Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow




Gefira-Bulletin #36 Political and historical overview

The holidays are over, so to compensate for that we are taking our readers on an exotic journey to China. The unipolar world is making place for a di- or multipolar one. The Soviet Union is gone, but the Russian military might is not; the United States is the world’s largest economy, but China is pretty close behind and the gap is narrowing with every year. The BRICS initiative may have failed, but the cooperation between Beijing and Moscow poses a challenge that Washington cannot denounce as insignificant. Especially the attempt to dedollarize the international trade. Politicians and analysts are increasingly talking about the Thucydides trap, which is a theory about a ruling and rising powers. The power that is threatened with being dislodged from its dominant position has no choice but to respond. The response may take the form of a relatively mild commercial or diplomatic clash with the aspiring state, failing which it can easily evolve into war. History knows very many instances of struggles between ruling and challenging powers with most ending in a bloodshed. Time will show.

Gefira Financial Bulletin #36 is available now

  • Negative interest rates and the flow of money
  • China sets its sights on gold
  • The largest army of pensioners in the world is emerging in China

Which is not to say that China has no problems of her own. It has its economic and democratic setbacks. The Middle Kingdom has still a lot of catching-up to do when the country’s economic output and development is compared to that of the West, while the one-child policy that was in force for decades translates into a significant shrinkage of labour and a huge wave of pensioners who will have to be provided for. Still, the Chinese are focused on success. Discipline, social cohesiveness, high moral standards, efficient, centralized decision-making, a vision for the future and the ambition shared by the government and the governed to make the nation great are sure passports to an equally great future. Courses of Chinese are offered around the globe, not excepting Eastern Europe, and they are offered not merely to businessmen but also to children. This one fact speaks volumes and we describe many others in the current bulletin.

The tanker war is coming to a head

Attacks on Saudi oil production facilities last Saturday are a response to the Saudis’ ongoing military campaign in Yemen, said the spokesman for “God’s helpers” (Huthi’s word). Trump says US weapons are primed and loaded. God with us, he should have added. He blames Satan for everything in Iran. Iran (the guardian of the true faith) claims to have nothing to do with the events. Where does the truth lie? Somewhere else. Would the Huthis without Iran’s aid be able to use ten super modern combat drones so effectively as to halve Saudi oil production within one night? Does Trump really want to go to war after he has recently released all the hawks from his administration (like Bolton)? Do we want to trust Iranian, American or Yemeni propaganda? No, we are trying to be objective in our presentation of the facts and in our analysis. As early as 2018 and in June of this year, we drew our readers’ attention to a possible new tanker war in the Gulf Unfortunately, the latest facts show that our scenario will come true: Trump tries by all means to support oil production in the US by have it reduced in the rest of the world. He is killing two birds with one stone, because at the same time he shows himself to be a strong leader before the elections, who is hard on his enemies. The war in Yemen is also an example of a hybrid war, which we will address in the October issue of our Bulletin.

Train travel in Italy

Train travel in Italy has never been so easy and affordable these days for migrants. All you need to do is to simply board the train. Chances that someone will approach you politely asking for a ticket are next to nil. If, however, especially on long distance trains such as Freccia, a conductor eventually finds you without a ticket, all he can do is, again, very politely, ask you to get off the train at the nearest station. The only result is that you continue your journey, getting on the next train. And then, if you don’t agree with such a request because your travel plans cannot be bothered by lack of a valid ticket, you can always rely on the presence of some foot soldier of Soros’s Army, ready to lend a hand or give friendly advice to an alien culprit.

This is what happened not long ago exactly on a Frecciabianca, a high-speed regional train rolling along the Tuscan coast. A loud altercation was overheard by the passengers as a sub-Saharan woman was being addressed with – allegedly – harsh words by a train cleaner who had something to say about the fact that she was without a ticket. It was the African woman’s lucky day though, as one of the passengers who witnessed the commotion was Lorenzo Tosa, a blogger and former candidate in the May EU elections put up by Soros-financed Più Europa. Tosa rushed to the scene, ready to help the African woman confronting the train cleaner, described by Tosa as “an Italian in his forties, badly dressed, wearing thick frame glasses.” In short, someone mentally retarded who dared to approach “a splendid African girl in her 20’s who was in evident distress due to the man’s behavior.” At that point of the event Tosa felt entitled to step into the discussion and demanded – actually forced – the train cleaner to apologize.

Afterwards he felt compelled to inform the reader in a lyrical style how close “with every muscle, every nerve of his body” he sympathized with the African woman. Talk about empathy of the highest degree! Why haven’t our emphatic blogger paid for her ticket as a gesture of solidarity? Why shouldn’t his empathy be directed towards all human beings? How about some empathy towards the train cleaner, whose lack of education, or lack of skills, or lack of connections, forced him to clean train toilets for six or seven euros per hour? We wonder if Tosa ever had to accept such a low level menial job. Perhaps he wouldn’t have frothed at the mouth with disdain, or disgust, towards this man whom he portrays as a worthless human being.

Again, how about some empathy towards train conductors being attacked and beaten on a daily basis by Africans whom they – always politely – lest they be charged with racially aggravated harassment – ask for a ticket? If you read the sanitized, politically correct Italian news, you would be forced to think that Italians all of sudden are becoming increasingly allergic to tickets, as the reports do not reveal the nationality of the aggressors. Tosa is too busy sympathizing with ticketless Africans, rather than with his fellow citizens making an honest living.
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They will help Poland strip herself of her property

Poland is under attack. Almost all of the one hundred US senators have signed a letter to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo in which they urge him to cause the US government to “help Poland to resolve this issue as quickly as possible.” What is the issue? How does the United States want to help Poland? Do the senators want to implement a belated Marshall, whose benefits were reaped by Western Europe in the aftermath of the Second World War, plan to boost Polish economy as a kind of compensation for the 1945 Yalta Agreements within the framework of which it sold Poland to the Soviet sphere of interests? Or maybe the senators want to render military assistance against Russia by injecting the Polish budget with finances enabling her to purchase up-to-date equipment and thus upgrade her army? Or maybe they urge the Secretary of State to lift from the Polish citizens – representatives of an allied nation – the obligation of having to apply for a visa if they want to travel to the United States?

None of these. The letter addressed to Michael Pompeo has been written to “encourage him to pursue bold initiatives” to… strip Poland of a huge amount of property and transfer it to Jews – you guessed it right: holocaust survivors – and Jewish organizations. What property? Anything owned by the Jews before 1945, and even afterwards, by the Jews who were at that time Polish citizens. Anything irrespective of the fact whether there are heirs to the property or not. Polish courts honour the documented claims submitted by rightful heirs, but that is not what is meant by S.447 – Justice for Uncompensated Survivors Today (JUST) Act of 2017, where we read that “in the case of heirless property, the provision of property or compensation” should nevertheless be demanded “to assist needy Holocaust survivors, Holocaust education, and for other purposes”. The document also stipulates that also “wrongfully seized or transferred” property be returned to individual Jews or Jewish organizations, where the term “wrongfully seized or transferred includes confiscations, expropriations, nationalizations, forced sales or transfers, and sales or transfers under duress during the Holocaust era or the period of Communist rule.”

There are two things that hit straight in the eye. First, the tribal or racial approach to the problem. It is Jews as a tribe that must be compensated for. It does not matter whether a property has a documented heir or not, nor does it matter that at the time when Jews were owners they were all Polish citizens to the man, which under any system of law means that heirless property is taken over by the state. Second, “wrongfully seized or transferred” property during “the period of Communist rule” refers to the years following the Second World War, a time when Poland was ruled by a communist party which carried out “confiscations, expropriations, nationalizations, forced sales or transfers” of all kinds of means of production and other property and these acts were implemented for the most part by Polish Jews who staffed – at times – the majority or near-majority of the decision-making levels of government, the communist party and law enforcement. What chutzpah! Continue reading

Gold trades at an all-time high in nearly all leading currencies

Between 2000 and 2010 the price of gold in dollars quadrupled and since then it has increased by 50%. By way of comparison, from 2015 to 2019 the price of bitcoin rose by 3000%. Gold may soon follow suit and trade at 45.000 dollars an ounce by the end of 2020. What is possible for the digital currency is also possible for gold. Which is not to say that we know what the precise worth of gold will be: what we hold for sure is that the price of this metal will only soar.

In the Gefira bulletin, we have explained in detail the root cause of the economic and financial problems in the Western world.

The production capacity in the most economically advanced nations is collapsing. Between 2020 and 2030 the white Europeans and East Asians will be leaving the workforce in droves, while the number of retirees will be growing. The global population is increasing at a staggering pace, but the populations that have shaped the modern world are shrinking. Neither the left and nor the liberals dare to touch this subject. Either maintains that all ethnic groups are the same and all individuals are equal. If such is the case – they say – we can import people to Europe or the United States from the Third World and thus solve the problem. This claim is not substantiated by any evidence. The disappearance of the Germans, French or English will mean that the vibrant economies created by them in Europe and on other continents will disappear as well. The same holds good for Japan. Continue reading

Paris – soon a third world capital city

There is a pressing demographic trend, and the areas established by Europeans are being slowly taken over by Africans. Many cities in Africa used to be white cities. Whether it be Congo’s capital, Kinshasa (Léopoldville), Dodoma, the capital of Tanzania, or the capital of Kenya, Nairobi, they were all founded and built by Europeans. Contrary to the popular belief, it was not that the Europeans conquered or colonized African peoples. The continent was barely populated. Yes, there were fights, but the European settled in a predominantly empty space.

With the support of Europe, and more recently that of Japan and China, the African nations are multiplying and becoming the earth’s fastest growing population. Kinshasa, Dodoma and Nairobi – once European – are now turned into African cities and there is no reason to believe that this process will stop at the border of the Dark Continent. Now it is Paris that will become the first true African capital city. In large parts of it white French have been replaced by Africans and this process will not stop anytime soon. Consider the French national football team: it looks at times as if it represented Senegal or Congo.

Up to now, the French have been celebrating their national holiday, holding a large military parade on the Champs-Élysées on 14 July. Today some of the “French” people are celebrating the victory of “their” country in the Africa Cup of Nations, flying Algerian rather than French flags in the centre of Paris. While the French with a white complexion booed President Macron during the national festivities, the French with a darker complexion were celebrating their victory in the Africa Cup of Nations, and bragging of conquering France at a faster pace than the Germans did in 1940 in an act of retaliation for French colonization of their countries of the previous centuries.

Once in Africa, now in Europe, the French are losing territory step by step, and we read on a regular basis that representatives of the French state, whether it be the police or emergency workers are ambushed, with police stations being under attack carried out by the new French. What attracts everybody’s attention are the New Year’s Eve celebrations marked by car-be-cues i.e. by torching hundreds of automobiles. The custom accompanies also other events like the football world cup victories that are celebrated in the like fashion. Continue reading

Turkey: the Game Changer

The deal between Ankara and Moscow has been signed and sealed and the first shipments of the S-400 air defence system have just landed on Turkish soil, at a military airbase located at the vicinity of the country’s capital. The second-largest NATO army is acquiring weapons and materiel from a state that by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is viewed as inimical.

Turkey occupies an area which is bridging Europe with Asia and neighbouring some of the war-ridden countries like Iraq and Syria in the volatile region known as the Middle East. It is also strategically important for NATO because it controls the Straits between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea and because it outflanks Russia from the south. A NATO member since 1952 Turkey – although a Third World country – wanted to remain a loyal member of the Alliance with ever closer ties to the Western world. Not only did Ankara join its troops to the NATO but also lent its territory to the pact. The reader will have remembered that it was the American missiles deployed to Turkish territory which caused anxiety at the Kremlin and induced Nikita Khrushchev to retaliate by deploying Soviet missiles to Cuba, which led to the international conflict threatening to culminate in a third world war. The strained relations between the two superpowers were only eased when both the Soviets withdrew their missiles from the largest island in the Caribic and the Americans removed theirs from Turkey.

Turkey’s membership in the Alliance has never meant that Ankara was a patsy in Washington’s hands. It skilfully guarded its sovereignty and pursued its own interests. Thus in 1974 Turkish armed forces landed in Northern Cyprus, establishing there of a separate Turkish state and a permanent – as yet – division of the island predominantly inhabited by Greeks. Thus Ankara dared to thwart the interest of another NATO member – Greece – and Athens could do nothing about it. Turkey was strategically too important and that is why it could afford to act independently of NATO’s most important allies.

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Joseph Stalin’s political role model was Ivan the Terrible; Vladimir Putin’s is Peter the Great

The Cold War – as unpleasant as it was – was at least characterized by a set of diplomatic rules that had been elaborated over time and the states concerned either abode by or went to great lengths to abide by them. It is no longer the case, with the United States walking out on the disarmament agreements signed with the former Soviet Union. The world has become less predictable. Such is the diagnosis given by the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin during an hour-and-a-half interview that was recently held with him by two Financial Times journalists. The Russian leader competently – as usual – addressed the issues raised by his interlocutors.

The Russian president has one more time sent a message to Western diplomats and the common people. What the message is?

There is a split between the elites and the people. The split caused by rampant liberalism, a diktat that suppresses the traditionally minded citizens, a diktat that serves the rich and harms the poor. Chancellor Merkel has made a huge blunder letting in hundreds of thousands of Third World immigrants, whereas President Trump correctly read the wish of common Americans and won the vote. The suspicion that he won the presidential campaign because of Russian interference is ridiculous. We may dispute whether President Trump’s idea of separating the United States from Mexico by means of a wall is good or bad, yet the voters see that their leader at least is attempting to do something about the problem, whereas his European counterparts are adding fuel to the fire. Why, the elites live in guarded, separate, gated city quarters and the people do not. The same holds good for globalism. The outsourcing of manufacturing lined the pockets of the West’s very rich while impoverishing the middle class. Liberalism is at its end. It has destroyed tradition and ousted religion and offered an ever increasing number of genders in return. Still, people on the whole, whether they realize it or not, live by biblical values. One cannot operate as if it were not so.
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Gefira-Bulletin #36

It all began with relocating American and generally Western industry to China. Westernbusinessmen could not believe their luck: China, the largest market in the world,was there for them to reap handsome profit from; China, the largest reservoir of cheaplabour was there for them to exploit. Little thought seems to have been given to Americannational security. The Middle Kingdom, however, had its own agenda. It aimed atusing Western technologies to elevate itself and strengthen its international position.With the Soviet Union gone, China has gradually emerged as Washington’s new contestant.Before the Americans noticed that some of the best of their technology havebeen transferred to or stolen by the Chinese, before they noticed that by outsourcingmanufacture to this Asian tiger they have impoverished and numerically diminishedtheir middle class, within three or so decades the Middle Kingdom became the world’ssecond largest economy. When eventually the American elites woke up to the problem,it was so aggravated that only a trade and financial war appeared to be the availableoption.

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As of now, China is being depicted as almost a rogue state, which is acting inbad faith in economic and financial dealings (the Huawei affair, the G5 technology) andviolating the human rights. Alleged Chinese involvement in the trafficking of humanorgans tops the list of accusations. How much of it is true remains to be seen. One thingis certain: when war breaks out – and we are witnessing the diplomatic and economicstruggle between the two powers – truth is its first victim.

Gefira-Bulletin #35

History is not a science in the strict sense of the word: you cannot pour human populations, into test tubes, heat up and agitate them to see how they mingle and whether the mixture has better qualities than its constituent ingredients. Yet, it does not mean that there are no experiments in history: History carries them out on its own and the only thing an analyst has to do is to identify them and draw inferences. If something happens at present, it has its parallels at a point in the past, somewhere on the globe. Hence the saying that history repeats itself or the adage: nothing new under the sun. Russian folk wisdom says that anything that we call new is merely something that has been long forgotten (Новое – это хорошо забытое старое).

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The white man's world – Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand – is undergoing a process that the Germans call Umvolkung, the French – Le grand remplacement, and the English – ethnic replacement. Its advocates preach the gospel of the non-existence of human races or significant differences between them, of the blessings of multicultural societies and generally the inevitability of this epic change. All past events are interpreted in a manner that is supposed to convince the average white man that he can only benefit from what the multi-racial, multi-racional and multi-confessional future holds. But does it? In the June bulletin of Gefira we show our readers around one of History's laboratories known as South Africa, where races, nations and creeds have been poured into a test tube, heated up and agitated, and produced a specific mixture whose characteristics we can analyze and eventually arrive at the right conclusions. Whether we embrace or reject the future served us on a silver platter by social engineers, we ought to at least take the trouble to know what we are in for. One does not buy clothes or shoes without first trying them on. And since History is kind enough to let us into her many laboratories, why should we reject such an invitation?
 
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