Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow




Mini-Bots – Thorn in the Eye of Brussels, Rescue for Rome

The renunciation of one’s own sovereignty costs a lot. If a country decides to join the Eurozone, it must accept that it will not be able to devalue its currency in the event of an economic crisis. The Italian Lega is now trying to fulfil its election promises, even though the state coffers are empty. The solution? A parallel currency.

The idea is nothing new. What Claudio Borghi, the economic expert of the Lega Nord, came up with was tried out by Argentine society at the turn of the century: in 2001 the government in Buenos Aires launched “cuasimonedas” to plug its debt hole. Each province issued treasury bonds to meet payment obligations. The most popular became the Patacones of Buenos Aires province, which were given mainly to those employed in the state sector and social recipients, but with which one could pay everywhere.

The introduction of Argentina’s parallel currency initially led to chaos in the country: the rich transferred their dollars abroad (a total of more than 100 billion), the poor and the middle class had no choice and immediately spent the Patacones they received in fear of them becoming worthless overnight. However, this spurred consumption and helped the economy to get back on its feet. The good 2002 and 2003 harvests and the rising commodity prices on the world markets also helped to ease the financial situation of this eighth-largest country in the world. Argentina survived the crisis because it was able to devalue its money and because it has the most fertile soil in the world.
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The New Tanker War – Trump Pampers the US Shale Oil Industry

The situation in the Gulf of Oman is getting worse. After the attacks on two tankers, Khamenei said that he would never sit at the negotiating table with the US again.So Iran will continue its nuclear program till the Israeli strategists interpret its advancement as unacceptable and will have Iranian targets attacked. Up to this time a new tanker war is more likely than 30 years ago, of which Gefira warned already in autumn 2018. Our forecasts proved correct.

The attacks could indeed have been carried out by Iranians, and it is quite possible that they were a provocation of the Americans. Such a hypothesis is justified by the analysis of the history of the conflict between the Great Satan and Iran. In August 1953, MI6 and CIA overthrew democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadeq for wanting to nationalize the British Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (now BP). The company earned huge sums, of which Iran received hardly anything. The CIA’s Shah Reza Pahlavi, installed in place of Mossadeq, guaranteed the US that Iran would not cross over to the Soviet Union. With the help of the Americanshe founded the secret service SAVAK, which suppressed the population, tortured and committed numerous murders.The Americans were not bothered by this for decades, but today they are outraged by the violation of human rights in Iran: indeed by the violation of their interests in the region.
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The road to modern wars

President Trump pursues a policy combining military threat with economic warfare and his aim is to restore American hegemony especially in view of the rising contender: China. Beijing has been acquiring technological knowledge and started expanding beyond the borders, having easier access to Central Asia and the Pacific than Americans.

In 2015, when Trump stood for election, we wrote: “Trump’s war rhetoric is very popular with his audiences and is a step beyond Obama’s statement about American exceptionalism. In New Hampshire, Trump nearly declared war on China as he stated: ‘Take a look at China what they have done, they have taken our money, our jobs, our base, our manufacturing, and we owe them 1.5 trillion dollars that’s like a magic act, they have taken everything, and we owe them money.’ Mr Trump did not tell his audience that bringing back jobs comes at a cost. China’s GDP per capita is around 7,500 dollars, while the GDP per capita of the US is about 55,000 dollars. The China rhetoric is unambiguous; China stole what belongs to the US, and there is no need to repay US debt owed to China. The world should brace for Mr Trump as the 45th president of the USA.

Gefira Financial Bulletin #34 is available now

  • A hand of cards or the ongoing events
  • Anti-Semitism of Indigenous Europeans?
  • Greater Israel

President Trump wants to dictate to the whole world, but, taking into account the fact that the United States is now in conflict with Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, Syria, Russia, China and North Korea, a big war is not to be expected any time soon, so much so that the military interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Yemen and Libya appear to be inconclusive. Washington has an arsenal of other measures and these include:

  1. fighting a war by proxy like the financing Afghan resistance to Russians in the eighties of the previous century.
  2. imposing economic sanctions and blocking bank accounts. This has worked very well against small countries. It seems to be less effective in the case of Iran and almost ineffective in the case of Russia. China and Russia are accelerating their efforts to set up alternative payment systems and Europeans – recall Germany’s adherence to the Nord Stream 2 project in defiance of American pressure – are not willing to cooperate with the United States in this respect.
  3. sparking coloured revolutions like the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine or the 2009 Green Revolution in Iran. The strategy has not always worked as expected: the attempt to overthrow the Venezuelan government has failed.

As an aside we might notice that these revolutions might also be used the the West’s enemies. They can only occur in politically and economically unstable societies and that is – increasingly – the plight of the United States and Europe, both riven with ethnic and religious divides. Iran, Turkey, Russia and China can arm factions within Europe and thus destabilize these countries from the inside, as the Americans have done in Syria. The Turkish government has an extensive network of Diyanet mosques that can distribute weapons in the suburbs of Paris, Lyon and Marseilles.

Washington is in two minds about its foreign policy. The Democrats wanted to continue the interference in the Middle East and especially in Syria, where during President Barack Obama’s tenure the Jihadists of almost every political hue were armed to expel President Bashar al-Assad. The Jewish lobby in Washington is striving for a confrontation with Iran, which may prove to be costly, though. The coalition forged by Tehran with Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq is viewed as a direct threat to Israel, which means that Tel Aviv will sooner or later have President Trump bomb Iran. Recall the 1981 Israeli raid on the Iraqi nuclear reactor.

Source: AIPAC pro-Israel Lobby

Though most of Trump’s supporters are not interested in a war with Iran, the tensions are likely to escalate. The Turks have already indicated that they are not prepared to pay a higher price for oil and may try to circumvent sanctions. Rumour has it that the Chinese have stopped buying Iranian oil. Probably the Chinese brought this news to deceive the American administration. The world economy cannot afford a high price for energy. If the American voter sees the oil price rise at the pump as a result of another useless war, this will not help President Trump in the elections on November 3, 2020. Alas! Read more in Gefira 34

 

UKRAINE: Are we in for a white revolution, assassination or coup d’etat?

“I request you to release of duty the head of security, the attorney general and the minister of the defence,” said Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in his inaugural speech which he delivered on 20th of May. Were the head of security, the attorney general and the minister of the defence listening? Obviously they were and this might spring them into action. Is it only their posts that the new president is after? Or their heads as well?

While addressing both houses of parliament, Volodymyr Zelensky appealed to the deputies to have new laws passed abolishing the immunity of the members of the legislative and imposing severe punishments for those who have enriched themselves illegally. Ultimately, much to the disbelief of the present, the new head of state said he was dissolving parliament with immediate effect, which means that also the deputies have just lost their well-paying jobs.

Will a coalition form between them and the three ministers who already know they are not tolerated by Volodymyr Zelensky? Is what the new president said a show of political zeal for his so numerous voters (73% of the ballot)? Is he backed by such strong powers that he does not need to reckon with the consequences?

Pundits have been and are still pointing to the political inexperience of the new president. Inexperienced he might well be, but even so would he be acting so foolishly right at the start of his tenure, turning his potential allies and important figures into his bitter enemies? Or were they his bitter enemies anyway and Volodymyr Zelensky merely forestalled their insidious action that is brewing anyway?
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The coming end of the Finnish welfare system

Author: Max Stucki

At the time of writing this, the negotiations to form the next Finnish government are in full swing. Currently, a red-green coalition, aided by either the liberal conservative National Coalition Party or the centrist-agrarian Center Party, seems a likely option. However, nothing is certain since the elections produced no clear winner. The three largest parties all gathered around 17% of the votes indicating a fractured electoral base.The negotiations might actually continue for some time to come.

The elections campaigns and debates were characterized by two things. First, there was much speculation regarding the popularity of the national conservative Finns Party, which changed its leadership in 2017 causing a split within the party. Second, the climate change was a major issue, which was extensively discussed and gained much visibility during the campaigning.

Both themes become understandable when considering the largely leftist-green discourse within the Finnish media. The rise of the Finns Party was feared, as its success could undermine the visions of the idealists inhabiting the larger cities, especially Helsinki and its surroundings. The climate change, on the other hand, was shamelessly utilized as a political tool to win votes of those struck by the climate anxiety.

It is telling, that the politicians were discussing with straight faces how Finland could work to stop the climate change. The notion that Finland with its puny population of 5,5 million could affect the climate in any meaningful way is demonstrably absurd, even insane. So, either the Finnish politicians have utterly lost their touch with the reality, or become mad, or are cynically lying. Given the track record of politicians in general, the last option is the likeliest one, which just proves the fact that in order to be a successful politician, one needs an utter and condescending contempt towards the voters. Otherwise the talk about the climate change remains incomprehensible. Continue reading

A criminal phenomenon

AN INTERVIEW WITH FRANCESCA TOTOLO

“Never before has a criminal phenomenon enjoyed widespread international support by governments, political parties, religious and civilian organizations, popular opinion, and never before has a sovereign state renounced to exercise control over its borders.”

These opening words by Gianandrea Gaiani are a fitting introduction to Francesca Totolo’s latest book Inferno Spa. Gaiani is no stranger to the business of illegal immigration, being an author of several books on the subject. He was interviewed by Gefira in 2017 when the Italian government was then still a center-left pro-migrants coalition. Totolo has agreed to an exclusive interview for Gefira and we recently met her in Florence, where she was presenting her new book.

Francesca Totolo is a freelance investigative journalist and collaborates with a variety of Italian and international press agencies and websites. Her investigations have been published both in Italy and abroad. We could easily call Totolo a diligent – and outspoken – journalist as her new book, which she wrote with Dante’s Inferno in mind, involves just that: solid, painstaking, diligent research and fact-checking. The result is the equivalent of an encyclopedia of who’s who in the business (Spa is the Italian acronym for joint-stock company, equivalent of the German AG) of the immigrants’ industry, an industry which moves an unending flow of human beings and money.
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Ukrainians force themselves to speak Ukrainian (to inform the whole world that they are a separate nation)

Two recent events. One: Ukrainian parliament passed a law imposing the use of the Ukrainian language. Two: almost concurrently Moscow introduced a law within the meaning of which residents of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics may apply for Russian citizenship.

The law on language makes it mandatory that Ukrainian be spoken in all public places, that 90% of TV output and at least 50% of printed publications be in this language. An observant reader – without further research – will have noticed that at present not even 50% of books are available in Ukrainian. To make things even funnier, the president-elect – Volodymyr Zelenskiy – is a native speaker of Russian and it was Russian which was used almost exclusively in the first season of the TV series in which he played the main role, the role which catapulted him to the presidency. Ukrainian national identity must be in deep trouble if it has to be propped up by such laws.

Imagine a similar law being passed in any of the European Union member states, a law imposing one language and ousting another. What a howl of indignation would be raised with the ready gamut of wild accusations of nationalism, Nazism and chauvinism. Yet, in the case of Ukraine, no one has raised a brow.

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The Japanese disease spreads around the globe

You may have heard about the Japanese disease, a disease that is harrowing the developed world, a disease that sprang up in Japan and so was named accordingly. No? No wonder. It is no biological ailment like HIV or a new form of metastasis. Though, when you come to think of it it is biological after all. It is somehow biological in that people in all the richest and economically advanced countries – be it in Asia, in Europe, in North America or Australia – have long stopped multiplying. Crescite et multiplicamini is no more an option for a citizen of an affluent society. Hedonism is. Whether it is mental or economic, controlled by the powers that be or spontaneous is not the point here. The effects are palpable and that’s what matters. Economies built on debt creation have an urgent need to grow in order to pay off the debt; growth is generated by rising consumption; consumption means demand and it is humans, especially young, who stimulate demand. The young are on the decline. With every year, every decade. True, the life expectation in the developed countries is far longer than elsewhere in the world but it is not the old people who boost demand. Old people have bought what they needed and that’s basically it. Oh yes, they create one kind of demand: for medical care, but this is paid for by the whole of society.

Gefira Financial Bulletin #33 is available now

  • The Japanese disease spreads around the globe
  • China: The October Revolution: déjà vu?
  • Expropriation – a policy of long standing

Few young people translate into small demand, which means no economic boost, hence no growth, all of which resulting in an ever growing debt. What is to be done? There are a few ways out of this trouble. Idea number one: import young people from the rest of the world. Idea number two: make the members of the middle class pay through their noses to alleviate the burden that the whole society must carry. And forge an apt and convincing ideology to make all this work in the minds of citizens. Are foreigners flooding Western Europe and the United States. Enrichment and a human obligation to help humans in distress. Negative interest rates and higher taxes? Social solidarity. Surely nobody is against such highbrow ideals?

In this Gefira issue we draw our readers’ attention to the Japanese disease mentioned above and what it entails. Effects have their causes. Once white Europeans have decided to stop having children, that’s ok, but then they must say farewell to affluent society or… or try to make up for the lost numbers the unborn scions: they must adopt the “refuse of the earth” as it is inscribed on the plinth of the Statue of Liberty. And give up on some of your accumulated riches. The West has saved a lot by not having children, and now it needs to give a lot away to provide for the ageing society and keep it alive. If crescite et multiplicamini had been given the pride of place on the list of the modern man’s priorities, he would not be in the present plight. Alas! Read more in Gefira 33

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Gefira-Bulletin #35

History is not a science in the strict sense of the word: you cannot pour human populations, into test tubes, heat up and agitate them to see how they mingle and whether the mixture has better qualities than its constituent ingredients. Yet, it does not mean that there are no experiments in history: History carries them out on its own and the only thing an analyst has to do is to identify them and draw inferences. If something happens at present, it has its parallels at a point in the past, somewhere on the globe. Hence the saying that history repeats itself or the adage: nothing new under the sun. Russian folk wisdom says that anything that we call new is merely something that has been long forgotten (Новое – это хорошо забытое старое).

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The white man's world – Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand – is undergoing a process that the Germans call Umvolkung, the French – Le grand remplacement, and the English – ethnic replacement. Its advocates preach the gospel of the non-existence of human races or significant differences between them, of the blessings of multi=cultural societies and generally the inevitability of this epic change. All past events are interpreted in a manner that is supposed to convince the average white man that he can only benefit from what the multi-racial, multi-racional and multi-confessional future holds. But does it? In the June bulletin of Gefira we show our readers around one of History's laboratories known as South Africa, where races, nations and creeds have been poured into a test tube, heated up and agitated, and produced a specific mixture whose characteristics we can analyze and eventually arrive at the right conclusions. Whether we embrace or reject the future served us on a silver platter by social engineers, we ought to at least take the trouble to know what we are in for. One does not buy clothes or shoes without first trying them on. And since History is kind enough to let us into her many laboratories, why should we reject such an invitation?

Gefira-Bulletin #34

The Middle East – a large cake stretching from Turkey to Afghanistan, and from Egypt to Oman – was torn away from the once great and Ottoman Empire in the wake of the First World War and then carved up arbitrarily by the victorious French and the British, who were subsequently busy creating “nations” by drawing – at times – straight-line borders and setting up a Jewish state, absent from the region for roughly two millenniums. After the Second World War the Middle East was a playground for proxy wars fought initially by the United States and the Soviet Union, and then, after 1991, between the United States and Russia with China making first modest inroads. Over that period the population of the particular states shot up three- four- and even tenfold, the hostilities displaced hundreds of thousands, at first mainly Palestinians, recently Syrians, part of whom have made their way to Europe.

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The tensions between the United States and the majority of the Arab world overlap with those between Saudi Arabia (an American ally) and (anti-American) Iran, both striving for gaining a dominant position in the region. Russian inactivity for almost two decades has been replaced with Moscow's successful intervention in Syria, bringing about a more favourable attitude of the Islamic countries towards Russia, with even Turkey – a NATO member – considering the purchase of Russian military equipment. Israel, an entrenched country, has been waging mainly a successful protracted war against its closer and farther neighbours, while multiplying its settlements in the West Bank and enjoying the unwavering friendship and of Washington with whom it is likely to provoke a military conflict between Riyadh and Tehran.
 
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