Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow

The world is changing and woe to the politician who remains stuck in the rut of yesterday’s geopolitical thinking

At times, almost every decade can bring about a global change. Consider China: this weak colossus, roughly a hundred years ago torn by colonial powers, eventually became the world’s most populated communist country. As such, it naturally aligned itself with its Soviet elder brother, and this ideological alliance transpired as a huge threat to the West. Next, came Nixon’s ingenious political sleight of hand and China was turned into the Soviet Union’s rival, much to Washington’s delight. And then, when the capitalist economy adopted by the Middle Kingdom seemed to be pushing Beijing into the West’s embrace and anchoring it firmly within the global financial system, China has gradually emerged as a superpower on the rise, a challenger, to be reckoned with. At present, swerving more towards Moscow than Washington, Beijing is pursuing an ambitious policy of its own.

Much the same can be said about Turkey. A sick man of Europe at the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century, on the verge of disintegration in the early twenties of the previous century, it slowly recuperated and rebuilt some of its former greatness. Anchored in the Western military defence system, it was a reliable foothold of the free world in the Middle East and a bridgehead for possible operations against the West’s archenemy: the Soviet Union. This was not to last long, though. With the fall of the “first country of workers and farmers” and the political earthquake that took place in the following decade or so, Turkey seems to be parting ways with its pro-Western and secular policies and reviving among its population the great ambitions of the long defunct Ottoman Empire. Nor is Ankara’s allegiance to NATO a given. With the purchase of the Russian S-400 air defence system done in open defiance of Washington’s wishes, Turkey exercises its sovereignty like barely any other American ally.

Are we facing a realignment of alliances in the making in the Middle and Far East? The February Gefira issue tries to shed some light on it.


Gefira Financial Bulletin #41 is available now

  • Is the Coronavirus serving the Xi Jinping government?
  • Kemalists – Erdoganists –Gülenists
  • Turkey: The Game Changer

Money is the be-all and end-all of any country’s economy

Money is the be-all and end-all of any country’s economy. There are renowned professors of economics who maintain that anybody who says he understands money is a liar. There is something to it. History is fraught with economic and financial theories and although they operate on numbers and mathematical formulas, political parties that are at loggerheads with one another employ experts who sometimes cannot agree on the most basic issues, who advance solutions that are very much discrepant. Those who lived in Eastern Europe and are old enough to remember will have recalled that in the universities in socialist countries two incompatible types of economy were taught: capitalist and socialist. One wonders whether economy –  despite its numbers and formulas – is something more of an ideological  persuasion rather than a science.


Gefira-Bulletin #40 delves into the problem of the global financial system and its effect on countries and nations. Our analysts present the bare financial mechanism and its origin. In a world where economic and political interests of the many players are often on a collision course, in a world rife with political-cum-financial institutions, accords, compacts, agreements and banks, it is not an easy task to see through this deliberately(?) designed thicket pecuniary problems and get to the core of the matter. We do not pretend to have found the Grail, but we hope to have made the problem more translucent to our readers.


Gefira Financial Bulletin #40 is available now

  • The Global Financial System
  • Europe’s unending downturn has just begun.
  • Residential real estate
  • Gold

The Global Warming Theory Doesn’t Fit the Reality

By guest author C. van Rijn MD

We are at a crucial point in history. Climate change is seen as the biggest threat humanity has ever known. The feeling of pending disaster, guilt about the climate and a need to do penance seems to be growing in all wealthy Christian countries, but is totally absent from others. The origin of the threat is global warming which is, according to the prevailing opinion, caused by the greenhouse gases. To prevent this alleged catastrophe, we have the intention of investing an enormous amount of money to reduce the use of fossil fuels. This investment will lead to a huge economic downturn, exacerbated by the loss of economic competitiveness with other countries which will not be burdened with this scheme. This will inevitably lead to the deterioration of the prosperity of the Western countries in all areas. So before these extreme expenses are made, it may be wise to look carefully at the scientific basis underlying the global warming phenomenon.

In this article we first consider all the misconceptions and deceit rampant in public debate on this the topic of the green house effect. We arrive at the conclusion that if you omit all lies and exaggerations, the scientific basis appears to be paper-thin. Second, we hope to point out why the European version of the green new deal will be a tragedy.

The past 600,000 years
The empirical evidence for the greenhouse effect over this period has consisted mainly of a chart that suggests a causal link between CO2 and temperature levels.

The fact that CO2 increases have always occurred a few hundred years after temperature rises means that the causality is reversed: a temperature rise causes a CO2-increase. Al Gore who used this graph in the movie “an inconvenient truth” was rightly condemned in an English court for misinterpreting this graph.

The past 1000 years
The warming in this period is notorious because of the iconic hockey stick graph fabricated by hide-the-decline Michael Mann and prominently shown in the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.

Rife with warped data, mixing data from tree-rings and thermometers, hiding the medieval warming and using poor statistics, it turned out the be a plain fraud. The author filed lawsuits against the accusations, but lost them all to his denouncers.(Mann vs. Ball, Mann vs Steyn).

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Ring out the old, ring in the new

“Ring out the old, ring in the new,” a poet wrote. The year 2019 like a head of state whose term is coming to an end is outgoing and in its place 2020 is incoming. The new year will take up where the old year will leave off. Of the many concerns that we have had to deal with for the last twelve months and are going to face in the next twelve months is the question of national or individual security. Whether we like it or not, the world is driven by conflict: particular people, social, racial, economic, confessional, ideological and national groups have of necessity divergent and contradictory interests and willy-nilly or with ill-intent they position themselves on a collision course with their competitors at different levels of human activity.

The December issue of Gefira focuses on state or national security because if this can be guaranteed, if governments have a strong grip on societies and political, religious, ideological, economic entities operating within and outside the many states, if governments can settle the differences dividing countries in a diplomatic way, then the chances are relatively big that huge upheavals caused by smaller players can be stopped in their tracks.

Security is the reverse of the same coin where conflict is its obverse. Since the side that is viewed as unfavourable cannot be done away with, the only thing that one can do is strike a balance between the two. Our authors have pondered over current many-faceted threats to security which governments will need to brace themselves for in 2020.


Gefira Financial Bulletin #39 is available now

  • National security against nations
  • After 1500 years the Europeans still fail to understand the reality
  • NATO facing the end?

Immigrants are more important than fellow citizens

The European elites pay homage to their new idol: “the refugee”, the immigrant. At the same time their fellow citizens are of little interest to them. They prefer to invest in the electorate of the future: in the arrivals from Africa and Asia, who are slowly but surely replacing the indigenous European population.

The discrimination against German citizens is embodied in the new Integration Act, which gives “refugees” substantial advantages that the German government does not guarantee the German people. One example is enough: the refugees who enrich German society in this way are given free courses where, in addition to the German language, a daily four-hour programme is also offered, during which they can learn the basics of some trades. Such a programme is not available to the German unemployed.
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Greta Thunberg, a teenager berating prime ministers and presidents

Greta Thunberg, a teenager berating prime ministers and presidents over the lack of appropriate conservation of the environment, Pacha Mama, an Inca goddess in the Vatican and the Pope prioritizing the ecological sin as the gravest crime, or the Ecuadorian constitution and Bolivian legislation confers on Mother Earth with legal rights: the world is watching the unfolding events with bated breath. What is happening? Is humanity entering a new era? Is environmentalism to be viewed as a new, universal religion or a mere smokescreen that masks other objectives? The planet Earth as the human habitat can serve as the only imaginable uniting common denominator for all humankind, paving the way for a world government, or the feared the new world order. The agreements and protocols constraining and progressively eliminating the use of fossil fuels signed in Montreal, Kyoto, Paris and other places act jointly like a harness imposed on the whole planet. It is for the first time in the history of mankind that the environment rather than national, social or religious matters seem to be taking the centre stage of global politics and economy. Are we facing a Copernican revolution in the making? The November issue of Gefira takes a deeper look at this nascent phenomenon.
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Gefira Financial Bulletin #38 is available now

  • The European inability to govern has dire consequences
  • The New CO2 Order of the Crypto Elites – Dark Visions of the Future
  • Pacha Mama or Green ideology

Surgeons of our minds

A piece of stats news has been broken in Poland that the number of surgeons has dropped by a quarter (one fourth, twenty-five percent) as compared to 2006. Within thirteen years. Make a guess: what happened? How did that large number of doctors disappear? Young people stopped being interested in medical studies? No. Make another guess. The demand for surgery is much smaller since society at large is healthier and healthier courtesy of the salutary regulations and decrees of the European Union? No. Make yet another guess. The surgeons emigrated to Western countries? Spot on! Bingo!

The Western intellectual circles regard it as evil to exploit weaker nations, especially the Third World countries. They love calling such behaviour fascism (a very fashionable offensive appellation) or racism or what not. Occupying moral high ground, they applaud sending doctors to Somalia or Nigeria or Bangladesh. Yet somewhat miraculously this principle does not apply when physicians from Eastern Europe keep coming to the Western states, draining East European health care systems. Why shouldn’t they after all? We need them – say Western intellectuals – our societies are growing older, there must be someone willing to take care of them.

How do the Western intellectuals reconcile their indignation at exploiting poorer (Third World) countries with depriving Eastern Europeans of their doctors? Oh, come on, another lofty principle is made use of: human rights, among which the freedom of movement is especially enshrined. So the story goes that “we do not rob the poorer countries of their doctors (engineers, teachers, professionals of any kind): they merely use their human rights and flock to places where they have better economic conditions.”

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Gefira-Bulletin #39

Security is almost synonymous with independence or freedom. One cannot be independent or free if one is stripped of the right or capability to control one's destiny. What does it mean to be in control of one's destiny? It means to be able to persist in existence, preserve heritage, take sovereign decisions, freely dispose of material and human resources, pursue desired policies in an attempt to achieve specific targets. None of these is given once and for all: a nation is always under the threat of being deprived of its sovereignty, of it independence – in a word: of its security. Security is generally viewed as the ability to defend one's interests in a military way. Such a view is admittedly legitimate but security can also be compromised or undermined by a myriad of other actions pertaining to economy, international politics or the noosphere. The problem of ensuring security must be based on the assumption that (1) the world is divided into a number of entities and that (2) the interests of these entities are on a collision course. The latter may result from someone's ill will (a proverbial creepy dictator having a desire of military conquest) or from the very nature of things: nations, businesses, groups – just like individuals – compete.


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+Definition of security
+National security against entities other than states
+The noosphere
+EU’s perverse capitalism
+NATO facing the end?
+After 1500 years the Europeans still fail to
+understand the reality

Gefira-Bulletin #38

The formation of the first green parties and their presence in national parliaments appeared to be a passing phenomenon. Politically, the end of the ninetieth and almost the whole of the twentieth centuries were marked by either national, confessional or social parties or a mixture of the two or three ideological trends. Depending on the country or the social standing, people were oriented towards the fight for an independent statehood or economic betterment or religious rights. The latter half of the twentieth century increasingly saw the emergence of parties whose political platform embraced cultural changes and concern about the environment. Rather than fading out, the green ideology was progressively gaining currency and winning support among the citizenry. Green parties began to sprout. The movement has not been suppressed. Quite the opposite happened: it found favourable media coverage and financing. Since the movement has not been crushed nor sidetracked, since it attracts influential followers and enjoys tremendous support, it might as well be inferred that it serves a purpose. Solemn declarations sound good, but money, especially big money, is channelled for causes that are either materialistic or spiritual. If the former is true, then the green ideology may be harnessed to drive competitors out of the market or to boost the economy or to pave the way for a more global world; if the latter is true, then the green ideology is replacing Christianity and may be an offer of a syncretic faith capable of uniting the whole of humanity around the least common denominator: the human habitat. It may also be that the two are intertwined, with some people following their economic or political interests and


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Western political, religious, media and business elites no longer form a coherent union with their state and people. It is not so in China. There the interests of the Communist Party overlap with those of the nation. Nation states are founded upon the idea that socioeconomic classes with their often discrepant interests belong to a larger community which guarantees the pursuit of particular class goals. Until the 1990s, the nation-state was important for the economic growth and cohesion of a population in Western Europe and the US. After World War Two it was not capitalism, individualism or democracy that made Western societies prosper. In countries like West Germany, France, Japan, Great Britain and the Netherlands, roughly 40 to 50% of the economy was created by the state, and the other half was regulated by governments. In the Netherlands, it was forbidden to export cheese without the state's permission which was only granted if the cheese was of sufficient quality. Dutch cheese was world-famous and bad quality cheese could damage the image of the entire Dutch dairy sector. The individual interest or freedom to sell cheese abroad was subdued to the national interest and the good name of the Dutch nation.