Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow

Disappearing nations the “new normal” in economics

Ten times a year the Gefira Research Team publishes the Gefira Financial Bulletin, which is indispensable to investors and traders. We are the only ones who provide valuable information and in-depth analysis with a particular focus on the demographic impact on the world’s economy.

Investors need to have greater awareness that before long the developed world will have crossed the demographic Rubicon, reaching a point of no return, where economic growth will no longer be possible. Whatever we may choose to apply, whether Trump’s tax plan, Keynesian stimuli or modern money printing, it will not revive the global economy. Why?

The answer is obvious even if it escapes the attention of the renowned economists. For many centuries now Europe plus North America, Australia and New Zealand (extensions of the old continent) together with north-east Asian countries have been the driving force of the global economy. The rest of the world – the Third World – has supplied natural resources and consumed what the First World has produced, given it has earned money from the sale of the resources. The ever shrinking population in the First World translates into an ever decreasing use of the resources, which in turn means that a smaller demand for them will not generate sufficient income for the constantly rising population in Africa and Asia. Now the Western establishment aims at replenishing the disappearing white indigenous people with migrants of other continents in the hope that they will continue the civilisational job as well as maintain the technological progress. We do not share this optimistic view. We are not likely to have Nigerian, Somali, Pakistani or Afghan engineers who are going to be as bright, inventive and productive as their German, French or British colleagues or predecessors. What makes us think so?

The past and the present. Third World countries have been in contact with the European civilisation for centuries and they have failed to adopt at least some of its solutions, social or technological, to advance themselves. People of the Third World descent – whether in the United States or Europe, and quite independently of whether they are migrants or with a migrant background or residents for generations – tend to be recipients of the benefits of the social security system rather than productive members of the respective nations. Such are facts. Meanwhile social dreamers want us to believe that India and Africa will be the next growth engines to pull the world’s economy forwards. Rather, the reverse is in the making: the shrinking efficient few will have to provide for the numerically expanding many who time and again prove to be less productive, doing ill-educated or unskilled, and over-represented in crime. We are not talking about a distant future; the first cracks are already visible.

Consider the worldwide oil consumption. It is falling in the developed countries and hardly rising in Africa. This phenomenon alone is a far more deadly threat to OPEC than the so-called Tesla revolution or the introduction of electric cars. Though governments, central and commercial banks, as well as investors are desperately trying to revive the global economy, their efforts are doomed to fail if the economically most successful nations are shrinking with at incredible pace. We predict that the next financial crisis will arise within 2 to 5 years.

We have already been extremely successful in anticipating the future. In 2015 we told our readers that Donald Trump could be the next President and that Brexit was possible. We also explained why there was no chance that Marine Le Pen might win the election or that Catalonia could secede from Spain. We advised our readers to invest in bitcoin when the cryptocurrency traded about 900 euro. Two years ago as oil traded at 35 dollars a barrel we told our readers oil would be trading above 100 dollars before 2020, due to lack of proper investments in the oil industry and geopolitical tensions.

These are the reasons why we think that the Gefira Financial Bulletin is indispensable to investors and traders worldwide.

To read Gefira Financial Research full analyses and economic forecast: Subscribe to the Gefira Financial Bulletin and receive the next ten numbers complete with free access to our archive for just 225 euros


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The Gefira Financial Bulletin is a private briefing paper on the current economic events for investors and generally the business community. It is accompanied by our website, where you will find articles on social issues.

The Gefira research team is the only one that is acutely aware of the importance of the current unprecedented demographic changes not seen before in all of history.

The Gefira  research team elaborates its anticipation, drawing on:

1. an extensive knowledge of finance and banking;

2. a comprehensive understanding of geopolitics and history;

3. detailed data analyses of millions of records;

4. computer-aided simulations.


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