Ten years have passed since the first concession to search for shale gas was issued. There were several problems of technological, economic and legal nature, which prevented Poland from becoming potentate in extracting this resource. It may seem that Poland missed its chance. However, monitoring and using new methods of shale gas production together with legal framework implementation, which would encourage the investors, can mark a new chapter in history of the Polish gas industry.

Shale gas in Poland: from euphoria to disappointment
According to the data provided by the Ministry of Environment the first concession to search for shale gas was issued in 2007, and the first drilling took place three years later. In the peak moment in 2012 111 exploration concessions were in force.This year was also marked by the publication of the Polish Geological Institute, in which the deposits were estimated at 346-768bn cubic metres.In 2011 the Polish Prime Minister anticipated that the commercial production of shale gas will have begun after three years.According to the observers, for instance former Minister of Economy Janusz Steinhoff, thanks to shale gas extraction Poland would have an opportunity to become independent of its imports while causing the lowering of prices on the domestic market.

Yet, in 2015 foreign investors started to withdraw and Polish state companies PGNiG and PKN Orlen abandoned their projects last year. Continue reading →

The Gefira team has taken a year to analyze the current state of affairs in the world. The promising role of the BRICS countries has disappeared whilst the US still has the characteristics of a waning power and the European Union failed to become the world’s leader. The global economy cannot operate without a decisive intervention from central banks.
The Western powers did not succeed in bringing democracy to the Middle East and the conflicts with Islamists are intensifying. Nationalism in Europe is on the rise while the global elites keep on foisting a multicultural programme on their respective societies. The increasing uncertainty, the lack of convincing economic recovery and of global leadership is the result of the far-reaching changes in demographics with no comparable historical precedent. The Gefira team is one of the few research groups that understand that the dramatic changes in the world population will have a profound effect on financial markets, emerging countries, distribution of religions, migration and geopolitics. Since populations in Africa and South Asia are exploding whereas those of the developed world are shrinking, Western establishments are opting for a full population replacement in Europe and the USA; conversely, Japan and China will keep their borders shut, and we will see a 60% population decrease there. The reversal of a population decline can take 50 to 100 years. The Gefira will focus on the unprecedented demographic shifts we are experiencing right now; in this issue we take a look at the changes in China whose (especially working) population is about to shrink and whose urbanization will come to a halt within the coming 10 years; we also discuss the strategic role of the Russian and European space programmes. Buy a single issue or become contributor and recieve the next 10 issues.

If you ever want an example of the crisis of credibility of liberalism today, just look at the banking sector. Ever since 2007, the liberal world has been bailing out banks with taxpayers money, leaving profits to shareholders. Adam Smith would say, let the markets handle it, let the markets get rid of inefficient banks. The modern liberal world says, keep the inefficiency going on, let it parasitically drain wealth from society.

What’s even more absurd is that bailouts are often managed by left leaning governments. Yes, the ones who claim they want to redistribute wealth from the rich to the poor have been doing the exact opposite, transferring wealth from the poor to the rich. With the fall of the Soviet Union, central economic planning was discredited, so socialists were forced to look elsewhere for an economic model: they shifted to the center, the so called “third way” of Tony Blair and Bill Clinton No more class struggle, but globalization and financialization became the mantra of the day. Bailouts complete the treason against the working class. Now that financialization is failing, they are desperately trying to keep the casino going. The hypocrisy is never ending: when the working class asks for government intervention against globalization, the “new Left” responds with mockery levelled at the ignorant common man, but when the financial world is calling for help, then government intervention is “necessary”. Continue reading →

Our reporter succeeded in recording in one of Munich’s ale houses a talk that was held between the “chancellor of the refugees” and the brave professor who will not let himself be pigeonholed by the establishment. We’re revealing some of the most interesting parts of the conversation.
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Angela Merkel: If only we succeed educating and integrating the people who have arrived from Syria or other places and found sanctuary in our country, they will surely show us profound gratitude.

Thilo Sarrazin: I’m of the opposite opinion. We have a problem with our education due precisely to Muslim immigrants. They are the only group in Germany that has difficulties mastering our language. They are making up most of the underclass and live on the taxpayer’s money while their children find it hard to comply with the requirements of our educational system.Some 70 or 80 percent of all the problems with migrants in terms of education, employment, redistribution of wealth and crime rates originate with this particular group.

Merkel: I can assure you, all these phenomena are of limited duration. I think if we were more flexible and give up on some of our more demanding requirements, we could employ a sufficient number of German teachers for the refugees. We need to find new solutions, resort to retired teachers and educators or just employ students instead. Continue reading →

The European Union has to understand finally that idealism is simply magnifying human suffering and endangering the security of all parties. There is the realist alternative, which focuses on one’s own interest instead of morality. However, such foreign policy has a highly ethical purpose, i.e. peace and stability. The EU member states have made many mistakes during Syria’s civil war, which decreased their prestige, influence and security. Through the realist lens it’s important to make a serious assessment, which side in the conflict should be supported, and to remember that the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.

The realists don’t refrain from bold proposals and suggestions when it comes to foreign policy. In 2012 Kenneth Waltz argued that Iran should have access to nuclear weapons.Three years later Stephen Walt pointed that in case of ISIS’s victory in Syria, the international community should learn how to live with it’s potential new member.Right now there are voices among realists, according to which the attempts to overthrow the al-Assad government were a mistake.Those examples result from a distinctive view of morality’s place in international relations. Continue reading →

In 1927, Julien Benda denounced ‘’The treason of intellectuals”, or the pursuit of excessive nationalist preferences by his contemporaries over universal values. Ninety years later, roles have been reversed. The intellectual class of the West has a new religion, globalisation, and has completely forsaken the native communities of the West.

If the working class of the West is suffering or if the middle class is shrinking, it does not matter, because globalisation has brought ‘’global economic growth” and the rest of the world is better off. Similarly, when Western intellectuals lose their leveraged bets in the global financial casino, and the whole casino crashes, it is up to the average Westerner to ‘’save the world” at its expense. A cry of horror rises when Donald Trump wants to protect manufacturing jobs instead of ‘’saving the world” from climate change. Westerners do not like Islamic terrorist attacks? That’s too bad for them; investment from Gulf countries that sponsor Wahabism or the Muslim Brotherhood, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, are more important than the lives of Western citizens. The priority should be to let Gulf countries fund mosques and cultural centres and make sure they are not offended whenever one of their own murders Western citizens. Continue reading →