For some time now the Gefira Team has been keeping track of the demographic processes that are taking place in Europe, especially in its Western part. This time Gefira published a report on Sweden, a well-developed, typical Western state, member of the European Union. The report includes independent calculations, using dedicated demographic software Cerberus 2.0. The report is based on the input that is taken from the official bureaus of statistics.

The Gefira findings based on the official data provided by Statistics Sweden SCB reveal what follows:

1. the fertility rate of native white Swedes is much lower (1,6) than the country’s overall fertility rate (1.9);
2. the Swedish parental system fails to deliver more babies;
3. the number of children with an Islamic name is growing at a fast pace. Since 2010 it has increased by more than 30%, so that now around 8 to 10% of the newborns in Sweden have an Islamic name.
4. the native white Swedish population will be a minority within a maximum of 40 years. The same source shows that 22% of the newborns have a non-Western migration background.

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European leaders are not only unable to counteract the demographic crisis on the Old Continent, but also lose ground in terms of defense. President Trump’s skepticism and reservation about the military ideas of European bureaucrats Ankara’s increasingly aggressive actions towards Cyprus and Greece, and the rapprochement between Turkey and Russia highlight NATO’s weakness on the eve of its summit in Brussels.

Europe stands no chance if forced to face conflict on three fronts. Two of them are of conventional character: on the eastern flank, where there are continuous tensions with Russia, and in the Balkans near the border with Turkey. The third concerns the Mediterranean area, where young and strong men from Africa and Central Asia cross European borders with the support of a thousand people from the continent’s heartland. Europeans are also militarily involved in Afghanistan, Syria and take part in the growing conflict in Mali.

While Europe is losing its allies, Russia and Turkey are looking for alternative directions of cooperation. Turkey has ceased to be a credible member of NATO, and there are growing fears of the US’s non-engagement in European conflicts. The Gefira team compares the capabilities of the North Atlantic Alliance, without taking into account the American and Turkish armed forces, with those of Moscow and Ankara. The conclusion is clear: the European potential is too weak to deal with any dispute on NATO’s eastern and south-eastern borders. Continue reading →

The new Italian government will increase public spending and public debt. It promised to reduce taxes, introduce basic security and reform pensions. Italy’s Northern League’s leader Mateo Salvini surged in the polls and the party is now the strongest in Italy. A couple of years ago it was inconceivable that this regional group could become Italy’s leading political party. We should expect more to come. As the saying goes, it just could not happen till it happened. The financial establishments in North European countries like Germany and the Netherlands assume that the politicians of M5S and Lega Nord will follow the Greek script and will backtrack on their promises. But Mateo Salvini and Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte know that if they do not live up to the expectation of the voters, they will be voted out of office. They are also aware of it that the Italian voter has still another alternative called “CasaPound”, a much more radical, if for the time being insignificant, social and anti-migration movement.

The planned reforms could burden the state budget with an additional 125 billion euros per year. Can the Italian government afford such a thing?

The question is rhetorical when you look at Italy’s growing debt mountain.

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