Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow

Europe Faces Unprecedented Demographic Pressure

The world’s demographics in Africa and Asia have changed dramatically over the last 50 years. Population in numerous African countries has a staggering growth of 300% up to almost 600%. There are no signs countries in Africa, and Central Asia can lift themselves out of poverty. The population explosion in Africa will be a driving force of large-scale migration. Many will leave their homeland to resettle in Europe and the US. This will have a profound effect on those who will stay in their countries but and on those in the recipient countries.

European elites try to present immigration as a positive and cultural enrichment. However, forced re-population is a known military strategy, and is used to subjugate the enemy. William T. Sherman cabled Ulysses S. Grant: “Until we can repopulate Georgia it is useless to occupy.” From an abstract point of view, it makes no difference if the re-population is done by a vicious enemy, by bureaucrats or if it happens just naturally: the effects are the same.

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Euro Area Crisis: We are Back in 2012 and Even Worse

The efficiency of a monetary policy is disputable in recent times, especially in the Euro Area. But it is not a monetary policy to blame because it works in sovereign countries with their own fiscal policy. It is the design of the Eurozone itself that makes the European Central Bank’s actions ineffective, whatever they are.

The unending crisis in the European banking system is clear proof. In a sovereign country, adjusted monetary policy in combination with so called fiscal policy is enough to manage a banking sector during liquidity problems. It means that if banks stop trusting each other and do not lend money to each other any more, a national central bank wades in and provides temporarily some cheap money to stave off a threat and give the government (fiscal authorities) time to solve the underlying solvency problems. The Euro Area does not have this incredibly important mechanism. Continue reading

Shell’s 6.5% Dividend Is Monetised by The European Central Bank.

Oil companies and their beneficiaries that suffer from low oil prices are being rescued by the current ECB monetary policies. Negative interest rates and the ECB cooperate bond purchase program is turning corporate finances upside down and makes dividend payments rational even if revenue does not justify it. While the oil price is still low, there is no reason to believe that oil prices will stay at this level. There is a lack of investment in new production and world demand is increasing. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects demand to outpace supply in 2017. The exact moment of a sharp price increase is hard to predict, but it will be somewhere between now and 2020. Oil companies and oil-producing countries have to weather the storm to survive. Continue reading

TARGET2; European Banking Crisis is Escalating Again

Problems of Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, Monte dei Paschi and other German, Italian and Spanish banks are not the only concern of the European Banking System. Trouble is much deeper than it is thought because there is a systemic imbalance that has been increasing for almost ten years. Politicians do not want to tell us the truth, but soon we will experience the same crisis in the Monetary Union as we did in 2012.

The extent of the problems in the European Banking System is TARGET2 and its balances of the National Central Banks of the Eurosystem. These balances, or rather imbalances, reflect the direction of the capital flight. And there is only one way: from Southern Europe into Germany. After Mario Draghi’s famous words “I do whatever it takes to save the euro”, things seemed to improve; however, since January 2015 problems have been escalating again. Continue reading

Objective press in the U.S.? NYT and USA Today endorse Clinton

The United States of America is deemed a benchmark of democracy. One of the pillars of democracy is free and independent press. And an objective one. Without objective press, the freedom of speech is replaced by propaganda, exactly the same as that one in Russia or other “autocracies”. Can we speak about democracy in the US if two major titles openly support one of the presidential candidates? Is it still democracy, if the press have already chosen who should be the commander-in-chief instead of leaving this decision to the voters? Continue reading

Lawlessness in the Republique, from Calais to Paris

This week Francois Hollande has promised to clear the “Jungle” in Calais as if he had forgotten that the Jungle was cleared completely in February this year. On February 29, 2016 the BBC wrote, “EU migrant crisis: Clashes as France clears Calais ‘Jungle'”. To think of it, while France is sending its army to Mali to restore order in the African country, the French leaders are incapable of restoring the rule of law around Calais and in Paris.

There is no reason to believe that France will succeed in solving the problems in Calais this time. The problems are not limited to Calais: on September 16th the French authorities cleared a camp near Stalingrad Metro Station in Paris but within a couple of days the migrants were back. Today it is said that there are currently around 2000 people camping in front of the apartment houses there.

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