Amid slowing global momentum and concerns over Brexit and trade disputes, the economy ministry on Wednesday cut its estimate to 0.5 percent, half the pace previously forecast. It’s the latest in a series of downward revisions from a 2.1 percent projection a year ago. Growth for next year is seen at 1.5 percent. Source Bloomberg
The authorities of Republika Srpska, with the announcement of the establishment of the reserve police department, have once again stirred the public but also caused the reactions of the international community. This could mean the establishment and arming of police reserves in Republika Srpska. Source: Sarajevo Times
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on April 17 reasserted Turkey’s opposition to the US sanctions regime directed at Iran and said Turkish officials were looking into establishing new trade mechanisms with the Islamic Republic. Source: BNE Intel News
“The Greek government intends to address a note verbale to the Federal Republic of Germany, in which it will repeat its inalienable claims arising from the Nazi invasion and occupation, as well as the war crimes of Nazi Germany,” he told lawmakers and asked them to back the move.
According to the committee report, which has estimated the cost of occupation at up to 300 billion euros. Source: Ekathimerini
Investments by German businesses into Russia reached their highest level for a decade last year, topping €3 billion, according to a statement from the Russian-German Chamber of Commerce (ECP). At the same time, the number of German firms operating in Russia fell from over 6,000 to around 4,500 over the same period. Source The Moscow Times
A top executive from Germany’s central bank urged the European finance industry to form a digital and app-based payment system to counteract progress made by tech giants including Apple and Google, Die Welt reported. Source Mobile World
The record number of foreigners lived in Germany in 2018, and their number increased by 292,000 last year and now stands at 10.9 million. The number of people who moved from Croatia to Germany in 2018 was 27,772, according to the German State Statistical Institute in Wiesbaden, reports 24sata.hr on April 16, 2019. Source Total-Croatia-News
One of Northern Ireland’s “most promising” journalists has been shot dead during rioting that police are treating as a terrorist incident. Dissident republicans are being blamed for killing 29-year-old Lyra McKee after violence broke out during police searches in Londonderry on Thursday. Source: BBC
Spain’s far-right Vox party has been banned from a televised debate leading up to the general elections. The April 23 debate is the only debate scheduled before the April 28 elections. The anti-immigration party was banned from the debate following a ruling from the electoral commission. The commission argued that Vox’s inclusion was not “proportional” because the party currently holds no seats in the national parliament. Source: Euronews
The U.S. State Department spokesperson has called on countries to “follow Malta’s example” and block Russian military planes en route for Venezuela from using their airspace. Source Moscow Times
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will meet in Russia later this month, the Kremlin announced Thursday. Source: CNN
“The Western liberal model of development, which particularly stipulates a partial loss of national sovereignty – this is what our Western colleagues aimed at when they invented what they called globalization – is losing its attractiveness and is no more viewed as a perfect model for all. Moreover, many people in the very western countries are skeptical about it,” Lavrov said. Source: Tass
Years after the company first dismissed fears it was empowering extremists, Facebook has permanently banned a number of right-wing organisations and individuals including the British National party (BNP), the English Defence League (EDL) and Britain First . Source: The Guardian
The forty-year-old was arrested Thursday at the detention center in Vincennes (Val-de-Marne), confused by his DNA found in the basilica. A Pakistani national, he arrived in France two months ago and does not speak French. He has already received a reminder to the law for having degraded property twice in February. Source: Le Parisien
The authorities of Republika Srpska, with the announcement of the establishment of the reserve police department, have once again stirred the public but also caused the reactions of the international community. This could mean the establishment and arming of police reserves in Republika Srpska. Source: Sarajevo Times
Chaos in Libya following General Khalifa Haftar’s offensive has increased the risk of terrorist presence on migrant boats headed for Italy, Interior Minister Matteo Salvini said, adding the country’s ports would remain closed. Source: Reuters
The eurozone’s manufacturing sector remains stuck in a rut as its two largest economies missed expectations and continued to contract in April, according to a closely watched survey of industry executives.
The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing in Germany rose slightly to 44.5 from 44.1 previously, but this was below expectations in a Reuters poll of an increase to 45.Source Financial Times
Poland’s industrial sector maintained a decent rate of activity in March, despite a slowdown in Germany and the eurozone. Still, GDP in the first quarter should moderate due to weaker contributions from construction and transportation. Source: ING Think
Amazon.com Inc said it will shut its China online store by July 18, as the U.S. e-commerce giant focuses on the lucrative businesses of selling overseas goods and cloud services in the world’s most populous nation. Source: Reuters
European stocks and the euro were hit on Thursday after a business survey showed the German manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth month in a row, adding to concerns around the sector and pushing investors into the safety of euro zone government bonds. Source: Reuters
Apple Inc was accused in a new lawsuit of securities fraud for concealing a slump in demand for iPhones, particularly in China, leading to a $74 billion one-day slide in its market value once the truth became known. The complaint filed on Tuesday seeks damages for investors who bought Apple stock in the two months before Chief Executive Tim Cook on Jan. 2 unexpectedly reduced Apple’s quarterly revenue forecast as much as $9 billion, in part because of the intensifying U.S. trade war with China. Source: Reuters
Poland’s ruling conservative party Law and Justice (PiS) has said that the country has no immediate intention of joining the eurozone and has invited other political parties to sign a joint declaration, which contains an assurance that Poland will adopt the euro only when it reaches the economic level of western countries. Source: Emerging Europe
Amid slowing global momentum and concerns over Brexit and trade disputes, the economy ministry on Wednesday cut its estimate to 0.5 percent, half the pace previously forecast. It’s the latest in a series of downward revisions from a 2.1 percent projection a year ago. Growth for next year is seen at 1.5 percent. Source Bloomberg
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on April 17 reasserted Turkey’s opposition to the US sanctions regime directed at Iran and said Turkish officials were looking into establishing new trade mechanisms with the Islamic Republic. Source: BNE Intel News
“The Greek government intends to address a note verbale to the Federal Republic of Germany, in which it will repeat its inalienable claims arising from the Nazi invasion and occupation, as well as the war crimes of Nazi Germany,” he told lawmakers and asked them to back the move.
According to the committee report, which has estimated the cost of occupation at up to 300 billion euros. Source: Ekathimerini
Gefira tracks the global players in Europe, the USA, Russia and China and anticipates the consequences of their policies
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Europe's geopolitical situation resembles that of 1913.
The enlargement of the European Union to the east, Germany's Ostpolitik, economic power and its reluctance to align its policy with France's and Italy's make the break-up of the Union unavoidable. While Germany is gaining a status of a financial superstar, German society is starting to disintegrate.
Nobody dares to ask, but the ECB board is bracing itself for the upcoming break-up of the euro. The Gefira team explains why France or Italy will leave the euro and we investigate how the ECB is preparing for the looming euro collapse.
