It is very hard to predict who in the end will be the next president of the USA. But the world should realize Donald Trump is a very serious established GOP candidate who has a very high chance of winning the 2016 elections. Especially outside the US this prospect is not taken seriously yet. Our conclusion is the opposite: one better be prepared for Donald Trump as the next president of the USA.
Many European and Asian analysts see Donald Trump as part of the USA media-show frenzy but hardly regard him as a serious contester for the US presidency. Mr. Trump is framed as an outsider who threatens the status quo, but this couldn’t be further from the truth.
According to our analysis, Mr. Trump is the most established GOP candidate with support from all over the US political elite and media establishment. He has full support from the GOP and media establishment. The McCain remark by Mr. Trump: “McCain is not a Hero” is supported by many veterans. Some GOP leaders will be sacrificed for the show, and some will despise Mr. Trump for his aggressive remarks, but cross the board he is admired and a well- respected GOP member and acknowledged by the US political elite across the political spectrum. He is not an outsider as he likes to frame himself.
The US media scrutinize Trump on some nonissues. The so-called critical media interviews were unconvincing; they were executed by journalists who were no match for him. It had nothing to do with serious politics. In fact, the US corporate media is launching Trump as the new GOP Brand. Trump is not Mrs. Palin who stunned Europe and Asia as the running mate for McCain during the 2008 elections. Mrs. Palin was despised by the media elite while Trump is being admired. Mrs. Palin is as simple minded as her supporters while Trump is far more clever than his audience, he knows that he is lying to them. He is a calculated businessman that plays with his victims, the ideal candidate for the US corporate establishment the ideal candidate for Wall Street.
Compare the media hype around Donald Trump with the 2012 maverick: Ron Paul. Ron Paul received zero media attention.
Mr. Trump as a possible presidential candidate will drastically affect the US relation with its neighbors, Europe and Asia. His political campaign is based on polarizing rhetoric directed at foreigners and foreign countries. Mr. Trump is a very talented and smart person, much more talented than Bush or Obama. We are even sure he is very well able to deal with the European and Asian elite on a personal basis. But global politics is not about personal relations, it is about creating coalitions that connect nations. And here Mr. Trump will become a liability for the US foreign policy.
Mr. Trump’s campaign is full blown war rhetoric, in New Hampshire Mr. Trump stated clearly: “I want to make our military so strong, so powerful, so great that nobody is going to mess with us.” At the moment, the US is the biggest spender in absolute and relative terms on military expenditure.
This war rhetoric is very popular with US audiences and is a step beyond Obama’s statement about American exceptionalism. In New Hampshire, Trump nearly declared war with China as he stated: “Take a look at China what they have done, they have taken our money, our jobs, our base, our manufacturing, and we owe them 1.5 Trillion dollars that’s like a magic act, they have taken everything and we owe them money.” Mr. Trump did not tell his audience that bringing back jobs comes at a cost. China’s GDP per capita is around 7,500 dollars while the GDP per capita of the US is about 55,000 dollars.
The China rhetoric is unambiguous; China stole what belongs to the US and there is no need to repay US debt owed to China.
The world should brace for Mr. Trump as the 45th president of the USA.
For European and Asian political elites it will be very hard to sell the US’s leading role to their constituents with Mr. Trump as president. Trump does not only humiliate and depict the Chinese as thieves and manipulators but also the Japanese. Politicians that lobbied for TTIP and TPP could suffer enormous political backlash and damage as in 2016 US policy will be a synonym for war like rhetoric against Chinese, Japanese and Mexicans. Within a year, Mr. Trump’s rhetoric will not only affect the US political campaign but the US’s standing in the World.