2016’, which have been termed as a sign of growing military ties between the former rivals of Cold war era. Source: The Indian Times
Iran officially insists six blazes over the span of three months weren’t the result of a cyberattack. However, the government acknowledgment of supposedly protected facilities being infected points to the possibility of a concerted effort to target Iranian infrastructure in the years after the Stuxnet virus disrupted of uranium enrichment facility. Source ABC
The French minister expressed anger with Belgium after Belgian police were caught driving migrants into France. Officers said they were bringing the people “in the direction they wanted to go.” French officials have issued a series of protests with Belgian authorities after having arrested two Belgian police officers caught driving 13 migrants from Belgium into France. Source Deutsche Welle
Syrian Social Nationalist Party representative Tarek Ahmad says that the war in Syria has reached a dead end, with the intervention of foreign powers turning the situation into a chaotic mess. Moreover, the politician says that Syria is just one front in a Third World War being waged by Washington and its allies. Source Sputnik
Three rockets were launched by a Russian ship targeting an operations room for terrorists in Dera Izzat west of Aleppo. According to the “Sputnik” source , there were 30 leading officers of Turkey, the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the British army and the Mossad, in the operations room running terrorist operations in Aleppo and Idlib. Source Sputnik
Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović said on Tuesday in New York that, if a new migrant wave reaches Croatian borders, Croatia would not let migrants pass through its territory since borders of neighbouring countries are closed and it needed to protect its territory. Source Total Croatia
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