Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow




Sino-Russian interdependence will be based on oil

Although Beijing is Moscow’s largest trading partner, while Russia only ranks in the second ten among China’s importers, the Kremlin is strategically the most important contractor because it supplies the most desirable product – oil – and Chinese demand for this raw material is growing. It appears that an increase in Russian oil exports to China will be at the expense of European consumers.

Chinese oil production has been falling since 2015, and yet enormous infrastructure investments and huge strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) boost the demand for it. No wonder then that in 2017, Beijing became the largest importer of crude oil, overtaking the United States. Currently, China’s consumption of product is approaching 13 million barrels per day. In the March Gefira we predicted that the PRC will have become the largest consumer of this raw material by 2025, accounting for 18-20% of the global consumption.And Russia has an important role to play because already in 2016 it became China’s most important oil supplier, replacing Saudi Arabia.

China has been buying more and more Russian oil in the last decade, even though the Kremlin does not increase its export volume, which is around 5 million barrels per day. In 2009, countries such as Poland and the Netherlands imported more Russian crude oil than Beijing, but in 2015 they were overtaken by China, which in 2017 had an over 20% share in the Russian exports of this raw material. Continue reading

European pluralism: the largest patriotic demonstration in Europe presents undesirable values

Independence March: GOD HONOUR HOMELAND
photo shutterstock.com

While in Paris the President of France during the ceremony commemorating the end of World War I was sending a message about the destructiveness of nationalism,in Warsaw a quarter of a million of people held the annual Independence Day March, Europe’s largest patriotic demonstration. The contrast between the two events shows how far Europe is from the ideals that once constituted the strength of the Old Continent i.e. faith, family, nation and homeland.

Polish citizens generally take great pride in their national identity, , and that is precisely what almost all European and overseas mainstream media dislike intensely. It is in line with this feeling that reports on the Independence March are made in such a way as to fill the Western readership, listeners and viewers with disgust and cause a feeling of shame among Poles. As it is the authors of these articles have all attributed to the Warsaw event the fascist and Nazi character, putting a sign of equality between these ideologies with nationalism, without thinking about the history of the country they are writing about.

The Western reader is made to believe that the March is predominantly made up of skinheads and thugs who want to beat everyone and burn everything that they encounter. Such a picture has nothing to do with reality because the parade was attended by innumerable crowds of common Poles of various social standing – from the unemployed, through cleaners, pensioners, lawyers and professors, and families with children – all of whom identified with such slogans as God, honor, homeland, nation or family. The media, however, provided a distorted picture. Continue reading

ACTA 2.0 – the end of freedom on the Internet

Freedom of expression is a thorn in the side of EU technocrats. The new intellectual property law adopted by the European Parliament in September threatens our fundamental rights.

Internet means freedom. Still. We can (still) freely retrieve content with our search engines. We can (still) freely and without further ado access the sources in a text. This will soon change. Article 13 of the controversial law says that website operators and Internet providers will be held accountable for the content of their customers and readers. The new law thus obliges them to use the so-called upload filters. The filter obligation leaves it to the software to decide what users are allowed to upload and what not. In plain language it says the provider will control and censor our activities on the net: every uploaded photo, video, every text will be checked. The question arises: what criteria will apply to this censorship and how and by whom will this filter software be programmed? The EU Commission will certainly soon be proposing detailed guidelines to combat fake news, the spread of terrorism on the Internet, and to combat those who infringe copyrights. All right, but it will also be a tool to suppress the critics of the EU, independent bloggers who want to throw light on the incompetence and insolence of the Brussels technocrats, dissidents (not left-wing liberals). And I bet: the directives will be introduced very quickly and eagerly in all EU countries.

Source: shutterstock.com
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Poland accepts one fifth of all immigrants coming to Europe

According to 2017 official data, more than 3.7 million people from outside the Community settled in the European Union, of which 565 thousand were granted asylum and 3.1 million received a residence permit. It turns out that Poland, which is considered the opponent of migration, has accepted 18% of this pool, becoming the second – after Germany – most favorable towards non-EU foreigners.

Although in 2017, among 28 countries, Poland was the ninth from the end in terms of the number of accepted refugees (560 positive decisions),it issued the largest number of residence permits. Last year Warsaw allowed for arrival of over 683 thousand people from outside the EU,of which Ukrainians, the largest group, number 585 thousand, to be followed by 42.8 thousand Belorussians and 7.8 thousand Moldovans. In 87% of the cases, a residence permit was issued on the basis of an employment contract.

Among the EU countries, Poland ranks third in terms of the number of immigrants, which is 18, per 1000 citizens. Only Malta (26.8) and Cyprus (23.7) are ahead of Poland, but these are countries with a small population, lying directly on the migration routes from the Middle East and Africa. By comparison, European leading migration advocates, i.e. Germany, France, and recently also Spain, have accepted 6, 17 and 16 foreigners from outside the EU per 1000 citizens respectively. Continue reading

Who is trying to outdo Hitler and Stalin in Poland in suppressing Independence Day?

Independence Day March – Update 2018-11-09

Courts of law both in Wrocław and Warsaw lifted the ban on the Independence Day March. The mayor of Warsaw said she would appeal against this decision whereas the mayor of Wroclaw made an offensive statement to the tune that “no decent city dweller shall dare take part in it”.

At the same time many members of the law enforcement have gone on strike. Coincidence? Will the army be called in if anything happens? The powers that be (foreign and their domestic lackeys) have vested interest in disrupting the March. No difficulty paying a few thugs and telling them to mingle with the crowd and then, at the appointed place, with cameras rolling, unfurl “fascist”, “racist” and “nazi” flags for the whole world to see.

You remember President Obama’s speech a few years ago? He said something like this: if lethal gas is used against civilians, the United States will step in. On the following day gas was used.

It is going to be an interesting Sunday in Poland.

 

The celebration of Poland’s Independence Day, which falls on 11 November, has been prohibited by Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, and almost all the post-war communist rulers of the country. Since 1989 Poland is supposedly an independent state and the Polish nation can enjoy freedom and feel itself at last at home. Spontaneously people began celebrating Independence Day and have continued to do so for a good many years. Every year from the point of view of the powers that be this festivity has been a problem: allegedly fascists and Nazis, anti-Semites and racists made up the long, fifty, seventy or a hundred thousand people strong column of men and women and children marching along the capital’s streets, with unfurled national flags. The message is sent to the whole world that “fascism is raising its ugly head” in Poland and that something must be done about it or else.

This year it is the hundredth anniversary of Poland regaining independence after 123 years of captivity during which it was politically erased from the maps of Europe. This national holiday was officially instituted barely before the Second World War. Its importance for the collective national consciousness cannot be overrated. And lo and behold, it is again a thorn in the flesh of the powers that be.

At first Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, who styles himself as a patriot, said he would take part; then, which was only waiting to happen, he revoked; then Warsaw’s mayor said she would forbid the march the moment she learnt about improprieties; then she took the ultimate decision to prohibit the march;eventually President Andrzej Duda said he would form and lead a rival march, with a changed name: no Independence March anymore but a White-and-Red March, named after the colours of the national flag.

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The Italian people must understand that their country is at war

The conflict between the European Union and Italy is a full-blown financial war. Euro countries cannot print their own money and for that reason they cannot have an endless deficit. Countries within the eurozone have to live within their means or else, without the intervention of the ECB, they will go bankrupt. Nobody knows the consequences of an Italian default and debt restructuring, but it can lead to the end of the euro.

To make the euro sustainable, the European financial elites want the Italians to reduce their spending and turn a budget deficit into a budget surplus. However, due to the country’s shrinking population the Italian budget deficit — as we have argued many times – can only increase. The European commission rejects the Italian budget because Rome wants to increase its debt far beyond the limit allowed by the ECB. “This is the first Italian budget that the EU doesn’t like,” wrote Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio on Facebook. “No surprise: This is the first Italian budget written in Rome and not in Brussels!”Matteo Salvini added: “This (the rejection of the Italian budget plan by the EU) doesn’t change anything.”. “They’re not attacking a government but a people. These are things that will anger Italians even more,” he said.

The country has entered a demographic winterand sustainable economic growth is simply impossible, at least for the foreseeable future. As is the case with the whole of Europe, the Italy needs a plan to support an ageing and declining population. As if not aware of it, the Brussels-Frankfurt establishment only wants Italy to stick to their austerity program, i.e. decrease public spending and do away with the current Italian administration, which refuses to comply.

To force Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Salvini out of office, the European Union will go to any lengths to destroy the Italian banking sector the way they did it in Greece and Cyprus. In 2015 Greece shut down its banks, ordering them to stay closed for six days, and its central bank imposed restrictions to prevent money from fleeing out of the country. Continue reading

A new flashpoint in the Mediterranean deepens the conflict between Turkey, Cyprus and Greece

The conflict over gas in the eastern Mediterranean is intensifying. In February, the first case of intervention by the Turkish navy took place in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Cyprus. Last month, two more flashpoints have appeared.

The dispute concerns gas blocks, i.e. areas into which waters around Cyprus have been divided. Turkey does not recognize the government in Nicosia or its agreements regarding EEZ. Ankara thinks that the right to extract gas should also be exercised by the Turkish Cypriots and also by Turkey in the case of Blocks 4, 5, 6, and 7, through which – according to Ankara – passes the Turkish maritime border (the map below).

At the beginning of October, Cyprus put gas extraction in the disputed Block 7 out to tender, which the Gefira Team has informed about. In response to this, in the middle of the same month, Turkey sent an exploration ship assisted by four naval vessels and began exploration in the area of 44 thousand km2, including blocks 4 and 5. Nicosia and Athens consider it a violation of the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cyprus. On October 18, another event took place. Greece reported that the Turkish ship had entered the Greek continental shelf, which provoke Athens to send the frigate Nikiforos to drive the Turks out.

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Marxists have found their new proletariat: people of colour

In the end of the nineteenth and almost throughout the whole of the twentieth centuries it was the working class that was adored by them. Everything was done for this class, through this class, for the sake of this class, in the name of this class. They all devoted their lives to the liberation of the working class which was ruthlessly exploited by the capitalists. Who were those working class’ liberators, those do-gooders? Sons and daughters of intellectuals (and intellectuals themselves), sons and daughters of civil servants, of the déclassé or landed gentry, and last but not least sons and daughters of… capitalists. Although they themselves either never did menial jobs or did them but for a moment to “prove themselves”, and although they hardly ever mingled with the working class people, they idolised them nonetheless.

Truth be told, on closer acquaintance with the working class members the intellectual do-gooders very soon grew deeply disappointed with them, with their way of life, jokes, likes and dislikes, mentality and custom and as a result they secretly despised them. In the countries where the do-gooders eventually established their political systems – which were known by the name of socialist or communist countries – they had as little to do with the working class as possible, living in luxurious houses or separate city quarters. Continue reading

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Gefira-Bulletin #27

Though the Italians have accused Germany of reviving and implementing the Walther Funk plan to exploit southern European EU member states, Germany itself is taking changes for the worse: its automotive industry is well on the way of being taken over by China, the country relies heavily on energy resources from Russia and an ever greater part of its population, mostly formally German citizens, pleads allegiance to Turkey. Europe – one of the most developed regions of the world – has troubles to overcome and so do some of the countries in the Far East. South Korea, which has copied the success of the Old World, is now experiencing much the same demographic problems. It can be saved, however, if its northern neighbour finally opens its borders up and allows its skilled and educated labour to go south. Remote though this scenario may seem, the probability of its fulfilment is more real than we tend to think.

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Though the Italians have accused Germany of reviving and implementing the Walther Funk plan to exploit southern European EU member states, Germany itself is taking changes for the worse: its automotive industry is well on the way of being taken over by China, the country relies heavily on energy resources from Russia and an ever greater part of its population, mostly formally German citizens, pleads allegiance to Turkey. Europe – one of the most developed regions of the world – has troubles to overcome and so do some of the countries in the Far East. South Korea, which has copied the success of the Old World, is now experiencing much the same demographic problems. It can be saved, however, if its northern neighbour finally opens its borders up and allows its skilled and educated labour to go south. Remote though this scenario may seem, the probability of its fulfilment is more real than we tend to think. Read more subscribe:

Gefira 27 Content

The demise of the German factory base; the next black swan.
Arrow one: Xi Jinping and manufacturing.
Arrow two: Vladimir Putin and energy.
Arrow three: Recep Tayyip Erdogan Islamic immigrants.

North Korea is the last economic growth opportunity.
First of all: demography.
Third: natural resources.
Fourth: geopolitics.

Recommendations.
German car manufacturers; the worst is still to come.
North Korea: the last economic growth opportunity.
Russia, the biggest winner of the energy transition.

Gefira-Bulletin #26

The world is in a period of transition. The populations of East Asia and Europe have reached their numerical zenith, and from now on they will begin descending. With the fall of communism, China, Central Europe and Russia returned to their natural, historical positions on the world's scene. Turkey's ambition is to follow in the former Ottoman Empire's footsteps: it intends to extend its influence in the Middle East, the Balkans and Africa. Europe and the US are in the process of disintegration of their respective populations. The economic, social and political situation in Europe is tense, with people increasingly voting for anti-establishment parties. There is a deep divide among European leaders over the euro, the fiscal, monetary and immigration policy.

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The European Union's actions against Hungary and Poland will stir up resentment and increase polarisation. The Gefira team believe that Brexit is a sideshow. European economies are heading slowly for a new recession which will spark off another euro crisis. Italy, Spain and France will not be willing to reduce their public debt, and Italy will be the first to rebel against European budget rules. By 2020 it will be clear that France and Spain are also not able to fulfil their fiscal obligations.

The ECB is already warning that growth is slowing down. The rising price of oil will be the last straw that breaks the camel's back. European governments cannot print oil, and if consumers and producers have to pay more for energy, corporate profits will be negatively affected, and there will be less money for consumption. The 2008 financial crisis began when oil was about $130 a barrel, and the euro crisis in 2011 started when it was $125 a barrel, so when the price is again above $100, the next crisis is just around the corner.

While oil is abundant for the coming years, the 3 significant producers will keep the markets in short supply.

The Gefira 26 is about the oil price and why it will continue to increase. Although President Trump tweets that he wants oil prices down, his administration is pursuing a policy that is running counter to this statement. The US needs a higher oil price to shore up its shale industry. To this end President Donald Trump has had Venezuela and Iran effectively removed from the oil markets. This policy overlaps with the objectives of the Saudi rulers who need a higher oil price to cover their public expenses and prevent social upheaval. In this Gefira we explain why a higher oil price is inevitable and why we evaluate Russian oil companies more positively than their Western counterparts like Shell and Exxon Mobil. Read more subscribe:

Gefira 26 Content

US and oil.
The oil price needs to go up.
Producers of cheap oil have to be removed from the market.
Investors have to be attracted to investing in risky and expensive energy projects.

Saudis on the brink of a precipice.
Policies to force Saudis into the workforce.
Social upheaval in the country of Muhammad.
Power structure another threat.
Only a high oil price can buy the Saudi rulers some extra time.

Recommendations.
Oil futures.
The end of big oil companies and the political risk factor.
Russia energy assets more valuable than Western oil and gas companies.

 
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