Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow




Do Erdoğan and Merkel need Kurds?

There are 82 million people living in Turkey. Almost five million people of Turkish descent live in Europe (3 million in Germany, about 350 000 in Austria),including many Kurds who can play an important role in ethnic exchange in Europe. Many migrants from Syria, Iran and Iraq who come to Europe via Turkey are also Kurds. They are also important for the demographic developments in Turkey.

The lie that has been untiringly told by EU propaganda since the 1950s is that the European industrialised countries need fresh skilled workers and specialists from Algeria (in France) or Turkey (in Germany), for example, because of the constantly slowing population growth. Former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt made a fitting statement on the emigration of workers at the time of the economic miracle: “Basically, he [the then Economics Minister Ludwig Erhard] wanted to keep wage levels low by recruiting foreign workers. Instead I would have preferred the German wages to have risen”So the aim was to maximize the profits of the companies at the expense of the German workers, which ultimately led to decades of deflation and stagnation of the economy. The rest is a fairy tale of propaganda. If you take a closer look at who has come to Europe through this insane policy, you will immediately see that they are predominantly unskilled people (mainly because of family reunification) who do not fill any gaps in the economy, but form social and political hotspots and are supposed to slowly but surely exchange the indigenous population of the old continent. If we take a closer look at Turkey, we notice that most migrants do not come from the developed regions of western Turkey, but from the poor and educationally disadvantaged areas in the south and east of the country; the illiteracy rate in Turkey is on average 20%, in Anatolia even 60%. So it is not all Turks who come to Europe as migrants from Turkey, but mostly Kurds.

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Does the United States strive for a new Cold War?

Donald Trump’s administration regularly increases military presence in Central Europe. The currently discussed idea is to create an American permanent military base in Poland, that is to say, a further shift of the US military presence towards the Russian border. The question arises whether, through the constant presence of the US Army in Poland, Donald Trump wants to improve the defense of the Old Continent or strives to play against each other the interests of individual members of the European Union. The weaker Europe is, the stronger is the United States.

Although the idea of American permanent military presence in Central Europe is not new, it gained much publicity after the September meeting at the White House between Polish President Andrzej Duda and Donald Trump. Warsaw suggested not only building a base but also a name for it: Fort Trump. After initial doubts, Washington, noting the benefits which it might derive, accepted this proposal.That’s why a few days later, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis reported that certain areas are already being evaluated whether they are suitable for this purpose.Leaving aside the issue of allegedly improving the security of NATO’s eastern flank, there is more to see than meets the eye in the permanent presence of Americans in Poland. Warsaw perceives the United States as an ally in an ongoing dispute with the EU. Relations between Brussels and Washington have also deteriorated. Therefore, by relocating its troops to the east, the United States would be putting pressure on Germany to increase defense spending, import US LNG or veto Nord Stream II. Continue reading

Déjà vu: the gas conflict around Cyprus is getting worse

In early October, the Cypriot government invited tenders for gas extraction in Block 7.Ankara believes that this step impairs the interests of both Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots and announced that remedial measures will be taken, which might entail an escalation of tensions in this region of the Mediterranean.

Turkey neither recognizes Cyprus’s maritime borders nor the agreements its exclusive economic zones. Nicosia manages the gas exploration in the waters it considers its own. This leads to a conflict about which the Gefira Team is reporting on a regular basis. In February we described the complex situation in connection with the gas blocks around Cyprus.Then the Turkish navy stopped the exploration ship of Italian Eni from entering Cyprus’ territorial waters by threatening to sink it.In response, Rome sent its own ships to the region. Continue reading

Thou shalt not talk about the disappearance of the Dutch population

It is a sensitive subject to discuss the Dutch demographic reality. Since the early seventies, women have not given birth to a sufficient number of children to prevent the population from declining. According to our calculations, the native Dutch population has been decreasing for five years. Since by the end of this century the native population will have been 60% smaller while the overall number of inhabitants will have grown, it follows that the Netherlands will inevitably be transformed into a non-Western country. The Dutch establishment, like all Western ruling elites, wants people to embrace and celebrate these changes. Mathematical facts and the resultant negative consequences for the native population are framed as “populism”, “extremism” or “far right” and regarded as thought crime. Scientists who dissent, doubting whether the coming changes will be positive for the European nations, are ousted from academia.

 

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Oil at $100 a barrel is a necessity for US energy independence

The world is in a period of transition. The populations of East Asia and Europe have reached their numerical zenith, and from now on they will begin descending. With the fall of communism, China, Central Europe and Russia returned to their natural, historical positions on the world’s scene. Turkey’s ambition is to follow in the former Ottoman Empire’s footsteps: it intends to extend its influence in the Middle East, the Balkans and Africa. Europe and the US are in the process of disintegration of their respective populations.

The economic, social and political situation in Europe is tense, with people increasingly voting for anti-establishment parties. There is a deep divide among European leaders over the euro, the fiscal, monetary and immigration policy.

Gefira Financial Bullletin #26 is available now

  • The oil price needs to go up
  • Producers of cheap oil have to be removed from the market
  • Only a high oil price can buy the Saudi rulers some extra time
  • Russia energy assets more valuable than Western oil and gas companies

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The myth of the beneficial influence of immigration

As Africa’s population doubles, a lot of them, whatever the circumstances, will be coming to Europe as economic migrants or as refugees. They will be coming — many of them and that is a good thing if they come into a place with an open mind and those economies are doing well because we will be senile. We will be senescent demographically. We’ll need their youthful energy to do stuff. So, that is just what the economic statistics tell you and the demographic data demands, you know…and demography is destiny.

Such a statement was made at Ireland’s Joint Committee on Foreign Affairs and Trade and Defence by Jamie Drummond, Executive Director of ONE, a pressure group “campaigning against extreme poverty and for the transformation of developing economies and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals” whose top members include such personages as Bono, the lead singer of U2, David Cameron, former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Lawrence Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury of the United States.
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All euros gravitate to Germany

The Euro has been around for almost 20 years. The Russian transfer ruble survived 25 years. The two currencies have something in common: they were and are not a success story.

The introduction of the transfer ruble was intended to enable free trade between the countries of the Eastern bloc. The creation of the common clearing system led to the exchange rates for the East German mark, zloty, forint, lev, and even the Mongolian tugrik being arbitrarily fixed by the Soviet Union, regardless of the purchasing power of the national currencies. In the 1960s, the Bulgarian lev was 20% undervalued and the Polish zloty about 45% overvalued. Since the transfer ruble was not yet convertible into Western currencies, it remained an illusion and a means by which the Soviet Union could enrich itself and save its budget at the expense of its satellite states: the Russians bought raw materials, goods, food for convertible currencies in the West and sold them to their “socialist friends” for transfer rubels. The international bank for economic cooperation, which sat in Moscow and handled all transactions in the transfer ruble, swept the real trade surpluses and deficits under the carpet. With the political change the common settlement currency came to to an end, and it turned out that the Soviet Union owed huge sums to its “brothers”. Continue reading

Le Corbusier and Spinelli destroyed the old beautiful Europe and they still do

Why are many city parts so ugly? Why was the EU inspired by communists?

The history of European post-war urbanism with its fascination with Le Corbusier shows how often the designers of our living space were alienated. The same happened to the EU politicians: they adopted the ideas of the communists, literally and uncritically. Both – the architects and the designers of our European societies – wanted to a new brave beautiful world, but they destroyed the old beautiful world and they still do.

The father of prefabricated buildings and housing estates, the Swiss architect Le Corbusier, did not really mean it badly: his buildings should be square, practical and good. You don’t see this romanticism in today’s suburbs of Paris (the No-Go-Zones) or in most of the settlements of Central and Eastern European cities. The socialist urban planners were fascinated by Le Corbusier and designed entire cities according to his ideas. Around the beautiful old towns in Poland, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Romania, monotonous, ugly settlements for the working class emerged, focal points for social problems. The inhabitants of the Parisian and other suburbs of Western Europe, the prefabricated housing estates, which were originally also inhabited by workers, are slowly being displaced by migrants, the unemployed and the socially unfit. They feel good there: in such an architectural structure they can distinguish themselves from the rest of society in their ghetto. There they can pay homage to their lifestyle, which is of no value to society. Continue reading

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Gefira-Bulletin #26

The world is in a period of transition. The populations of East Asia and Europe have reached their numerical zenith, and from now on they will begin descending. With the fall of communism, China, Central Europe and Russia returned to their natural, historical positions on the world's scene. Turkey's ambition is to follow in the former Ottoman Empire's footsteps: it intends to extend its influence in the Middle East, the Balkans and Africa. Europe and the US are in the process of disintegration of their respective populations. The economic, social and political situation in Europe is tense, with people increasingly voting for anti-establishment parties. There is a deep divide among European leaders over the euro, the fiscal, monetary and immigration policy.

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The European Union's actions against Hungary and Poland will stir up resentment and increase polarisation. The Gefira team believe that Brexit is a sideshow. European economies are heading slowly for a new recession which will spark off another euro crisis. Italy, Spain and France will not be willing to reduce their public debt, and Italy will be the first to rebel against European budget rules. By 2020 it will be clear that France and Spain are also not able to fulfil their fiscal obligations.

The ECB is already warning that growth is slowing down. The rising price of oil will be the last straw that breaks the camel's back. European governments cannot print oil, and if consumers and producers have to pay more for energy, corporate profits will be negatively affected, and there will be less money for consumption. The 2008 financial crisis began when oil was about $130 a barrel, and the euro crisis in 2011 started when it was $125 a barrel, so when the price is again above $100, the next crisis is just around the corner.

While oil is abundant for the coming years, the 3 significant producers will keep the markets in short supply.

The Gefira 26 is about the oil price and why it will continue to increase. Although President Trump tweets that he wants oil prices down, his administration is pursuing a policy that is running counter to this statement. The US needs a higher oil price to shore up its shale industry. To this end President Donald Trump has had Venezuela and Iran effectively removed from the oil markets. This policy overlaps with the objectives of the Saudi rulers who need a higher oil price to cover their public expenses and prevent social upheaval. In this Gefira we explain why a higher oil price is inevitable and why we evaluate Russian oil companies more positively than their Western counterparts like Shell and Exxon Mobil. Read more subscribe:

Gefira 26 Content

US and oil.
The oil price needs to go up.
Producers of cheap oil have to be removed from the market.
Investors have to be attracted to investing in risky and expensive energy projects.

Saudis on the brink of a precipice.
Policies to force Saudis into the workforce.
Social upheaval in the country of Muhammad.
Power structure another threat.
Only a high oil price can buy the Saudi rulers some extra time.

Recommendations.
Oil futures.
The end of big oil companies and the political risk factor.
Russia energy assets more valuable than Western oil and gas companies.

Gefira-Bulletin #25

Gefira #25 makes an observation that the Western world is torn by two growing antagonisms which are the United States against Europe and the old European Union against its new member states. The Old Continent's external and internal policies continue to be controlled by the leftist and (neo)liberal Brussels establishment, Frankfurt bankers and the pro-migration lobbyists that are bent on changing the face of Europe. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia's authorities are planning to restructure the national economy in recognition of the fact that crude oil will slowly lose its importance due to the demographic decline and because the world’s automotive industry will soon switch to vehicles powered by electricity. Riyadh is already building mega cities where new branches of industry will become the country’s driving force.

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Gefira #25 makes an observation that the Western world is torn by two growing antagonisms which are the United States against Europe and the old European Union against its new member states. The Old Continent's external and internal policies continue to be controlled by the leftist and (neo)liberal Brussels establishment, Frankfurt bankers and the pro-migration lobbyists that are bent on changing the face of Europe. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia's authorities are planning to restructure the national economy in recognition of the fact that crude oil will slowly lose its importance due to the demographic decline and because the world’s automotive industry will soon switch to vehicles powered by electricity. Riyadh is already building mega cities where new branches of industry will become the country’s driving force. Read more subscribe:

Gefira 25 Content

From TTIP to trade wars overnight.
Trump’s pivot shifts to Asia.
The Devil’s Alliance.
Cognitive dissonance is growing.

Saudi Vision 2030: The Saudis have given up on their own nation.
NEOM or a new fantasy country.

Recommendations.
North Korea presents a tremendous investment opportunity.
The lightest metal will shine brighter than gold.
The prospects for hydrogen are even better.

 
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