China is in the midst of a power supply crisis that has turned critical in recent days – threatening entire power grids and prompting analysts to slash economic growth forecasts for the year. Source SCMP
Financial
With winter on the way for much of the world and natural gas prices at record levels, economies across the globe are competing for a finite supply of coal. At the center of the scramble is China, where stockpiles are low and demand is at an all-time high. Source Al Jazeera
Berliners cast their referendum votes on whether to nationalize thousands of housing units owned by real estate giants. After counting all votes, over 56% voted in favor of the measure.Source DW
Britain, which faces soaring natural gas prices, has been forced to run coal-fired power stations in order to secure energy supplies, electricity generation company Drax said on Thursday. Source France24
Two more energy firms have ceased trading as rocketing wholesale gas and electricity prices push the majority of the UK’s smaller energy suppliers to the brink. Avro Energy and energy firm Green have both collapsed today putting hundreds of thousands of customers into limbo. Ofgem has reassured people affected that their energy supplies will continue. Source Wales Online
Russian gas giant Gazprom has turned down an option to maximize gas shipments to Europe as the continent faces a looming energy crisis amid surging natural gas prices. Gazprom did not book any of the additional capacity available in transit pipelines running through Ukraine in auctions for October, the state-run Interfax news agency reported Monday. The company also reserved only a third of the space it was offered on the Yamal gas pipeline, which goes through Poland. Source The Moscow Times
At least four of the smaller UK energy companies are expected to go bust next week amid soaring wholesale gas prices. Industry sources have told the BBC that four firms have asked larger players to bid to take over the supply to one million customers. Source BBC
So who would dare to go to war with China? It would be a shot in the West’s own knee. War with China would mean the introduction of numerous sanctions/lockdowns and, as a result:
① enormous inflation in the West (caused by shortages of goods);
② enormous unemployment in China (caused by the closure of many factories due to a lack of orders from the West);
③ an enormous strengthening of Russia and Iran through direct, massive arms supplies from China;
④ Emergence of new frontlines (possibly: Strait of Hormuz, the Baltic States, Taiwan, North Korea, islands in the South China Sea);
⑤ Conversion of the world economies to war production;
⑥ Social unrest;
⑦ Rise of the South American countries that would serve as “reservoirs”.
Who would dare? Perhaps Trump, as it is reported that he is keen on war against Iran. Beijing, however, proudly sides with the Persians and condemns Israel’s latest attacks. And rightly so, as they violate international rules. This could easily lead to a clash between the world powers.
Perhaps Trump wants war to cause hyperinflation, to weaken the dollar, to cure American companies of the sin of outsourcing and to bring all production back to America? Yes, and Europe would also become totally weak this way… Two birds with one stone. And he probably wouldn’t care that thousands of young Americans would die in the process, just as Zelenskyy and Putin don’t care that their youth are dying senselessly.
When it comes to the war in Ukraine, Europe – the European Union along with the United Kingdom – is in a fight mode while the United States is not. Europe is still flaunting its so-called human and democratic values, while the United States has just reversed the course of wokeism and genderism. European leaders have shut themselves off from the outside world in their echo chambers and surround themselves with like-minded bellicose individuals, while the United States is trying to find a balance in its foreign policy. Europe is still objectifying Ukraine – the country and the nation are only viewed as a battering ram against Russia, Europe’s topmost foe, while the new American administration seems to be red-pilled to for-ever wars and has become to deal with reality on the ground as it is. European and American ways have ceased to align.
Europe has a history of aggressiveness directed towards the east, which was encapsulated by the notorious German political catchphrase Drang nach Osten or Drive to the East. Indeed, wars between the western and eastern parts of the Old Continent were invariably initiated by its western part. These were the military raids of the Teutonic Knights, these were the invasions launched by Sweden or France, by imperial Germany and the Third Reich. For all that historical record, it is Russia that is credited with aggressive intentions. Why, Europeans, including those with university degrees, are not familiar even cursorily with their own past. Schools are not there for the Europeans to let knowledge sink in; schools are for mind shaping.
Europe obsessed with Russia and Putin appears to be overlooking the worldly political and economic trends. The developing countries are slowly but steadfastly gaining economic and – what follows – political momentum. The United States has broken with globalism and is focusing on its own affairs, recognizing that its role as a global hegemon has come to an end. Not that Washington has given up on exerting leverage here and there in the world: the action to control the Panama Canal or the plans of taking control over Greenland show that the American empire is alive and kicking. Yet, the United States needs to reckon with powerful rivals and concede them some political room on the world stage. It is not only Russia, it is China as well.
Europe has let itself be pushed out of Africa, Europe has developed a guilt complex towards Africans for all the failures of the latter and Europe embarked upon letting itself be colonized. The vacuum created on the Dark Continent has attracted the attention of the Middle Kingdom. China is taking Africa over from degenerating Europe. China’s population is numerically almost a perfect match to that of Africa, while Europe’s dwindling indigenous population is on a slippery road to nothingness. While European influence in Africa is often denounced in European capitals as neo-colonialism, China’s take on its presence on the Dark Continent is framed by Beijing as Going Global. Europe, riddled with guilt and shame, cannot stand up to the Middle Kingdom with the latter’s political ambition. Europe has become irrelevant, while China is a rising star. Also on the Dark Continent.
Gefira Financial Bulletin #93 is available now
- Russia – a stumbling block of nations
- Greenland
- Europe out, China in
- The Mar-a-Lago plan
Recently, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk quoted the International Institute for Strategic Studies according to which Europe together with Ukraine has a strength of 2.6 million troops, the United States has 1.3 million troops, while China – 2 million and Russia barely 1.1 million. Then the Polish prime minister pathetically suggested that Russia should be crushed under such a force and should fear the West. Wow!
You know, Donald Tusk was a student of history. He must have been absent-minded during the lectures or he may have forgotten every bit of what he may have learnt. When throughout the history of humankind has it ever been a rule that sheer numbers always prevail in conflicts? An example from European history.
The Kingdom of Prussia comprised basically two relatively small territories, one around Berlin and on both sides of the Oder estuary, and the other on the Baltic Sea (present-day north-eastern Poland plus the Kaliningrad province that since World War Two belongs to Russia). These two territories were even not connected by land: they were flat, with no resources, and scarcely populated This small Kingdom of Prussia threw down the gauntlet to a huge Habsburg Monarchy (yesterday’s European Union in the centre of the Old Continent, made up of present-day Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, and a huge part of Romania) and won the wars of 1740-42 and 1744-45, tearing away from the Habsburg monarchy Silesia (today’s south-western Poland). In an attempt to regain the lost province, yesterday’s European Union, i.e. the Habsburg Empire, allied itself with Russia and France – two superpowers of that day – and again went to war against the little Kingdom of Prussia – the Seven Years’ War of 1756-63 – and… lost it a third time. The numerical advantage of the anti-Prussian coalition was enormous (the Habsburg Monarchy, France and Russia along with Saxony, not to mention many other German principalities) and yet it turned out the be of no use. Towards the end of that costly and protracted war Russia decided to withdraw its troops (just like today the United States is disengaging from the crusade in Ukraine), and since Russia left the battlefield, the alliance was soon dissolved.
Another example, an example from today, an example that everybody, not even one interested in politics, is aware of. The tiny state of Israel that is located in the sea of – nay – in the ocean of the hostile Arab, Islamic world. The state of Israel stands its ground, and has stood its ground since its inception. True, it has been supported by the United States, but even then: Israel is a tiny country surrounded by usually unfriendly, much more densely populated Arab states. Egypt alone has some 100 million inhabitants, while Israel merely 10 million of which 2 million are Arabs!
That’s the numerical part of the problem. The Polish prime minister did not take into consideration other factors, especially the factor of motivation. Why should the Portuguese or the Norwegians, the Greeks or the Swiss go to war with Russia over Ukraine? Why should they sacrifice anything for this war? Why should they compromise the quality of their life because of Ukraine of which they know next to nothing, of which the older generations did not even learn at school as a separate state because thirty years ago there was no Ukraine on the political map of Europe? Even if forced, Portuguese, Greek or Norwegian soldiers are not likely to really fight somewhere in the East, somewhere in Ukraine. Do you remember the Italian, Hungarian and Romanian soldiers that fought hand in hand with Germans on the eastern front during World War Two? They were usually more of a burden rather than real aid. Was it not the same with Napoleon’s incursion into Russia? The French emperor led troops from almost all of Europe. His numerical advantage was more than obvious. How did he fare?
What do numbers mean? Numbers only have their abstract value in abstract mathematical considerations. It is only in maths that every one and every other one is always the same two. In real life these two soldiers are by no means the same as those two soldiers, the military value of these two tanks and their crews is not comparable to the military value of those two tanks and their crews, and so on, and so forth. There are so many factors that matter that it is almost impossible to take them all into account. Numbers only win when other major factors are more or less comparable. Numbers in themselves are just stats, abstract metrics. Europe and the United States – to quote again Donald Tusk or the International Institute for Strategic Studies – have altogether 3.9 million of professional troops, Russia – 1.1: a proportion of roughly 4 to 1. What is reality? Reality demonstrates that Russia is holding a quarter of Ukrainian territory while Europe is flexing its flaccid muscles and issuing threatening statements – now from Paris, now from London – and becomes ever more livid with its helpless – childlike – hatred of Russia.
The news was a bombshell! President Donald Trump called President Vladimir Putin! Worse, President Donald Trump and the closest men in his administration have made overtures to negotiations with Russia in that Ukraine will not be a member of NATO nor of the European Union, nor regain its territories (US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth’s speech in Brussels, Feb 12, 2025). Still worse, it looks like the negotiations between the United States and the Russian Federation might take place without the European Union! That they will take place without Ukraine goes without saying. Three years of muscle flexing on the part of the European Union, three years of warmongering, three years of sanctions, three years of the rabidly anti-Russian agitprop, three years of lavishly honouring President Zelensky, three years of this and that have been thrown out the window, have gone into the gutter, have gone down the drain.
Take a look at the livid outraged infuriated hopping-mad wrinkled formal manageresses of the Union: Ursula von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas; take a look at that bellicose boss of NATO: Mark Rutte! They all somehow did not expect it, and yet they did, once Donald Trump had won the election. They know not what to do now. They are likely – as said above – to be left out of the equation, chased away from the negotiating table. As the saying goes, those who are not sitting at the negotiating table are lying on it. Ukraine certainly will be lying on the table and be operated on. An organ or two for Russia, an organ or two for the United States. An organ may be territory, natural resources, political control, whatever. Certainly, Ukrainians will have no say. And most likely Europeans won’t have a say either!
SecDef Pete Hegseth
Couldn’t it all have been foreseen right at the start, three years back? Does one need to be an experienced politician to figure out the military and economic disproportion of the players involved in the hostilities? One must have been fed on egregious glaring lies to have believed that Russia was about to collapse with the first wave of sanctions while confronting gallant Ukrainian soldiers! One must have been on a dope to have imagined that Ukrainians would cross the border and march into Russian territory! One really must have been out of his senses to have assumed such a scenario!
Three years, allegedly half a million killed in action, hundreds of thousands maimed, tens of thousands missing, a country experiencing wide-spread damage, devastated families, decimated generations of young men… What has been achieved? How can the Western leaders soothe their conscience? You know how: they have no troubled conscience. They are like Madeleine Albright (just look at her kind face) who justified the death of half a million of raqi children; they are like Zbigniew Brzezinski, for whom the world was a chess board and nations – consequently – chess pieces; they are like Henry Kissinger, who left a legacy of bombs and chaos in Cambodia.
Chancellor Scholz says Germany is in danger because of the talks between President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin! In danger? What does he mean? Is Russia going to march across Poland and assault Germany? Why? Because Russia is desperate to take care of the millions of the Third Worlders and thousands of sexual perverts between the Oder and the Rhine? My oh my!
What do Syria and Ukraine have in common? What do these two countries, separated from one another by thousands of miles, characterized by a different culture and religion, share? Oh yes, they share the same fate, albeit not played out concurrently.
Syria. We have all been notified of the collapse of the “Assad regime”. How did that come about? In a simple way. The Russian support for President Assad was withdrawn, leaving the rebellious forces free to act and that was it. The state of Syria fell like a house of cards.
Ukraine. We will soon be notified of the collapse of the “Zelensky government”. How will it come about? In a simple way. The American support for President Zelensky will be withdrawn, leaving the Russian forces free to act and that will be it. The state of Ukraine will fall like a house of cards.
Sure enough, the details differ. It is a bunch of states – Israel, Turkey, the United States – that were Syria’s enemies, it is one state – Russia – that is Ukraine’s enemy. The territories captured by Turkey and Israel in Syria may be held by the respective countries for good or temporarily; the territories captured by Russia in Ukraine are captured for good. Syria’s president has been and is going to be referred to as dictator by the Western media and politicians; Ukraine’s president, however, has been and is going to be called a heroic fighter for freedom and democracy by the same media.
There are also phenomena that are similar. Syria after Assad is going to remain a destabilized country, just like Libya, just like Iraq, just like Afghanistan. Ukraine after Zelensky, too, is going to be a destabilized country, though surely in a different way due to its different ethnic composition and its heritage. Syria has lost a huge number of its citizens, and so has Ukraine. Neither Syrians, nor Ukrainians are going to go back to their countries: especially those Syrians and those Ukrainians who have settled in Europe.
Assad’s fall has been heralded as the West’s victory, Russia’s defeat. Zelensky’s fall will be heralded as Russia’s victory and the West’s debacle. Except that it won’t. The Western media and politicians will continue their mantra of “Putin has lost this war.”
Why will Ukraine follow in Syria’s footsteps? Why has Syria preceded Ukraine? Because both states have been created artificially. Upon the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire after the First World War a few million Arabs inhabiting the Middle East have been made to become Syrians while other millions of Arabs have been made to become Jordanians or Lebanese. Upon the disintegration of the Russian Empire after the First World War a few million Russians have been made to become Ukrainians, while other few million have been made to become Belorussians. During their supposedly independent existence both Syria and Ukraine have been playthings at the hands of their neighbours and the world’s hegemons.
Ah, one more peculiar difference. Terrorist organizations fought against Assad, while other terrorist organizations fought for Zelensky. That is to say, whether those organizations are terrorist depends a lot on who labels them terrorist. Terrorists who fight for us are no terrorists, as the well-known diplomatic maxim says. Similarly, presidents who are with us are democratic leaders who manage democratic governments; presidents who are against us are – yes! yes! – dictators and their governments are regimes. Simple, is it not?
So long as Russians were capable of supporting Assad that long he could be the country’s president. The moment that support was withdrawn, he fled to Moscow. So long as Americans are capable of supporting Zelensky that long he will be the country’s president. The moment that support is withdrawn, he will flee to somewhere in the West. Or will be killed. No, he will be involved in an accident. He will be killed in that he will be involved in an accident. Or maybe there will be an attempt at poisoning him, which he will miraculously survive to eventually die under mysterious circumstances.
Two countries, two chessboards. The big players will eventually shake hands over those chessboards, establishing a new pecking order between them. For a time being, that is. The two chessboards will be left with but few playing pieces, with most of the others being destroyed or dispelled in the world. The two chessboards – Syria and Ukraine – are just two entities in a larger set of chessboards: Yugoslavia, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, you name it. The big players will find new chessboards to settle their accounts. New rogue states will appear, a new mantra of “this or that dictator must go” will be heard. It might be Iran, it might be Turkey; it might be Belarus, it might be Georgia. There are many chessboards around the globe with which the big players can settle their accounts.
Ukraine’s President Zelensky seems to be glad of the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. Has president Zelensky given it a thought? If he is clever enough, he ought to see in President Bashar al-Assad himself, he ought to see in President Bashar al-Assad’s fate his own fate. If he is clever enough and sufficiently judicious, he ought to be making arrangements for a quick plane flight from Kiev to Washington, or Paris, or London. With the whole family. It is not that President Zelensky needs to fear Russians: he needs to fear Ukrainians. He does not need to fear the dead – though, who knows? they may come to haunt him in his night dreams – but he needs to fear the living. Those with amputated limbs, those whose sons and brothers, husbands and fathers have fallen. President Zelensky needs to fear the millions of relatives of those who have lost their lives and their health in order that the West might spite Putin and Russia, in order that Ukraine might lose a quarter of its territory, in order that he might travel the world over away from, far away from, the hostilities on the ground.
An avalanche of events within a couple of days. [1] an attempt that resembled a Kiev-like coup d’état in Tbilisi, Georgia; [2] the results of the presidential election in Romania recognized as invalid; [3] Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad toppled. What’s coming next?
The unrest in Tbilisi, Georgia, has been compounded by Ukraine and the Baltic States, which imposed sanctions on Georgia! Yes, Ukraine, which is supposedly struggling hard for survival, and the three teeny-weeny Baltic States imposed sanction on Georgia, on the ruling Georgian Georgian Dream party, which won the parliamentary election. The Maidan in Tbilisi or the colour revolution – whichever name we assign to the event – is being played out just as it was played out in Belgrade or Kiev or Minsk or, or, or. The West’s Red Guards* – especially the youth – have taken to the streets, using all the tricks that have already been utilized in other places, at other times. European Union flags (the fingerprints of the powers behind) are waved, women approach the police troops with flowers, children participate, interviews are conducted on the spot during which people shed tears to show how oppressed they have been, posters are shown to the cameras with legend demanding the resignation of the current government and complaining about violence, lack of democracy, and lack of human rights. Everything is copied from other places, from other times.
The presidential election in Romania has been annulled by Romania’s supreme court – although a day earlier the same court announced the validity of the voting process and voting results – because voters might have been misled by misinformation about the candidates provided to them by… TikTok. No need to add that the results have been annulled for this simple reason that it was Calin Georgescu who won the majority of votes, and Calin Georgescu appears to be a Romanian Viktor Orbán, which is precisely something that the European Union cannot come to terms with. Brussels has enough trouble with the Hungarian Orbán, and Slovakia’s Robert Fico. The annulment and the resultant repeat of the election is something that the European Union is used to applying. This practice first began with referendums held in particular countries about their accession to the European Moloch. If a referendum revealed that the majority of the voters were against having their country joined to the EU, the referendum was repeated, until the desired result was obtained. Romanians must understand that they need to elect an EU-backed candidate or else they will prove that they do not know what democracy is all about and will be forced to elect again, and again, and again.
The intensification of the civil war in Syria has within the last two weeks gained momentum and eventually brought about the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad, habitually referred to by the Western media as a dictator. The president is rumoured to have fled to Russia. Damascus, Syria’s capital, has been taken over by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, which, depending on your political stance, may be categorized as a rebel, terrorist or opposition organization. The West has eventually hunted Bashar al-Assad down, a target that has been pursued for years. Israeli troops are also reported to have entered southern Syria. Was the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad government occasioned by the fact that its major supporter – Russia – has been engaged in Ukraine? Or maybe the United States has struck a secret deal with Russia according to which Moscow will give up on Syria, while Washington will give up on Ukraine?
Meanwhile the cooperation between Moscow and Minsk is tightening to the effect that the famed Oreshnik** missile launch-pads will be deployed to Belarus.
All of which suggests the following development of events:
[1] Syria is likely to become another Libya or another Iraq in that it is going to face a long period of disability marked by warring factions and a lack of a central government. The country might be occupied partly by Turkey, partly by Israel.
[2] Iran may be next on the kill list. That’s the last state in the Middle East that is regarded by Israel – and hence by the United States – as an enemy.
[3] The next Maidan will be attempted in Minsk, Belarus, because Alexandr Lukashenko, Belorussian president, is again a candidate in the presidential election that is scheduled for January 26, 2025. Minsk has already survived such a Maidan, so the Belorussian authorities will be well prepared to crush another one.
[4] Any possible elections in Hungary may be declared null and void if Viktor Orbán wins again, failing which the Hungarian prime minister may as well reckon with an assassination (see the Robert Fico case in Slovakia).
[5] The European Union is evidently turning into an aggressive and dictatorial political bloc that will tolerate no swerving from the course charted in Brussels. Disobedient governments will experience Maidans, or have their elections annulled, or face sanctions, or have their leaders assassinated. Taking into account that it is Germany that leads the European Union, one might say that a Fourth Reich is in the making.
[6] Belarus and Georgia, two countries that have historically been either part of Russia (Belarus), or united with Russia by means of a political union (Georgia), in the face of all the political pressure, economic sanctions and enormous interference from the West, might be pushed into Moscow’s embrace. The same conclusion might be drawn by the other Caucasian states as well as the states of Central Asia. They all might be pushed into Moscow’s embrace . The resultant union might be like that between Russia and Belarus. In other words the Russian Empire is about to be re-created (certainly not the Soviet Union, as this possible political structure is not going to indulge in communist ideas).
Who knows? It might be that in a few years’ time history will turn full circle with the re-birth of the Russian Empire. A rump Ukraine will probably become a buffer-zone state, as Moscow may not be willing to incorporate Ukraine’s westernmost regions inhabited by rabidly anti-Russian Ukrainians, and the West will not be strong enough to draw this westernmost part into its sphere of interests.
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*Red Guards – these were the shock troops, made up of predominantly of young people, who – as the Communist Party’s battering ram – carried out the Cultural Revolution in Maoist China, suppressing opposition from conservative and prudent sections of Chinese society.
**Oreshnik – that hypersonic missile that recently hit Yuzhmash, a military plant in Ukraine. Though it was not fitted with either a nuclear or any other explosive device, the damage it caused is comparable to that caused by an A-bomb.
When we think about the Crimean War of 1853-1856, we tend to think about fights that took place in the Crimean peninsula. The very name suggests it. It was the time when the Western powers – predominantly England and France, supported by Turkey and the Kingdom of Sardinia – made an attempt at weakening Russia. The hostilities, however, were not confined to the said peninsula. Russia’s enemies attempted landing troops, shelling ports and cities also along the Russian coastline of the Baltic and White Seas as well as in the Far East and the Caucasus.
Much the same happened when after the October Revolution of 1917 the Western powers tried to crush nascent Soviet Russia: they sent troops to intervene from the north (the Baltic Sea), from the south (the Black Sea) and in the Far East.
When today the West is waging a proxy war against Russia, it is, too, trying to engage Moscow in as many places as it is possible. Hence the Kremlin does not pay attention merely to Ukraine: it needs to be on guard in many other places simultaneously. Recently we have informed our readers about the riots in Georgia, where the Kiev-Maidan scenario is playing out a second time, and Georgia is being primed to become another Ukraine i.e. a state that will act aggressively towards Russia. so, willy-nilly, Moscow needs to divert some of Russia’s resources and troops to the Caucasus.
As if that were not enough, it is also in recent days that the long-term conflict in Syria has been reinvigorated, with the Turkish troops capturing Aleppo, and with the ISIS units making assaults here and there. Why in Syria? Because Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has been supported by Russia (and Iran), because Russians have saved him from being toppled by the United States, because Russians are militarily present in Syria. Under such circumstances, the Kremlin needs to attend to Ukraine, to Georgia, and Syria simultaneously; Russia must also have reserves and remain on its guard as to where else a new conflict is likely to erupt.
True, the interests of particular nations in the region are opposed and of long historical standing. The Middle East – once a part of the Ottoman Empire – emerged as a mosaic of mainly Arab states at the end of World War One. The French and the British played major roles in creating “nations” and drawing or re-drawing state borders. The famed Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916 was all about weakening Turkey and granting control of the Middle East to these two European powers. Yes, Russia was to participate in all this, but since Russia collapsed due to two revolutions and the ensuing civil war, it was the French and the British that remained in the region as dominant powers. Some of the national borders were drawn by means of a ruler (look at a map) with no regard for the ethnic or religious reality.
The Balfour Declaration of 1917 promising the establishment of a home for the Jewish people added yet another piece to the Middle East political puzzle. The tensions in the region were exacerbated by the ever growing influx of the Jewish people to Palestine after World War Two. The ethnic composition of the Middle East underwent an appreciable change. The Arab – Muslim – world stood up to the expansion of the State of Israel, with Israel being eventually backed by the United States, while some of the Arab nations relied on the support of the Soviet Union.
Of the two American allies – Saudi Arabia and Iran – the latter changed its course in 1979 and became hostile to Washington. Saudi Arabia – drawn into the American sphere of interests – has long participated in the notorious worldwide scheme of backing the dollar as the world currency of international exchange in that Saudi Arabia would sell oil exclusively for dollars and made the other OPEC countries do the same. Riyadh remained on hostile terms with Tehran for decades. It is only recently that Riyadh – also due to the political influence of Beijing – re-purposed its foreign policy and buried the war hatched with Tehran.
Today, Turkey is reviving its dreams of recreating the Ottoman Empire. Ankara is active in Syria, but also in Africa (especially in Libya), and is attempting to extend its political leverage to all Turkish peoples in Central Asia, some of which used to be Soviet republics, some of which live in the far east of the Russian Federation.
The Middle East, the Caucasus (Georgia, but also Armenia along with Azerbaijan) and Ukraine: three conflagrations in which Russia is involved, into which Russia is drawn. Three conflagrations that tap into Russia’s resources. The United States might be aiming at either extending Moscow’s activities and thus weakening Russia, or at toppling Bashar al-Assad (Assad must go! as Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton used to repeat), or at both.
These days there are street riots being held in Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital city. Why? Well, because the ruling Dream Party has announced a delay in joining Georgia to the European Union (does it not remind you of something?), and while Georgia’s president – Salome Zourabichvili – has opposed the ruling party and called on the citizens to protest. The protests are supported by the West – the United States and the European Union – which claims that the recent parliamentary election were fraudulent. Georgia, according to the West, ought to hold new elections till Georgians elect the pro-Western parties. Sorry, till Georgians restore democracy and human rights.
Who is Georgia’s President Salome Zourabichvili, the woman who encourages protests against Georgia’s government and parliamentary majority? For all practical purposes she is French: she was born in France, educated in France, held French citizenship and made a career in the French diplomatic corps, acting among others as French ambassador to… Georgia. Ah yes, she was born to Georgian parents, but that’s about everything that makes her Georgian. Also Zbigniew Brzeziński was born to Polish parents, yet he identified as an American. By the way, during her educational career Salome Zourabichvili attended Columbia University, where she studied under the tutelage of… yes, Zbigniew Brzeziński. That’s how much Georgian Salome Zourabichvili is. But back to the street riots.
It somehow happens so that whenever a nation elects parties, prime ministers, presidents or heads of state that are even slightly not pro-Western, such a nation immediately has a revolution on its hands and is immediately beset with accusations of running foul of democracy and violating human rights. At present, that’s the fate of Georgia. More to it. A nation that is sceptical towards the West is automatically accused of acting on Russia’s advice, Russia’s orders, for Russia’s money. At present, that’s precisely what the Georgian Dream Party is accused of. It’s all as simple as that.
Now, the street riots in Tbilisi are comparable to the street riots that took place in Kiev in 2013/2014. Precisely the same forces were at play in Ukraine’s capital as are now in Georgia’s capital. Young, impressionable people yell their demand to join Georgia to the European Union – because, as we all know, there is no salvation outside the European Union – while the police are trying to keep the rioters under control, which they fail, as did their counterparts in Kiev ten years earlier, because their orders are to handle the rioters with kid gloves (such were also the orders that the Ukrainian police took ten years earlier). Soon, if not already, the rioters will start jumping and chanting “Who’s not jumping is a Moskal*(=Russian)!” as their Ukrainian counterparts did in 2013/2014 in Kiev. Because – you did expect it, didn’t you? – the delay that their ruling party announced in joining Georgia to the European Union was dictated by – yes! yes! – Russia. How otherwise? Just as it was in 2013 in the case of Ukraine! Again this Russian serpent suggesting a poisonous apple this time to Georgians who are on the threshold of entering the Garden of Eden known as the European Union. And – who knows? – on the threshold of joining peaceful-loving, defensive NATO. The ongoing war in Ukraine and the hundreds of thousands of victims do not seem to make an impression on Georgian protesters. Evidently, they also want to sit in the trenches, to have their arms and legs torn away by bombs and grenades, to have their cities shelled, to have their cemeteries filled to overflowing with corpses of very young men, draped with Georgian national flags. No price is too high for preserving democracy and human rights, is it?
Before Salome Zourabichvili as president, Georgia had one Mikheil Saakashvili as its head of state. Do you remember him? An adventurer that very few could rival. He took power in Georgia by means of… street riots and one of the many colour revolutions, accusing the acting government of… fraudulent elections. The same script is enacted again and again around the globe, and nobody seems to take notice. As president, Mikheil Saakashvili applied a shock therapy to the nation, purging the police and the administration, raising the military budget, yet lowering social expenditure and what not. He soon ran foul of his nation and prior to the next presidential election, with no hope of being reelected, he fled the country amid accusations of having opposition activists tortured. He landed a job in… Ukraine, of all the places, becoming governor of the Odessa region. And you know what? He wholeheartedly supported the Kiev Maidan of 2013/2014!
It did not last long till Ukraine’s president Petro Poroshenko – surely out of gratitude for his services – deprived him of Ukrainian citizenship. To be the governor of the Odessa region Mikheil Saakashvili needed to acquire Ukrainian citizenship, just as Salome Zourabichvili needed to renounce her French citizenship prior to running for president in Georgia. Such a formality. How often and how easily the pawns at the hands of the managers of the world change their citizenship! How often they hold citizenship of two or three countries simultaneously! But then, that’s probably one of those sacrosanct “hyooman rytes”. Such individuals, those who are our and presidents, renounce or accept citizenship the way you and me change clothes from casual to professional to casual, as the circumstances dictate.
You won’t really be surprised if you learn that – I quote Wikipedia – Mikheil Saakashvili “received an LL.M. from Columbia Law School […] took classes at the School of International and Public Affairs and the George Washington University Law School [and] received a diploma from the [talk of the wolf!] International Institute of Human Rights in Strasbourg, France.” What a talented guy!
We have such talented men and women across Europe and across the world. They have necessarily been raised by the powers that be at Western universities or institutes, where they have been trained in – why – democracy and human rights!
It appears Georgia – just like any country – must have rulers with the Western blessing or else. Or else, Georgia will have unruly youth in Tbilisi’s centre chanting “Кто не скачет, тот москаль!” [He who is not jumping is a Moskal(=Russian)!]. This chanting and this jumping is repeated again and again and again in various cities across the world and… nobody seems to take notice of this pattern. Strange – or perhaps admirable – how the West manages to always have crowds of people in the streets of various capital cities at the West’s beckoning. In Moscow, in Tbilisi, in Kiev, in Minsk, in Warsaw, in Budapest, in Belgrade, in the Arabic states and about anywhere in the world.
The young men are protesting today to have their limbs cut off tomorrow. They are rioting today to have their dead bodies wrapped in Georgian national flags tomorrow. They are following the bidding of the managers of the world today to be slaughtered like lambs tomorrow. They could watch Ukraine and learn from Ukraine’s fate, but learn they will not. When push comes to shove, Salome Zourabichvili will travel the world over in search of support – the way Zelensky has been doing so for the past three years – to eventually find a sanctuary in her native France or elsewhere in the West. When push comes to shove, Georgian youth will desperately pay through the nose to illegally leave the country and thus avoid conscription. Only the lucky will be able to leave, though. The majority will be drafted and will pay the price the way their Ukrainian peers have been paying the price for the last three years. The Georgian youth could learn from the fate of Ukraine but learn they will not. Sadly. They think they fight for democracy and human rights. It never occurs to them that they are tools – disposable tools – replaceable pawns – biodegradable pieces on “The Grand Chessboard” of the Brzezińskis of this world.
*Moskal (москаль) (literally: inhabitant of Moscow and the region) is an ethnic slur for a Russian.
By a guest author.
Is it fundamentally not simple to see?
Prior to the dissolution of the Soviet Union the world was divided into two hostile blocs, and no one knew how that protracted conflict between West and East would resolve: would there be World War Three? Would the Cold War last forever? Would there be a string of proxy wars between the two political systems like that in Korea or that in Vietnam? Lo and behold, the Soviet Union, this terrible monster, this evil empire, laid down its arms, and
- let go of all the central European states i.e. disbanded the Warsaw Pact (the military counterpart of NATO) and the Comecon (the economic counterpart of the EEC, the precursor of the European Union);
- dissolved the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics itself;
- threw away Marxist-Leninist ideology;
- accepted capitalism with everything that this socio-economic system offers;
and while Russia – the Soviet Union’s successor – surrendered herself to the West, her President Boris Yeltsin famously said ‘God save America’ in Congress.
The astounded, mesmerised, astonished world heaved a deep sigh of relief and entertained high hopes about the peaceful future. The German rock band Scorpions encapsulated the atmosphere of that time in their winds of change song, which won enormous popularity across the Old Continent. Almost overnight events occurred that no one thought were possible. A miracle. Communism collapsed with not a single shot being fired. Annus mirabilis, indeed. That was day one. What happened on day two?
On day two all Central European countries flocked to NATO. They flocked to NATO to be protected from… well, from whom? There was no Soviet Union, there was no communist colossus, there was no hostile state in the east. European Russia had shrunk to the territorial size it had during the reign of Peter I three centuries earlier, its industry was in shatters, it had huge demographic problems, it was torn by factional feuds while the state property was appropriated by individuals, not infrequently of alien ethnicity, and its armed forces were weak and demoralised. So, what protection did the central European countries need? Still, they became NATO members.
As if that was not enough, on day two the CIA began supporting Chechen rebels and operating in the Caucasus, to name just a few areas, while NATO began deploying missiles to Poland and Romania with the ridiculous story that they were there to protect central Europe against… Iranian attacks! I rubbed my eyes and did not believe my ears when I heard that justification for the deployment of missiles as it was provided to us via the many media. Stupid, isn’t it? They should have come up with a better pretext, but there you have it.
Consider this historical event this way. A wild-west little settlement. The Russki posse on one side, the Yankee posse on the other. The gunslingers of both are holding their guns levelled at their opponents. The moment lasts all eternity until the Russki posse decides to give up. For whatever reason – psychological pressure, bad weather, the calculation of their chances of (not) prevailing in the shoot-out, whatever – the Russki posse lowers their hands, drops their guns, unbuckles their belts and throws them away. The Yankee posse emerges victorious. What do you think the Russki posse expects in return? Yes, you guessed it right. They expect a similar gesture. Right? But no. The Yankee posse not only does not lower their guns; no, they take over the members of the Russki posse (Poles, Czechs, Hungarians, Romanians etc.) and even take over Russki’s brother known as Ukraine and they begin to pit them all against the Russki. That’s what it all was about.
As far as I can search my memory, in between 1991 and 2022 I never heard or read in the media anything even slightly positive about Russia and things Russian. Anything to do with Russia was described as bad, ugly, repulsive, stupid, ridiculous, backward – you name it. Not one single positive piece of information about that country or its nation. Not one. I still remember the item of news just prior to the opening of the Winter Olympic Games in Sochi that the toilets in hotels for the athletes were constructed in such a way as to have two toilet bowls per cabin i.e. as to force people to – sorry for the word – defecate side by side without an intervening partition wall. And you know what? My compatriots believed in it. Eagerly.
My compatriots – just as the Western intellectuals – defended Khodorkovsky in his conflict with President Putin because Khodorkovsky was Putin’s enemy, and the enemy of our enemy is our friend. Never mind that a personage like Khodorkovsky in my own country would have been hated by the majority of people because they would have all figured out – and rightly so — that his enormous fortune was the result of theft, deceit, murder and all other kinds of crime. Still, anybody was regarded as saintly and a hero so long as he opposed Putin. Much the same story repeated itself with my compatriots wholeheartedly supporting Ukrainians, a nation otherwise commonly disliked in my country.
My countrymen – just like Western citizens – were all in favour of Navalny because he was – yes, you guessed it right – anti-Putin. They knew nothing about him: it was enough that he was anti-Putin to view him as a hero. No common sense applied. You remember how Putin tried to poison Navalny? It all bordered on the surreal and the absurd: the otherwise monstrous and effective KGB turned out to be unable to kill one dissident; Navalny’s wife demanded that her unconscious husband be transferred to Germany for treatment; the Russian government docilely agreed, knowing full well that German doctors would find the traces of poison in Navalny’s body; the traces of poison were found, of course!, but still Navalny came back to Russia after his recovery only to be killed a few months later in prison, this time successfully! My oh my, how foolish it all can be and still people accepted all this as pure truth!
Then came day three. The West began penetrating Ukraine and Belarus. The West began to turn those two Russian nations into anti-Russia. Just like that. It was like pitting Canada against the United States or setting New Zealand against Australia. It really is as absurd as that. The three states – Belarus, Ukraine and Russia – stem from one medieval Rus’, just like the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand are historical offshoots of the United Kingdom, and just as people in last mentioned countries generally speak English, so do people in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine generally speak Russian.
No, Ukrainians do not speak Ukrainian for the most part. There are a few millions of them in my country, I happened to work with some of them, and I have my ears wide open. And you know what? Maybe two, maybe three out of every hundred speak Ukrainian or something that is a mix between Ukrainian and Russian. Maybe two, maybe three out of every hundred! Yet, my government pretends not to notice this fact, and the newspapers or a television channel dedicated to the refugees from Ukraine as well as all the inscriptions and legend in shops, means of public transport and offices are printed in Ukrainian. Now to bring my point home: since almost all those Ukrainians speak Russian – Russian is their mother tongue – so what my government is doing is comparable to having a huge refugee population from Ireland and addressing all of them in the Irish language rather than English! That’s how downright foolish it all is, that’s how mendacious the powers that be are, that’s how the managers of the world create ‘reality’.
It’s not merely that Ukrainians speak Russian: Ukrainian children (just as Belorussian children) when they study at school about the beginning of the history of their nation, they learn about the same legends and the same first rules as Russian children do. Again, let me bring my point home: there is almost no such historical overlap between Polish and Czech history. Never mind, Leonid Kuchma, Ukraine’s second president, made a name for himself authoring a book entitled Ukraine is not Russia. The title says it all what the book is about. Now, if Ukraine were not Russia, no one in his right senses would speak about it not being Russia, let alone write a whole book to prove it! Do we have books like France is not Germany or vice versa? This title alone proves how much Ukraine is Russia.
Which is one of the reasons why so many Ukrainians (Russians) fled the country and did not want to defend it. If they were ‘Ukrainians-not-Russians’, they would have defended Not-Russia against Russia, but somehow they don’t want to. I see them in my city everywhere around. Young, sporty men. On the one hand it is morally reprehensible: their mates are dying in the trenches or losing limbs, while these sporty guys are in safety. On the other hand I understand them: they are not going to kill Russian brethren, they are not going to kill people speaking the same language, professing the same Orthodox Christian faith, writing in the same script, sharing the same legends, having close or distant relatives on either side of the border. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, an ethnic Russian, with both his parents and a brother living in Russia, is a glaring and telling illustration of the problem! For reasons known to himself he decided to fight against his own nation: millions of others decided otherwise.
Russians – like all those central and eastern European nations – have a huge inferiority complex towards the West. Go open Leo Tolstoy’s war and peace in the Russian original and you will see huge chunks of text written in French. Why? It’s not simply because sometimes the author presents the French characters speaking in their language; it is also and predominantly because Russian upper classes would speak French now and again, because Russians (and Poles, and Romanians, and, and, and) were enamoured of France and anything French; today they love English and anything having to do with the Anglosphere. Why am I saying this? I’m saying this to show that the West knowing about this inferiority complex could have controlled Russia ad infinitum if only the control were measured, moderate and mild; if only the West were not throwing its weight about as it has, as it is, as it invariably will. Sadly, the West threw its weight around and we are facing the sad result.
Hey, even a Navalny at the helm of the Russian state would have reacted to Ukraine being drawn into NATO in a way similar to what Putin did! How can you fail to see it? A putsch in Kiev, an attempted putsch in Minsk, the Baltic states as NATO members, missiles in Poland and Romania, constant political turmoil in the Caucasus – which Russian leader would remain passive? I didn’t want to repeat this banal comparison that many others keep using, but I feel compelled to do so: what would Washington do if Russia or China were about to draw Mexico and Canada to a military pact hostile to the United States? What would the Hill do if a Russian Nuland or a Chinese Pyatt were openly instigating putschists in Ottawa or Mexico City? We know what Washington would do. Why then are we so surprised at what Moscow has done? Quite apart from whether you like Putin or not, quite apart from whether you like Russia or not: apply just plain thinking like in a game of chess. Beijing must have applied such thinking, and must have been watching what had been happening to the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation, and they must have drawn the only right inference: surely, we might let go of Tibetans, Uyghurs and Mongols – why not? these are alien nations – but we can’t: the moment we let them go, they will flock to a NATO or an AUKUS, and become springboards for Western penetration and aggression. (Notice in passing the geopolitical similarity of the crescent made up of the Baltic States, Belarus and Ukraine west of Russia and that made up of Mongols, Uyghurs and Tibetans west of China.)
Notice also this hubris: Americans say that losing control over Taiwan, which is located thousands of miles across the Pacific away from the United States, threatens their national security; now Russians must not say that having Ukraine, which is located next door, controlled by Americans threatens their national security. Gee… how biased one needs to be to say that!?
When you listen to Western leaders you cannot get rid of the impression that they are obsessed with Putin. Putin, Putin, Putin is the word that they love to hate. I’m sure they have Putin-dolls which they punch with voodoo pins. I think they would readily bless Russia with the whole of Ukraine if only in return they could lay their hands on Putin to court-martial him, to humiliate him, and to hang him. Putin, Putin, Putin – a sickly obsession. The Western leaders simply indulge in the Orwellian two minutes of hate of Putin, who in their eyes is second only to Hitler. Before Putin there were a few others, with one especially imprinted on my memory: Serbia’s President Slobodan Milošević. He, too, was an incarnation of all evil, while Serbs – and only Serbs – were to blame for anything and everything. Saintly Albanians and Bosnians, not so saintly Croats, and those devils – Serbs! At that time I did not need to delve into the Balkan conflict very much to realise one thing: Milošević must have thrown a monkey wrench in the works of the powers that be. This glaring, enormous bias against little Serbia was enough to make me wonder.
So, how would the managers on the Potomac react to Mexico or Canada being drawn into a military bloc hostile to the United States? No Russian attentive to the world of politics and ideologies fails to notice that the West is hostile to Russia. What of the RAND think-tank publications, what of others – they make no bones about it: Ruthenia delenda est. These aims are declared openly with conferences taking par during which Russia’s territory is being divided into over twenty political entities with none – not a single one – of them bearing the name Russia. don’t Russians know about it? Of course they do! Such conferences are not kept secret, after all. so they react accordingly. “We are not interested in a world without Russia,” said the Russian president. “We are not interested in a world without Poland, France, Hungary, the United States…” would say any patriotic president, would he not? So what’s so strange about it? If they want to subjugate you, to enslave you, to annihilate you, you put up a fight.
Or maybe you throw a farewell party?
At the close of the BRICS summit, held this year, October 22-24, in Kazan, Russia, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, as is his habit, took questions from journalists. One of them was asked by a BBC correspondent. The BBC journalist asked the Russian leader whether he did not see a discrepancy between what Russia aims at – which is its own and international security and stability and justice – and what Russia reaps as a result of its policies – which is having Ukrainian drones over its own territory or having Russian towns shelled by Ukrainian artillery. The same journalist also asked whether Vladimir Putin could confirm that the British secret services report that the Kremlin was behind social unrest in the United Kingdom. Putin’s reply was manifold and exhaustive:
① Yes, Russia was not shelled prior to 2022, but before that date Russia had experienced something much worse. Russia was ignored by the West, which attempted to assign to Russia a status of a semi-independent country, a mere provider of resources. Prior to 2022 Russia was doomed to become the West’s dependency. Obviously, under such circumstances the country could not hope to prosper, to develop, to even exist in the long run. The West did not respect Russia’s interests, Russia’s tradition, anything Russian.
② As for justice, continued Russia’s president, the West does all in its power to exploit the world under various pretexts. One of them was the time of the pandemic during which both the United States and the European Union printed billions of their respective currencies with which they bought up huge amounts of foodstuffs and caused worldwide inflation. By flooding the world’s markets with billions of additional dollars and euros, the West was in a position to consume much more than it produced, much more than the rest of the world. The other pretext is of course ecology. The West demands that energy produced on fossil fuels be reduced, which is done in the name of protecting the planet’s climate. That might be a noble purpose, but the point is that African and some Asian countries cannot afford to do away with fossil fuels. To do so, that is, to use modern technologies of energy production, they would need to get credit, which the West only offers with very high interest. For all practical purposes such an approach on the part of the West is turning former African colonies into modern-type colonies. Is that justice that the BBC journalist meant?
Was it just not to respect Russia’s demand that Ukraine not become a NATO member? Was it just on the part of the West to enter into agreements with Russia with the intention of breaking them? Was it just not only to turn Russia’s underbelly – Ukraine – into anti-Russia, but to even build military bases there? Was it just to carry out the coup d’etat in Ukraine? These are glaring acts of injustice and Russia wants to and will change them.
③ As for the claim of the British secret services that Russia allegedly sows discord in British society and is behind street unrest, President Putin said that the social upheaval observed in the West is a direct result of the policies of Western governments which deteriorated economic conditions in their countries due to sanctions and giving up on Russia’s cheap resources. What does Russia have to do with all this, asked the Russian leader.
Interesting points were raised. It may well be that Russians are instigating unrest in Western societies. Does that come as a surprise? One would be flabbergasted if Russia did not try to pay the West in kind. Indeed, the retaliation might be even more painful.
As for the inflation and robbing the globe of its produce and resources by printing money: well, that’s precisely why BRICS countries cooperate and are trying to create a parallel financial system. They have long been victims of financial machinations, and they have long realized the mechanism of being robbed by inflation brought about by foreign powers. If India’s or Brazil’s central banks issue much more money than warranted, the resultant inflation hits them directly, some other countries indirectly, and still some others not at all. If, however. The United States generates far more dollars than is reasonable, the resultant inflation hits the whole globe instantaneously and directly simply because the dollar is the global international currency. Thus, the United States solves its economic problems and burdens the rest of the world in the process. This is, by the way, the point that President Putin has raised many times during his speeches or interviews.
Freedom of speech is not what characterizes humanity, human societies. Only rarely does it surface, for a historically speaking short moment, and then disappears. Why? There’s always a ruling group that holds power, and in order to hold power as long as possible, this groups needs not only to have control over the finances and the law enforcement, but also of the collective mind. It is the mind where seeds of opposition can be sown and where they can sprout, it is the mind that sparks dissent and opposition, it is the mind that leads people to rise up against their rulers. That is the simple reason why genuine freedom of speech, freedom of expression is unthinkable. It is unthinkable because it is impossible, because it sooner or later undermines the authority. That is why freedom of speech must be controlled, channelled or otherwise influenced. The rare moments when freedom of speech resurfaces are those historical times of equilibrium between a descending and an ascending ruling grup.
In the modern world censorship has become a word evoking the worst possible connotations. Dictators resort to censorship, Communists used to apply censorship, but democracies are all about freedom of expression… except that they are not. What do democracies do to simultaneously have censorship and not have it? The solution is easy and as old as human history. Democracies abolish the word censorship without abolishing censorship itself, democracies invent new ways of censoring content without having to resort to the old primitive methods of physically gagging someone’s mouth are imprisoning someone for his words. Democracies invent terms like combating disinformation or misinformation, like protection of the populace against malicious or inciting false news and ideas. That’s it! Censorship in a democracy? God forbid! Yet, you will agree that lies need to be suppressed, will you not?
Humans instinctively want to know the truth and wish to be able to pass correct judgement. In order to know the truth and in order to be able to pass correct judgement, one needs information, one needs varied information coming from different, politically or ideologically opposed sources. Only then can truth be discovered, only then can correct judgement be passed. Hence the need for consulting various information sources. Audiatur et altera pars, as the Romans used to say: let also the other party have a fair hearing. An argument can only be accepted as binding if it has been confronted with opposing arguments and stood its ground, when the argument turned out to (more closely) correspond to reality, to truth. How otherwise can we justly and impartially decide about anything?
How about misinformation or disinformation? If misinformation or disinformation are allowed currency together with information, in the long run the last mentioned will win out. Truth always wins out. As someone said: you can’t deceive all people all the time. Conversely, if information is suppressed under whatever noble pretexts, if you are punished or intimidated or ridiculed for wanting to consult various sources of information, then you may rest assured that those who want to punish, intimidate or ridicule you have been feeding lies to you and are now afraid of you exposing their mendacity. That’s a litmus test available to all of us. You don’t need to be an expert on anything, you only need to be vigilant: if the powers that be don’t want you to look for other sources of information, it clearly means that they want to conceal something and are afraid of being confronted with the truth.
Quid est veritas? was famously asked by Pilate. Yes, what is truth? It may not be easy to discover truth, but one thing is certain: we will never discover it without consulting varied sources of information, without exposing our minds to varied, opposing arguments. At least that much is true. It may be that you do not wish to investigate into various phenomena, events and news: why, it takes a lot of time and effort, and we all have our lives to live, our work to perform, our families to take care of, our vocations to fulfil. Nothing wrong with that. That is why societies delegate few individuals – like journalists or historians – to do the job for the rest of us, to present us with the results of their research efforts. That’s the way it ought to be. The only task that we – the consumers of someone else’s investigative work – are set with is to familiarize ourselves with the investigations done by others with this however sound principle that we must consult opposing sources of information and argumentation. The moment we are denied it, we know that we are being lied to, we know that we are being separated from truth.
There are many, many people who are in favour of global peace. Many of them join organizations and take part in demonstrations in support of international peace. Yet, these are usually empty gestures. It is not enough to yell, Give peace a chance; what needs to be done is to encourage all of us to give the other party to a conflict a fair hearing. Peace disappears when only one argumentation is heard and, consequently followed. Peace disappears when one argumentation deemed as correct makes it impossible for us to understand our opponents. One argumentation turns us into reckless automatons who believe they know reality, who are certain that they know truth while they don’t. If you want to give peace a chance, encourage people to listen to and read what the other party to the conflict has to say; if you want to give peace a chance, declare war on those who suppress selected sources of information and argumentation. Once you learn the argumentation of the other party, your belligerent attitude will almost always be done away with, or at least significantly reduced. Contrarily, if you clam up in your own world of allegedly true ideas, you are going to end up in a vicious conflict of attrition so much so if the other party to the conflict does the same.
It takes intellectual courage to think. Yes, genuine thinking is an act of courage. It is an act of courage to admit a thought that my attitude to an event, my belief in an idea, my evaluation of reality are perhaps not quite correct, are perhaps wrong, or perhaps downright wrong? It is an act of huge courage to admit that perhaps my opponent is not quite wrong, that my opponent is maybe right, maybe… absolutely right. It is probably easier to go to physical war and fight in the trenches than to subdue your own ego and surrender your own cherished beliefs. It was not without a reason that Romans used to say, imperare sibi maximum est imperium, or, to rule yourself is the ultimate form of power. It is really much easier to command troops in the field, or to withstand hardships than to admit that what you hold as sacred truth is not true.
Gefira Financial Bulletin #86 is available now
- The two ways of the Rus’ian world
- Which way, Russia?
- A still more striking analogy
- What way does a political class choose
The American president changed his approach to the stock market in his second term. To the extent that he paid homage to Wall Street during his first term, he recently said in an interview for Fox News that he needs to build a strong country without looking at the stock market. The average American cares because retirement funds are operating on risky assets and many small investors are putting their savings into the stock market instead of keeping their money in low-interest accounts like Germans or most Europeans.
Trump believes that we are now facing a transition that will eventually lead to the return of wealth to America. Incoming Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent later added fuel to the fire when he said during his interview that if anyone thinks Trump will change his policies to stop the stock market decline, they will be disappointed. Bessent is of the opinion that we are currently in a “detox period” – a transition from reliance on public spending to private spending – and any negative market behavior is the legacy of Joe Biden and his policies to stimulate the economy with debt and deficits.
The new managers on the Potomac point out that the indicators are falling and Wall Street appears to be heading for a deeper correction.
What is also falling are the indicators of economic activity: the ISM Manufacturing (PMI) (activity in the US manufacturing sector), while ISM Manufacturing Price (change in the prices manufacturers pay for raw materials and other materials for production) is rising significantly. In the case of the former, it was above 50 points, i.e. above the threshold above which the economy is assumed to be developing, but well below the previous value and also below forecasts. In the case of the latter, it may be a return of higher inflation. In addition, orders in the US manufacturing sector are falling. Unemployment is also rising – Trump’s (or Musk’s) redundancies in the public sector are important here.
As a result, Americans are less willing to spend their money, which means that domestic demand, one of the main drivers of the US economy, is falling. After all, consumer spending accounts for 68% of US GDP!
Can such a situation suit the Trump administration? Paradoxically: Yes!
It is well known that the Fed is maintaining high interest rates (4.5%) in response to persistent inflation of around 3% (target is 2%). High interest rates lead to higher bond yields. Considering that the US needs to refinance a large portion of its debt this year (a good 25% of the total), it would be best for it to do so at the lowest price – i.e. the lowest interest rate on bonds. It is well known that it will not be easy to get the Fed to lower interest rates in the face of increased inflation, so a recession is the best solution. With limited economic growth and demand (see above), inflation may ease considerably and the associated layoffs could prompt the Fed to cut rates to stimulate economic growth.
Hence the tariffs, hence the trade wars – the aim is to bring production back to America, to increase the attractiveness of US products for domestic consumers and… to initiate a new, better period for the American economy after the recession.
Argentina’s President Javier Milei, whom we praised in our article in February this year for his sober views and realpolitik, is showing his clout. Since he has been in office (exactly one year), applying radical measures, he has brought inflation in Argentina sharply down. At the beginning of his term of office, monthly inflation stood at 25.5 %, but it has now fallen to 3.5 %. This success is based on a comprehensive “shock program”, which included far-reaching cuts:
- Reduction in government spending: Milei halved the number of ministries and laid off numerous civil servants. Subsidies, for example for energy and transportation, as well as social benefits such as food subsidies and support for soup kitchens were also cut.
- Monetary and fiscal policy: Argentina’s national currency, the peso, was devalued and a strict austerity program was introduced to reduce the budget deficit. The aim was to achieve a balanced national budget.
- Market-oriented reforms: Milei was guided by ultra-liberal principles, aiming for a drastic reduction in the state apparatus and greater deregulation.
The FED or the ECB take years to get inflation under control, surrounded by crowds of employees, in their towers in Frankfurt (ECB) and Basel (BIS), in their bunkers in Fort Knox, cut off from reality, with the media serving them, convincing the public of the efficiency, caring and reasonableness of central bankers, leading us from one crisis to another. The ECB can do nothing about the deepening recession in Germany. An Argentinean who is going against the tide, a showman whom all the Western media despised a year ago and predicted his quick downfall, has succeeded. Against all odds. Though he is on the side of Ukraine and Israel in their conflicts, though he speaks out against the BRICS, Venezuela, Iran, Russia and China, nonetheless he argues against woke culture and all left-wing ideas for social transformation. Note that he was the first head of state Donald Trump met with (informally) after his election. While Trump is a protectionist who will try to control the US market with administrative measures, Milei is an opponent of liberalism and open markets. After 20 years of socialist government in Argentina, came a man who keeps his promises: he is putting an end to socialism and its failed ideas. First in the economy, then in all areas of life. One man, one word.
Donald Trump wants to increase tariffs on Chinese even by up to 60%, and Democrats will have no choice as to agree to at least some of protectionism planned by the Republicans, or else China will flood the market w its products to the detriment of American domestic industry. In recent years, Western companies and financiers have invested heavily in China only to withdraw from the country at present.
Source: bloomberg.com
In the second quarter of 2024, 15 billion dollars were withdrawn from China. At the same time, exports from the Middle Kingdom are on the rise as companies increase their inventories of Chinese parts, components, etc. so as not to be so affected by potential trade wars. Put simply, we buy what we can from China, but we no longer invest there. This strategy is being pursued by many countries. As a result, freight costs are also rising. Below you will find transport costs from main ports in China (Containerised Freight Index – green line). The situation is similar to that after the end of the pandemic, when inflation began to rage.
Source: tradingeconomics.com
Companies are filling their warehouses and politicians will have a tough nut to crack if inflation rises as a result of trade wars. Already, 59% of Americans believe their country is in recession, despite good economic data.
It is worth remembering that the development of the global economy has been due to free trade for several decades, with the focus on China. This process is now set to be halted and many Americans would even like to see it reversed. This will benefit many European or American companies, but unfortunately it will be at the expense of ordinary citizens, who will pay more for many products. This will fuel inflation and at the same time slow down the economy. Such a situation is known as stagflation. Stagflation is therefore a possible scenario as downside risks dominate the markets, including geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation.
For public finances to be healthy, the economy must be sick
The fiscal conservatism of Germany and the Netherlands clearly limits the growth potential of both countries. The 45% of economists and think tanks active in the AIECE research network consider the current monetary policy in the eurozone to be too restrictive, while only 25% consider it to be correct. In particular, the respondents pointed to the governments of Germany and the Netherlands as those that are only insufficiently supporting their economies. The budget deficit of these two countries will amount to 1.6% of GDP this year for the former and 2% of GDP for the latter. By way of comparison, the figure for Italy is expected to be 4.4% and for France 5.3%. At the same time, many countries are struggling with much higher inflation than those between the Rhine and Oder, for example. It’s like between an anvil and a hammer: either you spend less money on stimulating businesses, leading to a slowdown in the economy and ultimately to recession in the country (Germany, Netherlands), or you increase public debt and the budget deficit through excessive spending, pumping money into the economy, which brings inflation with it (Italy, France).
In 2023, it paid off to pursue an expansionary fiscal policy that avoided a recession. In terms of GDP, higher government spending in Italy and France replaced falling demand, leading to positive growth rates. Countries that cooled their fiscal policy achieved lower growth rates and in some cases paid for this with a recession (see the Netherlands, where GDP fell by 0.3% year-on-year according to the latest figures). Denmark stands out from this pattern, as it achieved growth of almost 2% despite its restrictive fiscal policy. However, it is worth noting that economic growth was boosted by the huge success of Novo Nordisk, the manufacturer of weight loss drugs. Without the pharmaceutical industry, GDP would probably only have grown slightly.
At the same time, it should be noted that the higher inflation in countries with a more expansive fiscal policy is due to the fact that government spending has had to react to cost shocks. For example, countries that are more susceptible to supply shocks due to a higher share of food and energy in the basket of goods have taken more comprehensive and longer-lasting shielding measures for ordinary consumers. However, the reversal of these measures is slow, which is also slowing down the disinflation process.
A new threat to inflation is the escalation of wage demands in the major EU economies. Figures from the European Central Bank (ECB) indicate that growth in collectively agreed wages was stable at just under 3% in the fourth quarter. At the same time, these figures are published with a considerable time lag and show a rather outdated picture that ignores the ongoing negotiations between employers and employees. A completely different picture emerges from the internet search data, where questions about pay rises are reaching historic highs in almost all major EU economies. For example, Dutch internet users are now twice as likely to search for terms relating to pay rises than in 2016-2019, i.e. before the pandemic. In such an environment, rapid disinflation is highly unlikely.
Quelle: Google Trends | Gehaltserhöhung = salary increase, Lohnerhöhung = wage increase, Loonsverhoging = wage increase, Salarisverhoging = salary increase, Augmenter = Increase, Aumento = increase
To summarize, the impact of fiscal policy in 2023 has proven to be quite intuitive and textbook, although it is worth noting that the consequences of some fiscal tools will also show up over a longer period than just a few quarters (e.g. investment, education spending, etc.). Countries that pursued expansionary fiscal policies had to accept higher inflation but managed to avoid recession, while governments that focused on central bank support had to accept recession/weaker growth but achieved lower inflation rates at the end of the year.
The biggest surprise on the financial markets this year is that inflation is continuing. While investors had hoped not long ago for 4 interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, there are now only 3, and with a significant delay. This underpins the thesis we have often expressed that central banks do not fully understand the dynamics of the current inflation. The indicators suggest that parts of the economy, such as real estate and the automotive sector, are struggling with high interest rates, while other sectors, such as the defense industry, the semiconductor industry, the AI industry and the manufacture of anti-obesity drugs, are experiencing a boom. So, after the pandemic, due to new IT technologies and the war in Ukraine, a two-speed economy has emerged, where monetary policy is more difficult, as supporting the weak parts of the economy can go hand in hand with persistent inflation, which is more costly for companies.
Investors try to glean from the Fed’s statements the level of future interest rates (i.e. how much the money – the loans – will cost businesses in the future). It is often the case that the worse the situation in the economy is, the higher share prices rise as investors hope that in response to weak economic data, the Fed will cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. Just yesterday (July 3, 2024) we had an example of this: the ISM index for the service sector collapsed and – excluding the Covid-19 pandemic – fell to its lowest level in almost 15 years. And Wall Street hit record highs in response.
So investors believe this two-speed economy will continue to work. Meanwhile, fiscal spending in the US is unsustainable in the long term and current government bond yields are increasing government spending related to debt, taking away funds for citizen welfare and infrastructure. The US government has to deal with the risk of an economic slowdown or risk letting inflation run high for longer. So the scenario is: whether Democrats or Republicans win, they will have to increase spending (read: inflation), which will cause the Fed to perhaps raise interest rates even higher.
Investors need to understand that the real killer for stocks is recession, not inflation. Yes, I know that the examples, such as the behavior of the stock markets in Turkey or Argentina, clearly show that high inflation need not be a particular problem for equities in the long term. But one day the moment will come: even large companies will not be able to generate higher profits in the face of expensive loans, high taxes and wages. On that day, it will no longer be worth putting money into shares. Even in the USA.
A few centuries ago it was all visible. A peasant – a serf – was obliged to work, say, three days a week for his landlord, and he was obliged to give away a part of the agricultural produce from his household. The amount of work and the amount of the produce were all visible, palpable. If a landlord wanted to extend the time of work done by his serfs for his benefit or take away from the serfs more than was prescribed, the serfs would have rebelled because it was a matter of survival and the maintenance of the standard of living. A serf needed the three remaining days to work for the upkeep of his family; the serf needed to have the rest of the agricultural produce at his disposal for his family to survive. If a serf had been forced to work four rather than three days and give away more than usual from his produce, he would have had less for himself and his family. In other words, working as much as before, he and his family would have had less. The serf would have known who was to blame for this.
Today it is all for all practical purposes invisible. A government prints more and more money and causes inflation. The government does not need to raise taxes. The amount of the tax that is levied on workers may stay the same. Still, due to inflation, labourers or present-day serfs, although they work as much as before, can buy less and less. Of course, sooner or later the present-day serfs notice that they are worse off, but they notice it belatedly and – what’s worse – there is no one person, known to them by name, who is to blame. Yesterday’s serf could have rebelled against his landlord and oftentimes he did; today’s serf can rebel against… inflation, which means against nobody. Yesterday’s serf could have threaten his landlord with a pitchfork – and sometimes it happened. Today’s serf can cast his vote from time to time, to vote out of office some, and vote into office others and, as a result, receive more of the same in terms of economic policy. None of the politicians that currently hold power can stop inflation, even if he wants to. The purchasing power of the present-day serf is constantly diminished, and though the present-day serf is not referred to as serf but, rather, as a citizen with a batch of human rights, he can do nothing about being robbed of the fruits of his work.
Historical record shows that prices used to be stable over decades. Our day-to-day experience teaches us that generally in a longer perspective prices can only rise. If they level off, then but for a short time, while they never fall if viewed over a longer period.
The leftist West is getting a blow back!
– The elections to the European Parliament elevated parties that are maliciously referred to as far-right;
– the war in Ukraine is going badly for the collective West;
– in the United States Donald Trump, maliciously labelled as populist is about to win the presidential election;
– France and the United States are being pushed out of Africa;
– de-dollarization is in progress;
– Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico has survived the assassination (how the EU commissioners would have wished he had died!);
– Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is openly against the European Union’s policy of confrontation with Russia; and now – to top it all
– Turkey – has announced its willingness to join BRICS!
What a mess! Turkey, which boasts the second largest army in NATO, is about to seriously partner among others with… Russia, a country against which the same NATO is waging war!
The West is getting blow after blow after another blow. How ungrateful the world is! The collective West has been meaning to
– save the planet from the man-made climate change;
– extend the human rights by bringing to the forefront homosexuals and lesbians;
– eradicate racism by coercing races and nationalities to share the same ares, towns and villages, schools and factories,
and it turned out that the world has remained blind and deaf to all those advances… Goodness me!
All of which might suggest one serious suspicion: out of impotence and a thirst for vengeance the collective West might be thinking about retaliatory steps. What are these going to be? The leftist West needs to disrupt BRICS, to keep Russia at bay, to stop the march of the “far-right” through the institutions (a historical irony, indeed), to thwart Donald Trump from winning the elections, to preserve the dollar as the instrument of global exploitation and dominance, and so on, and so forth. What are they going to do? A wounded and hitherto domineering animal can be terribly dangerous.
The most important central bank in the world, the US Federal Reserve (FED), recently presented its financial report, which shows that it had a substantial loss of USD 114 billion last year. Why such a large loss for the FED? To explain this, one should first distinguish between two aspects of the central bank’s activities.
Firstly, the FED holds large quantities of US bonds, which in turn yield interest. Of course, in this case, this interest is income for the central bank. It is worth noting that since the FED began buying bonds on a large scale in 2008, interest rates have also risen considerably
Secondly, the Federal Reserve allows commercial banks and various types of funds to hold money in an account at the central bank. At the same time, it pays a certain amount of interest on these funds, which depends primarily on the level of interest rates.
Well, between 2022 and 2023, there was a series of interest rate hikes in the US. Eventually, a level of 5.5% was reached. This meant that the FED had to pay 5.5% interest to banks and funds (and there were a lot of them) that wanted to keep their money in a central bank account.
So on the one hand, the Fed still held a similar amount of bonds in 2023, for which it received interest rates close to the 2022 level (i.e. much lower than this 5.5%). On the other hand, it had to pay much higher interest rates to commercial banks or money market funds. This resulted in the loss.
You may ask: What happens when a central bank suffers a loss? From a purely financial point of view: Nothing significant happens. It is assumed that this loss will be covered by future profits. In the context of a central bank, it is difficult to talk about bankruptcy, especially as central banks can create gigantic amounts of money under the current system.
Gefira is critical of the monetary policy of central banks, but for completely different reasons. No one from the central bankers is commenting on the following questions:
1) Is it fair that the central bank only rescued and wants to rescue selected financial institutions simply because they operate on a large scale?
2) Is it normal for these institutions (especially banks) to hold their reserves at the central bank and safely receive a few percent interest in return?
3) What’s more – is it fair that unprofitable companies are kept alive by the central bank printing money, which in turn makes it more difficult for new companies to enter the market?
4) Is it good for the economy that unprofitable zombie companies are kept afloat in this way, which otherwise – in the real free economy – should have gone bankrupt long ago?
In December last year, we wrote about Javier Milei – the recently elected President of Argentina. Now, with his recent speech in Davos, he has turned the bottom into the top.
To understand what happened and what Milei got himself into, you first need to comprehend what exactly the World Economic Forum (WEF) is and who makes it up. The WEF is the world’s elite: the CEOs of the world’s richest companies (only companies with billions in revenue are invited to the Forum), leading bankers and technology specialists, politicians, representatives of major business organizations, lobbyists, selected intellectuals, journalists and activists of all kinds. The WEF meetings are therefore full of people who use their connections and influence to try to steer the world in a direction that benefits them and not necessarily the majority of people. It’s about power and money, not about a better life for ordinary citizens.
The aforementioned elite meet every year in Davos to present their proposals on how they want to intervene in our lives. They negotiate agreements among themselves and exert pressure on the world’s most influential politicians. In the meantime, of course, there is a lot of empty talk and boring debates about the world’s social and economic problems. The founder of the forum is Klaus The-Great-Reset Schwab, who became known as an advocate of collectivism. He is credited with the famous saying: You will have nothing and be happy.
This is where Milei comes into play. In a place where the ideas of feminism, birth control and increased government intervention in the economy are supported year after year, where the foundations for Agenda 2030 and its associated eco-terrorism were laid, Milei looks the globalists in the eye and dismantles their propaganda simply and vividly by exposing the lies of the globalists.
In many of his interviews and speeches, Milei refers to the so-called culture war. In his view, the causes of Argentina’s decline are cultural problems and moral decay. Among other things, this gives rise to the deep belief that the state is the guarantor for the satisfaction of citizens’ needs. At the same time, the Argentinian president points out that state intervention is counterproductive, as it should only contribute to the opposite when trying to solve a problem.
Here we summarize the most important theses of his speech in Davos:
1. Capitalism creates prosperity and is moral
Socialism leads to impoverishment and is based on violence. Wherever socialism has been introduced, it has brought more harm than good.
“The West is in danger because it has opened itself up to socialist ideas. It was capitalism that liberated humanity from mass poverty and created unimaginable prosperity. (…) In the countries where we should be defending the values of the free market, private property and other institutions of libertarianism, parts of the political and economic establishment – some because of flaws in their theoretical approach, others out of a desire for power – are undermining the foundations of libertarianism by opening the door to socialism and potentially condemning us to poverty, misery and stagnation. It should never be forgotten that socialism is always and everywhere an impoverishing phenomenon that has failed in all countries where it has been tried. It has failed economically as well as socially and culturally. It has also contributed to the deaths of more than 100 million people.”
So capitalism, rather than today’s Western neo-Marxism, is the way to abolish poverty.
2. Socialism is a repressive and unjust system:
“(…) Social justice is neither fair nor beneficial to society. Quite the opposite. It is an inherently unjust idea because it is based on force. It is unjust because the state is financed by taxes and taxes are levied by force. Or would any of you say that you pay taxes of your own free will? In other words, the state finances itself through coercion, and the higher the tax burden, the greater the coercion and the less the freedom. Advocates of social justice assume that the entire economy is a cake that can be shared. Yet, this cake did not fall from the sky. It is wealth created by what Israel Kirzner, for example, calls the process of market discovery. If there is no demand for the goods produced by a company, that company will fail if it does not adapt to the demands of the market. If it produces a good quality product at an attractive price, then it will be successful and produce more because the market is a process of discovery in which the capitalist finds the right direction in the course of his actions. If the state, however, punishes the capitalist for his success and blocks him in this discovery process (through excessive regulation, as in the EU – author’s note), it destroys his motivation, and the result is that he produces less and the pie shrinks, which damages society as a whole. By inhibiting these processes of discovery and making it difficult to adopt what has been discovered, collectivism inhibits the entrepreneur and prevents him from flourishing.”
3. The fight for women’s rights or nature conservation is just a pretext:
“When the socialists realized that the workers were not getting poorer under capitalism, but richer, they changed their strategy. Today, the class struggle between capitalists and workers has been replaced by alleged conflicts between men and women or between man and nature. It is claimed that to save the environment, population growth must be controlled; abortion is promoted”.
4. Public opinion is the result of decades of “brainwashing” in the direction desired by the elites:
“The neo-Marxists have changed public opinion in a long process of taking control of the media, the universities and even international organizations. As everyone here knows, the WEF is one of the latter. Socialist ideas must be fought frontally and vociferously.”
5. Socialists have more than one name:
“There are many varieties of socialism in the broadest sense. Socialists are not only those who call themselves socialists, but also social democrats, Christian democrats, communists, Keynesians, Nazis, nationalists and globalists. They all share a belief in regulation and the state”.
6. The real heroes are the entrepreneurs. The state, on the other hand, is only a threat to freedom:
“The real heroes of society are entrepreneurs. They are creators of wealth who can be proud of making profits by meeting the needs of others. They should not be allied with the state, not even through the WEF. The state is not the solution. The state is the problem. The state is a threat to freedom.”
Since Milei’s speech, the number of views of his video on the official WEF channel has exceeded half a million. Is that a lot? Just look at the other “great speakers” who have lagged far behind. The conversation with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, for example, reached 56,000, the speech by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen 42,000, and the other speeches received even less attention. (As at the end of January 2024)
An interesting case is the speech by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who, as the country’s extreme socialist leader – i.e. in complete opposition to Milei – made a staid appearance and barely reached 12,000 views. In his speech, he talks about everything and nothing. He mentions the current problems and challenges, but offers no solutions. The Spanish Prime Minister’s speech was preceded by congratulations on Spain’s strong economic growth, which the Prime Minister himself also boasted about. So let us quote here the conclusions of one of Spain’s leading independent economists, Daniel Lacalle, who summarizes it as follows: ‘The reality in which Spain finds itself today is different from the one presented by the Spanish government under Pedro Sanchez. The ruling socialists are using the same techniques that the Greek socialists resorted to at the end of the 1990s. Namely, they are increasing public spending and debt to hide the fact that investment and consumption in the country have stalled and exports are falling. Taxes are being increased because/although tax revenues have been falling in recent years. The choice between because and although in the last sentence reveals what you think about the right economic policy.
1% owns 50% of the world’s wealth and there are countries that want to change it. About geopolitical redistribution.
In 1974, the middle class had the highest share of world wealth. Today, it is at its lowest level in 100 years. Within the last 50 years, there has been a gigantic transfer of wealth from the working class to the class of society that owns assets. The latter, elitist stratum owns a disproportionate share of the wealth generated throughout the world and constantly increases it thanks to the central bankers who skillfully cause sometimes recession, sometimes revival of the economy through their interest rate policies and increase or decrease the money supply. These are the waves on which the great ones of the financial world surf and later eat caviar and drink champagne. You know it well that this elitist class is not sitting in Beijing, Jakarta, Rio or Moscow. It’s enough to name two cities and you already know who it’s really about: London and New York.
Erdoğan and the president of Brazil, leaders of ASEAN countries and comrade Xi – they all want to make their middle class bigger and stronger because they know it that the first industrial revolution, which lasted 150 (!) years, was possible only thanks to the creative and hard-working middle class. Therefore, they want to introduce their own monetary system, independent of Anglo-Saxon influences, which
(i) operates fairly,
(ii) is not dependent on a fiat currency like the dollar,
(iii) enables the middle class to accumulate wealth, and
(iv) does not serve to remove politically undesirables from the face of the earth through currency wars or military intervention. Suffice it to mention here how weak the Turkish lira is during Erdoğan’s tenure, or how Saddam Hussein fared because of the oil trade in euros, or Gaddafi because of the attempt to introduce the Pan-African currency, which was supposed to be based on gold.
The latter initiatives of countries seeking to free themselves from dollar domination – be it agreements between Russia and China, the BRICS initiative, agreements among ASEAN countries, and many others – all aim at creating some kind of common currency for these, as they are called in the West, “rapidly developing emerging economies.” This currency, however, should not be a fiat currency, such as the euro, but a currency based on tangible assets, thereby ensuring its purchasing power. It may be digital or classic – one thing is certain: its introduction will mean a huge war against the U.S. dollar. It will mean a war against the COMEX (USA) and LME (London) exchanges, where precious metal prices are now decided. And as we emphasized several times before in analyses in our bulletins: these prices have been suppressed and manipulated for decades by the so-called US bullion banks. So, the elitist class that owns the highest share of the world’s wealth may be in for a treat this September, when the BRICS group’s decisions are to be made. One possible scenario: the BRICS countries may, for example, buy countless futures contracts on precious metals and demand delivery of the physical commodity on the expiration date. Since it is common knowledge that COMEX and LME can physically back up perhaps only 20% of their transactions with physical reserves (the paper gold problem), there would be a collapse similar to the Nixon days.
So will the yuan or a whole new emerging market currency soon become a new world reserve currency? If you look at the chart below, you can see that nothing lasts forever and that the dollar’s days may be numbered.
Major reserve currencies since 1250
After the 2015 introduction of the common currency in Lithuania, much has changed. On the one hand, the euro positively influenced economic growth, as loans became cheaper, resulting in increasing exports and investments, on the other hand, the gap between rich and poor and between the level of living in the cities and in the countryside deepened. Until the beginning of the post-pandemic inflation, prices and salaries increased continuously in the Baltic country, but the latter mainly in the cities. Already between 2015-2019, prices increased by 10%, among others food by 6% and services by 22%. In the post-pandemic period, all Baltic countries are now among those with the highest inflation, with salaries, including those of the richer urbanites, unable to catch up with galloping food prices for a good two years. The ECB’s policy is not helping anyone. If one speaks to a Lithuanian or Latvian on this topic, one hears the following: I used to be able to often invite my girlfriend to the restaurant, now I can hardly afford it (a Latvian truck driver aged around 30). Prices have become European, salaries have not.
However, the argument with growth seems to be a bit misguided. Polish economy with its own currency is growing faster than that of Slovakia and Slovenia, which quickly adopted the euro. Since the introduction of the common currency in the PIGS countries, they systematically lose their growth rate compared to Germany. Contrary to the widespread complaints in the German media about Polish fiscal policy (and the hope that it would be “disciplined” after the introduction of the euro), public debt in Poland is keeping within limits – and this despite the policy of social transfers never seen before. In the euro zone, on the other hand, debt is exploding, despite various formal restrictions. This is true even for the countries that joined the euro without having a public debt problem. The debt has been created over time – precisely in this oh-so-fantastic union. This fact is illustrated in the following graph.
Source: Ameco
The culprit is the crazy idea that one monetary and fiscal policy should fit all countries like a universal recipe (one size fits all). One policy for 24 countries – that can’t work, like a 5 year plan for all Soviets, or one for the so very different regions of China. The same interest rate for the entire Eurozone cannot be effective. It leads to destabilizing and costly imbalances in individual member states, which subsequently spill over to the entire euro area, which cannot develop fast enough vis-à-vis the U.S. and China.
But what’s all the talk about? After all, it’s summer vacation and you want to relax. That’s when we recommend a vacation in Croatia – the latest to enjoy the benefits of the single currency. After the introduction of the euro this year, prices in the once cheap country rose to the level of Austria. The Austrian “Kronenzeitung” even compared the price level with Swiss health resorts. The Croatian newspaper “Slobodnaja Dalmacija” calculates that a kilo of cherries and figs now costs 8 euros – 10 percent more than a year ago. Wholesalers have to pay 5 euros for a kilo of pears, 3 euros for cucumbers and 5 euros for peaches. No wonder tourists are canceling their reservations in the country that depends on them the most in the whole EU (11% of GDP comes from them). Another local newspaper “Jutarnji list” points out the surprisingly high cost of daily rent of a deck chair. On the island of Hvar it costs €40, in Split €35 and in Dubrovnik €33. On Croatian social media, a video of an American tourist is very popular, where she aptly notes that the price of the service remained the same after the currency conversion from kuna to euro. The greed of (small) entrepreneurs is one downside of it all, the other is that the euro is actually always Teuro. So we wish you a nice vacation in Poland.
