Global Analysis from the European Perspective. Preparing for the world of tomorrow

The dissolution of the European societies

France’s President Emmanuel Macron is following in the footsteps of his predecessor in that he is scoring lower and lower on the popularity polls. A man from nowhere, whose only task was to stop Marine Le Pen from winning, is continuing the policy pursued by his puppet masters, and he cannot but comply. The measures that he took or which he had been advised to take encountered popular resistance. It remains a matter of time before we learn whether the Yellow Vests movement is a spontaneous one, or a manifestation of the power struggle that is splitting the French elites, or external interference – Russian or American.

The Old Continent’s problems have merely been allayed for a time, and as such they are like a ticking bomb only waiting for favourable circumstances to go off. The Quantitative Easing programme that was implemented a few years ago clearly shows that Europe is depriving itself of one of the most important economic instruments which is money because money printed at will cannot properly be called money. If we add to this the demographic collapse and the attendant emergence of warring factions among the member states who roughly fall into two groups of those which want and those which refuse to accept Third World immigrants, we get Europe’s most representative selfie and this portrait looks bleak.

Gefira Financial Bullletin #31 is available now

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We don’t know which of the many tectonic plates – political, economic, demographic – and where will clash with the fiercest impetus but we know that the resultant earthquake is likely to sweep governments and disrupt the whole current balance of powers. Neither Russia, China nor the United States are or will be standing idle by. They will take full advantage of any opportunity which a weakened Europe will offer them on a silver platter in order to broaden their influence (in the case of Washington and Moscow) or to strengthen their foothold (especially in the case of Beijing).

The elites are fully aware of the approaching violent changes and yet are incapable of averting them. The same occurred in the decades leading up to the February and then October revolution in Russia or in the decades before the French Revolution. History seems to be running its own course without paying heed to the wishes or attempts of even the powerful actors that it makes use of in its play. Remember the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand a month before the outbreak of the Great War? The same is expected nowadays. Where will such a shot be fired? Will it be a dispute over money? Another crisis like the one in Greece? A tug-of-war about immigrant quotas? Will it be an ethnic clash between the “new” and old Europeans?

The internal problems of the European Union are growing fast and the Union’s top ranking politicians have no idea of how to solve the ongoing debt crisis. Rather, they are entrenched in their denial of the demographic reality which is bleak: Within 80 years the overall world population will grow from 7.5 to 11 billion, but the number of the most productive people will decline by a stunning 60%. This will have a huge adverse impact on the economy in Europe, the United States and the Far East. Still, the topic is a minefield that scientists, politicians and journalist do not dare to tread upon.

The Gefira financial bulletin is a monthly periodical that the Gefira team releases ten times a year. We give a clear projection of the future of energy and politics.From Trump’s election to the steep increase in the oil price and the value of bitcoin, it was all in the Gefira before it happened.

According to the Gefira team, the next systemic crisis will happen around 2020 as the oil price is back at 100 dollar and German mass retirement begin. There is a high risk of war on the Old Continent. However, it is not Russia but Turkey that is the most imminent threat.

It is not the emerging markets, nor public or private debt that should be of interest to investors but instead the shrinking populations in the developed world. Japan is the first country that experiences a diminishing number of people, and for that reason, it pursuing extraordinary monetary and fiscal policies.The decrease in the European and US populations will have dire economic consequences, and after 2025 China will join the club of dying nations.

Apart from China and Russia, economic growth in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia is dependent on the developed countries which see a dramatic shrinkage of their populations.

On our Website, we have articles from our research team whereas in the Gefira Financial Bulletin we give a comprehensive explanation of the coming world. We focus primarily on economic, investment and strategic subjects. We focus on 2020 as the financial breaking point.

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From the perspective of investors and financial planners we focus on such issues as:

  • geopolitical risks
  • demographics
  • private and public debt
  • assets bubbles
  • cryptocurrencies
  • energy security

The Gefira Financial Bulletin is a confidential briefing paper on the current economic events for investors and generally the business community. It is accompanied by our website, where you will find articles on social issues. The Gefira research team is the only one that is acutely aware of the importance of the current unprecedented demographic changes not seen before in all of history.

The Gefira research team elaborates its anticipation, drawing on:

  • an extensive knowledge of finance and banking;
  • a comprehensive understanding of geopolitics and history;
  • detailed data analyses of millions of records;
  • computer-aided simulations.

With best regards

T.Dankers, Editor-in-chief

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