Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow




Wherever you look, you see a real property bubble

Too high prices on the real property market only concern allegedly the rich and and popular cities. When you consider the case more closely, the bubble risk appears to be threatening also emerging economies.

Rumour about the real property bubble is spreading far and wide in Great Britain, Scandinavia and the Netherlands.In its report for the last year, UBS listed Vancouver, London, Stockholm, Sydney and Munich among the cities with especially inflated prices.

The reports hardly ever mention that one of the decisive factors causing the rise in prices are the open borders and the excessive immigration. For instance in London alone there live approximately 300 000 Russians who invest, mostly illegal money, in real property.Apart from Russians it is also the Chinese and people from Qatar who raise the property prices in the British capital and who have long taken over London’s City. Continue reading

NGOs and European defense forces shipped another 85,000 Africans to Italy

Written by Nicholas Farrell

The law on whether NGO ships that ferry thousands of illegal migrants from Libya to Europe via Italy each week are smugglers or rescuers is very murky but the name of their game is without doubt very fishy. So I asked an independent Dutch research institute, Gefira, which has done lots of work on Europe’s migrant crisis, to take a closer look at the activities of the NGO fleet. In 2016, its 20 or so vessels – together with European Union and Italian naval and coastguard ships – “rescued” a record 181,000 migrants from open boats near the coast of Libya and brought them to Italy which at its southernmost point, Sicily, is 275 nautical miles (318 miles) from Tripoli.
So far this year, they have “rescued” another 85,000 – 21% up on the same time last year. The 2017 total is expected to be well over 200,000.

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NBC cannot accept that Poles love Trump and hate Stalinists

[a reader’s contribution]

Western left-leaning European media (from a central or eastern European viewpoint even the so-called right-wing media in the West appear to be left-leaning) sometimes comment on the events in Poland, Czechia, Slovakia or Hungary, always with a patronising, condescending attitude, almost reprimanding their East European brothers if the latter “do not behave”. Such are also the reports on President Donald Trump’s visit to Warsaw, Poland, and his speech delivered at a historical place, against the backdrop of a huge monument to the 1944 Warsaw Uprising (not to be confused with the much smaller 1943 Ghetto Uprising in the same city).

The left-leaning media seem to relish the reports that allegedly Poles were induced or forced to participate in the Donald Trump welcoming partyto which I have the following to say:

  1. It may have been so, although I know my compatriots and I know they would go to greet an American president without being told to do so.
  2. Exactly the same methods were applied when Poland was being pushed into the embrace of the European Union, but then, the journalists somehow did not care because the pervasive narrative was that all reasonable people wanted to become a part of the European structure.

I remember the time prior to our accession to the EU: you could not take a breath without inhaling this sticky overbearing propaganda trying to convince us that the EU was oh such a salvation. One of the renowned professors even said that Poland’s accession to the EU was comparable with Poland’s Christening (966, a date commonly regarded as the birth of Poland as an internationally recognised political entity) from a thousand years before. Can you imagine? Continue reading

Soros-sponsored immigration network in Italy

The following article is based on Francesca Totolo’s research published on lucadonadel.it.

Open Borders, Media Censorship
Why is there a migrant crisis in the Mediterranean? Why are NGOs involved? Because there is an extensive network of open borders activists and organizations behind it; many of them are directly funded by or cooperated with George Soros’ Open Society. Is it illegal? Not really. Political activism is an essential part of democratic societies. However, sometimes it goes too far, or the promoted causes prove to be either unrealistic or unsustainable.
The network of the “immigration lobby’’ in Italy is made up of International NGOs financed by the Open Society Foundation (green), Italian NGOs financed by OSF (blue), and organizations with shared projects with OSF (purple).

 

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Will the inter-religious conflict escalate in India?

In February and March 2017 state elections were held in India. The greatest concern was shown towards those in Uttar Pradesh, which is the most populated region and, what’s also important, inhabited by a large Muslim minority. The elections were won by the Indian People’s Party (the BJP) under the leadership of present prime minister Narendra Modi. Because of his affiliation with religious and nationalist paramilitary organization Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) many raise the question whether there’s a risk of increase in Hindu extremist activities and the eruption of unrest similar to those in Gujarat in 2002, which resulted in death of several hundreds of Muslims.

The victory of the BJP is considered by inattentive analysts as an indication of a rise in nationalist attitudes in Hindu society. At the same time many researchers point out that the support for political right makes up 30%-40%. It is usually enough to win in a given constituency. Some assume correctly that the BJP won in those districts where Muslims didn’t exceed 45% of total population and lost to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP Majority People’s Party) in 7 constituencies in which Muslims are the majority. The studies indicate that both this year’s and 2014 state assembly elections’ triumphs are an effect of the opposition’s weakness and its internal divisions, which result in the dispersion of votes. It’s important as one should remember that in India the “first past the post voting”, the candidate who receives most votes wins, is in force. It means that the winner in a certain constituency doesn’t have to be supported by at least 50% of voters. Such political forces as the BSP, which won multiple times in Uttar Pradesh, got 22% of the popular vote and barely 19 seats in the Legislative Assembly. The Indian National Congress’, secular social-liberal (Mahatma Gandhi), support totaled up to 6% and resulted in 7 seats. Continue reading

Parrot of the Nations

At the turn of the 18th and 19th century it was fashionable among the intellectuals (lay or spiritual) to belong to a masonic lodge; in the 19th and 20th centuries they all saw it fit to advocate, support, and take part in the socialist movement (from Marx to Lenin to Trotsky to Mussolini to Stalin to Hitler to Piłsudski they all were socialists of one brand or another); today’s fashion that reigns supreme among the elites is globalism (another word for the well-known communist and socialist internationalism).

Central and East European countries from cradle have been parroting the fashion that is currently taking hold of the western minds. The aping was always belated and imperfect (which spared the latter huge social upheavals), but it has been the modus vivendi of the central and eastern European elites who have always, and I mean always, felt inferiority complex facing their western counterparts. Nothing has changed in this respect nowadays. The Eastern European elites desperately want to “belong”, they want to be “recognized”, “respectful” in the eyes of their Western role models, so they will go to all and any lengths to prove they are worthy of their cleverer western colleagues’ attention and praise.

What is today’s fashion? Migrants. If you want to prove that you “belong”, you need to desire the presence of migrants in your own country, cost it what it may, against the will of your own people. After all, who are they, those common people? Sheeple. Yes, sheeple, because elites of whatever brand, white or red, right or left, religious or irreligious have always had a patronizing and condescending attitude towards their compatriots, bigots, as they call them at best, rednecks at worst. And sheeple need to be told what is right and what is wrong. It is high moral ground to want to turn your country into a mix of races, creeds and languages; it is morally reprehensible not to want it. Understood? Continue reading

The Saudi-Qatar rift has elements of world war potential

The First and the Second World War were the culmination of rivalries that go as far back as over a thousand years, when Charlemagne subjugated the Saxon tribes inhabiting modern Germany, and creating the Carolingian Empire. The political successors of Franks, France, and Saxons, the latter morphing into the Holy Roman Empire, then Prussia, then Germany, would continue to fight border wars until the bloodiest of them all, World War 2, inflicted enough destruction to both to force them to give up military means for the reciprocal arrangements.

The First World War was triggered by a regional episode, the assassination of the Archduke of Austria, Franz Ferdinand, by Serb nationalists that put in motion the alliance of the German world, Austria and Prussia against the British, French and Russian one.

Just like the two world wars in Europe were triggered by a single event, so can long standing, unresolved rivalries for power and influence over the Middle East result in the mother of all wars.

Qatar and Saudi Arabia have collaborated in the recent years to overthrow the Assad presidency in Syria and replace it with a Sunni Muslim leader that would allow the creation of a pipeline from Qatar to Europe, for the benefit of the Gulf countries.

The failure of the American-Saudi-Qatari coalition however re-opened old wounds. In the recent weeks, the Saudi-led bloc, including Jordan, Egypt and Bahrain has broken all ties with Qatar, accusing it of working with terrorist groups and having too close ties with Iran. Since then, having cashed in on the support of US President Trump, Saudis have given a list of 13 demands to Qatar, which the latter has no intention to comply with. Continue reading

Shale gas extraction in Poland: is there any hope left?

Ten years have passed since the first concession to search for shale gas was issued. There were several problems of technological, economic and legal nature, which prevented Poland from becoming potentate in extracting this resource. It may seem that Poland missed its chance. However, monitoring and using new methods of shale gas production together with legal framework implementation, which would encourage the investors, can mark a new chapter in history of the Polish gas industry.

Shale gas in Poland: from euphoria to disappointment
According to the data provided by the Ministry of Environment the first concession to search for shale gas was issued in 2007, and the first drilling took place three years later. In the peak moment in 2012 111 exploration concessions were in force.This year was also marked by the publication of the Polish Geological Institute, in which the deposits were estimated at 346-768bn cubic metres.In 2011 the Polish Prime Minister anticipated that the commercial production of shale gas will have begun after three years.According to the observers, for instance former Minister of Economy Janusz Steinhoff, thanks to shale gas extraction Poland would have an opportunity to become independent of its imports while causing the lowering of prices on the domestic market.

Yet, in 2015 foreign investors started to withdraw and Polish state companies PGNiG and PKN Orlen abandoned their projects last year. Continue reading

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Gefira-Bulletin #15

Western establishments are opting for a full population replacement to keep the ball rolling.

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The Gefira team has taken a year to analyze the current state of affairs in the world. The promising role of the BRICS countries has disappeared whilst the US still has the characteristics of a waning power and the European Union failed to become the world’s leader. The global economy cannot operate without decisive intervention from central banks.

The Western powers did not succeed in bringing democracy to the Middle East and the conflicts with Islamists are intensifying. Nationalism in Europe is on the rise while the global elites keep on foisting a multicultural programme on their respective societies. The increasing uncertainty, the lack of convincing economic recovery and of global leadership is the result of the far-reaching changes in demographics with no comparable historical precedent. The Gefira team is one of the few research groups that understand that the dramatic changes in the world population will have a profound effect on financial markets, emerging countries, distribution of religions, migration and geopolitics. Since populations in Africa and South Asia are exploding whereas those of the developed world are shrinking, Western establishments are opting for a full population replacement in Europe and the USA; conversely, Japan and China will keep their borders shut, and we will see a 60% population decrease there. The reversal of a population decline can take 50 to 100 years. The Gefira will focus on the unprecedented demographic shifts we are experiencing right now; in this issue we take a look at the changes in China whose (especially working) population is about to shrink and whose urbanization will come to a halt within the coming 10 years; we also discuss the strategic role of the Russian and European space programmes.

Gefira-Bulletin #14

Gefira: Demographics and the consequence for economics and investments

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We are at the dawn of profound demographic changes that will affect every investment. The Japanese population will shrink an astonishing 60% this century.

Europeans are trying to escape the same fate by repopulating the continent. All government data shows that the West as we know it will slowly disappear and while Europe is in full retreat, the population in Asia and Africa is exploding. The staggering number of new births in Africa will spell a human disaster and the Europeans will not able to avert it. This process has already started and will change our world profoundly; investors and planners should take notice. This Gefira gives an outline of what is coming.

 
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