Investors must understand that Macron has no solution for the French economy

Gefira #19 deals with the insoluble European economic imbalance, President Trump’s Jerusalem announcement as a brilliant move that has little to do with Israel, the revival of Central Europe, and Erdoğan’s grand plan for the Old Continent. The Gefira team predicts the next crisis will occur in 2020 because by that time the European workforce will have been significantly reduced and oil price will be at an all-time high.

Gefira Financial Bullletin #19 is Available now

Hardly any protests were staged against President Macron’s labour reforms, which comes as no surprise because – contrary to the enthusiasm expressed by the media – these are no serious reforms. The labour market is broke beyond repair.

Doing nothing in Western Europe is fivefold more lucrative as working in Central Europe. The difference in wages across the economic bloc is enormous and it is one more reason why further integration is doomed to fail.

France’s President has vowed that he will reinvigorate the economy and make his country competitive again. He started his presidency with the so-called fundamental labour reforms that also aim at giving employment to the huge number of Africans in the Banlieues, which, as is believed, can be solved by putting more money into education.

A study has revealed that French school children aged 9 to 10 have been ranked worst in Europe for their reading skills, a steady decline since 2001. Continue reading →

Vladimir Putin’s international press conference

There are powers that be who thwart President Trump in establishing good relations with Russia.

Why sign accords with North Korea and then withdraw from them?

Mikheil Saakashvili is an insult to the Georgian and Ukrainian nations!

A few days ago an international four-hour press conference – an already established political event in Moscow – took place during which Russia’s President Vladimir Putin answered questions from national and foreign journalists. The many queries concerned a variety of problems, from small, local to international. Of the many topic three stood out as the most important:
(i) Russia’s economy,
(ii) relations with the United States, and
(iii) Ukraine. Continue reading →

Transparent citizens, negative interest rates and other crazy ideas of economic experts

In a March paper, Alexei Kireyev of the International Monetary Fund advises abolishing cash without having the citizens aware of the process. First, large banknotes are to be withdrawn from circulation, next limits on cash transactions are to be imposed, then computerization of the world’s financial system and control of international cash transactions are to be enforced and, finally, private companies are to be encouraged to avoid cash transactions The Macroeconomics of De-Cashing.

Kireyev draws on the ideas of former IMF chief Kenneth Rogoff. In his 2016 book “The Curse of Money”, he advocated the abolition of cash. In his opinion, it would contribute to the fight against crime, tax evasion and the reduction of the grey area. The ECB obliged him and promised not to print the 500 euro note after 2018. The government of India did the same thing: on November 9,2016, it unexpectedly devaluated all 500 and 1000 rupee banknotes over the night – a severe blow against the black economy and corruption. The next day, chaos reigned on India’s streets – crowds of people in front of banks, empty ATMs – everyone wanted to withdraw his money, exchange the old rupees for new, valid ones, and there were even casualties. Continue reading →

World War III in Syria and Iraq (MAP)

For some time now Syria and Iraq have been a place where interests of many players are clashing. The region is being devastated by civil war or a war by proxy, fought by a number of participants, where the borderline between friend and foe is sharp or vague as the case may be.

The military sorties, airstrikes and other activities are taking place on a day-to-day basis. Conflicting pieces of information that can be gleaned from a variety of sources may reflect both the factual status or the propaganda of the powers that be, hidden behind the media outlets. It is not easy to see the forest for the trees, to filter valuable data in this informational noise. Still, our readers deserve to be informed. With all this in mind, the Gefira team has made an effort to present the current situation in Syria and Iraq in an accessible graphic and textual way according to the best of our ability. Continue reading →

All of a sudden, fascists are everywhere in Italy

Headlines were made in Italy a few days ago when a “casual, unidentified photographer” happened to walk in the streets of Florence and had the uncanny ability of taking a snapshot of an inside wall of the Carabinieri barracks that are literally steps away from the city center. The flag was not hanging outside a window, as it was inside the private dormitory of military personnel, but it could be partially visible from the outside as the window was open.

The drums of politically correct outrage (“a nazi flag in a Carabinieri barrack”) started beating in the media, and the frontrunner of this public outcry was the Minister of Defense Roberta Pinotti.

Pinotti is another minister, in this fourth consecutive non-elected government of Italy, for which one comes to wonder (not knowing Italy, of course) how she became head of such a sensitive department. According to her official resumé, she started her political career “from the bottom”, within her party, that is the old Communist Party of Italy (PCI) which then transformed itself into the now Partito Democratico. With a degree in Humanities, she became a teacher in secondary schools, and worked her way up the ladder of local politics in the Genoa district. So much for an extensive and consolidated expertise in military affairs. Continue reading →

What if the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples counted for indigenous Europeans?

Officially, the paper is legally non-binding, so it does not count. What would happen if it did, though? What if it was enshrined in the constitutions of European countries? After all, it was voted by the overwhelming majority of them, with only Ukraine, Russia and Georgia abstaining and according to the United Nations it does “represent the dynamic development of international legal norms and it reflects the commitment of the UN member states to move in certain directions”.

Much of the document deals with the discrimination suffered by indigenous people due to imperialism or colonialism, nonetheless, just like any other declaration of the UN, it has the pretense of universality, it speaks for every indigenous people, thus including indigenous Europeans.

Let’s go through the declaration. Article 8 is of particular interest and it reads: Continue reading →

Disappearing nations the “new normal” in economics

Ten times a year the Gefira Research Team publishes the Gefira Financial Bulletin, which is indispensable to investors and traders. We are the only ones who provide valuable information and in-depth analysis with a particular focus on the demographic impact on the world’s economy.

Investors need to have greater awareness that before long the developed world will have crossed the demographic Rubicon, reaching a point of no return, where economic growth will no longer be possible. Whatever we may choose to apply, whether Trump’s tax plan, Keynesian stimuli or modern money printing, it will not revive the global economy. Why?

Continue reading →