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Chinese 13th Five-Year-Plan Will Not Only Impact The Nation, But The Whole World

The coming years will be crucial for the Chinese economy and decisive for the realization of the „Chinese dream” of a prosperous society. This dream is to be achieved through the 13th Five-Year-Plan. This conglomerate of strategic goals will have a cascading effect; it will affect the global economy as well.

Many see the Five-Year-Plan (FYP) as a Stalinist holdover of China’s old command economy1; disregarding those „Guidelines” is a mistake. Investors should be fully aware of China’s five year economical cycles. China’s economic cycles are dictated by the elite of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and not by the invisible hand of the market.

China is run by the CPC whom does not see a free markets as a goal, but as a mean to improve the wealth of the citizens of China. The website of the CPC states the following ”The Communist Party of China takes Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, the important thought of Three Represents and the Scientific Outlook on Development as its guide to action.”

To understand the importance of the FYP, one must understand exactly what it is. Continue reading →

Ankara’s bomb attack, the next pretext for Erdoğan’s reckless policy threatening Turkey’s and Europe’s security

In the past week Erdoğan has secured personal support from Brussels as Erdoğan is holding the key to the solution of the refugee crisis in Europe,  he is forcing Brussels’ elite to accept his policy. His visit to Brussels cleared the way to grab more power, crack down on press freedom, increase the war against the Kurds and in the process abolish the democracy in Turkey. All of that without losing the support of Brussels’ elite. The bomb attack in Ankara this Saturday, will be the next pretext for Erdoğan to consolidate his power as the ruler of Turkey.

Erdoğan’s visit to Brussels was primarily to discuss the refugee crisis. When Erdoğan left Brussels many were surprised by the fact that both parties agreed to revive Turkish accession process to the European Union, without mentioning the dramatically deteriorating human right situation in Turkey. A clear sign Erdoğan is in the position to blackmail Brussels’ elite as he is holding the key to the current refugee problem. The European leaders are scared to death for the growth of the current refugee crisis in Europe.

Continue reading →

Israel will retaliate, if Iran send troops into Syria

Israel biggest enemy in the Middle East is Hezbollah. The Shia organization Hezbollah is much stronger, well armed and much better trained than the Sunni organization Hamas, in Gaza. Hezbollah is part of the Assad-Iran alliance and are armed by Iran. According to our analyst the Iran-Israel controversy is all about Hezbollah. A Nuclear Iran could arm Hezbollah with impunity. Israel will regard Iran’s armed forces in Syria as covert support for Hezbollah. Iranian troops at Israels Northern border will be unacceptable for the rulers in Tel Aviv, it will provoke a military reaction from Israel.

The situation in Syria is changing rapidly. Starting a full-blown war with the Kurds, Turkey signaled the US and its allies that it is not on the same footing. This summer it seems that the US succeeded in convincing the Turks to join the fight against the so called “terrorists”. Also round this time the US was given permission to use the Incirlik air base in Turkey and Turkey joined in preparing for the fight against the so called “terrorists”. The US was completely surprised when it turned out the Turkish definition of “terrorist” did not square with the US definition. After the announcement of the joined anti-terrorist operations, US diplomats were humiliated and embarrassed as Turkey directly went after the US-European main ally; the Kurd’s. Being completely in line with our expectation, Ankara’s definition of “terrorists” includes the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Democratic Union Party (PYD). Since summer 2014 the Kurd’s could be considered Europe’s and the US’s most valuable ally. It looks like the US planners lack complete understanding of the situation. Continue reading →

Angel Merkels change from Hitlers revenant to the holy mother of the migrants

Is the tide finally turning from fighting the symptoms to treating the cause?

The migrants that are fleeing in from the Balkan, the Middle East and Africa did not come as a huge surprise for the European politicians. For many years now are millions of people fleeing their homes.  But so far, practical enough for Europe, the refugees were seeking rescue in their neighboring countries. Relatively few people succeeded in reaching the northern African countries to cross to Europe from there or to try to make a rush for the fences of Melilla or Ceuta. The EU in its effort to build “Fortress Europe” even went so far as to associate with dictator Muammar Gaddafi, with whom they agreed on building and funding refugee camps in the Libyan Sahara.

In particular Germany’s asylum law reform in 1993 did not intend to fight the cause for flight, but was solely directed towards keeping refugees far from its soil. The concept for the now infamous Dublin Convention, according to which refugees have to seek asylum in the country where they have entered the EU, has been developed in the German Ministry of Interior. Continue reading →

US Shale oil industry will simply vanish

After many years of prosperity, the tough time has come for the US shale industry. Dramatic US oil production decline is inevitable and many shale companies face bankruptcy. Their assets can end up to larger producers, reinforcing market concentration. US energy independence can only be saved by government intervention. US government will remove exports limitation and FED September rate hike suspension is related to the unsustainable debt levels US oil industry is keeping afloat. But that is simply not enough to prevent a collapse of the US oil industry. From our research we learn that cost per barrel declined slightly but decreasing production cost is not enough to compensate for lower oil price. US oil production already declined 400K barrels per day from its April peak. We estimate an other 2 to 3 Million barrels can be wiped out the coming year.

A few months ago, when the oil price rise again before the June crush, the US oil industry seemed to be able to go through the difficult times. „It is too late for OPEC to stop the shale revolution”1, „OPEC can’t stop the shale industry”2 – roared the headlines. However, after last publications of Energy Information Administration (EIA) the OPEC and Saudi Arabia are the only one to triumph. Continue reading →