A fairy-tale attitude makes us believe that we are one extended human family. Facts teach us that quite the contrary is true. Human national, religious or cultural groups compete and combat each other. This is determined by our biological constitution and history is a long record confirming that such is the case. Only those who live in cloud cuckoo land will set down to bend the natural forces to make them conform to their I-have-a-dream fantasy.

1938 saw the so called Sudetenland crisis which was resolved by means of the Munich Agreement. Czechoslovakia had to cede huge chunks of its territory to Germany. Why did it have to do it? Because those huge chunks were inhabited by Germans. Why were they inhabited by Germans? Did Czechoslovakia conquer though em from Germany? Nay, these territories were parts of ancient, medieval Czech principality, then kingdom. So how did it come about that Germans began to inhabit those provinces? Oh, the answer is simple. They settled them. They kept coming from Germany in search of a better life, fleeing civil war or epidemics; they were invited by Czech princes and kings who thus wanted to have more workforce and raise their income. Before long the land along the northern, western and southern borderline became German for all practical purposes. They naturally wanted to be a part a greater Germany rather than Czechoslovakia. It’s the right of nations to determine where they want to belong, or is it? Continue reading →

EUvsDisinfo is a website set up by EU leaders in 2015 to allegedly fight “Russian propaganda”. Though officially it does not represent the opinion of the EU, it uses its symbols and receives its funding from it, making EUvsDisinfo a de-facto governmental institution that is in charge of deciding what constitutes fake news and what is correct information. As a part of its activity it creates a list of “wrongdoers”. No wonder then that it has evoked associations with the Orwellian Ministry of Truth.

Fast forward 2017, a number of Dutch news sites, De Gelderlander, TPO and GeenStijl, ended up on the list of the naughty for exposing the Nazi-inspired groups in the Maidan revolution, i.e. allegedly aligning themselves with the accusations that Russia often levels when talking about the events in Ukraine. EUvsDisinfo quickly slandered the websites for spreading fake news and echoing Russian propagandists, but they didn’t take into account the historical Dutch love for freedom. Freedom of speech and freedom of press are the cornerstones of Western societies. Continue reading →

I am burning what I used to worship, I am worshipping what I used to burn. That’s the life attitude of an average white European. Since the human brain is infinitely malleable and as such shows an amazing capacity to adapt to all and any new ideas, it will come as no surprise that very frequently yesterday’s embarrassment is given today pride of place whereas yesterday’s shameful acts have become the new normal. The human mind experiences little difficulty calling evil good and good evil; counting light as darkness and darkness as light, putting bitter for sweet and sweet for bitter, to quote a literary classic.

Even the universal symbol of ultimate evil (irrespective of whether you happen to be a believer or not, the symbol remains valid), Lucifer, was paid homage to by Saul Alinsky, Hillary Clinton’s most influential mentor, whose thoughts became the subject of her college thesis. He dedicated his (in)famous “Rules for the Radicals” to Satan,

Lest we forget at least an over-the-shoulder acknowledgment to the very first radical: from all our legends, mythology, and history (and who is to know where mythology leaves off and history begins— or which is which), the first radical known to man who rebelled against the establishment and did it so effectively that he at least won his own kingdom — Lucifer

and nobody raised a brow. Continue reading →

The speed with which the German population is shrinking seems to be even too much for the statisticians of Destatis, the official German bureau of statistics, who posit that by 2060, with a zero level of net immigration, the German population will have declined to 60,2 million. However, our research team has found out that this number is far too optimistic: in 40 years Germany will have a population of 52,6 million people, a considerable 34% drop from the current 81 million inhabitants, and by the end of the century the native German population, the indigenous people without a migration background, will have shrunk even further and be approaching 21,6 million. The explanation that Destatis has mailed us is tantamount to admitting that their projections are unrealistic.

If the German elites succeed in maintaining their population at 80 million, in 2060 the majority of naturalized Germans will have no historical relation to the nation’s ancestors who were once proud subjects of the Holy Roman Empire. Moreover, they will stand in the same relation to Albert Schweitzer, Johann Sebastian Bach, Karl Benz and Friedrich Nietzsche as Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stands to the Byzantine emperors. The excessive numbers of migrants will have altered the German nation forever.

Continue reading →

If production increase does not meet Chinese demand, we expect that the oil price will pass the hundred dollar mark within two years. Chinese oil consumption and US oil production are growing fast. Analysts have a special interest in the US oil production data. The financial media comment every week on the latest data about oil production and consumption from the US Energy Information Office (EIA). There is also a lot of interest in the weekly reports on the number of oil rigs form the analyst firm Baker Hughes. But what about Chinese oil consumption? Oil consumption analysts rely on limited official Chinese data. Oil consumption in China is a big unknown and can be much higher than is estimated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) or the EIA. And what do we know about the Chinese strategic reserves?

The year 2017 highlighted some changes on the global oil market. Firstly, despite the increase in production of this raw material in the United States, its stored reserves are decreasing rapidly on an annual basis. Secondly, a sharp increase in oil imports from the United States to China has contributed to the fact that Beijing has become the world’s largest importer of oil. Thirdly, the forecasts indicate that before 2025 the Middle Kingdom will overtake the US as the largest consumer and will be responsible for 18-20% of the world’s oil consumption. Continue reading →

Analysis of the situation and its potential

PM Theresa May uses the Sergei Skripal case for domestic purposes, by creating an external enemy she wants to bolster her authority. According to our analysis, she cannot make good on her threats, and in the end this new conflict with Russia will only weaken her position.

The attempt at poisoning double spy Sergei Skripal has evoked Great Britain’s response, which in turn raises a number of questions. Skripal was a GRU agent who was convicted in Russia for spying for the British MI6. In 2010 he was released within the framework of a spy exchange and arrived in the United Kingdom. At the beginning of March this year he was attacked with novichok, a paralyzing substance, in the British town of Salisbury and so far has been in a critical condition. The British government accused Russia of using chemical weapons on the territory of a sovereign state. PM Theresa May demanded explanations from Moscow and even went a step further, saying: „Should there be no credible response, we will conclude that this action amounts to an unlawful use of force by the Russian state against the United Kingdom”.As can be seen, London is trying to spark off a diplomatic dispute, and it can be even said that the British PM regards the event as a casus belli. The Kremlin dismisses the accusations as unfounded and warns Great Britain against ill-considered actions.

The Gefira team analyzed a possible scenario of events. Continue reading →

Clouds are gathering: Weidmann will end QE while Macron’s reform will not solve any problem whatsoever. It’ll be the final push for a Eurosceptic Italy, where plans for parallel currencies are popping up. Add Trump’s trade war to the soup and 2020 promises to turn nasty.

It is becoming increasingly clear that at the end of 2019 Jens Weidmann, current President of the Bundesbank, will replace Mario Draghi at the helm of the European Central Bank. The change in terms of economic beliefs will be radical and, combined with the other developing issues in Italy and the US, which will be discussed later in the text, might as well put an end to the misery of the Eurozone.

What does Jens Weidmann believe in?
As a typical post-Weimar German, he believes in strong currency and low inflation. The Financial Times carried an interesting interview with him a few weeks ago,in which the German financier expressed his opposition to everything that Mario Draghi has stood for in the last few years and made known his wish to stop the quantitative easing program and replace it with raised interest rates. What happens when interest rates increase? If they go up too fast, markets crumble. Low interest rates offered for too long have contributed to the subprime mortgages debacle of 2007-8. Continue reading →