What do Syria and Ukraine have in common? What do these two countries, separated from one another by thousands of miles, characterized by a different culture and religion, share? Oh yes, they share the same fate, albeit not played out concurrently.
Syria. We have all been notified of the collapse of the “Assad regime”. How did that come about? In a simple way. The Russian support for President Assad was withdrawn, leaving the rebellious forces free to act and that was it. The state of Syria fell like a house of cards.
Ukraine. We will soon be notified of the collapse of the “Zelensky government”. How will it come about? In a simple way. The American support for President Zelensky will be withdrawn, leaving the Russian forces free to act and that will be it. The state of Ukraine will fall like a house of cards.
Sure enough, the details differ. It is a bunch of states – Israel, Turkey, the United States – that were Syria’s enemies, it is one state – Russia – that is Ukraine’s enemy. The territories captured by Turkey and Israel in Syria may be held by the respective countries for good or temporarily; the territories captured by Russia in Ukraine are captured for good. Syria’s president has been and is going to be referred to as dictator by the Western media and politicians; Ukraine’s president, however, has been and is going to be called a heroic fighter for freedom and democracy by the same media.
There are also phenomena that are similar. Syria after Assad is going to remain a destabilized country, just like Libya, just like Iraq, just like Afghanistan. Ukraine after Zelensky, too, is going to be a destabilized country, though surely in a different way due to its different ethnic composition and its heritage. Syria has lost a huge number of its citizens, and so has Ukraine. Neither Syrians, nor Ukrainians are going to go back to their countries: especially those Syrians and those Ukrainians who have settled in Europe.
Assad’s fall has been heralded as the West’s victory, Russia’s defeat. Zelensky’s fall will be heralded as Russia’s victory and the West’s debacle. Except that it won’t. The Western media and politicians will continue their mantra of “Putin has lost this war.”
Why will Ukraine follow in Syria’s footsteps? Why has Syria preceded Ukraine? Because both states have been created artificially. Upon the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire after the First World War a few million Arabs inhabiting the Middle East have been made to become Syrians while other millions of Arabs have been made to become Jordanians or Lebanese. Upon the disintegration of the Russian Empire after the First World War a few million Russians have been made to become Ukrainians, while other few million have been made to become Belorussians. During their supposedly independent existence both Syria and Ukraine have been playthings at the hands of their neighbours and the world’s hegemons.
Ah, one more peculiar difference. Terrorist organizations fought against Assad, while other terrorist organizations fought for Zelensky. That is to say, whether those organizations are terrorist depends a lot on who labels them terrorist. Terrorists who fight for us are no terrorists, as the well-known diplomatic maxim says. Similarly, presidents who are with us are democratic leaders who manage democratic governments; presidents who are against us are – yes! yes! – dictators and their governments are regimes. Simple, is it not?
So long as Russians were capable of supporting Assad that long he could be the country’s president. The moment that support was withdrawn, he fled to Moscow. So long as Americans are capable of supporting Zelensky that long he will be the country’s president. The moment that support is withdrawn, he will flee to somewhere in the West. Or will be killed. No, he will be involved in an accident. He will be killed in that he will be involved in an accident. Or maybe there will be an attempt at poisoning him, which he will miraculously survive to eventually die under mysterious circumstances.
Two countries, two chessboards. The big players will eventually shake hands over those chessboards, establishing a new pecking order between them. For a time being, that is. The two chessboards will be left with but few playing pieces, with most of the others being destroyed or dispelled in the world. The two chessboards – Syria and Ukraine – are just two entities in a larger set of chessboards: Yugoslavia, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, you name it. The big players will find new chessboards to settle their accounts. New rogue states will appear, a new mantra of “this or that dictator must go” will be heard. It might be Iran, it might be Turkey; it might be Belarus, it might be Georgia. There are many chessboards around the globe with which the big players can settle their accounts.
Ukraine’s President Zelensky seems to be glad of the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. Has president Zelensky given it a thought? If he is clever enough, he ought to see in President Bashar al-Assad himself, he ought to see in President Bashar al-Assad’s fate his own fate. If he is clever enough and sufficiently judicious, he ought to be making arrangements for a quick plane flight from Kiev to Washington, or Paris, or London. With the whole family. It is not that President Zelensky needs to fear Russians: he needs to fear Ukrainians. He does not need to fear the dead – though, who knows? they may come to haunt him in his night dreams – but he needs to fear the living. Those with amputated limbs, those whose sons and brothers, husbands and fathers have fallen. President Zelensky needs to fear the millions of relatives of those who have lost their lives and their health in order that the West might spite Putin and Russia, in order that Ukraine might lose a quarter of its territory, in order that he might travel the world over away from, far away from, the hostilities on the ground.
