Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow




Soros, inspired by Hitler’s bankers, wants to burden Europe with debt in order to turn it to Africa

After the Second World War, many economists racked their brains to answer the question of how Hitler managed to finance his armament, boost the economy and reduce unemployment. Today his trick is well known. The economic miracle of Führer’s time became possible thanks to the so-called Mefo promissory notes. The notes were the idea of the then President of the Reichsbank, Hjalmar Schacht, and served not only to finance the armament of the Wehrmacht for the Second World War, but also to create state jobs, which would otherwise not have been possible through the normal use of the money and capital markets, i.e. the annual increase in savings in Germany.

The Reich thus financed the armaments industry by accepting notes issued by the dummy company Metallurgische Forschungsgesellschaft GmbH (hence the name Mefo) rather than paying them in cash. The creation of money was in full swing from 1934 to 1938 – the total amount of notes issued at that time was 12 billion marks. The Reichsbank declared to the German banks that it was prepared to rediscount the Mefo notes, thus enabling the banks to discount them.

Because of their five-year term, the redemption of notes had to begin in 1939 at the latest. This threatened with enormous inflation. Since Schacht saw this as a threat to the Reichsmark, he expressed his doubts about the Reich Minister of Finance. But it did not help, and Schacht was quickly replaced by Economics Minister Walther Funk, who declared that the Reich would not redeem the Mefo notes, but would give Reich bonds to the Reichsbank in exchange. At the time of Funk, the autonomous Reichsbank statute was abolished, the Reichsbank was nationalized, and inflation exploded in such a way that Mefo notes with a circulation of 60 billion Reichsmark burdened the budget in post-war Germany. Continue reading

The US will become a neo-feudal nation

The Western world is heading for the next big social and economic crisis. America’s hegemony is waning and its establishment is fighting among themselves. To uphold American supremacy, President Trump and his administration are trying to reshape the nation into a neo-feudal society with a new relationship between the President (sovereign), the financial elite (fief holders, the privileged vassals) and the people (subjects performing socage). If the country is doing well, the population lives in relative stability and the leader is loved. The US is facing a demographic decline and a rapid replacement with migrants from Central America and Africa. This internal development will have profound effects on social stability and economic prosperity. The US can only be a superpower if the country is stable and the nation supports the establishment.

Jerome Powell, the head of the FED, is derailing Trump’s stimulus programme by increasing the interest rate and reducing the federal reserve balance sheet. The actions of the FED result in a drop in stock prices and the increase in the cost of debt servicing for the highly indebted US corporations. The US is now the world’s largest oil consumer and producer thanks to its shale oil industry. However even with the oil price around $70 the industry has lost more than it earned. A high interest rate and a low oil price make the industry vulnerable.

Gefira Financial Bullletin #28 is available now

  • The US will become a neofeudal nation.
  • Monetary and fiscal policy: it is time for gold again.
  • Trident Juncture – Arctic ice gets hot.

The president has said clearly that he does not like what the FED is doing. The FED has to revise its decisions, otherwise Jerome Powell will be dismissed as envisioned by Section 10 of the Federal Act. The FED will have to reconsider its policies so as to enable the stock market to make another push up next year. However, investors should be careful. The emperor has no clothes, and while the S&P is still at an all-time high, it may happen that soon distinguished brands like General Electric, once America’s most valuable company, will be on the brink of bankruptcy.

President Trump will not be able to reverse the social decline, the gradual impoverishment of the middle class and the exodus of factories. The tensions within the US establishment are spreading to Europe. On both sides of the Atlantic, there is huge discontent between the native peoples and immigrants, so ethnic clashes are more and more likely. Trust in national governments is eroding and the Western societies will slowly fall apart. While the US remains the world’s sole superpower, it has nonetheless lost the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Still, the Washington cabal is clinging to power by imposing more and more sanctions on companies and countries. The Western world and its financial system are breaking down and for that reason gold will again be a safe haven for investors.

Energy is pivotal. The conflict with Russia is about energy. As long as Russia is Europe’s main energy supplier, Moscow will wield power over the Old Continent. Operation Trident, NATO’s large military exercises held in Norway, is about energy resources. In Gefira 28 we discuss the future of the United States and give the reader an extensive analysis of the US shale oil industry, explaining why the FED will be compelled to change its policies.

The Gefira financial bulletin is a monthly periodical that the Gefira team releases ten times a year. We give a clear projection of the future of energy and politics.From Trump’s election to the steep increase in the oil price and the value of bitcoin, it was all in the Gefira before it happened.

According to the Gefira team, the next systemic crisis will happen around 2020 as the oil price is back at 100 dollar and German mass retirement begin. There is a high risk of war on the Old Continent. However, it is not Russia but Turkey that is the most imminent threat.

It is not the emerging markets, nor public or private debt that should be of interest to investors but instead the shrinking populations in the developed world. Japan is the first country that experiences a diminishing number of people, and for that reason, it pursuing extraordinary monetary and fiscal policies.The decrease in the European and US populations will have dire economic consequences, and after 2025 China will join the club of dying nations.

Apart from China and Russia, economic growth in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia is dependent on the developed countries which see a dramatic shrinkage of their populations.

In the Gefira bulletin we provide investment suggestions and give a coherent vision of the time ahead from a macroeconomic perspective.

On our Website, we have articles from our research team whereas in the Gefira Financial Bulletin we give a comprehensive explanation of the coming world. We focus primarily on economic, investment and strategic subjects. We focus on 2020 as the financial breaking point.

Subscribe to the Gefira Financial Bulletin and receive the next ten numbers complete with free access to our archive for just 225 euros or 250 dollars

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From the perspective of investors and financial planners we focus on such issues as:

  • geopolitical risks
  • demographics
  • private and public debt
  • assets bubbles
  • cryptocurrencies
  • energy security

The Gefira Financial Bulletin is a confidential briefing paper on the current economic events for investors and generally the business community. It is accompanied by our website, where you will find articles on social issues. The Gefira research team is the only one that is acutely aware of the importance of the current unprecedented demographic changes not seen before in all of history.

The Gefira research team elaborates its anticipation, drawing on:

  • an extensive knowledge of finance and banking;
  • a comprehensive understanding of geopolitics and history;
  • detailed data analyses of millions of records;
  • computer-aided simulations.

The French are revolting against Macron green-tax (UPDATE 2018-11-24 10:00)

All over France people protest against the green-tax on petrol.

Live Paris

Saturday 2018-11-24 Paris

Saturday 2018-11-24 Paris

Saturday 2018-11-24 Setques

Saturday 2018-11-24 Paris

Saturday 2018-11-24 Lyon

 

Friday 2 Continue reading

Sino-Russian interdependence will be based on oil

Although Beijing is Moscow’s largest trading partner, while Russia only ranks in the second ten among China’s importers, the Kremlin is strategically the most important contractor because it supplies the most desirable product – oil – and Chinese demand for this raw material is growing. It appears that an increase in Russian oil exports to China will be at the expense of European consumers.

Chinese oil production has been falling since 2015, and yet enormous infrastructure investments and huge strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) boost the demand for it. No wonder then that in 2017, Beijing became the largest importer of crude oil, overtaking the United States. Currently, China’s consumption of product is approaching 13 million barrels per day. In the March Gefira we predicted that the PRC will have become the largest consumer of this raw material by 2025, accounting for 18-20% of the global consumption.And Russia has an important role to play because already in 2016 it became China’s most important oil supplier, replacing Saudi Arabia.

China has been buying more and more Russian oil in the last decade, even though the Kremlin does not increase its export volume, which is around 5 million barrels per day. In 2009, countries such as Poland and the Netherlands imported more Russian crude oil than Beijing, but in 2015 they were overtaken by China, which in 2017 had an over 20% share in the Russian exports of this raw material. Continue reading

European pluralism: the largest patriotic demonstration in Europe presents undesirable values

Independence March: GOD HONOUR HOMELAND
photo shutterstock.com

While in Paris the President of France during the ceremony commemorating the end of World War I was sending a message about the destructiveness of nationalism,in Warsaw a quarter of a million of people held the annual Independence Day March, Europe’s largest patriotic demonstration. The contrast between the two events shows how far Europe is from the ideals that once constituted the strength of the Old Continent i.e. faith, family, nation and homeland.

Polish citizens generally take great pride in their national identity, , and that is precisely what almost all European and overseas mainstream media dislike intensely. It is in line with this feeling that reports on the Independence March are made in such a way as to fill the Western readership, listeners and viewers with disgust and cause a feeling of shame among Poles. As it is the authors of these articles have all attributed to the Warsaw event the fascist and Nazi character, putting a sign of equality between these ideologies with nationalism, without thinking about the history of the country they are writing about.

The Western reader is made to believe that the March is predominantly made up of skinheads and thugs who want to beat everyone and burn everything that they encounter. Such a picture has nothing to do with reality because the parade was attended by innumerable crowds of common Poles of various social standing – from the unemployed, through cleaners, pensioners, lawyers and professors, and families with children – all of whom identified with such slogans as God, honor, homeland, nation or family. The media, however, provided a distorted picture. Continue reading

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Gefira-Bulletin #28

Globalism as the world's future has come to an end. Humanity has made a full circle and is now heading towards a neo-feudal social, economic and political system, with modern counterparts of medieval sovereigns, vassals and serfs. Before that system consolidates, we will be seeing a lot of infighting at the highest echelons of the Washington establishment, especially between the FED and the president. The world's most important players compete so fiercely for energy sources that even the Arctic is unlikely to be spared. Although the United States is still looked upon as a superpower, its cornerstone i.e. the population is rapidly changing, with the white Americans growing disillusioned and the new Americans feeling no emotional connection to the adopted country, hence no need to sacrifice life in endless wars in far-off corners of the globe. This alone does not bode well for the United States' future. Oil but also increasingly so gold and rare-earth elements are at the core of the financial warfare that is being played out between Washington, Brussels, Moscow and Beijing. This alone coupled with sabre-rattling and muscle-flexing in the form of military exercises and economic sanctions as well as anti-Russian or anti-Iranian harangues may provoke one of the participants into overreacting. Gefira #28 takes us on a journey through the meanders of the conflicting interests.

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Globalism as the world's future has come to an end. Humanity has made a full circle and is now heading towards a neo-feudal social, economic and political system, with modern counterparts of medieval sovereigns, vassals and serfs. Before that system consolidates, we will be seeing a lot of infighting at the highest echelons of the Washington establishment, especially between the FED and the president. The world's most important players compete so fiercely for energy sources that even the Arctic is unlikely to be spared. Although the United States is still looked upon as a superpower, its cornerstone i.e. the population is rapidly changing, with the white Americans growing disillusioned and the new Americans feeling no emotional connection to the adopted country, hence no need to sacrifice life in endless wars in far-off corners of the globe. This alone does not bode well for the United States' future. Oil but also increasingly so gold and rare-earth elements are at the core of the financial warfare that is being played out between Washington, Brussels, Moscow and Beijing. This alone coupled with sabre-rattling and muscle-flexing in the form of military exercises and economic sanctions as well as anti-Russian or anti-Iranian harangues may provoke one of the participants into overreacting. Gefira #28 takes us on a journey through the meanders of the conflicting interests. Read more subscribe:

Gefira 28 Content

The US will become a neofeudal nation.
Globalism is over.
Military power.
The people and its leaders.
US oil
US and financial warfare.
Monetary and fiscal policy.

Trident Juncture - Arctic ice gets hot

Recommendations.
It is time for gold again.
The FED has to comply with President Trump’s fiscal policies.
Oil.

Gefira-Bulletin #27

Though the Italians have accused Germany of reviving and implementing the Walther Funk plan to exploit southern European EU member states, Germany itself is taking changes for the worse: its automotive industry is well on the way of being taken over by China, the country relies heavily on energy resources from Russia and an ever greater part of its population, mostly formally German citizens, pleads allegiance to Turkey. Europe – one of the most developed regions of the world – has troubles to overcome and so do some of the countries in the Far East. South Korea, which has copied the success of the Old World, is now experiencing much the same demographic problems. It can be saved, however, if its northern neighbour finally opens its borders up and allows its skilled and educated labour to go south. Remote though this scenario may seem, the probability of its fulfilment is more real than we tend to think.

€25/$28

Add to cart

more

Though the Italians have accused Germany of reviving and implementing the Walther Funk plan to exploit southern European EU member states, Germany itself is taking changes for the worse: its automotive industry is well on the way of being taken over by China, the country relies heavily on energy resources from Russia and an ever greater part of its population, mostly formally German citizens, pleads allegiance to Turkey. Europe – one of the most developed regions of the world – has troubles to overcome and so do some of the countries in the Far East. South Korea, which has copied the success of the Old World, is now experiencing much the same demographic problems. It can be saved, however, if its northern neighbour finally opens its borders up and allows its skilled and educated labour to go south. Remote though this scenario may seem, the probability of its fulfilment is more real than we tend to think. Read more subscribe:

Gefira 27 Content

The demise of the German factory base; the next black swan.
Arrow one: Xi Jinping and manufacturing.
Arrow two: Vladimir Putin and energy.
Arrow three: Recep Tayyip Erdogan Islamic immigrants.

North Korea is the last economic growth opportunity.
First of all: demography.
Third: natural resources.
Fourth: geopolitics.

Recommendations.
German car manufacturers; the worst is still to come.
North Korea: the last economic growth opportunity.
Russia, the biggest winner of the energy transition.

 
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