The collapse of the South Korean population: the countdown has begun

In the coming ten years eighty percent of the G20 countries will be facing an unprecedented population decline that will change the global economy profoundly. Economists and financial planners had better be aware of the coming demographic collapse in the so called developed world. Successful economies are literally on a path to extinction while those doing terribly are growing like weeds. The UN population projections are far too optimistic and have little to do with reality. The extreme low fertility rates in industrialized nation contradict the UN rosy-coloured forecasts. The South Korean government’s prognosis shows that within seven years the country’s population will start to shrink and, if the trend holds, the nation will go extinct in the far future. South Korea’s demographic collapse coincides with that of China; Japan is already shrinking at an incredible pace. The world’s second, third and eleventh economies will see their working force and consuming base becoming smaller and smaller, and somehow renowned analysts see no problem. As a rule of thumb, the working-age population, the group that produces and consumes the most, started to shrink ten years earlier. Continue reading

No, the EU isn’t militarizing Africa to halt migration but simply to organize it

We offer a counter-analysis to “EU Militarizes Africa to Halt Migration” that appeared on Strategic Culture Foundation.While the original article offers an interesting study of the latest neo-imperialist military involvement of European countries in Africa, spearheaded by French President Macron, we beg to differ on what is going to be the impact on migration flows and what are the EU goals. Recent events suggest a rather different conclusion. Let’s go in order.

Last summer, when the news that NGOs were shipping migrants to Italy and cooperating with traffickers surfaced, the newly elected Emmanuel Macron quickly came up with a solution: hotspots in Africa where people seeking protection could go to and apply for the status of refugee,and, if granted such a status, could be moved to Europe in an official way. Continue reading

Prague rebelled against Rome, then Moscow and now Brussels

Prague, the beginning of the 15th century. This central European city that could boast the first university east of the Elbe, the city, which for all practical purposes during the reign of Charles IV was the capital of the Holy Roman Empire, had an interdict imposed on it by the pope. It meant no masses could be said, no burials performed, no sacraments dispensed. People were frightened out of their wits: after all, their salvation was at stake and you could not be saved outside the Church.

Why was Prague banned from the “polite” European community? Because one of her preachers, John Hus, preached a different kind of Christianity than that taught by Rome. He was condemned. He was called out as a heretic. The interdict imposed on Prague was a kind of pressure exerted on the Czech authorities as well as on the whole society to gag John Hus’s mouth, and thus to stop the proliferation of his teachings. The Czech lay and ecclesiastical authorities caved in. Continue reading

Bannon’s target isn’t Trump, it’s still Kushner

2018 doesn’t look like it’ll be a quiet year: Iranian protests continue, and so do Trump and Kim Jong Un in their phallic measuring contest with nuclear weapons (“I have the button on my desk”“Oh yeah? I do, too, and mine is bigger”).

The former Chief Strategist Steve Bannon fires up the feud against his nemesis during the White House days, Jared Kushner.

The January 3rd edition of the British newspaper Guardianopens with “explosive revelations”. Michael Wolff interviews Steve Bannon about the latter’s book “Fire and Fury: inside the Trump White House”, which calls Donald Jr’s (Trump’s first born son) meetings with the Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya “treasonous” and “unpatriotic”.

Most media stop there. Most liberals, fuelled by their hatred towards Donald Trump, also stop there and take it to Twitter because that’s how far their political slacktivism can go. Then Trump replied on the wave of emotions and everything went nuclear. Since everyone seems to be too emotional not only to read through the lines, but actually to simply read the lines, we’ll offer some strategic analysis and put everything into context. Continue reading

Facebook helps the African exodus to Europe

In Europe, social media like Facebook and Twitter are removing posts and blocking authors opposing mass migration from the Third World as hate speech. The hostile attitude to literally hundreds of thousands of Africans from Nigeria, Morocco or Ghana flooding Italy, Sweden or Germany is considered extremist behaviour by them. At the same time Facebook and Twitter are instrumental in the biggest human exodus in modern history. Social media have not been limited to a communication or marketing function for a long time. Platforms like Facebook and Twitter contribute to the creation of the political situation, as the events related to the Arab Spring or Kiev’s Euromaidan. Social networks have also become a channel that helps to organize the transfer of Africans to Europe. Continue reading

Markets at the end of 2017 – a look at the year 2018

Every market analyst and observer believes that the markets always strive for a balance: the bull market is followed by the bear market and conversely. The art is to follow these waves.

Gefira Financial Bullletin #19 is Available now

We have been observing for over a year now, since the election of Trump as President, a huge wave of confidence. The financial markets believed in his policies and the strength of the American economy. The main indicators of the American stock markets are reaching one high after the other, breaking record after record. Investors are speculating on Trump’s tax reform, which promises huge relief for companies: corporate tax will be reduced from 35 to 20 percent. Private households will also pay lower taxes, but all special deductions will be abolished, so that the reform will not mean any changes for most citizens in the long term and will even be unfavourable for the poorest. Trump signed the Senate’s reform at Christmas, and now a correction is more likely to occur than further record-breaking, as markets are lacking a driving force for further growth. It is paradoxical, but good news only revives the stock markets in the short term, till profits are usually made. At present investors are waiting because they want to book profits for this accounting year, and now that they can, they will most likely reap them.

Continue reading

Star Wars for the splitting soul of America

The last episode of the successful movie – Star Wars – is actually a lot less about the stars in space and much more about culture and class. Most importantly, it reflects the dangerously growing disenfranchisement of the race-and-gender obsessed liberal upper class and everyone else.

The movie finally came out, the money started flowing and eventually the reviews arrived. The result? On the primary review sites Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes the critics loved it, the public did not, which left many wondering why.

Some explanations came out already: the good results are scientific, the bad ones are there because of internet trolls.Nope, there’s nothing scientific about subjective opinions, even if they (allegedly) represent the majority of those who express them. Science is, or should be, objective.

Trolls, more trolls,and finally, Russian interference.

That’s the cue to solving the enigma of the different ratings: the standard profile of the movie critic is a liberal arts graduate, easily identifiable by the verbosity of his writing and by the fact that he is easily impressed by cheap virtue-signalling elements like token ethnic minority leading characters and a strong female lead. As the movie panders (not even that much to be fair) to his ideological preferences, he gives high scores based on diversity and equality. The average-movie goer probably doesn’t care too much about politics. In a country where a “decisive’’ election like the last one, turnout is 55%, the biggest party by far is the one of those who stay at home. In comparison, in Europe important electoral dates easily get an 80% turnout. Continue reading

Christmas reading: The inevitability of war. Conflict is in our nature

“While people are saying, peace and safety, destruction will come on them suddenly, as labor pains on a pregnant woman, and they will not escape.” Are you, man or woman of Christian and European heritage, aware of this prophecy or do you prefer to live in a fancy world of happy-clappy wishful thinking that the brotherhood of men is about to put an end to human conflict once and for all? Though Christmastide is a time of merrymaking, it may also be a period of reflection. The Birth that we celebrate on Christmas Day was perceived by some as such a threat as to justify the Massacre of the Innocents. Peace and good will were closely intertwined with discord and hostility. Do you think we are living in better times? Do you think we are living in Fukuyama’s end of history?

War has persisted throughout history ever since the dawn of mankind. That’s probably the best indicator that it will persist for all eternity. Why should it cease? War for the purposes of this text is not merely the outright hostilities, the firing guns and resounding battle cries. It is a constant strife that is being played out on a day-to-day basis which now and again erupts into its dramatic form of the opposing armies acting on the theatre of war. Why do we broaden the definition of war? If only because casualties – and we mean loss of lives – are not necessarily the highest during the time of the roaring guns. Those sustained during the periods of peace may be just as high or even higher. Case in point: the Yeltsin era in Russia lasting for roughly ten years. Within that decade, life expectancy plummeted from 70 down to 60, which means that the country’s loss of lives amounted to the magnitude comparable to that during any war, which is millions. This loss of life was brought about by social and economic reforms i.e. steps taken supposedly to make the living standards better and these were demanded or suggested or advised by the powers outside Russia. The result? Closed down factories, laid off employees, poverty and the attendant disease and demise of many. Were these not regular hostilities? Continue reading

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Gefira-Bulletin #19

Gefira #19 deals with the insoluble European economic imbalance, President Trump’s Jerusalem announcement as a brilliant move that has little to do with Israel, the revival of Central Europe, and Erdoğan’s grand plan for the Old Continent.

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Gefira #19 deals with the insoluble European economic imbalance, President Trump’s Jerusalem announcement as a brilliant move that has little to do with Israel, the revival of Central Europe, and Erdoğan’s grand plan for the Old Continent. Read more subscribe:

Gefira 19 Content

United States oil independence
The Jewish interest
Turkey, the new Ottomans

France’s labour reforms, a lot of fuss about nothing.
The Visegrád Group on the rise.
Prepare for the comeback of Central Europe
Why Poland

Why shares of small Polish companies
The United Kingdom will be the first Western country to implode

Gefira-Bulletin #18

Real estate, bonds, cryptocurrencies and stocks are at an all-time high, and many economists and analysts are warning of a bubble that can burst at any moment. However, there is one asset class that is still very cheap and that is energy. The price of a barrel of oil has increased a little, but it is relatively low.

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Real estate, bonds, cryptocurrencies and stocks are at an all-time high, and many economists and analysts are warning of a bubble that can burst at any moment. However, there is one asset class that is still very cheap and that is energy. The price of a barrel of oil has increased a little, but it is relatively low. Affordable energy prices in combination with free money are the drivers of economic growth in Europe, Asia, and the US. The Gefira team expects that the global economy will come crashing down as the oil price starts soaring again in the coming years. A steep increase in oil price will benefit shale oil producers and is necessary to make the US independent, but it will harm China and Europe. The US Middle East policy objectives are meant to secure oil supply for the US and its Western allies. Now that China has overtaken the US as the largest oil importer, the Chinese are the beneficiaries of this policy. This new reality will change the US Middle East policy. Now a higher oil price will cause more mayhem in the Middle East, which can be to Washington’s advantage. Disrupting one’s competitors’ supply chain and supporting domestic producers is nothing new in history. Read more subscribe:

Gefira 18 Content

Economy and demographics
The future of oil
China the last man standing

The US oil strategy is leaving the Middle East and moving to Texas
A higher oil price: Putin wins, Europe loses
Russia and the US joint interest: more chaos in the Middle East
The future of oil

Currencies – a brief overview
Venezuela is a geopolitical debt problem

 
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